Apple's iPad 2 launch predicted to have stronger sales but shorter lines

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Initial sales of the iPad 2 are expected to surpass the first-generation device, but numerous new points of distribution for Friday's launch are predicted to dilute lines of people.



Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray noted Tuesday that the original iPad launched at 221 U.S. Apple retail stores and most of Best Buy's about 1,100 American stores last year. The iPad 2 will debut with much greater availability, at more than 10,000 stores of retail partners in addition to 236 current Apple retail stores.



The iPad will also go on sale in the U.S. Friday at Walmart, Target, and AT&T and Verizon stores. Munster expects the new model to outsell its predecessor, which reached a million sales in just 28 days.



"Generally, the length of the lines at Apple retail stores on launch day have been a helpful early indication of demand," Munster wrote in a note to investors. "However, factors like online pre-orders, simultaneous international launches, weather, timing in the day and the day of the week can all impact a consumer's willingness to go stand in line, but may not necessarily be indicative of immediate purchase intentions."



Apple's launch and expansion of the iPad 2 will occur much faster than with the original iPad. Both the Wi-Fi-only and 3G-capable models will be available for purchase from day one, as opposed to 2010, when the 3G model launched a month later in the U.S.







International expansion will occur more quickly too, as Apple plans to have the iPad 2 available in 27 countries in the first two weeks. Last year, iPad shortages forced Apple to delay the international launch of its touchscreen tablet by a month.



Munster has predicted that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads in the device's launch quarter. That would easily best the 3.27 million iPads it sold in the same frame one year ago.



He also sees sales of the iPad 2 increasing to 5.6 million in its first full quarter of availability. During the company's fourth fiscal quarter of last year, it sold 4.19 million of the first-generation iPad.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 67
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 4,881member
    I think a lot of people are missing out on the cheapness of an upgrade for those of us who will sel the original iPad ( most).



    Most of last years 15M will upgrade, and the cost is just - if we stay with the same equivalent model - the cost of the depreciation of last years model. That seems to be about $200.
  • Reply 2 of 67
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,724member
    The "event lines" and early shortages generate free press and consumer excitement, but they can quickly become overplayed. I'm will be happy if Apple has the stock for a big intro...



    ...of course, if they have such strong demand that they sell out of even their boldest internal prediction, well, that would bee cool too!
  • Reply 3 of 67
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 18,348member
    Shorter lines? Apple is doomed!?



    (At least, so will go the tech headlines......)
  • Reply 4 of 67
    Where does everyone bet the shortest lines will be? Target seems like a good candidate. I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.
  • Reply 5 of 67
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,143member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Shorter lines? Apple is doomed!?



    (At least, so will go the tech headlines......)



    That's what happened with the Verizon iphone cause 9/10 of folks were buying online.



    So they cut that to the day off, meaning you won't get it until more like Monday and hope that most folks will just come into the store. Target et al never have as much as the Apple stores do.

    So folks rarely line up there. Or they do, within the first hour the store is sold out and off folks go to the Apple store hoping to get lucky
  • Reply 6 of 67
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post


    Where does everyone bet the shortest lines will be? Target seems like a good candidate. I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.



    I'm thinking Target, too. Not sure why...just seems lower profile. For some reason I imagine there might not even be lines at stores other than Apple. It's usually the fans who line up...(like me)...not the normal people, and I'd expect a huge proportion of apple fans to line up at Apple (which is why I won't be going there).
  • Reply 7 of 67
    porchlandporchland Posts: 478member
    Has anyone seen anything on a launch time for Target, Best Buy, etc.?



    Will it be 5 p.m. -- same as the Apple retail stores?
  • Reply 8 of 67
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,235member
    Quote:

    Munster has predicted that Apple will sell 5.5 million iPads in the device's launch quarter.



    Hell, 7 million people will buy iPad 2 just so they can use the SmartCover.
  • Reply 9 of 67
    maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member
    Screw the whole line thing. it is overplayed like someone mentioned before me.

    To much perception pimping.
  • Reply 10 of 67
    My biggest concern is 18 SKUs!



    I want the 32GB WiFi in Black.

    I'm sorry we only have the 64GB Verizon in white left.

    I think it is going to lead to a lot of frustration while supplies are constrained.
  • Reply 11 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dick applebaum View Post


    hell, 7 million people will buy ipad 2 just so they can use the smartcover. :d



    7m + 1. :d
  • Reply 12 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


    I think a lot of people are missing out on the cheapness of an upgrade for those of us who will sel the original iPad ( most).



    Most of last years 15M will upgrade, and the cost is just - if we stay with the same equivalent model - the cost of the depreciation of last years model. That seems to be about $200.



    I don't know that the average consumer is used to selling old electronics, most get passed down or thrown out... not put on eBay or Craigslist. That said I just sold my iPad 1 and look forward to the 2!
  • Reply 13 of 67
    markbmarkb Posts: 153member
    Quote:

    I'm thinking Target, too. Not sure why...just seems lower profile. For some reason I imagine there might not even be lines at stores other than Apple. It's usually the fans who line up...(like me)...not the normal people, and I'd expect a huge proportion of apple fans to line up at Apple (which is why I won't be going there).



    Has there been any confirmation that any other distribution point other than the Apple retail stores will have actual stock on hand on Friday?
  • Reply 14 of 67
    wigginwiggin Posts: 2,255member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    The "event lines" and early shortages generate free press and consumer excitement, but they can quickly become overplayed. I'm will be happy if Apple has the stock for a big intro...



    ...of course, if they have such strong demand that they sell out of even their boldest internal prediction, well, that would bee cool too!



    And last year's shortages were due, in part, to Apple really not knowing how strong the demand would be since it was an entirely new product. They wouldn't want to make 10s of millions of them and then find out they had another "hobby" on their hands. Their demand models should be much better this time around.
  • Reply 15 of 67
    jj720jj720 Posts: 3member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Porchland View Post


    Has anyone seen anything on a launch time for Target, Best Buy, etc.?



    Will it be 5 p.m. -- same as the Apple retail stores?



    Haven't seen anything on this, however I'm assuming they would all follow the 5:00 time that the Apple Stores are going by.
  • Reply 16 of 67
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 4,881member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by canyonblue737 View Post


    I don't know that the average consumer is used to selling old electronics, most get passed down or thrown out... not put on eBay or Craigslist. That said I just sold my iPad 1 and look forward to the 2!



    Yeah, well most get given away. However with the rise of Gazelle.com, etc. this is becoming very common.
  • Reply 17 of 67
    applestudapplestud Posts: 367member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post


    I would just order online but I'd like to play with it over the weekend.



    Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.
  • Reply 18 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post


    Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.



    LOL, so now they have magical insta-shipping technology? I don't think so.
  • Reply 19 of 67
    christophbchristophb Posts: 1,402member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post


    Knowing apple, you'll probably receive your order on the 11th.



    apple.com shows ordering starting on the 11th.
  • Reply 20 of 67
    applestudapplestud Posts: 367member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teejayvee View Post


    LOL, so now they have magical insta-shipping technology? I don't think so.



    LOL, they always ship the day before and products arrive on doorsteps on launch day. LOL nice try. Welcome to the site though.



    It appears that there will be no pre-orders for the iPad 2 though. When pre-orders are available, they always arrive on launch day.
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