I already mentioned this on another thread, but it is worth repeating. While stranded in Boston from Christmas to New Year I was amazed to see the hotel lounge / lobby area filled with people sipping coffee and hot cider using Apple products everywhere I looked. I was there five days and only saw a single PC on the last day. It was like being in an Apple store!
If you really want to be amazed, go walk though a college lounge, or the school's library. At my daughters school its like walking in a luminous apple orchard.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
These surveys generally occur at Apple Stores. At a mall, where Apple Stores are generally located, there is absolutely nothing illegal about sitting on a bench in the common area, sipping a coke and counting people going into and out of any given store. You can also count how many come out with bags, boxes, or smiles, for that matter. I'd like to see your Philadelphia cops try to give me the "bum rush" in that circumstance. If anything illegal transpires later (e.g. insider trading, etc) then the crime happens later and can not be presumed from the counting. (This is not "Minority Report"!)
But regarding legality, I don't see a problem with using publicly available information as input to your stock market analysis. Anybody with the wherewithal to sit and count could duplicate the feat at a few Apple Stores (with varying degrees of difficulty due to distance from the stores) and at several if you enlist a few friends across the country. Since anybody could gather this information then such people could hardly be called "insiders". They just happen to have eyeballs, a brain for counting stuff, and the means to transport themselves to a public place. If they then used this information to buy or sell the stock, buy or sell the information, or even release a report such as the one described, I don't see the crime. (This is different from similar reports that were based on supply chain data... data which is not publicly available.)
But regarding legality, I don't see a problem with using publicly available information as input to your stock market analysis.
Absolutely. I think the confusion comes from the insider trading investigations stemming from "chanel checks." These are a different beast entirely, because they are not a "public" source of information.
I was at an Apple store last week waiting at the Genius Bar and I saw a guy sitting on a bench just outside the store doors. He was there for over an hour. When I left, I looked over his shoulder and he had two crossword puzzles on a clipboard except that he was filling in sections with tally marks instead of letters.
His employer could have made that job less tedious if they had supplied him with an iPad.
I would expect the new MBAs to have a marked increased in Q1 unit sales but how will they affect their margins. Could the iPad best the Mac for revenue and/or profit this past quarter?
Quote:
Originally Posted by alandail
The myfii is an extra device to carry around and keep charged. I am sure that bundle goes away when the verizon iPad 2 is available. I have a Myfi and still upgraded to the 3G iPad because I found I didnt always have the myfi with me when I needed wireless access from my iPad.
It is, but it also has its advantages. It?s also only one option. You didn?t address my other questions. Why can?t Apple simply do what it?s doing now and sell iPads with cellular connectivity, why would going for the subsidized/contracted option be the best model?
I would expect the new MBAs to have a marked increased in Q1 unit sales but how will they affect their margins. Could the iPad best the Mac for revenue and/or profit this past quarter?
It is, but it also has its advantages. It?s also only one option. You didn?t address my other questions. Why can?t Apple simply do what it?s doing now and sell iPads with cellular connectivity, why would going for the subsidized/contracted option be the best model?
They could, but they'll see a ton more at $199 than they do at $529, just like they did with when they started selling iPhone subsidized. They could always give options. $199 with a contract, $499 wifi only, $529 no contract. With all of the rumors of how many displays they are ordering and how aggressively they are ramping up production, they must have something in the works to boost sales beyond the current growth pattern.
If you really want to be amazed, go walk though a college lounge, or the school's library. At my daughters school its like walking in a luminous apple orchard.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
Frequently overlooked by readers of stories like these are the words "in a note to investors." Customers of full-service brokerage houses get these analyst reports as part of the included services. They are often based on proprietary data and not designed for general consumption. Worth keeping in mind. Also, these analysts are not "surprised" when earnings come in higher than their estimates. They are usually conservative by design. In fact the markets know this -- if a company fails to beat consensus earnings by a good margin, the markets generally take this as a miss.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
OK sorry, I see your point. I took it the wrong way. I'll edit my earlier post.
I wonder how many other retail outlets Deutsche bank did this sort of research to.
Did they station guys outside of Walmart?
Did they have them outside of GM dealerships?
How about Yankee Candle outlets? Why Apple only? I mean, this was concerted effort, with at least 100 people, plus support personal, to measure Apples performance. How much is this data worth, anyway?
Yes to Walmart and GM, I have no clue about Yankee Candle (but if they are public, probably). This is an extremely common thing for Wall Street analysts, fund managers, hedge funds etc. If you can accurately predict an earnings surprise, possitive or negative, more than 48 hours before the announcement, there are $ billions to be made from informed trades in shares and even more so in options.
Any data you can legally collect (publicly available, not from private discussions with executives in the know) can be used to give the major investors an edge. This is why as an individual your best odds are in longer term investments. When it comes to the short term gyrations of individual securities, the big guys have all the cards and will trade on any new info before you have a chance to find out.
Over the holidays, Deutsche Bank checked in at more than 50 Apple retail and partner stores, and found lines and crowds driving "robust" demand for the iPhone.
Contrast this to the "lines and crowds" in the five MS stores...
Totally off subject, but I wonder if Apple has given any thought to creating a specialized shirt for each Apple store just like Harley-Davidson stores do. Whenever I travel, I grab shirts for the kids as souvenirs and it would be much cooler if they were Apple Store shirts from the various locations.
Oh man, that's just amazingly awesome! I used to collect hard Rock Cafe shirts for the kids when traveling overseas. I can imagine these things being traded like baseball cards. There's probably an eBay angle as well.
Kudo Tsunoda, the [?] current figure head for Kinect [?] said that ?preorders have been really strong. As far as what we?re looking at for Holiday, this is going to be stuff that?ll blow away any of the sales you?ve seen with the iPad.?
If 8M in 60 days is the number sold to customers, not to stores, then I?d say that wipes the floor with everything we?ve seen in unit sales from the iPad. Of course, that?s only one measure of sales with revenue for the iPad being 4x-6x higher per unit. Still, a good haul for MS especially if they thought it was only expected to sell 5M units.
Comments
I already mentioned this on another thread, but it is worth repeating. While stranded in Boston from Christmas to New Year I was amazed to see the hotel lounge / lobby area filled with people sipping coffee and hot cider using Apple products everywhere I looked. I was there five days and only saw a single PC on the last day. It was like being in an Apple store!
If you really want to be amazed, go walk though a college lounge, or the school's library. At my daughters school its like walking in a luminous apple orchard.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
These surveys generally occur at Apple Stores. At a mall, where Apple Stores are generally located, there is absolutely nothing illegal about sitting on a bench in the common area, sipping a coke and counting people going into and out of any given store. You can also count how many come out with bags, boxes, or smiles, for that matter. I'd like to see your Philadelphia cops try to give me the "bum rush" in that circumstance. If anything illegal transpires later (e.g. insider trading, etc) then the crime happens later and can not be presumed from the counting. (This is not "Minority Report"!)
But regarding legality, I don't see a problem with using publicly available information as input to your stock market analysis. Anybody with the wherewithal to sit and count could duplicate the feat at a few Apple Stores (with varying degrees of difficulty due to distance from the stores) and at several if you enlist a few friends across the country. Since anybody could gather this information then such people could hardly be called "insiders". They just happen to have eyeballs, a brain for counting stuff, and the means to transport themselves to a public place. If they then used this information to buy or sell the stock, buy or sell the information, or even release a report such as the one described, I don't see the crime. (This is different from similar reports that were based on supply chain data... data which is not publicly available.)
Thompson
But regarding legality, I don't see a problem with using publicly available information as input to your stock market analysis.
Absolutely. I think the confusion comes from the insider trading investigations stemming from "chanel checks." These are a different beast entirely, because they are not a "public" source of information.
I was at an Apple store last week waiting at the Genius Bar and I saw a guy sitting on a bench just outside the store doors. He was there for over an hour. When I left, I looked over his shoulder and he had two crossword puzzles on a clipboard except that he was filling in sections with tally marks instead of letters.
His employer could have made that job less tedious if they had supplied him with an iPad.
His employer could have made that job less tedious if they had supplied him with an iPad.
True, but I think they were going for "inconspicuous" more than efficient. To a casual observer, he was doing a crossword.
I dunno, but here in Jersey I suppose you could get in trouble if people got the idea they were being watched and counted...
True, but I think they were going for "inconspicuous" more than efficient. To a casual observer, he was doing a crossword.
I dunno, but here in Jersey I suppose you could get in trouble if people got the idea they were being watched and counted...
But Jerseyites are so friendly.
I dunno, but here in Jersey I suppose you could get in trouble if people got the idea they were being watched and counted...
Probably so. But it wouldn't be trouble from the cops and the legal system. It would be handled more, shall we say, intimately. And immediately.
Thompson
The myfii is an extra device to carry around and keep charged. I am sure that bundle goes away when the verizon iPad 2 is available. I have a Myfi and still upgraded to the 3G iPad because I found I didnt always have the myfi with me when I needed wireless access from my iPad.
It is, but it also has its advantages. It?s also only one option. You didn?t address my other questions. Why can?t Apple simply do what it?s doing now and sell iPads with cellular connectivity, why would going for the subsidized/contracted option be the best model?
I would expect the new MBAs to have a marked increased in Q1 unit sales but how will they affect their margins. Could the iPad best the Mac for revenue and/or profit this past quarter?
It is, but it also has its advantages. It?s also only one option. You didn?t address my other questions. Why can?t Apple simply do what it?s doing now and sell iPads with cellular connectivity, why would going for the subsidized/contracted option be the best model?
They could, but they'll see a ton more at $199 than they do at $529, just like they did with when they started selling iPhone subsidized. They could always give options. $199 with a contract, $499 wifi only, $529 no contract. With all of the rumors of how many displays they are ordering and how aggressively they are ramping up production, they must have something in the works to boost sales beyond the current growth pattern.
If you really want to be amazed, go walk though a college lounge, or the school's library. At my daughters school its like walking in a luminous apple orchard.
I love it
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
Frequently overlooked by readers of stories like these are the words "in a note to investors." Customers of full-service brokerage houses get these analyst reports as part of the included services. They are often based on proprietary data and not designed for general consumption. Worth keeping in mind. Also, these analysts are not "surprised" when earnings come in higher than their estimates. They are usually conservative by design. In fact the markets know this -- if a company fails to beat consensus earnings by a good margin, the markets generally take this as a miss.
WAY off. Come back in six months Mr. Analyst and try again.
Whoa, Whoa, Whoa, I am in no position to comment one way or the other. I am only saying that Deutche bank went to a lot of trouble for.... what? Is this standard for them to monitor retail stores in the US? Did they check germany? Does Apple let them?Only Apple? Is this insider trading? I mean, if a guy finds an Iphone, and opens it for research, they sue him. A guy sits outside a store watching your customers, well, at my shop, the Philadelphia police would get his ID and give him the bum rush.
OK sorry, I see your point. I took it the wrong way. I'll edit my earlier post.
In other news, today is Tuesday!
Why are they always so surprised that Apple exceeds their expectations? When do they not?
just to make a news out of it. Does't that the way these things are supposed to work?
Only an estimated 28 million iPads to be sold in CY 2011???
WAY off. Come back in six months Mr. Analyst and try again.
Did he really say that? Oops!
I wonder how many other retail outlets Deutsche bank did this sort of research to.
Did they station guys outside of Walmart?
Did they have them outside of GM dealerships?
How about Yankee Candle outlets? Why Apple only? I mean, this was concerted effort, with at least 100 people, plus support personal, to measure Apples performance. How much is this data worth, anyway?
Yes to Walmart and GM, I have no clue about Yankee Candle (but if they are public, probably). This is an extremely common thing for Wall Street analysts, fund managers, hedge funds etc. If you can accurately predict an earnings surprise, possitive or negative, more than 48 hours before the announcement, there are $ billions to be made from informed trades in shares and even more so in options.
Any data you can legally collect (publicly available, not from private discussions with executives in the know) can be used to give the major investors an edge. This is why as an individual your best odds are in longer term investments. When it comes to the short term gyrations of individual securities, the big guys have all the cards and will trade on any new info before you have a chance to find out.
Over the holidays, Deutsche Bank checked in at more than 50 Apple retail and partner stores, and found lines and crowds driving "robust" demand for the iPhone.
Contrast this to the "lines and crowds" in the five MS stores...
Totally off subject, but I wonder if Apple has given any thought to creating a specialized shirt for each Apple store just like Harley-Davidson stores do. Whenever I travel, I grab shirts for the kids as souvenirs and it would be much cooler if they were Apple Store shirts from the various locations.
Oh man, that's just amazingly awesome! I used to collect hard Rock Cafe shirts for the kids when traveling overseas. I can imagine these things being traded like baseball cards. There's probably an eBay angle as well.
Send Jobs a proposal immediately! Seriously.
Kudo Tsunoda, the [?] current figure head for Kinect [?] said that ?preorders have been really strong. As far as what we?re looking at for Holiday, this is going to be stuff that?ll blow away any of the sales you?ve seen with the iPad.?
If 8M in 60 days is the number sold to customers, not to stores, then I?d say that wipes the floor with everything we?ve seen in unit sales from the iPad. Of course, that?s only one measure of sales with revenue for the iPad being 4x-6x higher per unit. Still, a good haul for MS especially if they thought it was only expected to sell 5M units.
Remember when MS?s boisterously claimed the Kinect would outsell the iPad? It may have just done that.
Dare we question the relevance?