He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.
No doubt he's being conservative with the estimate, which is prudent. Looks much better for Apple when they beat expectations. But they won't have 95% of the market either.
There are some parts of the world where Apple either doesn't effectively compete in or doesn't have a strong presence (areas of China for instance). Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage. Some people just aren't going to like what Apple is offering, and don't see the iPad advantages as such. For instance I have a coworker that bought one of those win7 Asus Eeee slates. It costs $1200 but it does run a desktop OS and has a core i5 cpu and more ram/storage. Sure its a beast, way too heavy, thick, and craptastic battery life (3 hours lol), but he doesn't care about those issues, or the fact that his so-called tablet is just a notebook sans keyboard and trackpad.
I think its fair to estimate that Apple will have 80-90% market share at the end of the year though. 75% if more than less people opted for either really cheap or overpriced tablets, but I would bet that Apple will end up somewhere in the 82-85% marketshare total and hold that for the foreseeable future.
I was among the first to order at 4:03 in the am EST and I still get "not yet shipped" at the store....grrr
I went on a quest to find one on Friday and Saturday only to run in to lines that were bigger than what the store stock was. Best buy and at&t were completely sold out in a matter of minutes, including accessories.
If they had a million at hand I'm sure they sold it. If not, they underestimated demand big time
"Amazing" is pretty lame though... isn't that a 90's cliche word?
The fandroids are green with envy and will probably try to spin this as iSheep and all that nonsense. The difference with Android phones was that they were subsidized by the carriers and they had tons of 2 for 1 sales. Tablets are different, and the way the android offerings are, many parties are involved and that way they all want a piece of the pie. Price will be an issue for a long time to come.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?
He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.
Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.
Off topic: This year will mark the 5th iteration of the iPhone. At some point we have to expect Apple to diversify the line, even though that would mean creating a new fork in the iOS/CocoaTouch UI. The iPod isn’t a good measure since they didn’t share an App Store or SDK.
Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.
I would be surprised if those cheap tablets, combined, sell more units than the iPad 2.
Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.
Exactly! As for the people who do buy the cheap tablets, will they be satisfied with them when most of the apps they want don't work because they're so weak and when the build quality is so cheap? If anything, it'll give Android a worse reputation than Windows!
What can a cheap tablet do that'll be adequate? Perhaps reading, but if people are in the market for a cheap device for reading, they'll probably go with a Kindle or Nook.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
Foxconn can only make so many. They're still ramping up, and that takes months. There's no way Apple could have waited any longer with other tablets showing up.
Android fans are all about the specs. They raised so much dust just about how Xoom is more superior due to the extra 512MB of RAM, just to get a bucket of cold water in the face after all the reviews and benchmarks showed them that the iPad 2 has smoked the Xoom.
Now they are going to be quiet until the next Android tablet comes out in 6 - 12 months, and then they'll start barging about how their precious tablet is much more superior.
One thing I found funny is that the thickness of the Xoom is the same as the iPad 1, down to a mm.... Who is copying who? I'll give the competition six months to an year to catchup with the software and hardware updates.
Yeah, I can guarantee the next significant Android tablet will be a lot thinner now, haha!
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).
apples and oranges. It's better to compare Apple to HP or Acer than Microsoft... Microsoft makes zero personal computers. It makes/steals SW.
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Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use).
The problem is that the smartphone market is a hyper growing market. Apple said it would be happy with _1%_ of the entire (dumb, feature, and smart phone market). It now is the largest maker of phones (by profit) in the world, and makes more $$ than all android manufacturers combined. I think they will be happy staying there.
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Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category
user experience is the only category that matters to consumer purchasers... This is all about 'just works' vs the old windows model of 'mass configuration.' You're now in the 'billions' of units sold, and the critical thing is 'the next time I make a call, the next time I connect to the Internet... the next time install software.... it has to '_just_work_'
Of course, it doesn't matter that Apple blows away the competition in graphics performance (you don't bend pipes on tablet.... but you do move voxels....
You don't see Apple maintaining that cost/performance lead? How do you see any manufacturer getting the sophistication of OS/chipdesign/FWdesign/mass-production to a point that their costs are well below Apples? Samsung maybe.... but how does that make for developer to take advantage across the entire android line.
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, and better quad core units are on the way)
and so is time travel and unicorns. But really, Apple has an advantage in that it can also add quad processors optimized for only their code and systems [nice to be a chip and HW designer as well as the FW and OS coder]
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[....] Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
MS was not free, closed and didn't work well, and it beat Apple in 92.... Linux is free, open and works very well, and has what % of the PC market? Exactly how you justify that statement with logic, as the facts seem to be confusing? Either argue one point or the other. Free/Open/Good will take over the world... just like...? wait... I have no example of that... Apple will fail just like when MS pushed 'free/open/good' Windows... Wait... it wasn't? Hmmmm... Apple will fail because they can't keep up.... err, what... this is 7.5 9X faster than it's last device? errr.... Apple is too expensive! Wait? no 10" device has been released with a 2 year cost of ownership less than the iPad?
Hmmm... Exactly why will Apple _fail_?
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Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.
Of course he's worried about it. He has no monopoly on the market. :-). Apple must innovate or suffer the consequences. btw... I'm worried about mosquitos... am I afraid they will kill me... only if I'm not constantly making sure that the risk is minimized. And the best way to beat mosquitos is to move faster than they can.
Key point. Apple is laser focused in 2011 (more like focused on 2013) vs 1990. Tell me exactly what one business Google is in? Linux? Samsung? HP? RIM? When it comes to _PERSONAL COMPUTING_ Apple seems to be the only one that has a singular focus. That to me is why companies like Oracle, Starbucks, and McDonalds succeed.
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[....]if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year).
and how do you see carriers [the impetus of android on the phone] being able to sell a non-phone device on a 900% year over year growth rate? On their good looks? Face it... you've got 30 flavors of Android, across 10 HW vendors, and countless carriers and 'care and feeding' ecosystems. You've got 3 flavors of iOS now, across 1 HW vendor, with 1 standalone ecosystem (mobile me, ITMS, appstore) . I think Apple will hold it's own at 50%+ of the 'personal/portable smart device' [internet enabled phones, media players, and 'tablets'], and is the major HW manufacturer in each category. Apple has a physical and online retail presence, a viable ecommerce system arguably better than Amazon, a better supply chain, and brand recognition, and a unified customer experience process. Name one other store that can do that? Best Buy? ATT? Fry's? Amazon? Ubuntu? Froogle?
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in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, [.... but ]If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
That's just an opinion. It has no basis in fact, as you proved yourself with the Microsoft PC vs Linux argument.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
I think you just nailed it. They are probably holding stock so they can launch it internationally on the 26th. It would be silly of them to hold stock just for hype. They'd probably want the sales! I do think they have supply issues for the screens as I heard from people who buy them for repairs.
I wonder what RIM is thinking right about now. Put a subpar product/tablet with subpar software and ecosystem like the rushed Curves and Storms when the iPhone came out?
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
What you are forgetting is that it is all about the money, and Apple makes the most money in computers, media players and tablets whether they dominate marketshare or not.
Analyst Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan also sent out a note to investors Monday in reaction to the iPad 2 launch. He believes the early success of the iPad 2 is a sign of a "global tablet bubble."
The bubble would only be the oversupply of competitor's products that aren't selling.
The iPhone is the #1 selling phone, no phone sells more. Why are people even bothering replying to that guy? What he writes is not even factually true.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).
Apple never had a lead in the Pc market, it got own from the start by MS-DOS
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Originally Posted by captbilly
Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world
Smartphone was dominated by RIM, where are you getting your numbers from?!?
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Originally Posted by captbilly
But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way)
Not according to the benchmarks I have seen. In fact, the ipad 2 beats the crap out of the Xoom in every test they ran
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Originally Posted by captbilly
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.
That is true, SF does seem to worry about Android, and this is why they are firing on all cylinders in hardware performance, software and prices. They want to make sure they wont loose market share to cheap android hardware.
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Originally Posted by captbilly
in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs.
Not going to happen has long has Apple fights back, this looks more like the ipod market all over again. Apple is freaking out at the idea of loosing a market again and they have a 60 billions cash pileup. Trust me, not going to happen.
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Originally Posted by captbilly
I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do)
Tell that to the 10 year old with a limited budget that just can?t afford to pay a monthly fee.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Talk about revising history to build a straw man!
I was around during those days to experience this period first hand. I owned an IBM PC, IBM PC-XT and and IBM PC-jr. Apple never had a dominant market share of personal computers, and it was certainly not a Mac vs. Windows market.
IBM was the 800lb. gorilla in the room that drove adoption of Microsoft OS products. Even the clones (Compaq) had to be nearly 100% IBM compatible to survive. For years the question was "Is this IBM compatible?"
Android doesn't have a modern "IBM" relentlessly driving adoption of their OS. To compare the early days of the PC era with the early days of the Modern Tablet era is simply a fallacy.
Comments
He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.
No doubt he's being conservative with the estimate, which is prudent. Looks much better for Apple when they beat expectations. But they won't have 95% of the market either.
There are some parts of the world where Apple either doesn't effectively compete in or doesn't have a strong presence (areas of China for instance). Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage. Some people just aren't going to like what Apple is offering, and don't see the iPad advantages as such. For instance I have a coworker that bought one of those win7 Asus Eeee slates. It costs $1200 but it does run a desktop OS and has a core i5 cpu and more ram/storage. Sure its a beast, way too heavy, thick, and craptastic battery life (3 hours lol), but he doesn't care about those issues, or the fact that his so-called tablet is just a notebook sans keyboard and trackpad.
I think its fair to estimate that Apple will have 80-90% market share at the end of the year though. 75% if more than less people opted for either really cheap or overpriced tablets, but I would bet that Apple will end up somewhere in the 82-85% marketshare total and hold that for the foreseeable future.
I was among the first to order at 4:03 in the am EST and I still get "not yet shipped" at the store....grrr
I went on a quest to find one on Friday and Saturday only to run in to lines that were bigger than what the store stock was. Best buy and at&t were completely sold out in a matter of minutes, including accessories.
If they had a million at hand I'm sure they sold it. If not, they underestimated demand big time
"Amazing" is pretty lame though... isn't that a 90's cliche word?
The fandroids are green with envy and will probably try to spin this as iSheep and all that nonsense. The difference with Android phones was that they were subsidized by the carriers and they had tons of 2 for 1 sales. Tablets are different, and the way the android offerings are, many parties are involved and that way they all want a piece of the pie. Price will be an issue for a long time to come.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.
Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.
Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?
He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.
Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.
Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.
I would be surprised if those cheap tablets, combined, sell more units than the iPad 2.
Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.
Exactly! As for the people who do buy the cheap tablets, will they be satisfied with them when most of the apps they want don't work because they're so weak and when the build quality is so cheap? If anything, it'll give Android a worse reputation than Windows!
What can a cheap tablet do that'll be adequate? Perhaps reading, but if people are in the market for a cheap device for reading, they'll probably go with a Kindle or Nook.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
Foxconn can only make so many. They're still ramping up, and that takes months. There's no way Apple could have waited any longer with other tablets showing up.
Q: How many iPad 2's did Apple sell opening weekend?
A: All of them.
The question is really how many Apple has been able to manufacture to date, not how much demand there was.
I ordered 2 online at the Apple store.
I waited 3rd in line at a local Target for an hour to see if any ticket holders were no shows.
During that hour, Target sold 2 iPad 1s -- in addition to the iPad 2s to the 15 ticket holders.
So, some resellers are still selling iPad 1s at the same price as the Apple Store.
Android fans are all about the specs. They raised so much dust just about how Xoom is more superior due to the extra 512MB of RAM, just to get a bucket of cold water in the face after all the reviews and benchmarks showed them that the iPad 2 has smoked the Xoom.
Now they are going to be quiet until the next Android tablet comes out in 6 - 12 months, and then they'll start barging about how their precious tablet is much more superior.
One thing I found funny is that the thickness of the Xoom is the same as the iPad 1, down to a mm.... Who is copying who?
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).
apples and oranges. It's better to compare Apple to HP or Acer than Microsoft... Microsoft makes zero personal computers. It makes/steals SW.
Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use).
The problem is that the smartphone market is a hyper growing market. Apple said it would be happy with _1%_ of the entire (dumb, feature, and smart phone market). It now is the largest maker of phones (by profit) in the world, and makes more $$ than all android manufacturers combined. I think they will be happy staying there.
Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category
user experience is the only category that matters to consumer purchasers... This is all about 'just works' vs the old windows model of 'mass configuration.' You're now in the 'billions' of units sold, and the critical thing is 'the next time I make a call, the next time I connect to the Internet... the next time install software.... it has to '_just_work_'
Of course, it doesn't matter that Apple blows away the competition in graphics performance (you don't bend pipes on tablet.... but you do move voxels....
You don't see Apple maintaining that cost/performance lead? How do you see any manufacturer getting the sophistication of OS/chipdesign/FWdesign/mass-production to a point that their costs are well below Apples? Samsung maybe.... but how does that make for developer to take advantage across the entire android line.
, and better quad core units are on the way)
and so is time travel and unicorns. But really, Apple has an advantage in that it can also add quad processors optimized for only their code and systems [nice to be a chip and HW designer as well as the FW and OS coder]
[....] Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
MS was not free, closed and didn't work well, and it beat Apple in 92.... Linux is free, open and works very well, and has what % of the PC market? Exactly how you justify that statement with logic, as the facts seem to be confusing? Either argue one point or the other. Free/Open/Good will take over the world... just like...? wait... I have no example of that... Apple will fail just like when MS pushed 'free/open/good' Windows... Wait... it wasn't? Hmmmm... Apple will fail because they can't keep up.... err, what... this is 7.5 9X faster than it's last device? errr.... Apple is too expensive! Wait? no 10" device has been released with a 2 year cost of ownership less than the iPad?
Hmmm... Exactly why will Apple _fail_?
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.
Of course he's worried about it. He has no monopoly on the market. :-). Apple must innovate or suffer the consequences. btw... I'm worried about mosquitos... am I afraid they will kill me... only if I'm not constantly making sure that the risk is minimized. And the best way to beat mosquitos is to move faster than they can.
Key point. Apple is laser focused in 2011 (more like focused on 2013) vs 1990. Tell me exactly what one business Google is in? Linux? Samsung? HP? RIM? When it comes to _PERSONAL COMPUTING_ Apple seems to be the only one that has a singular focus. That to me is why companies like Oracle, Starbucks, and McDonalds succeed.
[....]if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year).
and how do you see carriers [the impetus of android on the phone] being able to sell a non-phone device on a 900% year over year growth rate? On their good looks? Face it... you've got 30 flavors of Android, across 10 HW vendors, and countless carriers and 'care and feeding' ecosystems. You've got 3 flavors of iOS now, across 1 HW vendor, with 1 standalone ecosystem (mobile me, ITMS, appstore) . I think Apple will hold it's own at 50%+ of the 'personal/portable smart device' [internet enabled phones, media players, and 'tablets'], and is the major HW manufacturer in each category. Apple has a physical and online retail presence, a viable ecommerce system arguably better than Amazon, a better supply chain, and brand recognition, and a unified customer experience process. Name one other store that can do that? Best Buy? ATT? Fry's? Amazon? Ubuntu? Froogle?
in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, [.... but ]If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
That's just an opinion. It has no basis in fact, as you proved yourself with the Microsoft PC vs Linux argument.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
Dude, is this you? Seriously.
I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.
I think you just nailed it. They are probably holding stock so they can launch it internationally on the 26th. It would be silly of them to hold stock just for hype. They'd probably want the sales! I do think they have supply issues for the screens as I heard from people who buy them for repairs.
Best
Massive lead? Yes. Insurmountable? No.
Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.
What you are forgetting is that it is all about the money, and Apple makes the most money in computers, media players and tablets whether they dominate marketshare or not.
Analyst Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan also sent out a note to investors Monday in reaction to the iPad 2 launch. He believes the early success of the iPad 2 is a sign of a "global tablet bubble."
The bubble would only be the oversupply of competitor's products that aren't selling.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).
Apple never had a lead in the Pc market, it got own from the start by MS-DOS
Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world
Smartphone was dominated by RIM, where are you getting your numbers from?!?
But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way)
Not according to the benchmarks I have seen. In fact, the ipad 2 beats the crap out of the Xoom in every test they ran
Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.
That is true, SF does seem to worry about Android, and this is why they are firing on all cylinders in hardware performance, software and prices. They want to make sure they wont loose market share to cheap android hardware.
in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs.
Not going to happen has long has Apple fights back, this looks more like the ipod market all over again. Apple is freaking out at the idea of loosing a market again and they have a 60 billions cash pileup. Trust me, not going to happen.
I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do)
Tell that to the 10 year old with a limited budget that just can?t afford to pay a monthly fee.
There you go, the troll has been feed.
Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.
Talk about revising history to build a straw man!
I was around during those days to experience this period first hand. I owned an IBM PC, IBM PC-XT and and IBM PC-jr. Apple never had a dominant market share of personal computers, and it was certainly not a Mac vs. Windows market.
IBM was the 800lb. gorilla in the room that drove adoption of Microsoft OS products. Even the clones (Compaq) had to be nearly 100% IBM compatible to survive. For years the question was "Is this IBM compatible?"
Android doesn't have a modern "IBM" relentlessly driving adoption of their OS. To compare the early days of the PC era with the early days of the Modern Tablet era is simply a fallacy.