Don't be surprised if Apple sells 1M of iPad 2 this weekend, analyst says

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
With expanded availability, two colors and a buzzworthy magnetic case, the iPad 2 could more than triple last year's sales debut and reach a million units over the weekend, one analyst believes.



Brian White with Ticonderoga Securities said in a note to investors on Friday that he "would not be surprised" if sales of the iPad 2 reach 1 million over the weekend. That would easily best last year's sales of 1 million in just 28 days.



White said the sales pace will also likely continue into the coming weeks, as Apple plans to launch the iPad 2 in 26 more countries on March 25. Friday's 5 p.m. sales start applies to the U.S. only.



He noted signs of strong demand already, with online orders not shipping for 2 or 3 weeks, and lines forming at stores around the country. The first customers will get their hands on the iPad at 5 p.m. local time via all 236 Apple retail stores, and about 10,000 other locations, including Best Buy, Walmart, Target, and carriers AT&T and Verizon Wireless.



The iPad 2 will have a stronger launch than the iPad thanks in part to increased availability, but also because of the option of a white model, and the new magnetic "Smart Cases" that White believes will "create a bit of a buzz with customers."







White has projected the iPad to conservatively generate $16.92 billion in revenue with sales of 27.36 million units in fiscal 2011. That would mean iPad sales would contribute nearly a third of Apple's $36.8 billion forecast incremental revenue.



White also sees the iPad 2 launch driving a "halo effect" around other Apple products. Free publicity in the news from sales of the iPad 2 will drive demand for other products, like iPhones and Macs, he said.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 38
    boeyc15boeyc15 Posts: 986member
    Wow!



    And wow!



    Oh and first , wish I was first in line, now I might be shutout for a few weeks, sigh
  • Reply 2 of 38
    If one analyst says Apple will sell 600,000 then another analyst has to say Apple will sell 1,000,000.
  • Reply 3 of 38
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    And neither one could be correct.
  • Reply 4 of 38
    andyappleandyapple Posts: 152member
    Another thing to remember is that last year's iPad debut was of only the Wi-Fi model; this year the 3G is being offered as well and on both major carriers here in the States. So I would be surprised if Apple does not sell at least a million over this weekend.
  • Reply 5 of 38
    wgb113wgb113 Posts: 22member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by andyapple View Post


    Another thing to remember is that last year's iPad debut was of only the Wi-Fi model; this year the 3G is being offered as well and on both major carriers here in the States. So I would be surprised if Apple does not sell at least a million over this weekend.



    Long line here @ the Wilmington DE store.
  • Reply 6 of 38
    wheeleswheeles Posts: 36member
    And to think these guys get paid for plucking numbers out of their backsides. Even if they get it wildly wrong, nobody docks their pay.



    Why don't we all have a guess? I'm saying 400k for the weekend.
  • Reply 7 of 38
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 2,475member
    How many people will order now and cancel before shipping?
  • Reply 8 of 38
    Wonder if eBay will have any good buys on the used ones now?
  • Reply 9 of 38
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,755member
    Quote:

    The iPad 2 will have a stronger launch than the iPad thanks in part to increased availability, but also because of the option of a white model, and the new magnetic "Smart Cases" that White believes will "create a bit of a buzz with customers."



    I don't know how this argument can be made. Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!



    Furthermore, it appears that this same issue may be repeated with the iPad2. If supply is limited in the next week or two, as the slipping online shipping times indicates, it may be quite a while before we ever find out how many iPads are in demand after a release!
  • Reply 10 of 38
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,755member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wheeles View Post


    And to think these guys get paid for plucking numbers out of their backsides. Even if they get it wildly wrong, nobody docks their pay.



    Why don't we all have a guess? I'm saying 400k for the weekend.



    Clearly you are counting on that whole no consequences for being wrong thing!



    I would be very surprised if apple doesn't easily move twice that by Sunday.
  • Reply 11 of 38
    cmf2cmf2 Posts: 1,427member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    I don't know how this argument can be made. Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!



    Furthermore, it appears that this same issue may be repeated with the iPad2. If supply is limited in the next week or two, as the slipping online shipping times indicates, it may be quite a while before we ever find out how many iPads are in demand after a release!



    Apple may have supply issues again, but their production volumes are likely much higher because they now know the kind of demand they can expect and they've had a year to improve on the production techniques for many of the parts.



    Even if sales are supply limited, which it appears they will be, I'd expect much greater sales numbers.
  • Reply 12 of 38
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 754member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    ...Initial sales numbers of the original iPad had nothing to do with demand and everything to do with supply. Once demand outstrips supply, additional demand is irrelevant until supply increases. If Apple doesn't have them to sell, they cannot be bought!



    Problem is, we don't know how much of a supply is out there or on its way. It's certainly conceivable that they could have a million or more available to purchase from retail outlets this weekend.



    Wouldn't that be something!
  • Reply 13 of 38
    tjwaltjwal Posts: 404member
    Hmmm. Apple sells but doesn't ship, Samsung ships but doesn't sell.\
  • Reply 14 of 38
    foobarfoobar Posts: 103member
    It's always the same with those analysts on Apple launches... they're just trying to top each other.

    It was the same with the first iPhone or first iPad. Eventually the numbers were ridiculously high. And even though the products were highly successful, they came nowhere near those numbers.



    They are trying to manipulate the stock market. Up now, and then down later with the real, moderate numbers.
  • Reply 15 of 38
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,755member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cmf2 View Post


    Apple may have supply issues again, but their production volumes are likely much higher because they now know the kind of demand they can expect and they've had a year to improve on the production techniques for many of the parts.



    Even if sales are supply limited, which it appears they will be, I'd expect much greater sales numbers.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sacto Joe View Post


    Problem is, we don't know how much of a supply is out there or on its way. It's certainly conceivable that they could have a million or more available to purchase from retail outlets this weekend.



    Wouldn't that be something!



    I am in complete agreement. I assume Apple had more supply built up before this launch and I am getting the feeling that they may still have trouble keeping up. Their performance of late has been nothing short of astonishing!
  • Reply 16 of 38
    macnycmacnyc Posts: 342member
    Mob scene at Apple stores, Best Buy, here in NYC. Might have better luck With AT&T or Verizon.
  • Reply 17 of 38
    Apple stock has high volatility, and investors make money on talking up Apple, then selling it high, talking it down, then buying it again on the low side, then talking it up again.



    The 600k guy has either less greedy investors than the 1M guy's investors or his investors bought lower than the 1M guy, who is talking Apple higher so Apple's stock will add a couple of extra points.



    Just investors making money by doing nothing useful.



    PS: Investors don't care and don't know about Apple products.
  • Reply 18 of 38
    juandljuandl Posts: 228member
    I say 1,000,050
  • Reply 19 of 38
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,312member
    My guess is 26M this weekend. 28m to the end of year.
  • Reply 20 of 38
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post


    My guess is 26M this weekend. 28m to the end of year.



    i'm not sure which would be outrageous -- if your M means thousand or million (MM is the million denomination in my industry)
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