Apple to report fiscal first-quarter 2011 results Jan. 18

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 57
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,252member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Milmoss is just another fellow with "selective logic".



    I do understand where he's coming from though. apple reached a high about then, and stayed there for a short while. Then, with the market as a whole, dropped. But as the market rose afterwards, Apple's stock was nudging behind, rather than leading. We can see that with the 3 month rolling averages.
  • Reply 22 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post


    The smartphone market is still growing.



    Very true, but a lot of growth is now coming from Android for now, it caught up to the iOS marketshare... though who knows, android has serious problems now, that will only grow



    also what does a hacked iOS count as XD

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post


    The tablet market is exploding



    Apple should be able to keep dominance here, if competitors can't offer something the same size for less, before even counting the OS

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post


    The Mp3 player market has peeked with apple controlling 70%



    i think Apple isn't gonna be able to sit here, certainly not grow very much, same with digital distrubution, like iTunes

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post


    the iPhone and iPad did not exist 4 years ago.



    cash crop
  • Reply 23 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I'm convinced that information like this will move Apple's shares in the right direction, and for us, that direction means up:



    http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/27/chr...app-downloads/



    Indeed. More people I've known for years and even people I recently met all have iPhone and iPads, many of their kids have iPod touch's ("touches"?)... The diversity of people warming up to Apple is incredible.
  • Reply 24 of 57
    The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
    • Succession plan for SJ

    • Lack of understanding of business plan

    • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share

    • Fear of margin erosion

    • Fear of growth rate erosion

    • Fear of market cap

    • Belief that competitors will catch up

    • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash

    • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)

    Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.



    But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!
  • Reply 25 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    But as we've discussed previously, that doesn't necessarily mean much. I look to the longer trends. The market might be holding back because of uncertainty of when a Verizon phone will arrive, how many iPads will sell this quarter, etc. It's still moving in the right direction, and that's important. Apple, being mostly a consumer company is tied to unemployment numbers and shopping results. As those numbers seem to be looking better, we may expect to see more of a rise. I believe Apple again hit a new high today.



    I don't claim to know what it means. I was just stating a fact. I think facts should come before interpretation. AAPL was doing just fine earlier in the year and leading the markets when the economic prospects were more shaky, so I don't see where the consumer market plays into the stock's period of anemic performance. I suspect that investors were spooked by the less-than-huge iPad numbers and lower margin forecasts and will remain cautious until the next earnings report in January.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Milmoss is just another fellow with "selective logic".



    Failing any counterargument, insults always work.
  • Reply 26 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    I'm convinced that information like this will move Apple's shares in the right direction, and for us, that direction means up:



    http://techcrunch.com/2010/12/27/chr...app-downloads/



    Apple's first quarter will be outstanding but if the analysts are choosing numbers like Wu then it won't matter... all of Wu's numbers except for iPad seem to be at the very top.



    4.2 million Macs... hmmmmmm, really... I don't think Xmas is a time for Macs... maybe MBPs will do well.



    16 million iPhones... well, maybe... I actually think it will be a tad more.



    17 million iPods... that is pushing it imo



    The real story will be in iPad numbers... 6 million... I originally thought there's be 9-10 million... I'll revise that down to 7.5 - 8 million ... this is where AAPL could gain some traction.



    News stories in 2011 that could bring traction... heavy volumes in China, a Verizon phone, iPad 2, iP5... and maybe a mystery product.
  • Reply 27 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat.



    There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".
  • Reply 28 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".



    Both are true. Flat might even be a good thing if the markets are declining, but that has not been the case over this time period. They have rallied, with AAPL left far behind.
  • Reply 29 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    There is a difference between flat and "substantially underperfroming".



    Not when everything else is up. It's a fashion show.



    ...but, if you are using options conservatively rather than just pure stock, the 3-5% is much more like 12-50% gain. I'm not complaining about what my AAPL holdings have done in the last 3 months!
  • Reply 30 of 57
    insult removed
  • Reply 31 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    <insult removed>



    I agree, although the conclusion could be sugar-coated for easier digestion.
  • Reply 32 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
    • Succession plan for SJ

    • Lack of understanding of business plan

    • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share

    • Fear of margin erosion

    • Fear of growth rate erosion

    • Fear of market cap

    • Belief that competitors will catch up

    • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash

    • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)

    Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.



    But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!



    I wonder why the analysts who are so often quoted in the press are able to remain gainfully employed. They are often so off the mark it is laughable. Is their mission simply to damage AAPL's stock price to the point where it makes sense for their institutional investors? They should all sod off and die in a swamp.
  • Reply 33 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    Not when everything else is up. It's a fashion show.



    ...but, if you are using options conservatively rather than just pure stock, the 3-5% is much more like 12-50% gain. I'm not complaining about what my AAPL holdings have done in the last 3 months!



    I would not call it a fashion show, but an investment show. Making money is always in fashion. The basic investing continuum is still risk vs. reward. Compare to index funds. They are very unexciting performers by definition, trading off potential reward for lowered risk. Whenever index funds are outperforming riskier investments over a significant period of time, it might be a good place to start thinking about what you are getting for the risk exposure.
  • Reply 34 of 57
    macrrmacrr Posts: 488member
    it'd be fun to see millmoss' financial records.
  • Reply 35 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacRR View Post


    it'd be fun to see millmoss' financial records.



    You aren't going to, but what point you think you are making is beyond me.
  • Reply 36 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    I would not call it a fashion show, but an investment show. Making money is always in fashion.



    While I understand the rest of the comment, please explain how CRM can be more than a fashion show...



    The only thing I consider a real risk with AAPL (2-year horizon) is the sudden departure of Steve Jobs.



    CRM on the other hand needs to hope everybody is really bad at math.
  • Reply 37 of 57
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,252member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post


    Indeed. More people I've known for years and even people I recently met all have iPhone and iPads, many of their kids have iPod touch's ("touches"?)... The diversity of people warming up to Apple is incredible.



    A friend of mine called me this afternoon. A few months ago his PC went south. his son, who is almost 40 (I just say that so we get an idea that he's not a kid), went out and bought him an iMac. He loves it. His son has a MacBook. Well, his son just bought an iPad for himself, and one for his mom who wanted one after seeing mine. My friend said he will get one next year when the new one comes out.



    I'm not surprised Apple's products have been making the top of the most wished for lists.
  • Reply 38 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    While I understand the rest of the comment, please explain how CRM can be more than a fashion show...



    The only thing I consider a real risk with AAPL (2-year horizon) is the sudden departure of Steve Jobs.



    CRM on the other hand needs to hope everybody is really bad at math.



    What do you mean by CRM?



    I guess we could have fun debating the meaning of "fashion show" as it relates to investing, but I'm not sure I see where it goes. The point I made is that buying individual stocks with high risk/high potential reward profiles like AAPL have to beat the broader indexes or you're better off with the much safer index funds. BTW, I own them too. (Dull, but they help you sleep at night.)



    I haven't necessarily changed my longterm view of AAPL, but the last couple of months has made me squirm a little.
  • Reply 39 of 57
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,252member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post


    The doctor is right-- after the pre-earnings run-up, AAPL has been pretty flat. For the year, the stock has not done as well as the company. People put more value in AMZN and CRM (ponzi scheme!) than AAPL. The things that could be holding them back:
    • Succession plan for SJ

    • Lack of understanding of business plan

    • Insane belief that $325 is too much for a share

    • Fear of margin erosion

    • Fear of growth rate erosion

    • Fear of market cap

    • Belief that competitors will catch up

    • Failure to take "decisive action" with cash

    • Concern that future growth will be limited by incumbents (music, movies, tv, cable, cell...)



    Personally, I figure AAPL will be up 50% by the end of 2011.



    But much more interesting will be the rocky ride of timing the earnings release for the Tuesday before an options expiration Friday!



    I like the fact that the stock has gone up over 54% this year even though the companies performance was better. I really begin to get nervous when the P/E gets into the 30's. This way it stays in sane numbers. If Apple's stock goes up two thirds as much as the companies numbers, that's ok by me. The lower the P/E the better the investment over the longer term, and the better chance they will offer some cash to stockholders, which, I've begun thinking a few months ago, is about time.
  • Reply 40 of 57
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post


    The lower the P/E the better the investment over the longer term, and the better chance they will offer some cash to stockholders, which, I've begun thinking a few months ago, is about time.



    My world, and welcome to it.
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