Notes of interest from Apple's Q2 2011 conference call

13

Comments

  • Reply 41 of 67
    newbeenewbee Posts: 2,055member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    According to someone a few posts up Apple indicated they didn't expect the demand, thus they didn't have enough product. Disruptions in the supply chain weren't an issue.



    That's still an odd comment IMO. . .



    It's only odd if you fail to understand it .... which you obviously do.
  • Reply 42 of 67
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post


    When they say China sales of $5 billion is 10% of Apple, I don't quite get it. Their total sales is $24.67 billion for the quarter.



    2 Quarters who combined totals are roughly $50 Billion in revenues, hence $5 Billion in this year is 10% of their total revenues.
  • Reply 43 of 67
    macnycmacnyc Posts: 342member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    That would be an odd statement. So did he go on to explain missing the consensus estimates on iPad sales if supply wasn't an issue?



    Exactly!



    As an Apple shareholder, I'm really getting tired of these supply issues. I'm not sure if Tim Cook is being way too careful about over-production or what, but if he continues like this it's going to bite Apple in the ass.



    Apple is damn lucky that Motorola, RIM and Samsung have stumbled so badly with their tablets. If they hadn't you would have had tons of people flocking to them, the same as with the Android phones.



    Tim, get your act together on supply!
  • Reply 44 of 67
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    As an Apple shareholder, I'm really getting tired of these supply issues. I'm not sure if Tim Cook is being way too careful about over-production or what, but if he continues like this it's going to bite Apple in the ass.



    Have you seen the reports of Apple trying to secure more and more components from multiple suppliers, even paying billions up front for security of those components over other customers?



    As an Apple shareholder, I?m afraid of the day interest in Apple creates an overabundance of products for sale.
  • Reply 45 of 67
    macnycmacnyc Posts: 342member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Have you seen the reports of Apple trying to secure more and more components from multiple suppliers, even paying billions up front for security of those components over other customers?



    As an Apple shareholder, I?m afraid of the day interest in Apple creates an overabundance of products for sale.



    I'm worried about about what is happening today, not what might or might not happen in the future.
  • Reply 46 of 67
    While we're all happy with the numbers, does anyone else think Apple is going to pull back on May 2nd? After all, the index funds are going to have to sell almost 50% of their holdings for this NASDAQ re-weighting. Are there really that many on the buy side at this price??
  • Reply 47 of 67
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    I'm worried about about what is happening today, not what might or might not happen in the future.



    As a shareholder I worry about the future share value, nothing else.



    Not that for every device it doesn?t have to sell they miss out on the net profit, yet for every device they can?t sell that?s a loss of the manufacturing costs. Based on Apple?s profit margin it looks that 3 units they don?t have to sell equals 1 unit they can?t sell because they made too many.



    As a shareholder why do you wish Apple to have more than they can sell?
  • Reply 48 of 67
    macnycmacnyc Posts: 342member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    As a shareholder I worry about the future share value, nothing else.



    Not that for every device it doesn?t have to sell they miss out on the net profit, yet for every device they can?t sell that?s a loss of the manufacturing costs. Based on Apple?s profit margin it looks that 3 units they don?t have to sell equals 1 unit they can?t sell because they made too many.



    As a shareholder why do you wish Apple to have more than they can sell?



    Wow, I'm not sure why you always feel like you have to play devil's advocate to my posts but if you are, at least get things straight.



    The future value of the stock is directly affected by what is happening now, and what is happening now is a problem with supply. As I stated before, Apple is damn lucky everyone else has stumbled badly on the tablet front because otherwise people would have flocked to the other vendors because they can't buy an iPad.



    Arguing about the loss of manufacturing costs from units they don't sell is ridiculous. Then they might as well not sell anything. Just think of all the money they'd save then!



    Anyone in retail knows that not having inventory results in lost sales. That is Apple's problem not over-production, so why are you obsessed with a problem that Apple hasn't really had in the last 10 years? Which by the way was a problem that Tim Cook was brought in to solve (among other things).
  • Reply 49 of 67
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    Anyone in retail knows that not having inventory results in lost sales. That is Apple's problem not over-production, so why are you obsessed with a problem that Apple hasn't really had in the last 10 years? Which by the way was a problem that Tim Cook was brought in to solve (among other things).



    You either have too much supply or too little. Don’t say they should produce exactly the number that is needed. The goal is to maximize profits. In a simplified scenario that actually means you don’t over or under produce, but in a complex scenario there are many issues with bulk components and manufacturing, and the reality that you will never sell exactly as many as you need.



    You can’t create these products in a vacuum. Apple is doing volume and growth that no one else has achieved in CE. They have shipped almost 200M iOS-based devices since mid 2007. If their factories are at full tilt what do expect them to do besides get more manufacturing going? Do you know this takes time? Should Apple spend billions on a new plant just to make one more unit, 100 more units, 1000 more units pre day? That doesn’t even account for components supply. There are tipping points that make this viable and unviable. We don’t know if that isn’t a major issue, it could very well be constrained component supplier(s) and no option to add or replace them any time soon.



    You mentioned that you’re getting tired of supply issues thus implying that Apple isn’t producing enough to meet demand. Obviously that is true, but where is the proof they can produce more? Where is the proof that they are losing more money than producing too many, which is the flipside of your statement.



    Apple growth is great. Their revenue is great. Their profits are great. I see no slowing down at this point. I don’t care if there are some lines for the iPad right now, I do care that Apple is not faltering and the future of the company is upward. I’m a happy shareholder.
  • Reply 50 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    Someone with Apple said that?? Good thing it wasn't video since he couldn't have said it with a straight face.



    Stop with your passive-aggressive b-s.



    Soon, there'll be one of two outcomes: you'll agree with the dominant point of view here or you'll leave in frustration, recognizing that many folks here know what they're talking about.



    Either would be fine.
  • Reply 51 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    Exactly!



    As an Apple shareholder, I'm really getting tired of these supply issues. I'm not sure if Tim Cook is being way too careful about over-production or what, but if he continues like this it's going to bite Apple in the ass.



    Apple is damn lucky that Motorola, RIM and Samsung have stumbled so badly with their tablets. If they hadn't you would have had tons of people flocking to them, the same as with the Android phones.



    Tim, get your act together on supply!



    You can always sell and get out. You'll save yourself some bother going forward.
  • Reply 52 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    Wow, I'm not sure why you always feel like you have to play devil's advocate to my posts but if you are, at least get things straight.



    The future value of the stock is directly affected by what is happening now, and what is happening now is a problem with supply. As I stated before, Apple is damn lucky everyone else has stumbled badly on the tablet front because otherwise people would have flocked to the other vendors because they can't buy an iPad.



    Arguing about the loss of manufacturing costs from units they don't sell is ridiculous. Then they might as well not sell anything. Just think of all the money they'd save then!



    Anyone in retail knows that not having inventory results in lost sales. That is Apple's problem not over-production, so why are you obsessed with a problem that Apple hasn't really had in the last 10 years? Which by the way was a problem that Tim Cook was brought in to solve (among other things).



    Wow. You need to come up to speed on some basics, for a guy who says he owns shares.



    Excess demand can be met more easily than excess supply sold. This, apart from the downward spirals the latter can create.
  • Reply 53 of 67
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by TheOtherGeoff View Post


    The conf call alluded to the fact that numbers were low as they drained the iPad1 reserves and ramped up the iPad2s...



    they also said that they still can't keep up with demand where they would like to (they'd like to have 4-8 weeks of inventory in the pipe... they have less than 4 now).



    They sell everyone they are making... which means they underestimated demand, and are taking a hit on short term sales.



    Better to underestimate than overestimate demand. You think the Android tablet or Playbook sellers are jumping for joy at their current sales?
  • Reply 54 of 67
    macnycmacnyc Posts: 342member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Wow. You need to come up to speed on some basics, for a guy who says he owns shares.



    Excess demand can be met more easily than excess supply sold. This, apart from the downward spirals the latter can create.



    You didn't understand a thing I wrote so it's pointless for me to respond.
  • Reply 55 of 67
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 24,387member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Stop with your passive-aggressive b-s.



    Soon, there'll be one of two outcomes: you'll agree with the dominant point of view here or you'll leave in frustration, recognizing that many folks here know what they're talking about.



    Either would be fine.



    You're a bit on the grumpy side tonight.
  • Reply 56 of 67
    ivladivlad Posts: 742member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OriginalMacRat View Post


    Apple should buy T-Mobile.



    And do what with it? T-Mobile was for sale for a reason. The company only has cell towers that are actually very valuable. Apple has no experience in this area so something of this magnitude might take years to develop and implement.
  • Reply 57 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    You didn't understand a thing I wrote so it's pointless for me to respond.



    Actually, it is you that does not seem to have a very good idea of the key issues involved.



    Here's a hint: Google the phrase 'Newsboy Problem.' You might learn a thing or two about optimal order quantities.



    Unless you are convinced (or can convince us) that you know the demand function (and supply capabilities) for the iPad more than Apple does, you have no clue as to what you're hyperventilating about.
  • Reply 58 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    You're a bit on the grumpy side tonight.



    Yeah, I LOL when I am grumpy.
  • Reply 59 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macnyc View Post


    You didn't understand a thing I wrote so it's pointless for me to respond.



    The rest of us can all hope.....
  • Reply 60 of 67
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post


    No explanation of lower than expected iPad numbers?



    RTF previous post



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ssls6 View Post


    The break down of the number between models 1 and 2 would be the most telling metric. Model 2 was only introduced March 11th. The announcement was a month earlier I believe on the Feb 20th. That, in my opinion, would cause you to lose a month of 1 Qtr sales alone.



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