Better keep your DVD collection small if you really plan on doing this. Flash memory is very expensive and Flash memory beyond 128GB is not even being manufactured in the quantities that Apple would need even if the memory was very cheap.
I hear you and you might be right.
Steve Jobs at All Things D spoke about the tablet being part of the post PC era. If these tablet computers are going to be our primary tool on a regular basis, I think it should compete with PCs in many levels. I strongly think storage should be one of them.
If they can fit 256GB inside the new MacBook Air (knowing that more than 75% of the inside is occupied by battery), they just have to be able to at the very least fit half of that into the iPad.
Another thing to think about is, what model of iPad is the most popular one? Apple must be selling more of one model than any of the rest and I have a feeling (but I might be wrong) that the 16GB iPad is not it. I really think that this model will be terminated this next release. It feels exactly like buying a 4GB iPhone! Totally pointless for people who own a lot of content.
I really feel that if we could have a 128GB iPad, then we wouldn't necessarily spend money on an external hard drive to be carrying things around because it would all be on this one device.
I know storage is not the one reason to buy an iPad. It has many other benefits. But, more storage is just another reason to trade in a netbook, laptop, desktop or external hardrive for the iPad.
I'm on the same bandwagon with the iPad, and even though we upgraded our 3G's to the 4, if FIOS gets to us this year, we'll move to Verizon and get the 5. I wish though that Apple would offer a universal 3G model iPad instead of two models.
1) I think you are confusing the fast app switching API that developers can easily use so their app comes back to the previous state with the Fast App Switcher, an iOS 4.0 interface for seeing all the recently used apps you’ve ever opened iOS in the order you’ve last opened them, from left to right.
2) Yes, when you turn off the iPad you are turning it off. I used the term “power cycle” just to be clear I didn’t mean disabling power to the display.
3) I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps I’m still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-tocuh swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.
I have 138 apps, and I'm pretty sure that number will continue to increase, so it's often very convenient. In fact, the most recent work done on the number of apps the average iOS user has has been found to be 108. I'm not that far ahead of the curve after all.
i, too, am definitely sitting out this one if that's the kinda specs they will deliver. perhaps, i might get a xoom or something.
It's very silly to buy something just based on the hardware specs. I can assure you that my gen. 1 iPad is more than fast enough for almost everything. The OS has a lot to do with this, and iOs is much better than Android in this. What will you do when another Android tablet three months later has better specs than the Zoom? Will you then buy that?
No matter what specs those tablets will have, the iPad will still WORK better, and will have much better apps, as well as many more of them, in more categories. Many of the Android apps out there have been shown to be ripoff of other Android apps. dozens of apps from MS, for example are written by malware authors. the same thing for many other apps.
Steve Jobs at All Things D spoke about the tablet being part of the post PC era. If these tablet computers are going to be our primary tool on a regular basis, I think it should compete with PCs in many levels. I strongly think storage should be one of them.
If they can fit 256GB inside the new MacBook Air (knowing that more than 75% of the inside is occupied by battery), they just have to be able to at the very least fit half of that into the iPad.
Another thing to think about is, what model of iPad is the most popular one? Apple must be selling more of one model than any of the rest and I have a feeling (but I might be wrong) that the 16GB iPad is not it. I really think that this model will be terminated this next release. It feels exactly like buying a 4GB iPhone! Totally pointless for people who own a lot of content.
I really feel that if we could have a 128GB iPad, then we wouldn't necessarily spend money on an external hard drive to be carrying things around because it would all be on this one device.
I know storage is not the one reason to buy an iPad. It has many other benefits. But, more storage is just another reason to trade in a netbook, laptop, desktop or external hardrive for the iPad.
Average selling price is $625.
Flash prices have remained high over the past 18 months.
That post was clearly someone very unaware of their use of language.
He did make me think about how people are going to react once the competition releases their warez.
Were it not for itunes and the app store, halo effect etc I'd say the Moto Xoom looks pretty good as a piece of hardware not to mention the specs RAM, HDMI, Cameras etc. I'd like to actually see one in person, but it really is fairly attractive overall. It could be stiff competition for the ipad. So too will the similarly spec'd playbook.
I love my ipad, but it is feeling old already. I don't like the casing, the round back is awkward and the silver is tired. The apps are now robust enough to deserve and require a great CPU/ GPU combo making my ipad V1 a little tweaky and slow-ish at times. It reminds me of my old the 1G iphone. We definitely ready for a refresh.
However, if ipadV2 has a crummy camera, no HDMI support and otherwise the same specs as BB or Moto I can see how there would be a question as to which to buy for someone who doesn't understand the value of Apple's app store, the quality of the apps themselves, itunes etc. It could give android and BB some traction.
Like I said tablets are basically big screens. For Apple to offer a vastly superior screen, similar specs as a moto or BB and even with less functional cameras, no HDMI etc they would still sell bazillions of them, no question. That's the kind of feature that is immediately obvious to a consumer.
I don't think you've got this quite right. EVERY app in that bar starts exactly where it was left off, and that's part of the definition of fast app switching.
I just tested your assertion. I started a game, moved to another app and moved back to the game. Yes, it was in the same state in which I left it.
I power cycled the phone. The game was in the fast switch area and so I opened it. The game started anew.
What this tells me is the fast switch area is really just stack of the most recently used apps. It says nothing about their state. Unless I'm holding it wrong.
I question why the bar is there is in the first place. Why can't simple access the apps from the spring board? You still have to press the home button.
It's very silly to buy something just based on the hardware specs. I can assure you that my gen. 1 iPad is more than fast enough for almost everything. The OS has a lot to do with this, and iOs is much better than Android in this. What will you do when another Android tablet three months later has better specs than the Zoom? Will you then buy that?
No matter what specs those tablets will have, the iPad will still WORK better, and will have much better apps, as well as many more of them, in more categories. Many of the Android apps out there have been shown to be ripoff of other Android apps. dozens of apps from MS, for example are written by malware authors. the same thing for many other apps.
All in all, it's not worth it.
I can see buying on HW specs if your also comparing price points AND the devices are using the same OS. As we?ve seen Android and WP7 have needed better HW specs just to do the same tasks. I think it was Wizard69 who stated Android 3.0 will finally have HW accelerated GUI. That?s a start, but when will Android 3.0 be released and how efficient will it be compared to mobile OSes that have had it for years.
Unlike the iPod market (and possibly the iPhone market, due to limited # of carriers), the iPad is not near saturation.
What does this mean?
It means that Apple can tap a huge market without requiring people to "upgrade" their current iPads. Only when the iPad approaches saturation (meaning those who would buy an iPad have already bought one) does Apple need to create huge upgrades with features that drive people to upgrade their product. And often the tipping point of an upgrade is 2 version delta.
Apple has been timing their feature improvement, major features perfectly in the past, so I'm not sure why they wouldn't know what they are doing with the iPad.
I would guess this new feature set will cause some upgrades (maybe not too many), but will drive sales for those who wait for ver2 of a product. So ver3 will cause large ver1 upgrades and a few ver2 upgrades and still drive new sales. Once ver4 is out, the market may be near saturated but by that time they have a user distribution of upgrades.
There is some benefit to having a slight spread in the user-base.
A neat scenario that simply puts my previous forecast to shame.
I figured Apple would out spec the competition in year two of the iPad, which is in fact year 1*of the nascent tablet market. My logic was based on strong arming tactics of sucking the oxygen out of the competing arguments set essentially on hardware specs. I had the iPhone 4 with Retina and the FaceTime/AirPlay hardware infrastructure as a precedent and as a prime reference.
But the contexts of these iOS devices are indeed very different in terms of development stages and market deployments. IPhone is a vector of platform maturity, iPad direly needs consolidated platform integration. Your analysis reflects that reality; mine anchors on hardware irrelevancy, tech specs being muffled into backstage small talks.
I don't agree about the display. While we all want an x2 Rez display, I can understand the difficulties of producing it at high volume. The pixels would be a quarter the size of the current ones, and how many dead ones would you accept? So far, my iPad has none.
I also disagree with the notion of a Pro model with a higher Rez screen. The worst thong Apple could do would be to bifurcate the line that way. Everyone must be able to use the same apps the same way on a new gen device. What you want is where Android has problems. Not good.
I have been thinking about this for a while.
I mostly agree that:
-- a 2x display ppi would be costly and have lower yield
-- bifurcating the line with a pro model is wrong, as they already have too many SKUs
Then, there is the unknown about the competition -- will MMI (or the others) have access to enough components and manufacturing capacity to produce the millions of units to provide real competition?
I have posted in other threads that Apple is in the catbird seat because of pre-buying components and reserving manufacturing facilities. Apple can milk the current iPad 1 for several months -- and release the iPad 2 when it make best sense from a profit, capability and delivery fulfillment perspective.
I think that is still true, as there really are no competitive offerings... just RSN.
Here's the thing that has been bugging me -- iPhone, and now the iPad (supposedly) will be refreshed on an annual basis.
Would it be to Apple's advantage to refresh on different than a calendar cycle...
It may be more realistic to refresh for a competitive advantage or when there is a technological breakthrough (e.g. higher yields on 2x ppi screens).
Maybe, some times an 18 mo refresh makes sense -- other times, 6 months.
A neat scenario that simply puts my previous forecast to shame.
I figured Apple would out spec the competition in year two of the iPad, which is in fact year 1*of the nascent tablet market. My logic was based on strong arming tactics of sucking the oxygen out of the competing arguments set essentially on hardware specs. I had the iPhone 4 with Retina and the FaceTime/AirPlay hardware infrastructure as a precedent and as a prime reference.
But the contexts of these iOS devices are indeed very different in terms of development stages and market deployments. IPhone is a vector of platform maturity, iPad direly needs consolidated platform integration. Your analysis reflects that reality; mine anchors on hardware irrelevancy, tech specs being muffled into backstage small talks.
Thanks for the enlightenment...!
Consumers tend to renew their phones every 2 years and their computers every 4. We don't know how we consumers are going to act with the iPad. So I ask everyone, because I don't know, is the saturation cycle going to be 2, 3 or 4 years for the tablets?
They've already brought OneNote to iOS and the Office product group isn't denying that it will bring the rest. Why wouldn't MS bring Office? It would be a cash cow. Remember, MS is a software company first and foremost.
I'd say that anybody who seriously believed those "retina" display rumors are totally naive and gullible people. I'd love for it to be true, but it just isn't realistic, not at this time. Get real. Learn to distinguish between fantasy and reality.
I've been following Apple product releases for many years now, and it's not hard to notice certain trends after a while. When the iPad2 comes out, it will have some new good features and it will obviously be a considerable improvement over the iPad1 and it will sell well.
No matter which new features or how many new features are included in iPad2, a few whiners will still be there to whine about it not including a certain feature that the whiner finds particularly important to their egocentric needs.
The same exact thing will happen when the iPad3 and iPad4 come out and so on. As for me, I'm definitely getting an iPad2 as soon as they come out.
It is more important to have a better screen when you're reading the fine print on a phone. It would be fabulous to have a doubled-resolution iPad screen, but it is a luxury we can (and will probably have to) wait for.
Comments
Several things bother me about this "article".
1) I did some surfing (including my brokerage accounts news feeds) and cannot find any link to the "original" report: Concord Securities Ming-Chi Kuo
2) these are fairly "vanilla" specs that anyone could put together
3) the 5 million units for the 1st quarter reflects the fact that the 1st quarter is 1/3 gone: 7.5 x 2/3 == 5 million
4) 512 MB RAM seems to be a mismatch with the other hardware specs -- 1 GB would be more inline.
So, there is nothing new here -- just a rehash of bits from many of the stories that have been floating around for the last few weeks.
MEH
Agree. This story stinks on ice.
Better keep your DVD collection small if you really plan on doing this. Flash memory is very expensive and Flash memory beyond 128GB is not even being manufactured in the quantities that Apple would need even if the memory was very cheap.
I hear you and you might be right.
Steve Jobs at All Things D spoke about the tablet being part of the post PC era. If these tablet computers are going to be our primary tool on a regular basis, I think it should compete with PCs in many levels. I strongly think storage should be one of them.
If they can fit 256GB inside the new MacBook Air (knowing that more than 75% of the inside is occupied by battery), they just have to be able to at the very least fit half of that into the iPad.
Another thing to think about is, what model of iPad is the most popular one? Apple must be selling more of one model than any of the rest and I have a feeling (but I might be wrong) that the 16GB iPad is not it. I really think that this model will be terminated this next release. It feels exactly like buying a 4GB iPhone! Totally pointless for people who own a lot of content.
I really feel that if we could have a 128GB iPad, then we wouldn't necessarily spend money on an external hard drive to be carrying things around because it would all be on this one device.
I know storage is not the one reason to buy an iPad. It has many other benefits. But, more storage is just another reason to trade in a netbook, laptop, desktop or external hardrive for the iPad.
I'm on the same bandwagon with the iPad, and even though we upgraded our 3G's to the 4, if FIOS gets to us this year, we'll move to Verizon and get the 5. I wish though that Apple would offer a universal 3G model iPad instead of two models.
You are going to looooooove FiOS... it is fast.
1) I think you are confusing the fast app switching API that developers can easily use so their app comes back to the previous state with the Fast App Switcher, an iOS 4.0 interface for seeing all the recently used apps you’ve ever opened iOS in the order you’ve last opened them, from left to right.
2) Yes, when you turn off the iPad you are turning it off. I used the term “power cycle” just to be clear I didn’t mean disabling power to the display.
3) I have never found FAS to be convenient. I have pretty much every app on my home screen, expect for my 2nd page for new apps I’m still debating on keeping. I prefer the multi-tocuh swipes found in the 4.3 betas. It does the same thing as FAS, it cycles through your apps as they were last used without having to first double-tap the Home Button and then choose an app.
I have 138 apps, and I'm pretty sure that number will continue to increase, so it's often very convenient. In fact, the most recent work done on the number of apps the average iOS user has has been found to be 108. I'm not that far ahead of the curve after all.
i, too, am definitely sitting out this one if that's the kinda specs they will deliver. perhaps, i might get a xoom or something.
It's very silly to buy something just based on the hardware specs. I can assure you that my gen. 1 iPad is more than fast enough for almost everything. The OS has a lot to do with this, and iOs is much better than Android in this. What will you do when another Android tablet three months later has better specs than the Zoom? Will you then buy that?
No matter what specs those tablets will have, the iPad will still WORK better, and will have much better apps, as well as many more of them, in more categories. Many of the Android apps out there have been shown to be ripoff of other Android apps. dozens of apps from MS, for example are written by malware authors. the same thing for many other apps.
All in all, it's not worth it.
I hear you and you might be right.
Steve Jobs at All Things D spoke about the tablet being part of the post PC era. If these tablet computers are going to be our primary tool on a regular basis, I think it should compete with PCs in many levels. I strongly think storage should be one of them.
If they can fit 256GB inside the new MacBook Air (knowing that more than 75% of the inside is occupied by battery), they just have to be able to at the very least fit half of that into the iPad.
Another thing to think about is, what model of iPad is the most popular one? Apple must be selling more of one model than any of the rest and I have a feeling (but I might be wrong) that the 16GB iPad is not it. I really think that this model will be terminated this next release. It feels exactly like buying a 4GB iPhone! Totally pointless for people who own a lot of content.
I really feel that if we could have a 128GB iPad, then we wouldn't necessarily spend money on an external hard drive to be carrying things around because it would all be on this one device.
I know storage is not the one reason to buy an iPad. It has many other benefits. But, more storage is just another reason to trade in a netbook, laptop, desktop or external hardrive for the iPad.
Average selling price is $625.
Flash prices have remained high over the past 18 months.
You are going to looooooove FiOS... it is fast.
Yeah, sigh, tell me about it!
The thing that frustrates me about it is that many people who have it don't use FIOS Tv, and don't know or care about the speed.
Really? Rape?
That post was clearly someone very unaware of their use of language.
He did make me think about how people are going to react once the competition releases their warez.
Were it not for itunes and the app store, halo effect etc I'd say the Moto Xoom looks pretty good as a piece of hardware not to mention the specs RAM, HDMI, Cameras etc. I'd like to actually see one in person, but it really is fairly attractive overall. It could be stiff competition for the ipad. So too will the similarly spec'd playbook.
I love my ipad, but it is feeling old already. I don't like the casing, the round back is awkward and the silver is tired. The apps are now robust enough to deserve and require a great CPU/ GPU combo making my ipad V1 a little tweaky and slow-ish at times. It reminds me of my old the 1G iphone. We definitely ready for a refresh.
However, if ipadV2 has a crummy camera, no HDMI support and otherwise the same specs as BB or Moto I can see how there would be a question as to which to buy for someone who doesn't understand the value of Apple's app store, the quality of the apps themselves, itunes etc. It could give android and BB some traction.
Like I said tablets are basically big screens. For Apple to offer a vastly superior screen, similar specs as a moto or BB and even with less functional cameras, no HDMI etc they would still sell bazillions of them, no question. That's the kind of feature that is immediately obvious to a consumer.
I don't think you've got this quite right. EVERY app in that bar starts exactly where it was left off, and that's part of the definition of fast app switching.
I just tested your assertion. I started a game, moved to another app and moved back to the game. Yes, it was in the same state in which I left it.
I power cycled the phone. The game was in the fast switch area and so I opened it. The game started anew.
What this tells me is the fast switch area is really just stack of the most recently used apps. It says nothing about their state. Unless I'm holding it wrong.
I question why the bar is there is in the first place. Why can't simple access the apps from the spring board? You still have to press the home button.
Average selling price is $625.
Flash prices have remained high over the past 18 months.
Whatever they choose to price these at (this is just a question) would you guys not spend $899 for a 128GB iPad?
The current most expensive iPad is $829. Apple could totally sell a Wifi + 3G iPad with 128GB of flash storage for $899
It's very silly to buy something just based on the hardware specs. I can assure you that my gen. 1 iPad is more than fast enough for almost everything. The OS has a lot to do with this, and iOs is much better than Android in this. What will you do when another Android tablet three months later has better specs than the Zoom? Will you then buy that?
No matter what specs those tablets will have, the iPad will still WORK better, and will have much better apps, as well as many more of them, in more categories. Many of the Android apps out there have been shown to be ripoff of other Android apps. dozens of apps from MS, for example are written by malware authors. the same thing for many other apps.
All in all, it's not worth it.
I can see buying on HW specs if your also comparing price points AND the devices are using the same OS. As we?ve seen Android and WP7 have needed better HW specs just to do the same tasks. I think it was Wizard69 who stated Android 3.0 will finally have HW accelerated GUI. That?s a start, but when will Android 3.0 be released and how efficient will it be compared to mobile OSes that have had it for years.
Unlike the iPod market (and possibly the iPhone market, due to limited # of carriers), the iPad is not near saturation.
What does this mean?
It means that Apple can tap a huge market without requiring people to "upgrade" their current iPads. Only when the iPad approaches saturation (meaning those who would buy an iPad have already bought one) does Apple need to create huge upgrades with features that drive people to upgrade their product. And often the tipping point of an upgrade is 2 version delta.
Apple has been timing their feature improvement, major features perfectly in the past, so I'm not sure why they wouldn't know what they are doing with the iPad.
I would guess this new feature set will cause some upgrades (maybe not too many), but will drive sales for those who wait for ver2 of a product. So ver3 will cause large ver1 upgrades and a few ver2 upgrades and still drive new sales. Once ver4 is out, the market may be near saturated but by that time they have a user distribution of upgrades.
There is some benefit to having a slight spread in the user-base.
A neat scenario that simply puts my previous forecast to shame.
I figured Apple would out spec the competition in year two of the iPad, which is in fact year 1*of the nascent tablet market. My logic was based on strong arming tactics of sucking the oxygen out of the competing arguments set essentially on hardware specs. I had the iPhone 4 with Retina and the FaceTime/AirPlay hardware infrastructure as a precedent and as a prime reference.
But the contexts of these iOS devices are indeed very different in terms of development stages and market deployments. IPhone is a vector of platform maturity, iPad direly needs consolidated platform integration. Your analysis reflects that reality; mine anchors on hardware irrelevancy, tech specs being muffled into backstage small talks.
Thanks for the enlightenment...!
I don't agree about the display. While we all want an x2 Rez display, I can understand the difficulties of producing it at high volume. The pixels would be a quarter the size of the current ones, and how many dead ones would you accept? So far, my iPad has none.
I also disagree with the notion of a Pro model with a higher Rez screen. The worst thong Apple could do would be to bifurcate the line that way. Everyone must be able to use the same apps the same way on a new gen device. What you want is where Android has problems. Not good.
I have been thinking about this for a while.
I mostly agree that:
-- a 2x display ppi would be costly and have lower yield
-- bifurcating the line with a pro model is wrong, as they already have too many SKUs
Then, there is the unknown about the competition -- will MMI (or the others) have access to enough components and manufacturing capacity to produce the millions of units to provide real competition?
I have posted in other threads that Apple is in the catbird seat because of pre-buying components and reserving manufacturing facilities. Apple can milk the current iPad 1 for several months -- and release the iPad 2 when it make best sense from a profit, capability and delivery fulfillment perspective.
I think that is still true, as there really are no competitive offerings... just RSN.
Here's the thing that has been bugging me -- iPhone, and now the iPad (supposedly) will be refreshed on an annual basis.
Would it be to Apple's advantage to refresh on different than a calendar cycle...
It may be more realistic to refresh for a competitive advantage or when there is a technological breakthrough (e.g. higher yields on 2x ppi screens).
Maybe, some times an 18 mo refresh makes sense -- other times, 6 months.
I wonder...
A neat scenario that simply puts my previous forecast to shame.
I figured Apple would out spec the competition in year two of the iPad, which is in fact year 1*of the nascent tablet market. My logic was based on strong arming tactics of sucking the oxygen out of the competing arguments set essentially on hardware specs. I had the iPhone 4 with Retina and the FaceTime/AirPlay hardware infrastructure as a precedent and as a prime reference.
But the contexts of these iOS devices are indeed very different in terms of development stages and market deployments. IPhone is a vector of platform maturity, iPad direly needs consolidated platform integration. Your analysis reflects that reality; mine anchors on hardware irrelevancy, tech specs being muffled into backstage small talks.
Thanks for the enlightenment...!
Consumers tend to renew their phones every 2 years and their computers every 4. We don't know how we consumers are going to act with the iPad. So I ask everyone, because I don't know, is the saturation cycle going to be 2, 3 or 4 years for the tablets?
$699 = 32GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 32GB Wifi + 3G model)
$799 = 64GB Wifi + 3G (Cheaper than the current 64GB Wifi + 3G model)
$899 = 128GB Wifi + 3G (Only 70$ more than the most expensive iPad model)
Would you buy these iPads?
Will MS be dumb enough to do so?
They've already brought OneNote to iOS and the Office product group isn't denying that it will bring the rest. Why wouldn't MS bring Office? It would be a cash cow. Remember, MS is a software company first and foremost.
I've been following Apple product releases for many years now, and it's not hard to notice certain trends after a while. When the iPad2 comes out, it will have some new good features and it will obviously be a considerable improvement over the iPad1 and it will sell well.
No matter which new features or how many new features are included in iPad2, a few whiners will still be there to whine about it not including a certain feature that the whiner finds particularly important to their egocentric needs.
The same exact thing will happen when the iPad3 and iPad4 come out and so on. As for me, I'm definitely getting an iPad2 as soon as they come out.
No retina display? Disappointing. But oh well.
It is more important to have a better screen when you're reading the fine print on a phone. It would be fabulous to have a doubled-resolution iPad screen, but it is a luxury we can (and will probably have to) wait for.