Gartner sees Apple's iPad dominating tablet market through 2015

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Seankill View Post


    The iPad will probably be the only tablet I ever buy.

    My iPhone 4 doesn't charge, it says 6% battery but once I plug it in, the plug shows in thebattery symbol and it doesn't charge.

    Anyone have any ideas?



    I know, I shouldn't be answering this question that doesn't belong in this thread. Press both buttons (top and "home") at the same time and hold for 10 seconds. Then restart. That will likely solve the problem.
  • Reply 22 of 76
    So Gartner are predicting iPad sales of 138 million in 2015.



    At an ASP of $500 this would mean revenue of $69b.



    That's more than the whole of the company managed in 2010 - $65b!
  • Reply 23 of 76
    realisticrealistic Posts: 1,126member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by paxman View Post


    No no - in 2016 iOS will have 13% of the tablet market. MS will have 45% and the rest will go to Android.



    Okay, and iOS will have 95% of the profits.
  • Reply 24 of 76
    jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,483member
    I predict iPad market share of tablets will mirror iPod market share of portable music players.
  • Reply 25 of 76
    gprovidagprovida Posts: 247member
    "... Gartner's tablet market share predictions come just days after the firm issued its projections for smartphone mobile operating system share, also through 2015. It predicted that Google Android would be on 49 percent of smartphones sold by 2012, but also prompted questions about the firm's "radically revised" forecast since 2009.



    In March, Gartner lowered its forecast for PC sales in 2011 and 2012, citing the iPad as a device that will weaken demand for traditional computers. The firm believes that "media tablets" like the iPad are "redefining" the PC's place in consumers' lives. ..."



    Once gain two data points does a projection make [any bets on accuracy history not looking good], but once again, PCs are getting decremented for iPads [and eventually Tablets], but an arbitrary and superficial difference is applied, so iPad is not a PC.



    My personal bet is Gartner would look pretty silly if they counted them now and had to redefine their whole world view on market share among Windows and MacOS [including iOS]. Silly will eventually happen with Gartner looking sillier and sillier as time goes on.



    I can see them suddenly having an epiphany as software vendors catch up e.g., Adobe with Photoshop [ever see that work on a full function NetBook]. If MS does some Office light for an iPad or Windows Tablet then poof they can get common sense.
  • Reply 26 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    Personally I don't think competitor's are going to be very far behind. They took some time to respond to the iPad, which I assume you could chalk up to seeing if there really was a market for tablets. With a few months of demonstrated market there's a lot of players readying entries meant to compete. IMHO, there's no telling where the mobile market is headed. Are cloud services really ready for mass market uptake? Does MS really have a plan? Can Nokia catch up after taking a nap the past 18 months? Will Apple bend and make a play for the entry level market?



    Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.



    There are several reasons why the PC trumped the Mac in the early days. PCs have been less expensive and have offered far more software. Now the tables are turned. Apple has the advantage in terms of price and in terms of software offerings. If the competition is going to try and trump Apple in terms of hard specs, who cares? As the equipment keeps on getting more powerful, it's not going to matter when a consumer has a choice between really fast and even faster. What matters is fast enough to make for a good user experience. The iPad is already that for what it can do right now which is considerably more than the competition because of so much software available for the iPad.



    What is there for the competition to offer to challenge Apple's lead? Put yourself in the shoes of an average consumer who sees no price advantage in buying an iPad competitor and a substantial software deficit, as in having a choices between thousands of titles for the iPad vs. hundreds for the other products (hundreds might be overstating it).



    Besides, if the competition is playing catch-up, what makes you think Apple intends to stand still long enough for them to succeed?
  • Reply 27 of 76
    dishdish Posts: 64member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    I'm predicting that the iPad will sell 247,847,264.7 units in 2050.



    by 2050 computers will have moved into the next stage: ubiquitious/disposable. In the same way that paper was once considered precious, then became used for decoration, then became ubiquitious and disposable. So by then, in theory, iPads could exist and sell in such high numbers...but of course by then we will have augmented reality contact lenses (Apple iVision) which will replace all computers as they exist today.
  • Reply 28 of 76
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    Personally I don't think competitor's are going to be very far behind. They took some time to respond to the iPad, which I assume you could chalk up to seeing if there really was a market for tablets. With a few months of demonstrated market there's a lot of players readying entries meant to compete. IMHO, there's no telling where the mobile market is headed. Are cloud services really ready for mass market uptake? Does MS really have a plan? Can Nokia catch up after taking a nap the past 18 months? Will Apple bend and make a play for the entry level market?



    Who predicted Nokia giving up the lead in market share so quickly? Who here predicted any successful competition from Android in smartphones? Before they went on sale, how many of us predicted 20 million iPads sold already? And how many have already written off Android and WM7 as potential challengers for the iPad before they've even started? Things are way more fluid than most of us can imagine.



    1) I think competitors will be far behind. Apple had a brand new OS/UI with the iPhone in 2007 despite in being a ?highly evolved and saturated market?, yet they managed to become the most profitable handset maker in the world in under 1.5 years. In 2010 they took over half the profits while still only being on a single network in the US, their largest single market.



    2) Apple is being extra aggressive with the iPad. You can see this with the constant mentions and digs at their tablet competitors during the iPad 2 special event. I don?t think Apple is planning on just making the iPad the most profitable tablet following in the steps of the iPhone, I think they are planning to making it another iPad with a natural monopoly.



    3) When it comes to Apple?s competition it?s always soon. Soon! in 2010 it was that soon Tegra 2 was said to dominate anything Apple could possibly create in 2011, Soon the Xoom will dominate. Soon there will be gross of tablets at CES that will destroy the iPad. Now in 2011 the goal posts have been moved once again.



    4) They had decades on the market to get it right. Now they are just following Apple?s lead. What makes us think they have no figured out how to trump Apple at their own game? I don?t see anything but follow-the-leader with Apple taking a much higher percent of the profits than they do with the handset market.



    4) We?ve been using cloud services for years in some regard. What people seem to think is that you?ll store nothing locally and all data and media will be accessed remotely. I just don?t see that at a feasible future. We?ll build our connectivity and services gradually while also increasing our local storage capacity.



    5) As I?ve mentioned I think WP7 is a good mobile OS that breaks away from many of MS? faults. I think Nokia going with MS is one of their best options. Android would just push them into the lowest-denominator commodity market competing with companies that will race them to the bottom. They failed to buy WebOS, but are they really good at coding to make it work? WP7 could still be a race to the bottom but it will have to catch on first, and they get to save much effort in having to build it. It?s really their best option for now. They need a tablet, but they need to concentrate on smartphones right now



    6) A lot of people predicted Nokia?s drop and Android?s rise. It?s a modern, free OS used by dozens of vendors. How could Android not take off? I?m just surprised that it has so little OS market share by unit at this point.



    7) The iPad success seems to the biggest whammy in CE. It?s a product people love but not one people need until they use it, much like the iPod. For this reason and Apple?s aggressive campaign I think we might be looking at another iPod-like monopoly.
  • Reply 29 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by RichL View Post


    I'm predicting that the iPad will sell 247,847,264.7 units in 2050.



    What happend to the remaining 0.3 unit ?
  • Reply 30 of 76
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member
    2015...that's when flash is going to be available on the other tablets, right?



    Wait! That's the year the Hover Board comes out, and those nifty internet-surfing sunglasses that Marty's son wears!
  • Reply 31 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    The Nook's, and specifically the Nook color, have been somewhat successful. That's the only one I can think of.



    I hadn't realized that the Nook was considered a tablet. The numbers make a little more sense if that is the case.
  • Reply 32 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xsu View Post


    And you would be wrong in some cases.



    http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html



    And you can force molecules to bond when they don't naturally want to......you can make light go faster than the speed of light.....you can force most any rule to be violated......so what's your point?
  • Reply 33 of 76
    sol77sol77 Posts: 203member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xsu View Post


    And you would be wrong in some cases.



    http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html







    I think we should assume he meant it with the parenthetical, "under normal temperature and pressure."



    Cool link, though. Point taken.
  • Reply 34 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by frugality View Post


    And I predict water will run downhill!



    That is the most reasonable dig in the commentary



    These aren't even predictions, nor were the last set. They are simply the most mundane results of an excel graph or less. There is no intelligence, analysis, nothing in their figures.



    All this mob is showing is that you wouldn't want to subscribe to their bizarre and no doubt costly toilet paper.



    I predict the Google model for search will be obliterated by 2015, destroying their ad base and revenue stream. Investment into the zero profit Android will have forked into a shotgun effect and have been taken over by a new wave of as yet unknown manufacturers out of China and India who's wares will be rebranded by anyone who can buy 10,000 units minimum.



    Meanwhile Motorola and Samsung will have left the fold with their own OS solutions and Nokia will be the Hardware arm of Microsoft who will no longer license their OS. HP will focus on vertical markets and Web OS. Dell and other Win OEM's will be desperately trying to avoid imploding. By 2018 Sony and Nintendo will have taken the Sega path and be in a buy out war for content makers.



    Adobe in a radical move will cease selling their suites and turn them into packaged hard/soft combo units in a last ditch effort to exert total control on content development, analysts will compare it to the old school quantel paintbox but suprisingly due to the valueless nature of hardware their user base embraces the move as most other computing tasks are no longer done on workstations anyway and the pricing model will allow them to cycle to the fastest gear every two years at the same cost as software only used to be.



    Apple will also introduce subscription computing and pioneer instore JIT micro manufacture after a big time rip off by manufacturing partner Foxconn. the system will recycle old devices instore into base materials used in an advanced rapid prototyping / printer. The old Apple Tax headlines will be recycled by pundits due to Apple's trickle pay method which with pricing brackets starting as low as $1 a day. Apple is successful though and announces $1billion dollars a day within the first year.



    Now there is a freaking prediction.
  • Reply 35 of 76
    wovelwovel Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post


    No, no. Gartners predictions are only wrong when they have Apple losing market share.



    Actually I will argue that their premise that Android represents a single platform is also wrong in this case.. I had no problem with their prediction, only their description of Android as a single platform. It is not.
  • Reply 36 of 76
    wovelwovel Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by barboure View Post


    I hadn't realized that the Nook was considered a tablet. The numbers make a little more sense if that is the case.



    It is an dreaded that can be rooted to run iPhone apps, so I

    guess that makes it a tablet in Android land...
  • Reply 37 of 76
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,811member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post


    I predict iPad market share of tablets will mirror iPod market share of portable music players.



    I agree. The devices are more similar to each other than the iPad is to smartpones. Today people find mobile phones as necessities. As the price of smartphones drop more people will just choose a smartphone over the old feature phone they were using.



    Like the iPod, the iPad doesn't offer anything other than convenience over traditional devices that accomplish the same tasks.
  • Reply 38 of 76
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by xsu View Post


    And you would be wrong in some cases.



    http://www.livescience.com/688-scien...un-uphill.html



    Today I learned something new. What an interesting read. Science is awesome.
  • Reply 39 of 76
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,570member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Carmissimo View Post


    There are several reasons why the PC trumped the Mac in the early days. PCs have been less expensive and have offered far more software. ...



    The primary reason PCs gained the market share they did is because they were IBM (and compatible) PCs. IBM's entrenched position in business at that time (which is where most of the purchasing took place then) immediately gave them an advantage in the market. Microsoft rode those coattails and that advantage carried through the Windows era.



    None of those dynamics are at play in the tablet market (or the smartphone market), except perhaps that Apple is the perceived leader in making these types of devices, no longer Microsoft, and that Android simply isn't perceived as suitable for enterprise deployment. But, the consumer market is also much more of a factor these days than it was in the early days of the PC, so any analogies made have to also account for that.



    The bottom line is that simple analogies with Apple vs. IBM/Microsoft, or Mac vs. PC/DOS/Windows, simply are not valid for any sort of meaningful analysis.
  • Reply 40 of 76
    mennomenno Posts: 854member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wovel View Post


    Actually I will argue that their premise that Android represents a single platform is also wrong in this case.. I had no problem with their prediction, only their description of Android as a single platform. It is not.



    But the issue isn't what you believe. What he was commenting on is the fact that Apple Insider has questions Gartner's predictions (not the numbers as much as methodology and reliability) at least twice. The most recent of which was just TWO days ago:

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...nd_a_half.html



    If AI doesn't Trust Gartner's research then WHY are they posting this crap as news? The ONLY thing different is that this report shows Apple in first place, which the other's haven't.



    In fact, whenever Any analyst puts another OS in the lead, AI calls them out as faulty (if they report them at all) but whenever someone posts numbers with Apple in a positive light, no matter HOW FAULTY the survey, it's suddenly a trusted source (Like that "report" about the lines for Verizon iPhones that only looked at FIVE apple stores and no Verizon locations)



    You don't judge if an analyst (or a press release by them) is worth listening to based on if it lines up with your expectations. You judge it on the data.



    By posting this article TWO DAYS after they just called the SAME firm out for shoddy predictions, AI's showing that they don't care how accurate the "News" is, as long as it paints Apple in a positive light.



    Heck, they didn't even link back to their previous article warning their readers not to accept this report at face value. but you can bet that as SOON as Gartner releases another report that paints another OS in a positive light, AI will be sure to link to:



    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...7_million.html



    That's not "Apple News and Analysis" That's "Apple PR"
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