I think both views are right; in the short term, its for panels on mobile gadgets. In the long term, its for an apple branded TV set.
There are lots of good reasons for Apple to make a TV. Arguments against this are in fact, the same kinds of arguments against apple getting into music, or cell phones, or any number of things that a few years before they got into it, people said they would never do it. There's no profit margin on them, too competitive, etc etc. All predictions that always prove wrong.
I think the main thing people need to realize is this is another area of electronics that enjoy near-universal market penetration and is in desperate need of reinvention. The cable TV monopoly is old, expensive, and needs to be gotten rid of. Lots and lots of companies are trying, with an extremely wide range of differing products (apple included), none of them are having any real success. This market is fragmented and wanting, no solution is quite right.
Apps will be what this is all about. A real Apple branded TV will basically be a stealth computer, like the iOS devices are. How do we get to the future where the large panel display (lets not even call it TV anymore, since 'TV' will really only be one part of its total functionality, not unlike how music is really only a small part of what an ipod touch does) is this big ubiquitous device capable of surfing and manipulating data as well as enjoying entertainment?
You need lots of things to make this work. You need a vibrant developer community, with an excellent distribution model. Exactly what the iOS platform provides. If apple releases a new form factor of iOS device, like they did with the iPad, developers are ready and waiting to create custom apps just for it.
You need a robust cloud network, because whatever an Apple display in your home is going to be, it'll probably be really thin, simple and not too big on local storage and calculation. We know Apple is building this.
They're pushing hard on video conferencing, now with facetime, as they have for years. This would go great with a TV.
There's always the possibility they'll use cameras (like kinect) to control the display and apps with motion sensing, but I don't think Apple is heading this way, at least not in the short term. The technology is a little flaky, questionable, not quite ready for primetime just yet (at least not to the fit and finish polished standards that apple would tout). I think they'll continue with what they've been doing already, where all their R&D has gone, that is, remote control surfaces. A glass surface, multitouch, that serves as a remote control. As I said, already developed and proven working to some extent, more comfortable and practical than waving your arms around in the air, but can be refined and improved further, and really brought into focus with a product like this.
I think they can bring alot of Apple style clarity to the market. Even the TV manufacturers are a mess if you look at it objectively. Right now if you go to LG's website (for example) they offer no less than 30 different TV's. Plasmas, LED-LCD's, 3D sets of every size, refresh rate and so on. Some have apps built in and some don't. Some have wifi and some don't. This is a fragmented, messy market. How can we expect TV's as computers to gain traction when the TV makers themselves are completely schizophrenic in their offerings, and you have to be a videophile to discern what the right TV is?
I see them doing something along the lines of offering 3 very clear models, a 40", a 50", and 60" (maybe even just 1 model to start). No 'different kinds' or feature sets, just one panel type (whatever Jobs determines looks best and is thinnest at the time, probably LED LCD) and one feature set. It will run apps and have access to the app store. It will have a camera and possibly other sensors. I think they'll skip over 3D sets because its the wrong technology (at least today), because it requires glasses, and that's messy. Now if/when auto-stereoscopic takes off, that's something they may get into.
It won't be for everyone, and that will cause complaints. But was the 1st gen ipod for everyone? Is the iPad for everyone? Since when does Apple make a device that's for everyone? They don't, they target themselves and their own interests, and branch out over time and as it makes sense for them to do.
The price probably will demand a premium, at least to start, but what the user gets is really a new kind of computer form factor. And even though it won't be exactly new, like the iPad wasn't exactly new, it will bring clarity and focus to a crappy market that needs alot of help. And Apple will probably sell tons of them. And if Sony, Toshiba and LG aren't worried now, they better be.
The company that needs to be most worried about this is MS. Cause every time Apple successfully delivers another iOS device into a new market, its another stealth computer (post-pc device, if you must) that is ultimately and really a windows PC replacement. I don't think they see this yet (maybe they do with phones and tablets, but haven't figured it out with tv sets yet) and will literally have no foothold in a mass consumer computer and electronics devices future.
Comments
You can't make a call with an iPad dumba$$
Recipe: How to make Phone Calls with iPad while Traveling
Ingredients:
iPad
Airport Express plugged in to hotel room LAN
Skype software for iPad
Skype Out account (for dialing regular phones)
Headphones with microphone (mine's a B+W-P5, the ones UK Apple Stores use for all demos)
Method:
Plug in all items and check internet connectivity
Look up Skype contact or dial regular phone number
Wait for other end to answer
Talk
Have fun while saving money, dude, espesh if you're calling international!
There are lots of good reasons for Apple to make a TV. Arguments against this are in fact, the same kinds of arguments against apple getting into music, or cell phones, or any number of things that a few years before they got into it, people said they would never do it. There's no profit margin on them, too competitive, etc etc. All predictions that always prove wrong.
I think the main thing people need to realize is this is another area of electronics that enjoy near-universal market penetration and is in desperate need of reinvention. The cable TV monopoly is old, expensive, and needs to be gotten rid of. Lots and lots of companies are trying, with an extremely wide range of differing products (apple included), none of them are having any real success. This market is fragmented and wanting, no solution is quite right.
Apps will be what this is all about. A real Apple branded TV will basically be a stealth computer, like the iOS devices are. How do we get to the future where the large panel display (lets not even call it TV anymore, since 'TV' will really only be one part of its total functionality, not unlike how music is really only a small part of what an ipod touch does) is this big ubiquitous device capable of surfing and manipulating data as well as enjoying entertainment?
You need lots of things to make this work. You need a vibrant developer community, with an excellent distribution model. Exactly what the iOS platform provides. If apple releases a new form factor of iOS device, like they did with the iPad, developers are ready and waiting to create custom apps just for it.
You need a robust cloud network, because whatever an Apple display in your home is going to be, it'll probably be really thin, simple and not too big on local storage and calculation. We know Apple is building this.
They're pushing hard on video conferencing, now with facetime, as they have for years. This would go great with a TV.
There's always the possibility they'll use cameras (like kinect) to control the display and apps with motion sensing, but I don't think Apple is heading this way, at least not in the short term. The technology is a little flaky, questionable, not quite ready for primetime just yet (at least not to the fit and finish polished standards that apple would tout). I think they'll continue with what they've been doing already, where all their R&D has gone, that is, remote control surfaces. A glass surface, multitouch, that serves as a remote control. As I said, already developed and proven working to some extent, more comfortable and practical than waving your arms around in the air, but can be refined and improved further, and really brought into focus with a product like this.
I think they can bring alot of Apple style clarity to the market. Even the TV manufacturers are a mess if you look at it objectively. Right now if you go to LG's website (for example) they offer no less than 30 different TV's. Plasmas, LED-LCD's, 3D sets of every size, refresh rate and so on. Some have apps built in and some don't. Some have wifi and some don't. This is a fragmented, messy market. How can we expect TV's as computers to gain traction when the TV makers themselves are completely schizophrenic in their offerings, and you have to be a videophile to discern what the right TV is?
I see them doing something along the lines of offering 3 very clear models, a 40", a 50", and 60" (maybe even just 1 model to start). No 'different kinds' or feature sets, just one panel type (whatever Jobs determines looks best and is thinnest at the time, probably LED LCD) and one feature set. It will run apps and have access to the app store. It will have a camera and possibly other sensors. I think they'll skip over 3D sets because its the wrong technology (at least today), because it requires glasses, and that's messy. Now if/when auto-stereoscopic takes off, that's something they may get into.
It won't be for everyone, and that will cause complaints. But was the 1st gen ipod for everyone? Is the iPad for everyone? Since when does Apple make a device that's for everyone? They don't, they target themselves and their own interests, and branch out over time and as it makes sense for them to do.
The price probably will demand a premium, at least to start, but what the user gets is really a new kind of computer form factor. And even though it won't be exactly new, like the iPad wasn't exactly new, it will bring clarity and focus to a crappy market that needs alot of help. And Apple will probably sell tons of them. And if Sony, Toshiba and LG aren't worried now, they better be.
The company that needs to be most worried about this is MS. Cause every time Apple successfully delivers another iOS device into a new market, its another stealth computer (post-pc device, if you must) that is ultimately and really a windows PC replacement. I don't think they see this yet (maybe they do with phones and tablets, but haven't figured it out with tv sets yet) and will literally have no foothold in a mass consumer computer and electronics devices future.
How's that for a first post?