Gartner's iPhone, Android predictions radically revised in a year and a half

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  • Reply 81 of 208
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by srathi View Post


    I've removed your quote long back!



    As long as Apple supports 3GS and is sold for free, you really have no argument here. Oh well! you have restored to ad hominem! Typical iFan!



    The fact that you're an astroturfer was not an ad hominem, just an observation. Even a simple insult, of the form: "Your argument is wrong, and oh yes, you're a jerk" is not an ad hominem. The ad hominem fallacy is of the form: "You're a jerk, therefore your argument is wrong."



    The iPhone 3GS is still being sold, and it's a two-year-old design. They're having to give away current Android phones, and there are NO two-year-old Android phones on the market, even for free, so I don't know what you think your argument is.
  • Reply 82 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by srathi View Post


    I've removed your quote long back!



    As long as Apple supports 3GS and is sold for free, you really have no argument here. Oh well! you have restored to ad hominem! Typical iFan!



    3GS here is, at least, $399.

    Point me to where to get free 3GS without pricey contract.
  • Reply 83 of 208
    srathisrathi Posts: 29member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    3GS here is, at least, $399.

    Point me to where to get free 3GS without pricey contract.



    Point me to where to get a free Android phone without a contract.
  • Reply 84 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    IPad "Redefining Computing."



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...computing.html



    Apparently their analysis was worth listen to there.



    And Here:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...r_company.html



    And Here:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...s_in_2014.html



    And Here:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...7_million.html

    --Wait, this one actually calls Gartner into doubt... So why does AI keep posting their predictions like they mean anything?



    And- Well, you get the picture.



    Now, I agree that the analyst is trash. All tech analysts are because they haven't been right on anything tech related in years because they're still using the old model. But it's kind of ironic that AI is so quick to post Gartner's numbers and all their predictions that put Apple in a positive light, but now that those flawed analysts are choosing a new rising star (be it microsoft or Android or someone else) now AI is finally calling them out as shams.



    Good data is good data, and bad data is bad data, no matter how much you like/dislike what it says.



    Gartner is trash. I know this, you know this (and you've said as much here). So I expect this will be the LAST post on here with a prediction by Gartner where AI is putting at least a tagline linking to this article, no matter if the new prediction is pro-Apple or not.
  • Reply 85 of 208
    bageljoeybageljoey Posts: 1,747member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac-sochist View Post


    Still can't answer the question as to how many two-year-old Android phones are selling now, like the iPhone 3GS indubitably is. Same broken-record posts?tell me, how many rupees per post do outsourced astroturfers get?



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by srathi View Post


    IAs long as Apple supports 3GS and is sold for free, you really have no argument here. Oh well! you have restored to ad hominem! Typical iFan!



    You are missing his point, srathi. I suppose it is on purpose, but I will restate it for him in hopes of ending this:

    Apple's aged 3GS is still valued by customers such that they are willing to sign up for a pricy long term contracts to get one (or pay hundreds to get one contract free). He wants to know what Android phones of a similar age command the same commercial interest?



    The answer is, of course, none.
  • Reply 86 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by srathi View Post


    Point me to where to get a free Android phone without a contract.



    I can point you to the fact that here we don't have a contract. Most of Android phones are selling, lets be generous here, less than half of even 3GS. You could even find some at as low as $100.00. If you think Android phones are on the same playing field as iPhone price-wise then you're deluding yourself.

    I took a picture of Android phone price once for a laugh. Let me see if I could find it.

    Of course there's some hardcore group of people that will buy an expensive Android phone but they are a very small minority.
  • Reply 87 of 208
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    You are missing his point, srathi. I suppose it is on purpose, but I will restate it for him in hopes of ending this:

    Apple's aged 3GS is still valued by customers such that they are willing to sign up for a pricy long term contracts to get one (or pay hundreds to get one contract free). He wants to know what Android phones of a similar age command the same commercial interest?



    The answer is, of course, none.



    Thank you, Bageljoey?lucid indeed.
  • Reply 88 of 208
    srathisrathi Posts: 29member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    You are missing his point, srathi. I suppose it is on purpose, but I will restate it for him in hopes of ending this:

    Apple's aged 3GS is still valued by customers such that they are willing to sign up for a pricy long term contracts to get one (or pay hundreds to get one contract free). He wants to know what Android phones of a similar age command the same commercial interest?



    The answer is, of course, none.



    I'm not missing his point. People are still buying 3GS because it is available for free compared to $200 for iPhone 4. You are just interpreting it your way.
  • Reply 89 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post


    You are missing his point, srathi. I suppose it is on purpose, but I will restate it for him in hopes of ending this:

    Apple's aged 3GS is still valued by customers such that they are willing to sign up for a pricy long term contracts to get one (or pay hundreds to get one contract free). He wants to know what Android phones of a similar age command the same commercial interest?



    The answer is, of course, none.



    Android companies follow a traditional phone cycle, which is that a cellphone will only last 9-12 months before it's replaced. You don't see a company keeping around a 2 year old phone because they have 5 current model phones, with the entry level model being more powerful than anything released last year, let alone 2 years ago. There's no point. It's an apple's to oranges comparison.



    If Apple offered customers a cheaper way to get iOS than a 3GS, the 3GS wouldn't be around either. It still exists because it's the only way to get an iOS device that's not a top of the line model. Again, apple's to oranges. It's two totally different ways of doing business.



    Then you look at the technology involved. 2 years ago, the "Best" android phone was something like the HTC Hero, which had a 400ish MHz processor, a low res screen, and entry level ram/hardly any app space. Last year at this time, the phone to beat would be the upcoming Evo, and it was competing with the Nexus/Droid Incredible. Which had a GHz processor.



    By the time the original droid is 2 years old, the average Android device will have 2+ cores clocked at a gig, capable of HD output/recording, significantly faster Data networks ("4G" om every variation), Super high res screens, and who knows what OS.



    No, specs arn't everything, but it's clear to see that, for better or worse, the hardware on android devices has evolved in such a way that having a 2 year old phone wouldn't make sense, especially since you can make that same phone cheaper and rebrand it as entry level if you want.
  • Reply 90 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    I can point you to the fact that here we don't have a contract. Most of Android phones are selling, lets be generous here, less than half of even 3GS. You could even find some at as low as $100.00. If you think Android phones are on the same playing field as iPhone price-wise then you're deluding yourself.

    I took a picture of Android phone price once for a laugh. Let me see if I could find it.

    Of course there's some hardcore group of people that will buy an expensive Android phone but they are a very small minority.



    They're actually the majority. Super cheap android devices are still rather new. They didn't start popping up until last fall, and with how cheap high end devices are in the US on contract, most people go with that if for nothing else than the bragging rights of having the latest and greatest. Android is still Strongest in the US/Europe, where higher end phones hold sway.



    You're more likely to see a Desire or a Optimus2x than you are a Zio.
  • Reply 91 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Menno View Post


    They're actually the majority. Super cheap android devices are still rather new. They didn't start popping up until last fall,



    The first time I saw it is April last year. I know because it's an annual event. They're all are at half-price at 3GS.



    Oh and how do you know higher end Android phone hold sway? Do you have any hard data to back this up? Units sold of each Android phones in Europe?
  • Reply 92 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    The first time I saw it is April last year. I know because it's an annual event. They're all are at half-price at 3GS.



    What was the phone?



    Because according to CNN, the first $100 phone didn't pop up until this past december: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/...android-phone/



    Though it appears there was a Rebranded version of it launched in Africa earlier that year (September) But I can only find blog posts on it. From the looks of it though, it was the same exact phone.
  • Reply 93 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Menno View Post


    What was the phone?



    Because according to CNN, the first $100 phone didn't pop up until this past december: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/12/...android-phone/



    I just can't bother to remember it frankly. And no I don't talk about $100 phones I'm talking about half-price-of-3GS phone, $200 price range.
  • Reply 94 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    I just can't bother to remember it frankly. And no I don't talk about $100 phones I'm talking about half-price-of-3GS phone, $200 price range.



    Even at $200, you couldn't find many phones last spring that fell near that price unless you were looking at very cheap Chinese models that may or may not have the full android market. (several chinese companies have a fork of Android that's popular, but they don't have Android Market access)



    But even so, most of the phones right now running android are middle quality (300-400+) or higher. I'd argue that most in the US are a lot higher. You're more prone to see an Evo/Droidx/Droid than you are a Devour/Zio/Comet. And remember, even a "bargin" bin phone like the LG Optimus T/V/S etc is a more powerful phone than the Droid, which was the most powerful android device to come out a little under 2 years ago. Again, tech has evolved very quickly.
  • Reply 95 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Menno View Post


    Even at $200, you couldn't find many phones last spring that fell near that price unless you were looking at very cheap Chinese models that may or may not have the full android market. (several chinese companies have a fork of Android that's popular, but they don't have Android Market access)




    They were all advertised to be Android phones. Big fat green robot on all the posters. Oh and Google TM also.

    Give me hard data please. Sale number between high-end Android phones compare to middle-end, for example. I never see anyone provide such a data. All we have is the whole unit sales.
  • Reply 96 of 208
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    They were all advertised to be Android phones. Big fat green robot on all the posters. Oh and Google TM also.

    Give me hard data please. Sale number between high-end Android phones compare to middle-end, for example. I never see anyone provide such a data. All we have is the whole unit sales.



    Notice now when the fragmentation of the Android market serves his argument, it exists, but when he wants to add up all these devices into a dominant, world-beating "Android Market", then they're all the same.
  • Reply 97 of 208
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac-sochist View Post


    Notice now when the fragmentation of the Android market serves his argument, it exists, but when he wants to add up all these devices into a dominant, world-beating "Android Market", then they're all the same.



    Indeed.
  • Reply 98 of 208
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,788member
    I doubt anyone pays Gartner for their "research." Cheaper and more accurate to call Miss Cleo the psychic.

    ("Call me now for your free reedin!")



    So, there are only two ways for Gartner to make money:



    1. Microsoft pays Gartner to cheerlead for them. Makes Gartner look like a bunch of shills, but

    money is money. Microsoft makes piles of cash milking their legacy WIndows + Office customers,

    and they aren't shy about dumping truckloads of benjamins on public relations disasters like WP7.



    2. Other tech companies pay Gartner to leave them the f_ck alone. As in "We'll pay you to not

    write about us. A glowing report from you bozos is the kiss of death."



    Bad feng shui all around.
  • Reply 99 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac-sochist View Post


    Notice now when the fragmentation of the Android market serves his argument, it exists, but when he wants to add up all these devices into a dominant, world-beating "Android Market", then they're all the same.



    Actually, when you're talking world marketshare, devices without android market are not counted as "android" by most companies, and certainly not by google. I've also argued that Fragmentation isn't an issue (when you're talking the traditional sense, as in different versions of Google tracked android) at least nowhere near what you and others are implying. The fact remains that over 90% of the apps will work on every android device out there, with the main compatibility issues coming from a mere 6% of devices. Android is not, as you say, incompatible because different companies make it. The only time this is the case is if it's a forked version of Android. Then it's incompatible because they've made the code their own.



    But I don't expect you'd get that. To you, everyone who dares to question apple is most likely the same person anyway, right?



    As for hard data on sales numbers, if you (matrix) can't be bothered to remember the name of a phone you saw, Why should I waste my time doing your job for you by using Google?



    Here's something that came up after 10 seconds: (Granted, this is just a survey done by Admob, and it's US companies.



    http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2010/...rules-android/



    HTC Dream=G1

    HTC Magic (mytouch 3g)

    HTC Hero was a mid-high end phone when it came out, even though the hardware was older.

    Eris is a Hero, still cost 400,



    At the time of the survay (last June) 67% of all android devices were in north america. They seemed to have counted the chinese fork as Android, because it accounted for 13% of their survey. Over 80% of Android devices in their results (over 12 million devices) were from HTC or Motorola, and neither company makes a "bargain" full retail phone. Even a POS like the devour is 400 retail.
  • Reply 100 of 208
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    Indeed.



    What you call Fragmentation, and what most people call fragmentation differs greatly.
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