Suppliers believe Apple could ship 45 million iPads in 2011

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  • Reply 21 of 41
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!



    Me Too!
  • Reply 22 of 41
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,221member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    I'm on record with a SWAG estimate of 60 million iPads (all models) sold in CY 2011 -- I'll stick with that!



    If they could make them maybe, but I dont think they can even make 60 millions in a year. Thats 5 millions per month and since they are probably at 3m ATM, that would mean like 8 to 10 millions in the last months of the year... simply impossible.



    But I do think that if they had the inventory, they could sell that many.
  • Reply 23 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by matrix07 View Post


    Way optimistic. If it sold 45m. the tablet war might be over before it even begin. At that number the mind share Apple got would be so huge the public and developer have no choice but stick with iPad for a few years at least.



    It may very well be over...



    Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.



    Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.



    Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.



    I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.



    But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.
  • Reply 24 of 41
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post


    It may very well be over...



    Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.



    Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.



    Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.



    I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.



    But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.



    Apple has won the price battle.



    Apple has won the developer/app catalog battle.



    Apple has won the ease-of-use battle.



    Apple has won the Flash v no Flash battle.
  • Reply 25 of 41
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,827member
    I just visited a local Apple store to check on availability and they are still selling out every single day. Usually early in the morning. While that isn't inconsistent with the iPad 2 launch, what is different is that they get stock just about everyday!



    So let's say they are averaging 50 sales a day at every store. That would be almost a 100,000 a month based on 65 stores in the US. (I don't know the current number of US stores). I would suspect that the flagship stores are selling a lot more per day and then you have online and international sales. The problem is nobody really knows how constrained supplies really are, initial sales of iPad 2 will look good but I'm not convinced right now that they can produce enough to sustain a high sales rate.



    Of course my local store is tiny and selling out of 20-50 devices a day might not reflect what is happening with Apples sales network as a whole. I just think they are production constrained right now so predictions of sales numbers is very difficult especially going into the next quarter. If the supply chain can't get past 2 million a month Apple will never see 45 million in sales. Obviously the supply chain is excited about the prospects but Apple needs to get a lot more iPads into it's store soon or the year will be over. So if their guidance is extremely low I suspect that is a reflection of supply chain problems and not demand.
  • Reply 26 of 41
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,827member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


    If they could make them maybe, but I dont think they can even make 60 millions in a year. Thats 5 millions per month and since they are probably at 3m ATM, that would mean like 8 to 10 millions in the last months of the year... simply impossible.



    Nothing is impossible but I think Apple is a long way from having that capability.

    Quote:

    But I do think that if they had the inventory, they could sell that many.



    At the moment demand is certainly there. How long that will last is another question. Right now I think it could last a long time as iPad 2 is a vast improvement over the original.



    The problem I have is that I really don't believe they have the inventory right now. It just seems like they are a long way from having 3 million a month flowing into the market. Of course I do hope I'm wrong.
  • Reply 27 of 41
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    So let's say they are averaging 50 sales a day at every store. That would be almost a 100,000 a month based on 65 stores in the US. (I don't know the current number of US stores).



    Wikipedia states 236 retail locations in the US. That’s about 350k a month based on 50 units per day per store.



    That doesn’t international sales or all their affiliates. I think they sold between 6.5 and 8.5 million this past quarter. That’s 2.17 to 2.83 million units per month.



    Quote:

    I don't think they are even close to 3 million a month yet.



    They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.
  • Reply 28 of 41
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,580member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.



    From what I understand, Foxcon wasn't the limiting factor, it was the displays. Given previous ramp rates, it makes sense that the displays should be around 3MM per month starting in January, and likely a little higher by the end of the month. Only real concern I have is what impact Japan has on the continuing increase in rates. We hear not much on quantities-- just margins, but... it sounds optimistic.
  • Reply 29 of 41
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,827member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by christopher126 View Post


    It may very well be over...



    Apple has won the 'specs' battle with the iPad.



    You can't really say this because there is no viable competition.

    Quote:

    Apple has won the "fragmented vs. integrated" battle.



    Well if you mean Android then yes. At least from the developers point of view. Consumer sales are another thing but I suspect that many that go the Android route don't know what they are buying anyways.



    Apple still has a tiny part of the cell phone market and needs more than one device there. Likewise much of the potential tablet market is underserved by the iPad.

    Quote:

    Apple has won the "enterprise" battle where IT managers were in the past weary of Apple iPhones and favored RIM. There doesn't seem to be anywhere near the reluctance on the part of IT managers to embrace the iPad compared to the iPhone.



    I think this is the most shocking thing out there. I'm seeing Apple devices in places I never thought I would. It isn't just iPhones either, the corporate world seems to have gone gaga over iPad. Frankly I can understand the iPone as it is mature enough to offer real value. IPad I'm not to sure about, the software base is just a little thin.

    Quote:

    I'm sure there are a few more areas Apple has won.



    Speed to market is one. Let's face it they have a mass production dual core Cortex A9 product ready to put into cutovers hands. While Apple is downplaying specs (stupidly I might add) it is one the market right now with a bleeding edge hardware product. That hardware has a lot to do with making iPad 2 feel like a massive improvement over iPad1.

    Quote:

    But, most importantly, other tablet makers no longer can rely on IT managers to accept subpar products and subpar software just because it's made by RIM, HP or Dell. This in of itself will lead to more iPhone sales, MBA sales and Mac sales.



    What other tablet makers? I've yet to see a viable alternative to iPad.



    You are right about IT managers though. I haven't seen so much interest in Apple hardware in the corporate world in years. I attribute that mostly to the lack of competition that even has a clue.
  • Reply 30 of 41
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 742member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tribalogical View Post


    I'm not so sure it's too optimistic. I think Apple will sell as many as they can build. There's no question the demand is there, and I see no reason for that not to continue and grow.



    As always for me, the bigger question is how many can they produce? That's where the limit will be first and foremost, not the market demand.



    iPad 1 finally got to the point where they were meeting demand with inventory flow. It took months. We see the same with iPad 2, but I think they're ramping it faster. I recall hearing they would be at roughly 3 million / mo. production capacity soon? And the fourth quarter demands even more, so presumably they'll be at 5 million plus by the last three months of the year. My math puts that pretty close to the 40 million mark, limited only by production capacity...



    I think you've nailed the issue. It's all about production. But last I heard, they were going to be up to 5 million/month soon. I believe they were at 3 million in December for the iPad 1 and adding 2 million/month more for the iPad 2. Adding another 2 million/month capacity for the iPad 2 and then switching the existing capacity from the iPad 1 to the iPad 2 would give a total capacity of 5 million.



    Assume they get there by June. That would indicate an average in the first half of about 4 million/month or 24 million. But they must have gotten the message that they need to be adding a lot more production capacity. No doubt they're working on that even as we speak. If they can get to 8 million/month by the end of the year, that would indicate an average for the second half of 6.5 million/month or 39 million. Total for the year: 63 million. Total installed base by the end of the year: on the order of 75 million.
  • Reply 31 of 41
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 12,827member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Wikipedia states 236 retail locations in the US. That?s about 350k a month based on 50 units per day per store.



    Wow, far more stores than I thought.

    Quote:

    That doesn?t international sales or all their affiliates. I think they sold between 6.5 and 8.5 million this past quarter. That?s 2.17 to 2.83 million units per month.



    Yes but that is 2/3rds last years model. I'm not convinced that iPad 2 production has ramped enough to push out those numbers.

    Quote:

    They did 7.3 million in the previous quarter and they now have a new Foxconn factory that could be pushing out iPads.



    Well all I have to say is that they need to continue to ramp rather hard to get to 45 million a year. Even 3 million a month isn't enough to feed those numbers.



    That being said it looks like they will sell everything they make.
  • Reply 32 of 41
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    You can't really say this because there is no viable competition.



    I contend there is no viable competition because Apple has disseminated them, most before they could even get past the prototype stage.
    Exhibit A: CES 2010. Filled with tablets. Speculation of an impending Apple tablet could be heard at every booth. Very few of these companies had price points due to the Apple tablet uncertainty and most never came to be.



    Exhibit B: CES 2011. Filled with tablets. Speculation of an impending iPad 2 could be heard at every booth. Most promising Android 3.0 with Tegra 2 with claims of Spring/Summer releases and claims it will kill the iPad.



    Exhibit C: Motorola Xoom. Tegra 2. Honeycomb 3.0. Promises of power yet barely faster that year old iPad in many tests and bested by iPad 2 in general performance. Missing access to certain HW despite being installed (I:e.: SD card and USB) and a requirement to ship back to factory at some future point to get cellular radio.
    It?s kind of like Head & Shoulder?s commercial. They don?t have it because they keep preventing it.
  • Reply 33 of 41
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,749member
    Agree with nearly everything you said except who's saying their tablet is going to kill the iPad? I don't recall any manufacturer making that kind of claim. Certainly the epitome of silly if they did. I think most of the "kill the iPad" comments actually come from the Apple camp, used as a rallying cry.
  • Reply 34 of 41
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    Agree with nearly everything you said except who's saying their tablet is going to kill the iPad? I don't recall any manufacturer making that kind of claim. Certainly the epitome of silly if they did. I think most of the "kill the iPad" comments actually come from the Apple camp, used as a rallying cry.



    They don?t come from Apple camp, they come from sensationalist pundits and bloggers. It?s hyperbole but its common enough to not be taken literally, especially in my post. You can search for ?iPad killer? with any number of tablets and you?ll find of evidence to support that usage.



    PS: Have your device be one that has to be killed is a sure sign you have a controlling mindshare.
  • Reply 35 of 41
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,749member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    PS: Have your device be one that has to be killed is a sure sign you have a controlling mindshare.



    No argument with that at all. Every move Apple makes now reverberates in every tech company's engineering and sales meetings. Apple is definitely willing to paste a target on it's back. Even taunts the others to hit it.
  • Reply 36 of 41
    That would be incredible if Apple could sell over 40 million iPad2s this year! They'll have to bump up their 7.3 million mark for the previous quarter. Hopefully, the new Foxconn factory will help with production. The market is there if they can get enough on the shelves.



    Speaking of iPad2, if anyone is interested, I saw that Sporcle is giving away a free iPad2 for whoever plays their 500 millionth game. Looks like all you have to do is register and play some of the online trivia games. A good way for someone to win an iPad2 if they don?t have one, since you get to play trivia games and possibly come away with an iPad2. I was just on there today and saw that they are nearing the 500 million mark.
  • Reply 37 of 41
    nuttannuttan Posts: 21member
    And you do not wonder when Apple will sell it's 500 millionth iOS device? 2015! There will be that many Apple devices in the field.

    Then it expodentalizes to 1 billion by 2016..he.he..2 billion by 2017. And away we go......... :-)
  • Reply 38 of 41
    I really dread the day when Apple announce quarterly figures that are a whisker short of analyst expectations.



    How long can this roll last?
  • Reply 39 of 41
    Today (Saturday 4/16/2011) I was listening to the Kim Komando radio show. During the call in period at least three people were asking about iPads and one was asking about iPad apps. This is the largest Saturday radio show in the USA with over 500 radio stations broadcasting it.



    The host raves about her iPad and its uses. The callers that already have them call and comment about how great they are. This is huge publicity. The buzz is there. When everyone is exposed to one the world of PC computing will be changed forever.



    How often does the average person upgrade their PC? For me it was six years from the time I got my first computer until I got my second one. That was because it was malfunctioning.



    People wanting to replace their PCs (Macs included) will be taking a look at the iPad as a choice. My thinking is that people won't replace their older desktop and laptop computers. They will keep the older ones with disc drives and just add an iPad. That way they can still use disc drives if they need them.
  • Reply 40 of 41
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    For iPad 2 Apple is probably producing between 2 and 3 million a month. So for calendar Q1 we are probably going to see 2 to 3 million sold in March alone. I don't think they've hit the 3 million per month mark yet.



    But given that for the first half of the year many countries are still being supplied with iPad 1 (and are desperately waiting for iPad 2), I think the TOTAL iPads sold in calendar 2011 should be past 36 million as Apple ramps past 3 million a month of iPad 2 towards the end of 2011. 40 million is possible but 50 million is too much to produce in 2011 especially with the Japan factor.



    Some days I cannot imagine that here we have a PC (yes the iPad is a PC) that has been consistently outselling the Mac for about year now.



    The new gold rush is iPad apps development but there is not enough knowledge transfer taking place in the world with everyone previously so entrenched in iPhone and Android development... There is even not enough knowledge transfer with iPhone and Android development itself hence Google I/O and WWDC 2011 selling out insanely fast.
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