If I listed to even the analysts at my broker- I'd have a lot less money. I was their best performing client the lat two years by virtue of simply hanging onto my apple stock.
I think anyone trying to day trade now a days are fools.
I received a call last week from Chase, where one of my main accounts is. He wanted to know if I were interested in a managed account. Er, no.
There is nothing new or unique to AAPL about that observation. That's always been the nature of the stock market.
That's why equities are not a game for casual investors. You either do your research and watch ALL factors, or grab an index fund and stick with that.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Yes, I've noticed that. We've had a few analysts statements that drove prices down a few times over that time. But if Apple has a good quarter, I think it will bounce. We're at new highs for the stock as it is. I thought it had risen a bit too much for a while previously anyway. As I'm long, I don't worry about the shorter ups and downs. Even though some are saying that a Verizon phone is baked into the stock price, I don't believe that to be entirely true.
In the last couple of weeks we've also seen a few fairly sizable upgrades in target prices, including today, which has moved the stock price virtually not at all. And not a single lowering of target price has occurred. Yet, the DJI has actually outperformed AAPL over the last two months, and don't even compare it to the NASDAQ composite, unless you want to feel a bit queasy. I won't pretend to know what's going on or how long it will last, but I really don't like the looks of this chart.
Um, it sat at $100 for a few months and then began an astounding climb-back to that target in about a year. That's REALLY fast (indicating how spoiled AAPL holders have become.)
Wu was spot on (at least in that case.)
No... he dropped the number to $125 before it started to climb, IIRC. Could be mixing him up with Katie Huberty's nonsense.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
In the last couple of weeks we've also seen a few fairly sizable upgrades in target prices, including today, which has moved the stock price virtually not at all. And not a single lowering of target price has occurred. Yet, the DJI has actually outperformed AAPL over the last two months, and don't even compare it to the NASDAQ composite, unless you want to feel a bit queasy. I won't pretend to know what's going on or how long it will last, but I really don't like the looks of this chart.
Didn't one of the big ones take it off their preferred list the other day, and then it went down? Don't remember who that was offhand. The good thing is that Apple IS hitting new highs. These other companies, except for IBM, have just been making up some lost time.
What I don't understand, is why MS has been rising lately, with all the negativity going on around them, including one big downgrade.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
Maybe you have forgotten how absurdly wrong the analysts were during the majority of the last decade, but I haven't.
Didn't one of the big ones take it off their preferred list the other day, and then it went down? Don't remember who that was offhand. The good thing is that Apple IS hitting new highs. These other companies, except for IBM, have just been making up some lost time.
What I don't understand, is why MS has been rising lately, with all the negativity going on around them, including one big downgrade.
One just removed it from their "special picks" list, or some silly thing like that. They didn't change their investment recommendations, just moved the spotlight a bit in another direction. In fact AAPL has been drifting for two months now. When the NASDAQ composite rises three times faster than AAPL over a pretty substantial period of time, then something has changed, at least for now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity
Maybe you have forgotten how absurdly wrong the analysts were during the majority of the last decade, but I haven't.
This accusation is way too generalized. And the sea is too wet?
One just removed it from their "special picks" list, or some silly thing like that. They didn't change their investment recommendations, just moved the spotlight a bit in another direction. In fact AAPL has been drifting for two months now. When the NASDAQ composite rises three times faster than AAPL over a pretty substantial period of time, then something has changed, at least for
As I said, it's happened before. I'm not concerned.
I can't remember when, at least when there wasn't any bad news to drive the movement. But if you're bored and looking for something to do....
This is the movement of the stock (apple's) as compared to the "big picture". It's stalled before, this year, and went down too. But the trend has been upwards, which is why it's up a fair amount more than the market. I just don't think a bit of a stall is important. It's not even the worst one. More a slowing down for a short while.
I just tried the links. You have to set them for a years trend yourself. It reverts back to five days in the link.
This is the movement of the stock (apple's) as compared to the "big picture". It's stalled before, this year, and went down too. But the trend has been upwards, which is why it's up a fair amount more than the market. I just don't think a bit of a stall is important. It's not even the worst one. More a slowing down for a short while.
I guess I was bored a little this evening and decided to look at rolling two-month segments back to the end of 2008, AAPL vs. NASDAQ composite. I found two other two-month periods where AAPL underperformed the index, 11-2009 to 1-2010, in an up market (AAPL flat, NAS up 4%); then 6-2010 to 8-2010, in a down market (AAPL down 7%, NAS down 5.5%). In round numbers. I measured from the middles of the months, if you're feeling bored too and want to check my work. For the rest of the periods, few were even close, with AAPL strongly outperforming the index in nearly every one. So you could be right, it might just be a stall or a pause. I hope you're right.
As for MSFT, that's a mystery, but I confess to not following Microsoft earnings reports very closely. Still if you asked anyone who hadn't already looked, which of these stocks were the better investment over the last two months, few would answer correctly.
More curious factoids: During the three periods where the NAS has outperformed AAPL, MSFT has also outperformed AAPL.
Comments
who the hell listens to analysts anyways?
If I listed to even the analysts at my broker- I'd have a lot less money. I was their best performing client the lat two years by virtue of simply hanging onto my apple stock.
I think anyone trying to day trade now a days are fools.
I received a call last week from Chase, where one of my main accounts is. He wanted to know if I were interested in a managed account. Er, no.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10949...ed&cm_ite=Feed
Dude, 420, that's like, the coolest price ever.
500 has a ring to it
There is nothing new or unique to AAPL about that observation. That's always been the nature of the stock market.
That's why equities are not a game for casual investors. You either do your research and watch ALL factors, or grab an index fund and stick with that.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
Yes, I've noticed that. We've had a few analysts statements that drove prices down a few times over that time. But if Apple has a good quarter, I think it will bounce. We're at new highs for the stock as it is. I thought it had risen a bit too much for a while previously anyway. As I'm long, I don't worry about the shorter ups and downs. Even though some are saying that a Verizon phone is baked into the stock price, I don't believe that to be entirely true.
In the last couple of weeks we've also seen a few fairly sizable upgrades in target prices, including today, which has moved the stock price virtually not at all. And not a single lowering of target price has occurred. Yet, the DJI has actually outperformed AAPL over the last two months, and don't even compare it to the NASDAQ composite, unless you want to feel a bit queasy. I won't pretend to know what's going on or how long it will last, but I really don't like the looks of this chart.
Um, it sat at $100 for a few months and then began an astounding climb-back to that target in about a year. That's REALLY fast (indicating how spoiled AAPL holders have become.)
Wu was spot on (at least in that case.)
No... he dropped the number to $125 before it started to climb, IIRC. Could be mixing him up with Katie Huberty's nonsense.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
In the last couple of weeks we've also seen a few fairly sizable upgrades in target prices, including today, which has moved the stock price virtually not at all. And not a single lowering of target price has occurred. Yet, the DJI has actually outperformed AAPL over the last two months, and don't even compare it to the NASDAQ composite, unless you want to feel a bit queasy. I won't pretend to know what's going on or how long it will last, but I really don't like the looks of this chart.
Didn't one of the big ones take it off their preferred list the other day, and then it went down? Don't remember who that was offhand. The good thing is that Apple IS hitting new highs. These other companies, except for IBM, have just been making up some lost time.
What I don't understand, is why MS has been rising lately, with all the negativity going on around them, including one big downgrade.
Right. But we constantly hear criticisms on these board about how "clueless" any given AAPL analyst is because they got some forecast wrong. A better understanding of the constraints and limitations of forecasting seems to be in order.
Maybe you have forgotten how absurdly wrong the analysts were during the majority of the last decade, but I haven't.
Dude, 420, that's like, the coolest price ever.
You forgot to say
Didn't one of the big ones take it off their preferred list the other day, and then it went down? Don't remember who that was offhand. The good thing is that Apple IS hitting new highs. These other companies, except for IBM, have just been making up some lost time.
What I don't understand, is why MS has been rising lately, with all the negativity going on around them, including one big downgrade.
One just removed it from their "special picks" list, or some silly thing like that. They didn't change their investment recommendations, just moved the spotlight a bit in another direction. In fact AAPL has been drifting for two months now. When the NASDAQ composite rises three times faster than AAPL over a pretty substantial period of time, then something has changed, at least for now.
Maybe you have forgotten how absurdly wrong the analysts were during the majority of the last decade, but I haven't.
This accusation is way too generalized. And the sea is too wet?
One just removed it from their "special picks" list, or some silly thing like that. They didn't change their investment recommendations, just moved the spotlight a bit in another direction. In fact AAPL has been drifting for two months now. When the NASDAQ composite rises three times faster than AAPL over a pretty substantial period of time, then something has changed, at least for
As I said, it's happened before. I'm not concerned.
As I said, it's happened before. I'm not concerned.
I can't remember when, at least when there wasn't any bad news to drive the movement. But if you're bored and looking for something to do....
I received a call last week from Chase, where one of my main accounts is. He wanted to know if I were interested in a managed account. Er, no.
Managed accounts are the biggest rip off in history.
citi tries to charge $600 commission per trade. Including if you do an Internet trade. Pfft! what a joke.
Only a sucker would pay that.
I can't remember when, at least when there wasn't any bad news to drive the movement. But if you're bored and looking for something to do....
This is the movement of the stock (apple's) as compared to the "big picture". It's stalled before, this year, and went down too. But the trend has been upwards, which is why it's up a fair amount more than the market. I just don't think a bit of a stall is important. It's not even the worst one. More a slowing down for a short while.
I just tried the links. You have to set them for a years trend yourself. It reverts back to five days in the link.
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=AAPL
Microsoft's is more of a puzzle. Bad news all around so far, except for some good XBox news.
What is this overall trend since September coming from?
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=MSFT
This is the movement of the stock (apple's) as compared to the "big picture". It's stalled before, this year, and went down too. But the trend has been upwards, which is why it's up a fair amount more than the market. I just don't think a bit of a stall is important. It's not even the worst one. More a slowing down for a short while.
I guess I was bored a little this evening and decided to look at rolling two-month segments back to the end of 2008, AAPL vs. NASDAQ composite. I found two other two-month periods where AAPL underperformed the index, 11-2009 to 1-2010, in an up market (AAPL flat, NAS up 4%); then 6-2010 to 8-2010, in a down market (AAPL down 7%, NAS down 5.5%). In round numbers. I measured from the middles of the months, if you're feeling bored too and want to check my work. For the rest of the periods, few were even close, with AAPL strongly outperforming the index in nearly every one. So you could be right, it might just be a stall or a pause. I hope you're right.
As for MSFT, that's a mystery, but I confess to not following Microsoft earnings reports very closely. Still if you asked anyone who hadn't already looked, which of these stocks were the better investment over the last two months, few would answer correctly.
More curious factoids: During the three periods where the NAS has outperformed AAPL, MSFT has also outperformed AAPL.