Android to be on 49% of smartphones by 2012, leaving Apple's iOS with 19%, Gartner predicts



  • Reply 61 of 86
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton View Post

    Because OS marketshare determines whether you are cool or lame. If enough people buy the same phone OS as you, then you're cool and your shit doesn't stink. If everyone else is buying phones with the other phone OS, then you are lame and you a unworthy of having an opinion. (At least that's how trolls think)

    I don't personally care. I bought the iPhone (original model) the day it came out. No lines because AT&T didn't offer subsidized pricing. No app store. No 3G. No jail breaks. 8GB max. Just pure Apple iPhone with a ZERO installed base. Why (if I'm not Apple) would I care what the marketshare will be in 2012?

    Defeatist :-)
  • Reply 62 of 86
    applezillaapplezilla Posts: 941member
    People like mediocrity. That's the only chance that Pawlenty or Romney have in 2012.
  • Reply 63 of 86
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Originally Posted by djmikeo View Post

    So if Gartner is correct, and Apple sells 118 million iPhones in 2012, at an average price of $625 (from AI Jan,18th 2011) then it means that poor lil Apple will have $73.75BILLION in iPhone sales. This doesn't include iPad sales. Poor doomed APPLE.

    My bet is Apple will sell 300 M phones at an ASP of $$400 - for a gross of $120B. You are right that Gartner is not assuming any price drops, but they are as useful as a tits on a bull.
  • Reply 64 of 86
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 2,351member
    My friend got four free HTC Touch smartphones from TMobile. How woudl HTC make money? HTC said average selling price of its phones is only $300. HTC can do that because the cost at Taiwan is substantially less than US. But could other US manufacturers like Motorola, Dell survive in 2012? Does Gartner take this into account?
  • Reply 65 of 86
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

    The fight is on alright, i wouldnt put much credence in these reports though, they are apparantly based on buzz-words and extrapolation.

    Here's a link to Gartner ( well about Gartner) in 2009 predicting 2012.

    Symbian is at 37.5%. Android a mere 18%. Windows mobile ( not WP7) is hanging in there at 9% just 4% behind iOS, Maemo is banging around at 4.5% - pretty good considering it is not now anywhere - RIM is at 13%, and Apple a mere 13.6%.

    Awesome predictions which are no better - and probably far worse - that a 12th peasant picking the mobile share from the entrails of a dead bird he found on the street, or a 2 year old picking the 2012 market share from the patterns of his poop as he played with it. If these guys could be sued they would be out of business.

    Meanwhile windows mobile is 0%, Symbian is dead, Maemo was never anything other than dead, and RIM is dropping year on year although it probably wont go to zero.


    Thanks for that link, was truly entertaining. I have to note though that the prediction was surprisingly good -- not in terms of the actual numbers, but in terms of the trends. Did anybody here expect 18% for Android two years ago? I think not. Well, 18% is a lot closer to whatever they have now, so Gartner picked the trend correctly, but were being slightly conservative. You mention a misprediction for Windows mobile and not WP7 -- come on, this is semantics, who but MS could now they'd change the name of the OS? A third one, RIM -- again the prediction that they will lose significant market share was correct. The same is true for Symbian losing share... And lastly, the iPhone is stronger than predicted, again likely due to the conservative nature of the whole forecast.

    Some people get fixated on the actual numbers, some on the trends -- it's fully dependent on one's personality what you'd consider more important. Clearly we cannot take the numbers as they are listed, but I think that even in the current prediction the trends are reasonable.
  • Reply 66 of 86
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    I?m sure Apple wants more handset marketshare (and to a lesser degree mobile OS marketshare) but only if it comes with more total profit. That?s just good business

    It seems like these two things would go hand-in-hand but they don?t as we?ve seen over-and-over by their competition.

    Apple takes over 50% of the handset profits and 40% of the PC profits, both of which likely to be increasing, especially with the new MBAs being popular. I think these two arms of their business will have the most in common with the iPod and iPad arms not only taking nearly all the profit but also maintaining a natural monopoly.
    I?m not seeing where this imminent failure will happen so if someone could help me understand how and why I?d be much appreciated.
  • Reply 67 of 86
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,286member
    I don't recall anyone predicting failure. I just saw an article referencing a prediction on market share. Not the same thing at all. Apple's in no danger failing in the foreseeable future. That would be a silly prediction.
  • Reply 68 of 86
    Honestly, I don't understand what most people here are complaining about. I, too, think that it's practically impossible to make an accurate prediction that far into the future in this fast growing environment. BUT, if it turns out to be right, it's great news! For Apple shareholders, that is. If Apple manages to sell 190m iPhones in 2015, that roughly translates into 120B of revenue, assuming they don't introduce a nano version of the iPhone, in which case the market share would obviously be higher. If the iPhone continues to account for 40% of Apple's revenue, which I think is conservative, given that the tablet market is growing much faster at the moment (not to mention any new products/services coming down the pipe), we have 300B in annual revenue. That's $65 EPS, even if we assume that the margins come down a bit. At a conservative PE of 16, we have a trillion dollar company at over $1000 PPS! That's all in less than 5 years from now.
  • Reply 69 of 86
    welshdogwelshdog Posts: 1,899member
    Originally Posted by Stourque View Post

    And still the #1 selling phone. Android is spread out over about 85 different models.

  • Reply 70 of 86
    Originally Posted by fecklesstechguy View Post

    Doesn't Gartner have one of the worst track records (outside of Thurrott, Dvorak and Enderle) for predicting market behavior?

    And they automagically crossed out Symbian marketshare and scribbled in WP7 in its place, as if that was a foregone conclusion. I am obvious in the wrong business - I could have my dog sniff out trends better than these folks do. I think there should be an analysts' "batting average" site, which would show the overall performance statistics for some of these groups/people compared to the rest of the field...

    Actualy the worst record goes to DED then Gruber then Dvorak.
  • Reply 71 of 86
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Again the analysts don't get it w.r.t. "emerging markets". The problem is not that the iPhone4 is "too expensive" in many of these countries, it's simply that you can't get enough of it. China, India, South East Asia, many other countries, you can't get solid, reliable flows of enough stock. China had it on their Apple Online Store but has been showing as "not available" for months.

    These analysts are still spinning the line that somehow sales are not as high because of demand. 100% wrong. Apple simply cannot make enough iPhone4 and iPad2.

    In smartphones Apple will cede market share because it cannot compete with the rest of the world churning out any piece of crap Android phone, in terms of the number of phones Apple can make.

    In tablets Apple has at least another year of dominance because competitors can't even figure out how to copy it properly.
  • Reply 72 of 86
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post

    So just to make sure I understand. About three months ago Apple said they hadn't yet balanced supply and demand (not the same as a shortage BTW). Geez, why didn't you say it was old news.

    Apparently that problem must have been dealt with. Drop by or call your local Verizon store and ask for a couple of iPhones.

    Guys this poster is probably a reincarnation of someone banned many times before. Don't waste your time.

    A typical pattern of fake civility while constantly trying to undermine what every poster says, and frequenting only the Android threads.
  • Reply 73 of 86
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 2,677member
    This will be true only if the cell phone OEMs are as dumb as the PC OEMs that allowed Microsft to drive all their profits into the ground by standardizing on one OS and only having price to compete on.

    Personally I think we'll begin to see OEMs move away from Android in a year or two. Gartner only analyzes trends, they can't see or factor in unknowns in the market. It's safe to say that in two to three years something else will come along ad disrupt the volatile cell phone market. The Windows market was a completely different beast as it was corporate IT that standardized the market and corporations are very slow to changes.

    It's also not important to dwell on a single device type when there are others that support the platform. Apple will also have the iPod touch and iPad numbers to help push the platform. Android will fail as a tablet OS due to the fact that people won't "blindly" purchase a tablet computer as they do cell phones.
  • Reply 74 of 86
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,916member
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

    Apple simply cannot make enough iPhone4...

    In smartphones Apple will cede market share... in terms of the number of phones Apple can make.

    Totally agreed... Apple can't make 'em fast enough. I bet other companies would love to have bad news like that too.

    Last quarter... Apple sold 16.2 million iPhones. That works out to about 180,000 iPhones every day.

    That's insane!
  • Reply 75 of 86
    povilaspovilas Posts: 473member
    And how this is news exactly? Apple is one and android makers are many with tens of different models, crippled to different levels and with different price ranges.

    This "predictions" is like predicting that sky will be blue in the summer.
  • Reply 76 of 86
    granmastakgranmastak Posts: 298member
    They just get some kids fresh out of MBA to come up with articles like these. They are no different than many of us who post on this forum.

    I stopped paying attention to them and Forrester years ago. I can get more accurate predictions on discussion boards FFS.
  • Reply 77 of 86
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member
    This is so wrong. The last thing the smartphone manufacturers want is another windows situation where their hardware is dominated by one operating system. Look at what they are doing, none of them trust Google Android that's why they are all bringing out smartphones with 2 or 3 different operating systems. In a few years I see it more evenly distributed between between the various operating systems. iOS, PalmOS, RIM, & Windows are not going to sit back and let Android dominate the market.
  • Reply 78 of 86
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,286member
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

    Guys this poster is probably a reincarnation of someone banned many times before. Don't waste your time.

    A typical pattern of fake civility while constantly trying to undermine what every poster says, and frequenting only the Android threads.

    Oh, don't forget the political threads too.

    Sorry, I don't think I've ever been reincarnated. No way to prove that of course. And the civility isn't fake, tho perhaps becoming a rare trait for members at any blog site to have. Anonymity allows a lot of false bravado. I'm very easy to find. Same user name everywhere I go. Except on twitter where my moniker was already taken. Had to go with Gatorguy2 there.

    If you have read my other posts you'll find I do like to challenge un-supported statements and misinformation. I don't particularly care if they're made about Android or Apple, Tomtom or Garmin, O'bama or Bush. Incorrect proclamations repeated hundreds of times still don't make them true or accurate. And when those misstatements of fact are made by me I'll make every attempt to own 'em. Just like most people, it make take a nudge or two to admit I was wrong, so let me know when you come across them. Twice if you need to. I'll man up.

    So knowing that other members such as yourself have an eye open for factual errors in any posts I make certainly helps me avoid being sloppy in my statements. I appreciate your attention NVidia.
  • Reply 79 of 86
    xsuxsu Posts: 401member
    Originally Posted by zaren View Post

    Interesting report here about smartphone market share:

    If you look at that graph, Gartner might be on to something. For all the push Apple's gotten, they haven't increased market share in the last year or so. I know that for as big an Apple fanboy as I am, I'm toting an Android phone..

    iPhone market share didn't change much because the whole smartphone market has increase at roughly the same rate as iPhone's production capacity has been able to increase. Apple has been selling every iPhone they can make, so their market share is only constrained by the production capacity.
  • Reply 80 of 86
    nairbnairb Posts: 253member
    I think these estimates are going to prove to be pretty acurate.

    With more low end offerings from android, many new people will enter the smartphone market with an android. But once they get the tast of a smartphone, they will be wanting to upgrade when their contract expires.

    WHat they upgrade to is another story. I suspect as many will upgrade to an iPhone as to a high end Android phone.
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