Report: Verizon expected to eat up AT&T iPhone sales, add 14%

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  • Reply 21 of 44
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,643member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TBell View Post


    You do see the name of the website is called Appleinsider right? That implies it is relying on unofficial information.



    On CDMA, much of China and Brazil use CDMA. Two huge markets. Further, it doesn't make sense for Apple to go to Verizon unless it is incorporating as much of Verizon's subscriber base as possible.



    Well aware of the websites name, also very aware of the amount of times this same rumour has been perpetuated in multiple forms.



    My comment was not against Appleinsider it was against the bullshit numbers being thrown about by analysts'.



    Perhaps you feel that such insightful (not) data is useful, personally I think it's a load of crap.



    But you are naturally entitled to your opinion.
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  • Reply 22 of 44
    I don't believe the rumors... they simply don't make sense.

    Let's analyze the facts, they are quite simple indeed.



    1- Apple updates its line of iPhones every year in June, there are reasons for that:

    a) the cost to change a line of production is not worth changing it so often

    b) marketing, Apple builds the hype towards new products and knows that people know when to expect new products : iPhone in June, iPad in February (or January, I can't remember), iPod in September etc...

    c) Apple is very careful not to update major products at the same time, in order to maximize the hype around each update and maintain a constant momentum throughout the year



    2- The iPad is due for an update and bringing the ipad 3G to Verizon is an easy test drive for the iPhone in June, the WIFI ipad is already being sold at Verizon



    3- Starting to sell the iPad at Verizon can bring negotiation strength to Apple to persuade ATT to maintain their exclusivity one more year for the iPhone.



    Let me explain why it is still in Apple interest to stay with ATT:



    I - LTE is not ready yet to be worldwide spread or even nationwide so an LTE iphone is out of the question right now.

    II - non-LTE but 3G CDMA iPhones (or even dual CDMA / GMS-UMTS )would be a step back in technology as CDMA is much more primitive than GMS-UTMS and this is precisely why Verizon is moving so fast toward LTE.

    III - LTE is already available for data only on Verizon with voice not before this summer and by then, the network won't be acceptable for Apple to start deploying the iPhone and expect a good experience on the user side.

    IV - Apple has NEVER gone backwards with technology and innovation, why would they start now ?

    V - the only phone that would make sense technologically would be a tri-system : LTE-UTMS(GMS)-CDMA but radio chip for that do not exist and putting in two chips would increase unreasonably the unit cost.





    Anyway, this is my opinion:

    No iPhone in early 2011

    Yes iPad 3G GMS-UTMS / CDMA for early 2011 (with of course the camera(s) and face time).
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  • Reply 23 of 44
    ATT five year exclusivity contract started only 4 1/2 years ago, why would anyone assume ATT would renounce a good 6 months or even one day of exclusivity ?



    Now I'm sure Apple has ways out of this contract but breaking out of a contract always has a cost, either directly financial, or in the quality of the Apple=ATT partnership, is it worth damaging it further ?
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  • Reply 24 of 44
    desarcdesarc Posts: 642member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by emulator View Post


    Hey Gene Munster, I predict they'll sell 5M. If my numbers will be closer to the fact would you STFU and never give out random numbers again?



    analysts are like sex panther: 60% of the time they're right all the time.
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  • Reply 25 of 44
    "...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."



    How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.
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  • Reply 26 of 44
    MacPromacpro Posts: 19,873member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Clement View Post


    I don't believe the rumors... they simply don't make sense.

    Let's analyze the facts, they are quite simple indeed.



    1- Apple updates its line of iPhones every year in June, there are reasons for that:

    a) the cost to change a line of production is not worth changing it so often

    b) marketing, Apple builds the hype towards new products and knows that people know when to expect new products : iPhone in June, iPad in February (or January, I can't remember), iPod in September etc...

    c) Apple is very careful not to update major products at the same time, in order to maximize the hype around each update and maintain a constant momentum throughout the year



    2- The iPad is due for an update and bringing the ipad 3G to Verizon is an easy test drive for the iPhone in June, the WIFI ipad is already being sold at Verizon



    3- Starting to sell the iPad at Verizon can bring negotiation strength to Apple to persuade ATT to maintain their exclusivity one more year for the iPhone.



    Let me explain why it is still in Apple interest to stay with ATT:



    I - LTE is not ready yet to be worldwide spread or even nationwide so an LTE iphone is out of the question right now.

    II - non-LTE but 3G CDMA iPhones (or even dual CDMA / GMS-UMTS )would be a step back in technology as CDMA is much more primitive than GMS-UTMS and this is precisely why Verizon is moving so fast toward LTE.

    III - LTE is already available for data only on Verizon with voice not before this summer and by then, the network won't be acceptable for Apple to start deploying the iPhone and expect a good experience on the user side.

    IV - Apple has NEVER gone backwards with technology and innovation, why would they start now ?

    V - the only phone that would make sense technologically would be a tri-system : LTE-UTMS(GMS)-CDMA but radio chip for that do not exist and putting in two chips would increase unreasonably the unit cost.





    Anyway, this is my opinion:

    No iPhone in early 2011

    Yes iPad 3G GMS-UTMS / CDMA for early 2011 (with of course the camera(s) and face time).



    I agree Apple simply won't release an iPhone that is less capable, it's not in their DNA. So the only way there can be a Verizon iPhone is if they have circumvented the limitations somehow to allow full functionality. I have no clue if that can be done via new chips or dual chips etc. or if Verizon have a new network ready to go. Again, IMHO a reduced functionality iPhone will never happen.
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  • Reply 27 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by desarc View Post


    analysts are like sex panther: 60% of the time they're right all the time.



    LOL specially Gene Munster, always right except when he is wrong (most of the time), being overly optimistic and giving way too much value to rumors.



    Gene's judgment is clouded by his enthusiasm (that I share) on Apple products and on the company itself.



    Yaayyyy !!!! LOVE APPLE
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  • Reply 28 of 44
    Unsubstantiated Guesstimate being made here.



    There are too many variables which nobody is certain about yet to make these conclusions. Among the unknown variables are:



    1. Data Pricing

    2. Verizon IPHONE to be 3G or LTE ?

    3. Feature bundle

    etc.





    Once the complete story is available the numbers will be clearer. If everything is comprable to ATT then Verizon may do better than Munster thinks.
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  • Reply 29 of 44
    MacPromacpro Posts: 19,873member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by estolinski View Post


    "...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."



    How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.



    I think the writer meant people actually leaving AT&T to go to Verizon, as in a lost customer they already had, when he said 'at the expense of AT&T' rather than how you mean it i.e. a lost sale to AT&T. If a fully functioning iPhone with at least the same performance if not better were available from Verizon I'd switch two accounts simply because I have FiOS so everything else here is Verizon already and I am hoping there will be some incentives to aggregate services. I also hope it would improve signals in our summer residence in the White Mountains of northern New Hampshire where sadly AT&T is virtually missing in action.
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  • Reply 30 of 44
    I think that if iPhone was to come to Verizon, there would be TONS more phone sold than what Gene thinks.

    Everyone I know or who have met who have Verizon want an iPhone.

    Except one programmer buddy that loves to think that he is more 'open' than Apple (always having problems with his HTC though).

    There will be those that switch. Not me. I was on Verizon before I bought the original iPhone and haven't looked back!

    There is humongous pent up demand for a Verizon iPhone.
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  • Reply 31 of 44
    I think Apple needs to get out of their exclusivity deal as soon as possible to head off the threat of Android, and they know it. As somebody else here pointed out recently, they have seen that elsewhere they sell a lot more phones when they are available on multiple carriers, and of course once somebody buys into a platform and carrier, they are likely to stay with it for at least a couple of years. Also, with new Android phones coming out from multiple manufacturers in every season of the year, Apple may not want to be rigid about only updating once a year if they don't have to.



    I know a lot of people who didn't get an iPhone specifically because it wasn't on Verizon--they all ended up with Android, which, being their first proper smartphone, seems like a gift from God, and it will be harder to get them to buy iPhones now.



    I think it's also interesting to note that if you look at the group of people who don't already own a smartphone, a lot more of them are on Verizon than AT&T, so I would expect a lot of new iPhone users to come from this group.



    I wouldn't be surprised if the elusive white iPhone were exclusive to Verizon, which would help explain the mystery surrounding its release (or lack thereof). I just hope it doesn't have their incredibly ugly logo on it.
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  • Reply 32 of 44
    No simultaneous voice and data is a permanent deal killer. I know that will happen, just not sure when.
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  • Reply 33 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by estolinski View Post


    "...with Verizon's sales largely coming at the expense of AT&T."



    How else would Verizon selling an iPhone affect AT&T? Being that AT&T is the exclusive carrier in the US now and Verizon will be the first alternative - OF COURSE it will be at the expense of AT&T. If not AT&T, then Verizon. NO DUH! Thank you Capt. Obvious! Analysts are useless once again.



    Perhaps you should calm down and realize that some people use their iPhones on T-Mobile, but would gladly switch to Verizon.
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  • Reply 34 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by boeyc15 View Post


    Hmmm, seems a better title to this article would be - Analyst don't have a freak'n clue how many iPhones Verizon will(would?) sell.

    OR

    Industry analyst spout gibberish about potential Verizon iPhone sales.

    OR

    Analyst refer to magic 8 ball regarding potential Verizon iPhone sales numbers.



    Meh, sorry for my snooty wasted comment, IMO the article did not convey any real information or news except for the lack of consensus of projected Verizon iPhone sales. I'll go back to sleep now.



    They are basing their entire analysis on Apple even actually bringing the iPhone to Verizon.



    Apple's big CDMA customers will be in China, long before Steve targets Verizon.



    http://www.gizchina.com/2010/10/17/d...-coming-china/



    http://thenextweb.com/asia/2010/10/2...tion-in-china/



    They are assuming Verizon is part of the deal.



    China Telecom dwarfs Verizon. Apple wants penetration into China to be as broad and deep as possible. That way they can drive their entire product lines into hundreds of potentially new consumers.



    Apple doesn't have to convince Verizon customers to buy a Mac or iPad or whatever.



    Verizon got the iPad last.



    A dual mode Chinese unified model has the potential of making far greater ROI for Apple by offering this one phone to > 750 million potential subscribers.



    I'd expect Apple to target China before Verizon.



    From Electronista:

    http://www.electronista.com/articles...source.claims/



    Quote:

    The Verizon iPhone will be a hybrid LTE/CDMA device, launching shortly after Christmas, a source claims. Described only as "familiar with the matter," the source elaborates that Verizon held management training sessions for iPhone sales last week, and allegedly had LTE-ready models available for hands-on use. The Verizon iPhone in fact said to have been finished for some time, already in shipment to company warehouses.



    The warehouse stockpiling is believed to be part of an agreement with Apple to control security. Verizon is at the moment said to be avoiding shipping units to third-party retailers in order to prevent leaks. Once an announcement is made though, the carrier will then push devices out to channels en masse.



    The carrier's marketing is expected to concentrate on its recently-launched LTE network, which allows for much faster data than is possible with current 3G networks. The CDMA support is considered essential, however, since LTE is so far only running in 38 cities and 60 airports. Some other LTE-capable phones shipping in early 2011 include the HTC Incredible HD.



    The source suggests that Apple's CEO, Steve Jobs, is upset about the progress of LTE deployment so far. The company is as a result thought to be "helping" carriers with LTE expansion, although it may be too late. Apple is said to have wanted to make the iPhone 5 an LTE-only device, but neither AT&T nor Verizon are expected to have widespread networks finished by the summer.



    Not having an LTE roll out for Verizon at a rate Apple wants would seem to be that they will target CDMA for China first and LTE later for the USA.



    Verizon's real LTE rollout, as well as AT&T's, won't be in real effect until 2012.



    China Mobile is targeting 2011 for test beds in densely populated cities but not a full-scale roll out until 2012, as well.



    http://www.mobilebusinessbriefing.co...phone-partners



    Quote:

    China Mobile planning to speed LTE launch; seeking Ophone partners



    Published: Tuesday 14 December 2010

    Region: Asia Pacific

    Tags: China Mobile



    China Mobile is reportedly considering the launch of commercial TD-LTE services in 2012, with large-scale pilots set to take place next year, in order to meet the growing demand for mobile data connectivity. According to China Daily, Bill Huang (pictured), general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute, said that trials will take place in cities on the Pearl and Yangtze river deltas, although the final decision will be up to the country?s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. It was reported last month that China Mobile was planning TD-LTE pilots in six cities - Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Shenzhen and Xiamen - but was waiting for the regulatory green-light. China Mobile is also continuing the build-out of its TD-SCDMA 3G network, in order to serve data customers, and is looking to WiFi to meet growing demand in the near-term. China Daily also notes that some international operators, such as Poland?s Aero2, also have aggressive TD-LTE plans, expressing an interest in launching services during 2011.



    Separately, IDG News Service says that China Mobile is planning the creation of an ?innovation alliance? intended to drive development for its Ophone device operating system. The platform is a customised version of Google?s Android, and it has been reported that more than 30 devices based on the OS will reach the market during 2011, from a mix of domestic and international vendors including Asus, Acer, Huawei, Lenovo, LG Electronics, Motorola, Samsung, Sony Ericsson and ZTE. It was not revealed what form the new alliance will take, although it was said to have been a year in the planning.



    If LTE isn't going to be ready for nation-wide deployment I think people need to rethink exactly what will be supported in the iPhone 5 and if it will just be a firmware update to flip the switch when LTE is live in large deployments.



    http://www.telecompaper.com/news/chi...-tests-in-2011



    Quote:

    News

    China Mobile plans TD-LTE commercial tests in 2011

    Wednesday 15 December 2010 | 10:30 CET



    China Mobile will start its first commercial tests of TD-LTE in 2011. Bill Huang, general manager of the China Mobile Research Institute, told China Daily that TD-LTE, the next-generation telecommunication standard that China Mobile is promoting, will see large-scale development in 2011. Full-scale commercial tests of TD-LTE will first be conducted in cities mainly in the Pearl and Yangtze river deltas, Huang said on the sidelines of the 2010 International Mobile Internet Conference in Beijing. However, he declined to reveal the number and names of those cities, saying it was up to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to make a decision. Wang Jianzhou, chairman of China Mobile, said the operator's strategy in facing the challenges of the mobile internet era was to accelerate the expansion of the 3G network, start commercial usage of TD-LTE and increase WLAN coverage. Increased data traffic requires an expanded network, he continued, and China Mobile will build more than 200,000 TD-SCDMA base stations by the end of this year, allowing its network to cover all cities across China.



    WLAN will be good for the iPad in large deployments, without the need for data plan.



    The big pie is CHINA.
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  • Reply 35 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    If LTE isn't going to be ready for nation-wide deployment I think people need to rethink exactly what will be supported in the iPhone 5 and if it will just be a firmware update to flip the switch when LTE is live in large deployments.



    Read "ships with a GSM/LTE chip that teardowns reveal instantly and jailbreakers activate immediately", right?
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  • Reply 36 of 44
    Factors to consider:

    1) pent up demand from Verizon customers.

    2) pent up demand from AT&T customers who want to switch.

    3) pent up demand from people on Sprint/Tmobile who want an iPhone but not on AT&T.

    4) pent up demand for white iPhone.

    5) verizon's huge base of business customers.
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  • Reply 37 of 44
    nhtnht Posts: 4,522member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jman_in_NYC View Post


    NTSC fudged the color to make it work though.. or is that colour?



    It's not called Never Twice the Same Color for no reason.



    Then again SECAM was Something Exceedingly Contrary to the American Method and PAL is People Are Lavender.
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  • Reply 38 of 44
    So, what ever happened to Apple's 5-year exclusive agreement with AT&T? How can they get out of this contract?
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  • Reply 39 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by justbobf View Post


    So, what ever happened to Apple's 5-year exclusive agreement with AT&T? How can they get out of this contract?



    It was never 5
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  • Reply 40 of 44
    Bogus and shortsighted. There are tons of verizon customers who won't even consider the iPhone since it's not on verizon. iPhone on verizon means a boatload of phone upgrades, not just AT&T hold-outs.
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