what I want are clothes that have nano chips in them that are capable of allowing for clothes that clean themselves(while your wearing them even) and clothes that can change color as easy as it is to change the color of a brush in photoshop.
same with walls and carpets and shit,
another cool idea is that of little nano robots in your blood stream eliminating cancer and shit like that
its going to be strange when I'm in my 60s in 2040 and looking at all that has changed and being looked at as an old timer and all that
When I was a kid in the nineteen eighties we had to put up with all the crap adults were spewing like :
ooh by the year 2000 we will all be in flying cars, work less, eradicate cancer, travel vast distances in space. Computers will talk to us and make decisions blah blah blah.
Of course us kids knew what a load of bollocks this was. We were growing up in the new paper driven, manager led, brick wall talking culture. We knew that people with intelligence and talent were being disenfranchised and that the world was now the property of Faceless, False, Profit Chasing, Statistics Reading, Focus group having PLC.
They had the power and now in 2002 they wield it.
In 50 years time nothing will happen. Why? becuase nothing is allowed to happen any more that does not turn a profit, or is not "cost effective", or "financially viable".
People will just work longer hours, for less. The poor will keep getting poorer, small wars will keep breaking out and humans will still treat each other will reprehensible cruelty.
I will make one prediction though:
2007 - Dell release the Macintosh G6 Easyas123 PC (having bought out a bankrupt apple in 2005)
To go with what Steven Hawkings is saying. He really is full of BS. Sure, hes smart, but no way in heck that he can predict that the human race will come obsolete after a short period of time. I would of thought that he would of heard of evolution. The human race is going to evolve just as we have been doing for centuries..
In 50 years... Computers will be so small, fast, cheap and abundant that they will have been placed almost everywhere thinkable...
With <a href="http://www.ZeoSync.com/"; target="_blank">Perfect 100:1 Compression</a> and Isolinear optical proccesors and holographic data storage... the future sounds pretty dam cool...
<strong>I'm not talking about moores law here. That is becoming obsolete as well. IM and email have been prolific for what? 6 years at the most. Hell the Internet was born (as far as <a href="http://www.com)" target="_blank">http://www.com)</a> in 1994ish. That's 8 years. infantcy. What did a car look like in 1897ish? (8 years after Mercedes and Benz got together to build an autocarrige)</strong><hr></blockquote>
The internet was created closer to the 1980s as a DoD initiative in case of nuclear war. I have been on the internet since 1993...or 92?... so it has certainly been around since before 1994.
As for the case of engineering it is a little different to computers in terms of progress. Problem with engineering these days it is largely dependent on the computers and other technology available for how quickly it can advance. One of the biggest drawbacks for both cars and aircraft is their current methods for power. Solve that problem and you will see a leap.
There are actually equations that model technological development (don't ask) that show it does so at an exponential rate or has done.
As for the future of computers...well there are a number of interesting developments. Count on them being neutered by the US DoD or NSA though. Even simple versions of these computers in theory could crack the current high-end encryption methods within minutes.
They would provide a massive boost to engineering but it will be at least 5 years after development before they are no longer considered a secuity risk.
Hawking is fairly accurate with his statements. Perhaps even a little generous. Human brains are going to become very quickly obsolete unless we do something.
<strong>READ : The Age of Spiritual Machines</strong><hr></blockquote>
"The Age Of Spiritual Machines" is a fantastic book. I recommend it to anybody interested in technology.
The author (Kurzweil) is also a software/hardware designer. Among his numerous acheivements, he designed and built a machine (way back in the 70's) that could scan a book and read it out loud for blind people. He really knows his stuff, and while you never know how much of his predictions will come true, it certainly is good food for thought.
If we look at great predictions of the past, the only consistant thingis that they were all wrong. For example, there was that famous prediction by someone (von Neumann?) that in 50 years (i.e. today) computers would be so expensive that there would only be 5 of them, and that they would be able to predict the weather.
Cool, in the future everyone will be able to compress their names into a single bit. It will make signing things so much easier. You just have to mark a 1 or a 0 depending on the compression result.
Obviously, computers will become much faster, smaller, lighter and use less power. It is not obvious that they will be put to any better uses than they are today.
We can predict faster computers because we know how they work and we know the technology will improve. In the case of artificial intelligence, we fundamentally don't know what to do. There are all sorts of programs that encapsulate some aspects of logic but we have yet to model intelligence or consciousness so there is no way to predict how our technology in this area will improve.
Systems will become more clever. Databases and sensors and statistical analysis can accomplish a lot but this is not the same as artificial intelligence.
This is not to say a breakthrough won't be made, just that we can't predict it. We can, with some confidence, say that transistors as we know them will get smaller and faster and use less power. We can say that our algorithms can be fine tuned to provide better results. We can't easily predict when a major breakthrough will be made.
<strong>To go with what Steven Hawkings is saying. He really is full of BS. Sure, hes smart, but no way in heck that he can predict that the human race will come obsolete after a short period of time. I would of thought that he would of heard of evolution. The human race is going to evolve just as we have been doing for centuries..</strong><hr></blockquote>
I agree with you, but evolution take alot longer to happen than technological development. And Evolution has been happening for much longer than centuries....
[quote]By 2020, $1000 of computing power (in todays $) will exceed the computational capacity of the human brain. more than 10% of the total computational capacity of the human race (and it's machines) wil be machine.
By 2040, $1000 of computing power will exceed tha computational capacity of ALL THE HUMAN BRAINS in the word. over 99% of the total computational capacity of the human race will be machine.
Over the next 40 years human machine interaction will become more and more intimate, with bionic implants becoming commonplace, and even nessisary, and by 2040, a non bionically enhanced human will not be able to have a meaningfull relationship with bionicly enhance human.
<hr></blockquote>
Planet Earth, Population, 20 Billion. All Borg.
LOL, give me a break, how many people would want "bionic" implants? That's absurd.
In 20 years people will still be using computers for pretty much the same things they do now. If you want proof, just look at the change between now and 10 years ago. Technology is incredibly more advanced, but people still use their computers to communicate, and for games, and data analysis, etc, etc, same old sh!t. The primary thing that has changed is the internet, which is more about infrastructure than computing technology.
The main barrier to computing is not the computer, but the infrastructure. Today, the barrier to greater bandwidth lies in the old tech lines that make up our networks. Those lines would be prohibitively expensive to replace, and they determine the bandwidth for most people. Even cable and DSL customers are ultimately limited by their connection bandwidth.
When bandwidth is increased to the point where we can communicate over long distances at speeds comparable to Firewire, or system bus speeds, then the real sparks will begin to fly, because no matter how powerful computers become, they will be limited by their operators. But network millions of operators together and big changes in our society will begin to occur, just like they have now with the Internet.
So I predict that bandwidth, no MHz, will result in the next big change in computing.
<strong>So I predict that bandwidth, no MHz, will result in the next big change in computing.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Depends on what area you talk about. Average household consumers want different things to various businesses and governments.
Without question though the biggest change that will occur in the next decade will be to move away from the old classical computer architecture.
How can we be certain of that? Aparts from the fact I know people working at the forefront of it, the current methods of design simply can't continue to shrink.
There are other solutions but eventually companies have to bite the bullet and accept the current computer technology isn't scaleable for the long term.
As a result in the next decade you will see completely new developments. Older architecture will be used in some areas but no question the biggest changes will come when they move away from today's processor designs and onto something new.
What's really odd is that on the old AI boards I posted a started a similar thread except I proposed a 300 years from now scenario.
One of the moderators locked it.
After I thought about it for awhile I figure it was very foreshadowing.
No matter the good intentions of the masses to move the world forward, there will be this one idiot with a little power to f--k things up.
So whatever you guys are predicting, throw in the human factor... i.e. guy invents anti-gravity and Exxon hires a hitman to kill him. Woman finds a way to prevent cancer by ingecting salt water up your nose, the process is patented and you have to pay $4000 to get the treatment to offset "research".
In 40 years the only computer I would want is the kind that diables all the other computers around me that are monitoring my every move.
LOL, give me a break, how many people would want "bionic" implants? That's absurd.
In 20 years people will still be using computers for pretty much the same things they do now....
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Hey-- cool movie concept. Oh, wait...
As for bionic implants, how many people in this day and age get cosmetic surgery? Hmm... now, what if beauty contests actually cared about, say, intelligence? And who can actually remember how many molecules are in a mole during an exam?
I see a market for implants. And that scares me.
But I agree that most people will probably use their computers in the same way, regardless of how powerful it is. And it has to be powerful, because we will still be using Word.
Actually the planets population won't reach 20 billion that quickly. Aparently, it will level off over the next 20 years, maybe 10, 12 billion?
No, not borg. This is NOT science fiction here.
the IOC is already investigating ways to detect genetic modification of atheletes. Using gene therapy one could increse the amound of fast fire muscles in the your legs so you could run 100m in 7 seconds.
What about 3x as dense muscles? Cavemen could have ripped your arms out of their sockets, and Apes can do it today.
Would you want to see in the dark? how about infared, ultravilot, x-ray or microwave?
What about a gene therapy that makes you send off a pheramone to girls (or guys) and makes you irasistable (I'm sure a lot of you would want that!)
Yes people use machines to do the things they used them for 10 years ago, for the most part. Yes people will work more, and faster.
Think about what a computer would build to make it's life easier if it could. Without the boundaries of profit or greed or marketing.
We cannot build probably 90% of the items we use everyday all day without computers. We could not feed the few we do in this world without computers. Computers are getting closer and closer to builing themselves every day.. it would be a lot cheaper if an Intel plant was vaccuum sealed and had no workers. It would be even cheaper if the plant used evolution software to design new chips that are more and more efficient. Intel could have a think tank to point the plant in the right direction. But that will become too slow and the plant will do it all itself..
In general, a larger proportion of humans will not like to bionic implants placed inside them. This is for a couple of reasons:
Lack of understanding, most people, will not know what these implants would do, if they were available.
Fear of not being in control of your own body, would be a major factor, even if this couldn't be done, many will still be reluctant no matter what assurance they get.
I don't know about you, but implants are not the way to go, a machine and a human need to be separate, but I do like the nanoclothes idea, where the clothes are washed automatically and could change colour, I like it.
Robots will become more intelligent at an exponential rate. They shall enslave the human race and turn us into human batteries.
No, wait... I was thinkin of that Keanu movie...
Stuff will continue to become cheaper, faster and smaller. In just 50 years we've gone from building-sized computers to iBooks that you can slip into your backpack.
What I love most about what Apple is doing is that they realize the direction that computing is heading. The revolution is over, and now it's time for integration. That's what's so brilliant about the new iMac. It's the un-computer. I've heard so many wisecracks about the new Apple "desklamp," but that's exactly the direction they want to go. They want your computer to be as commonplace and as integrated into your surroundings as a common desk lamp, or television set, or microwave oven. Just another day-to-day accessory that you don't even think about. I LOVE that!
Comments
same with walls and carpets and shit,
another cool idea is that of little nano robots in your blood stream eliminating cancer and shit like that
its going to be strange when I'm in my 60s in 2040 and looking at all that has changed and being looked at as an old timer and all that
wow...I can't wait
ooh by the year 2000 we will all be in flying cars, work less, eradicate cancer, travel vast distances in space. Computers will talk to us and make decisions blah blah blah.
Of course us kids knew what a load of bollocks this was. We were growing up in the new paper driven, manager led, brick wall talking culture. We knew that people with intelligence and talent were being disenfranchised and that the world was now the property of Faceless, False, Profit Chasing, Statistics Reading, Focus group having PLC.
They had the power and now in 2002 they wield it.
In 50 years time nothing will happen. Why? becuase nothing is allowed to happen any more that does not turn a profit, or is not "cost effective", or "financially viable".
People will just work longer hours, for less. The poor will keep getting poorer, small wars will keep breaking out and humans will still treat each other will reprehensible cruelty.
I will make one prediction though:
2007 - Dell release the Macintosh G6 Easyas123 PC (having bought out a bankrupt apple in 2005)
Have a nice life
<strong>Rant</strong><hr></blockquote>
Yeah well, I used to think this way, but then I started drinking and now I don't think at all.
Animus
With <a href="http://www.ZeoSync.com/"; target="_blank">Perfect 100:1 Compression</a> and Isolinear optical proccesors and holographic data storage... the future sounds pretty dam cool...
E PLURIBUS UNIX
------------------------------------
[ 01-31-2002: Message edited by: FERRO ]</p>
<strong>I'm not talking about moores law here. That is becoming obsolete as well. IM and email have been prolific for what? 6 years at the most. Hell the Internet was born (as far as <a href="http://www.com)" target="_blank">http://www.com)</a> in 1994ish. That's 8 years. infantcy. What did a car look like in 1897ish? (8 years after Mercedes and Benz got together to build an autocarrige)</strong><hr></blockquote>
The internet was created closer to the 1980s as a DoD initiative in case of nuclear war. I have been on the internet since 1993...or 92?... so it has certainly been around since before 1994.
As for the case of engineering it is a little different to computers in terms of progress. Problem with engineering these days it is largely dependent on the computers and other technology available for how quickly it can advance. One of the biggest drawbacks for both cars and aircraft is their current methods for power. Solve that problem and you will see a leap.
There are actually equations that model technological development (don't ask) that show it does so at an exponential rate or has done.
As for the future of computers...well there are a number of interesting developments. Count on them being neutered by the US DoD or NSA though. Even simple versions of these computers in theory could crack the current high-end encryption methods within minutes.
They would provide a massive boost to engineering but it will be at least 5 years after development before they are no longer considered a secuity risk.
Hawking is fairly accurate with his statements. Perhaps even a little generous. Human brains are going to become very quickly obsolete unless we do something.
<strong>READ : The Age of Spiritual Machines</strong><hr></blockquote>
"The Age Of Spiritual Machines" is a fantastic book. I recommend it to anybody interested in technology.
The author (Kurzweil) is also a software/hardware designer. Among his numerous acheivements, he designed and built a machine (way back in the 70's) that could scan a book and read it out loud for blind people. He really knows his stuff, and while you never know how much of his predictions will come true, it certainly is good food for thought.
If we look at great predictions of the past, the only consistant thingis that they were all wrong. For example, there was that famous prediction by someone (von Neumann?) that in 50 years (i.e. today) computers would be so expensive that there would only be 5 of them, and that they would be able to predict the weather.
<strong>
With Perfect 100:1 Compression...
[ 01-31-2002: Message edited by: FERRO ]</strong><hr></blockquote>
Cool, in the future everyone will be able to compress their names into a single bit. It will make signing things so much easier. You just have to mark a 1 or a 0 depending on the compression result.
We can predict faster computers because we know how they work and we know the technology will improve. In the case of artificial intelligence, we fundamentally don't know what to do. There are all sorts of programs that encapsulate some aspects of logic but we have yet to model intelligence or consciousness so there is no way to predict how our technology in this area will improve.
Systems will become more clever. Databases and sensors and statistical analysis can accomplish a lot but this is not the same as artificial intelligence.
This is not to say a breakthrough won't be made, just that we can't predict it. We can, with some confidence, say that transistors as we know them will get smaller and faster and use less power. We can say that our algorithms can be fine tuned to provide better results. We can't easily predict when a major breakthrough will be made.
<strong>To go with what Steven Hawkings is saying. He really is full of BS. Sure, hes smart, but no way in heck that he can predict that the human race will come obsolete after a short period of time. I would of thought that he would of heard of evolution. The human race is going to evolve just as we have been doing for centuries..</strong><hr></blockquote>
I agree with you, but evolution take alot longer to happen than technological development. And Evolution has been happening for much longer than centuries....
By 2040, $1000 of computing power will exceed tha computational capacity of ALL THE HUMAN BRAINS in the word. over 99% of the total computational capacity of the human race will be machine.
Over the next 40 years human machine interaction will become more and more intimate, with bionic implants becoming commonplace, and even nessisary, and by 2040, a non bionically enhanced human will not be able to have a meaningfull relationship with bionicly enhance human.
<hr></blockquote>
Planet Earth, Population, 20 Billion. All Borg.
LOL, give me a break, how many people would want "bionic" implants? That's absurd.
In 20 years people will still be using computers for pretty much the same things they do now. If you want proof, just look at the change between now and 10 years ago. Technology is incredibly more advanced, but people still use their computers to communicate, and for games, and data analysis, etc, etc, same old sh!t. The primary thing that has changed is the internet, which is more about infrastructure than computing technology.
The main barrier to computing is not the computer, but the infrastructure. Today, the barrier to greater bandwidth lies in the old tech lines that make up our networks. Those lines would be prohibitively expensive to replace, and they determine the bandwidth for most people. Even cable and DSL customers are ultimately limited by their connection bandwidth.
When bandwidth is increased to the point where we can communicate over long distances at speeds comparable to Firewire, or system bus speeds, then the real sparks will begin to fly, because no matter how powerful computers become, they will be limited by their operators. But network millions of operators together and big changes in our society will begin to occur, just like they have now with the Internet.
So I predict that bandwidth, no MHz, will result in the next big change in computing.
[ 01-31-2002: Message edited by: Junkyard Dawg ]</p>
<strong>So I predict that bandwidth, no MHz, will result in the next big change in computing.</strong><hr></blockquote>
Depends on what area you talk about. Average household consumers want different things to various businesses and governments.
Without question though the biggest change that will occur in the next decade will be to move away from the old classical computer architecture.
How can we be certain of that? Aparts from the fact I know people working at the forefront of it, the current methods of design simply can't continue to shrink.
There are other solutions but eventually companies have to bite the bullet and accept the current computer technology isn't scaleable for the long term.
As a result in the next decade you will see completely new developments. Older architecture will be used in some areas but no question the biggest changes will come when they move away from today's processor designs and onto something new.
One of the moderators locked it.
After I thought about it for awhile I figure it was very foreshadowing.
No matter the good intentions of the masses to move the world forward, there will be this one idiot with a little power to f--k things up.
So whatever you guys are predicting, throw in the human factor... i.e. guy invents anti-gravity and Exxon hires a hitman to kill him. Woman finds a way to prevent cancer by ingecting salt water up your nose, the process is patented and you have to pay $4000 to get the treatment to offset "research".
In 40 years the only computer I would want is the kind that diables all the other computers around me that are monitoring my every move.
MSKR
<strong>
Planet Earth, Population, 20 Billion. All Borg.
LOL, give me a break, how many people would want "bionic" implants? That's absurd.
In 20 years people will still be using computers for pretty much the same things they do now....
</strong><hr></blockquote>
Hey-- cool movie concept. Oh, wait...
As for bionic implants, how many people in this day and age get cosmetic surgery? Hmm... now, what if beauty contests actually cared about, say, intelligence? And who can actually remember how many molecules are in a mole during an exam?
I see a market for implants. And that scares me.
But I agree that most people will probably use their computers in the same way, regardless of how powerful it is. And it has to be powerful, because we will still be using Word.
No, not borg. This is NOT science fiction here.
the IOC is already investigating ways to detect genetic modification of atheletes. Using gene therapy one could increse the amound of fast fire muscles in the your legs so you could run 100m in 7 seconds.
What about 3x as dense muscles? Cavemen could have ripped your arms out of their sockets, and Apes can do it today.
Would you want to see in the dark? how about infared, ultravilot, x-ray or microwave?
What about a gene therapy that makes you send off a pheramone to girls (or guys) and makes you irasistable (I'm sure a lot of you would want that!)
new skin, hearts, lungs, livers, kidneys, ears, arms and bodies will soon be avaible to those who can afford it. read : <a href="http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99991826"; target="_blank">http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99991826</a>;
Yes people use machines to do the things they used them for 10 years ago, for the most part. Yes people will work more, and faster.
Think about what a computer would build to make it's life easier if it could. Without the boundaries of profit or greed or marketing.
We cannot build probably 90% of the items we use everyday all day without computers. We could not feed the few we do in this world without computers. Computers are getting closer and closer to builing themselves every day.. it would be a lot cheaper if an Intel plant was vaccuum sealed and had no workers. It would be even cheaper if the plant used evolution software to design new chips that are more and more efficient. Intel could have a think tank to point the plant in the right direction. But that will become too slow and the plant will do it all itself..
AGAIN..
READ: THE AGE OF SPIRITUAL MACHINES
AND: THE DIAMOND AGE.
[ 02-01-2002: Message edited by: JasonPP ]</p>
Lack of understanding, most people, will not know what these implants would do, if they were available.
Fear of not being in control of your own body, would be a major factor, even if this couldn't be done, many will still be reluctant no matter what assurance they get.
I don't know about you, but implants are not the way to go, a machine and a human need to be separate, but I do like the nanoclothes idea, where the clothes are washed automatically and could change colour, I like it.
No, wait... I was thinkin of that Keanu movie...
Stuff will continue to become cheaper, faster and smaller. In just 50 years we've gone from building-sized computers to iBooks that you can slip into your backpack.
What I love most about what Apple is doing is that they realize the direction that computing is heading. The revolution is over, and now it's time for integration. That's what's so brilliant about the new iMac. It's the un-computer. I've heard so many wisecracks about the new Apple "desklamp," but that's exactly the direction they want to go. They want your computer to be as commonplace and as integrated into your surroundings as a common desk lamp, or television set, or microwave oven. Just another day-to-day accessory that you don't even think about. I LOVE that!
RESISTANCE IS FUTILE! ...
E PLURIBUS UNIX
------------------------------------
[ 02-01-2002: Message edited by: FERRO ]</p>
<strong>
The internet was created closer to the 1980s as a DoD initiative in case of nuclear war. </strong><hr></blockquote>
Hey, don't spread that! ARPAnet (spelling?) was initiated for research purposes, sort of making a grid for education facilities.