JP Morgan: Apple's iPad 2 could cause 'bubble burst' for rival tablets

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  • Reply 21 of 88
    richysrichys Posts: 160member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    Beta was better... but it only had 60 minute tapes. They weren't long enough to record a movie.



    They eventually got longer tapes... but by that time VHS had already won.



    It's kinda like the Xoom... it's got great hardware... but it has no apps.



    Not sure why people keep banging on about the Xoom's great hardware.



    The screen is worse (poor viewing angles, colour and pixel grid); it's thicker and heavier (despite being more plasticky). Tegra 2 is comparable to the A5 and PowerVR chip; and its battery life in standy is about half that of the iPad 2.



    So, what's it got that the iPad doesn't?



    An MicroSD slot that doesn't yet work -- makes up for not having a 64GB model, I suppose.



    A barometer. WTF? Is this for all the tablet toting amateur meteorologists out there? Mainstream use case... /sarcasm.



    Double the RAM. Probably/possibly. But then Android seems to need to use it with it's less optimised multi-tasking approach.



    Slightly better cameras that strike me as a bit pointless on a tablet. Who needs anything better than a back camera that can support augmented reality apps, and in certain video calling situations?



    Oh, and the promise of a future upgrade to LTE at some point. Great. That's relevant to about 1% (disclaimer: stat totally pulled from my arse) of potential consumers. Not to mention what it might do to battery life (Exhibit A: EVO 4G, Exhibit B: HTC Thunderbolt).



    Personally, I'll go for the slimmer, more useful, and higher quality kit every time. Pointless specs are just, well, pointless.
  • Reply 22 of 88
    gctwnlgctwnl Posts: 278member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Using discounted build plan estimates to project tablet shipments for the year, the analyst claims that tablet makers will build approximately 65.1 million tablets in 2011. When compared against J.P. Morgan's estimates of 47.9 million tablets sold this year, companies could find themselves with as much as 51 percent oversupply in a worst case scenario.



    That is 51% for all manufacturers taken together. That might well be a few % for Apple and 80-90% for some other players. That sentence should have read "some companies could find themselves with a huge (far more than 50%) oversupply in a worst case scenario".
  • Reply 23 of 88
    cgc0202cgc0202 Posts: 624member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    I can't see anybody in their right mind buying a tablet if it's not called an iPad. Even though tablets are cheaper than most laptops and desktops, it still is a lot of money to most people, especially in these economic Obama times. And contrary to statements made by trolls, various fanboys and liars on the internet, people eventually vote with their wallets, and that's why the iPad is killing everybody else, and that's why it will continue to kill everybody else.



    I think that very few people are willing to take a huge gamble on other tablets, most of which probably won't even be around 12 months from now. Every other tablet released so far has practically been DOA. Other companies can pack in as much useless specs as they want into their tablets, it doesn't matter and the average person doesn't care. When it comes time to spend their hard earned money, people want the original and that's what they're going to buy. Few people are willing to take a huge gamble on something else, because that's exactly what they'd be doing, taking a huge gamble. They'd be better off going to Vegas with their money, as the odds are probably way better.



    When Apple first released the original iPad for $499, they just owned everybody and to quote Steve Jobs, their competitors were "flummoxed", and they still are. I also think that it's hilarious that Apple which has been known for having high quality, higher priced products now has a killer product that is cheaper than anybody else's product on the market.



    As for me, I'll be doing my part in contributing to burst the bubble, because I'll be picking up my new iPad soon enough. And millions and millions of other people will be doing the exact same thing.









    I try to avoid using terms like anyone, everybody, anybody. etc. that include or exlude the entire population of consumers.



    Not everyone will buy and iPad, and it is unikely that "nobody will buy the Xoom, or other tablets".



    I would not judge someone who sincerely believes on the merits of one product, over my own choices. For example, if someone buys into the Android system because they thought it was an "Open" system, we should accept their chices. I do not know where I first heard of the statement:



    We are prisoners of our space and time.



    CGC
  • Reply 24 of 88
    nceencee Posts: 857member
    Once Oprah tells the world that the iPad2, is NOW her favorite toy, how in hell is anyone else going to even think of competing?



    - Hype = Sales

    - TV appearances = Sales

    - Movie appearances = Sales

    - Word of mouth = Sales

    - Reviews = Sales

    - Depend = Sales

    - Lack of supply = Sales

    - Cool factor = Sales

    - it's an Apple = SALES!



    I'm sure we have all heard the saying "They are laughing their ass off, all the way to the bank!



    Skip
  • Reply 25 of 88
    aeolianaeolian Posts: 189member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


    I like that Apple is being aggressive too, on price aside from doing as much in other areas, including technical side. Without much subsidy from telecommunications companies, it is possible that the iPod2 scenario might happen.



    I am not sure exactly which is superior, the VHS or Beta recorder during the tape era??? Anyway, this is used as an example where supposedly the technically superior technology (VHS) was beaten by the Beta recorder untl the latter became univeral. I think the same upheaval is taking place in the competing "high definition" television technologies.



    Unlike in the early 1970-1990s, there are more companies now worldwide with great technical resouces with sufficient financial resources to be able to take a few beatings, but live on to continue the fight.



    There was a time when Japanese products were considered inferior (ca 1950s-1960s), but because of the interlocking of the financial-research and marketing system in Japan (through the Zaibatsus, they eventuallly eclipsed not only many of their American competitors but also their European competitors.



    What my Japanese professor was explaining to me was that at some time in the past, there is "One Japan" - not only involving the government and the Zaibatzus but one that was tacitly supported by the Japanese nation. Part of this was the Japanese pride of a people with a long history, but utterly humiliated by their defeat in the Pacific War in the 1940s.



    Then, I believe it was in the 1970s or thereabouts when products from Taiwan were considered technically inferior from Western and Japanese goods. Taiwanese are the same ethnic groups that were deposed during the Chiang Kai Tsec (spelling???) and Mao Tse Tung power struggle. Many fled to either Taiwan or Hongkong, some migrated to the Western Pacific rim. But, culturally they consider themselves "One People" too -- Chinese with very long shared history.



    If you study the industrialization of Taiwan, and Mainland China, you will find that the practical Chinese power makers set aside politics and used the vast resources of mainland China to forward their goals, economically.



    These cooperation and collaboration among Chinese, as "One People" is the reason why mainland China today is the second largest economic empire in the world. I do not think we would be alive to see it, but at the pace things are going in the United States (political gridlock coupled with extreme polarization). there is no "One America", I won't be surprised if China would displace the US as the number one economic power in the world within the second half of this century, if not sooner.



    Don't discount the Koreans too.



    The point here is that the competitors of Apple from these countries may not be doing as well now, but unlike Western companies, many Asian companies have the backing of their national industrialists and financial moguls, but also their people.



    Let's not forget for example, that Apple is very dependent on Asian (China, Taiwan, Japan and Korea) techno-industrial empire. All it would take is a Chinese who has the vision akin to Steve Jobs, or some other builders of current multi-nationals. Unlike their parents, many Chinese of the elite classs have been educated or lived and traveled extensively in the Western countries. Even Steve Jobs have been influence by Asian culture in terms of his easthetics.



    CGC



    It was Sony's Beta that was FAR better than VHS. That's why people had their money on HD-DVD this past time around. I think Sony won this recent one because they included a Blu-ray player in every new game console that was updated frequently.



    Blu-ray is just a bag of hurt though license wise...
  • Reply 26 of 88
    aeolianaeolian Posts: 189member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    Beta was better... but it only had 60 minute tapes. They weren't long enough to record a movie.



    They eventually got longer tapes... but by that time VHS had already won.



    It's kinda like the Xoom... it's got great hardware... but it has no apps.



    Thanks Michael, I forgot about the fact that they couldn't record an entire movie. I was very young. As soon as I read your post I remember dear old dad doing the two tape movies!



    Memories....
  • Reply 27 of 88
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


    I try to avoid using terms like anyone, everybody, anybody. etc. that include or exlude the entire population of consumers.



    When I write anyone, everybody, anybody etc., I obviously do not mean 100% of all people. I am referring to the majority. I'm a fan of hyperbole. And I don't believe that I wrote that "everybody" will buy an iPad or that "nobody" will buy a Xoom.



    I'm sure that there are even a few unfortunate souls who purchased the JoJo tablet when it came out.
  • Reply 28 of 88
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,916member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cgc0202 View Post


    Now that you mentioned Xoom, I am not that convinced that it is really technically superior because it has this and that.



    Whoa.... slow down. I'm not on Team Xoom. Maybe i shouldn't have used the word "better" but here's my point:



    My comparison was to show that Beta had better quality than VHS... but it was missing other important things like longer tapes.



    Just like the Xoom is fine for some people... but it's missing all the other stuff that make the iPad great... apps, ecosystem, accessories, etc.



    Sorry for the confusion!



    I played with the Xoom at Best Buy... but I'd never buy one.



    @RichyS - this was for you too
  • Reply 29 of 88
    carmissimocarmissimo Posts: 837member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ncee View Post


    Once Oprah tells the world that the iPad2, is NOW her favorite toy, how in hell is anyone else going to even think of competing?



    - Hype = Sales

    - TV appearances = Sales

    - Movie appearances = Sales

    - Word of mouth = Sales

    - Reviews = Sales

    - Depend = Sales

    - Lack of supply = Sales

    - Cool factor = Sales

    - it's an Apple = SALES!



    I'm sure we have all heard the saying "They are laughing their ass off, all the way to the bank!



    Skip



    Bottom line is that the competition had years to get the tablet market going and got absolutely nowhere. Instead competitors were giving us awful netbooks that appealed solely because they were so inexpensive.



    If Apple has an advantage in this market it comes by it honestly. It's simple, really. Apple has put iPads into people's hands that are useful in many ways right out of the box. From Day 1 iPad owners had all sorts of functions they could perform with the device and it was easy for many to figure the thing out because it was using an interface language that had grown familiar via the iPod line. Also, realizing that previous tablet attempts had failed, Apple was smart enough to bring their device in at a compelling price point because had the iPad not sold exceptionally well, it might well have meant the end to attempts at launching the tablet form factor.



    The competition had its shot and blew it. Now Apple calls the shots.
  • Reply 30 of 88
    cpr1cpr1 Posts: 41member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Michael Scrip View Post


    Beta was better... but it only had 60 minute tapes. They weren't long enough to record a movie.



    They eventually got longer tapes... but by that time VHS had already won.



    It's kinda like the Xoom... it's got great hardware... but it has no apps.



    While true, that the tapes were shorter, that was not the main reason that Beta lost the consumer war. The main reason was that Sony was short-sighted and refused to license their technology. JVC, on the other hand, licensed their VHS technology to anyone and everyone (even Sony, eventually). The price/feature competition amongst the VHS brands made it increasingly difficult for Sony to compete. Those who knew the difference still bought Betamax, but that market was too small to support continued production. And Betacam, a superior version of Betamax (with tapes running faster - only 30 minute cassettes) was the broadcast standard for many years.
  • Reply 31 of 88
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    If people beat Apple at all it's on price. That is how the Android phones sneaked in, on lower priced handsets. But that won't happen with the iPad, for a while at least, since Apple are being very aggressive on price.



    I wouldn't exactly use the term: "very aggressive". I would say 'aggressive'. If the iPad 2 came in at $399 for the 16GB Wi-Fi version, that would be "very aggressive".
  • Reply 32 of 88
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    I'm not sure what 100% means here



    I'd say he means 100% extra. As in double. But he should have just said 200%.
  • Reply 33 of 88
    irelandireland Posts: 17,798member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post


    Everyone, including myself, was caught off guard with how successful iPad 1 would be. Even with all the hype I think people are still under estimating how successful the iPad 2 will be. Apple might just own the entire portable computer market by the time iPad 3 rolls around. And this is coming from a Windows guy...



    What % is the cut off point for owning the tablet market?
  • Reply 34 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post


    ...Even though tablets are cheaper than most laptops and desktops, it still is a lot of money to most people, especially in these economic Obama times. And contrary...









    Maybe I'm reading something into your post that you didn't intend, but is it your assertion that the Great Recession the world has experienced is somehow Obama's fault?
  • Reply 35 of 88
    haruhikoharuhiko Posts: 46member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    I wouldn't exactly use the term: "very aggressive". I would say 'aggressive'. If the iPad 2 came in at $399 for the 16GB Wi-Fi version, that would be "very aggressive".



    http://store.apple.com/us/browse/hom...co=MjEzODE4NzQ

    True. The iPad is $399 for 16GB Wi-Fi version .
  • Reply 36 of 88
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,404member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ncee View Post


    Once Oprah tells the world that the iPad2, is NOW her favorite toy, how in hell is anyone else going to even think of competing?



    - Hype = Sales

    - TV appearances = Sales

    - Movie appearances = Sales

    - Word of mouth = Sales

    - Reviews = Sales

    - Depend = Sales

    - Lack of supply = Sales

    - Cool factor = Sales

    - it's an Apple = SALES!



    I'm sure we have all heard the saying "They are laughing their ass off, all the way to the bank!



    Skip



    You've hit on the single-most important set of inimitable attributes of the iPad.



    Game. Set. Match.
  • Reply 37 of 88
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,728member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    I am very curious to see how the tablet market develops over the next year.



    I know a lot of Android partisans are confident that Android based tablets will "take over" soon enough, "just like they did with phones." But the tablet market is different from the phone market in several key ways:



    --Most tablets won't be sold with subsidies, so they'll have to compete at their actual retail price. Apple is clearly doing very well here.



    --Therefore they won't have cell carriers as a point of distribution, and will have to compete for shelf space at consumer electronic retailers (most of whom do a very poor job of providing the customer of any sense of what the user experience might be like, putting non-functional or poorly maintained models up for display). Again, Apple has a huge advantage in being able to use their own retail stores to show off iPads to their best advantage, not to mention their relatively controlled presentation at Best Buy. Not to mention Target, Walmart, et al. Apple probably has the largest retail exposure of any CE company, at this point.



    --More generally, the explosion of Android handsets is pretty easily explainable as a combination of steep subsidies, ubiquity, and the general growth of the smartphone market (which Apple of course created the demand for in the first place). I think it's a mistake to assume that, just because lots and lots of people have gone into the cell store to get a new phone on contract and been steered to an Android device, that there will be any similar mechanism in play for tablets. People aren't going to go to the cell store because they "need" a tablet (only to discover that 90% of what's available is running Android), they're going to go to Best Buy or Walmart or Target because they want a tablet. And in every one of those places there are going to be iPads, at as good or better prices, probably in better working order. And then beyond that all those Apple stores with iPads being shown in the best possible light.



    We'll see, of course, but I think Android fans looking for a repeat of the phone ramp-up are going to be disappointed.



    Good points all around. Meanwhile the Android fans (... is it just my experience or has anyone else noticed they seem all be the same people who were the anti-Apple pro Microsoft nerds in their former lives?) have a mantra "Walled Garden" it seems to be all they can say, over and over and over ....
  • Reply 38 of 88
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,728member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    What % is the cut off point for owning the tablet market?



    It should not be about volumes although the press love that. It should be about profits or lack thereof from any given market. Using those metrics Apple already own the touch phone and touch tablet market by a long way.
  • Reply 39 of 88
    tipootipoo Posts: 1,142member
    Quote:

    expected to maintain the lion's share



    Oh you
  • Reply 40 of 88
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,728member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Paroxysm View Post


    Maybe I'm reading something into your post that you didn't intend, but is it your assertion that the Great Recession the world has experienced is somehow Obama's fault?



    If a certain news channel (stretching the definition of the term there slightly) says it is then it must be true ... right?
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