There is a big dip in iPhone market share in early 2008. Is that due to the initial iPhone losing its allure? I see a large Blackberry gain there too. Did RIM announce something new at that time?
IPod nano's dont erode the brand, nor did the Mac Mini. This wont either. It does need another name, and clearly cant have the top of the line features - no retina display. If people get higher status from an iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 then that market will still grow, as the cheaper market grows.
Exactly! They can go with a scratch-resistant plastic screen rather than glass, a plastic enclosure rather than metal. There are lots of ways to make the phone less luxurious without impacting the functionality and so keep a strong differential between it and the full price brand.
They'll reduce their margins on average but they won't cannibalize their high end sales because people will still aspire to the more beautiful luxurious handset.
There is a big dip in iPhone market share in early 2008. Is that due to the initial iPhone losing its allure? I see a large Blackberry gain there too. Did RIM announce something new at that time?
No - that was just as iPhone-1 neared end of life and people stopped buying in anticipation of the 3G which launched in Mid-2008. Oh and there was a month between the 3Gs announcement and release - during which I imagine iPhone sales dropped to almost nothing, but presumably Apple had already ran down inventories at that point.
There is a big dip in iPhone market share in early 2008. Is that due to the initial iPhone losing its allure? I see a large Blackberry gain there too. Did RIM announce something new at that time?
The iPhone sales dropped because supply dropped. Apple stopped production on the original model too soon so that the weeks running up to the iPhone 3G there was literally no supply in stores. For months before that the supplies were constrained.
What you'll notice is the typical holiday surge (Apple's Q1) followed by a still high post-holiday (Q2) sales with the drop off for the 2nd calendar quarter.
What's most alarming is that Apple has continued to grow quarter-over-quarter for the past two years so even the typical post-holiday drop isn't being seen. The drop is now recognized based on product release cycles, which might be one of the reasons Apple has moved the release to the Autumn. I hypothesis other reasons are bring their most profitable device release inline with their least, non-"hobby" profitable device release that is most propped up by a device that is very near the iPhone in many regards.
That may not happen, because it's possible that the next iPhone will be superficially similar to the iPhone 4 - at which point they will probably prefer to keep their cheap phone as the 3GS - possibly updated with a new A5 core.
This is highly unlikely, in my own opinion. If so, the 3GS would have to be capable of running iOS6 next year without reducing the functionality to a significant degree. Why? Because people still go onto 2 year contracts on the low-end model.
This is highly unlikely, in my own opinion. If so, the 3GS would have to be capable of running iOS6 next year without reducing the functionality to a significant degree. Why? Because people still go onto 2 year contracts on the low-end model.
Like I said, they'd have to give it an A5, or at the very least an A4 clocked at the same speed as the iPhone4. Apple so far have supported phones out to about 3 years, and I expect them to keep doing so as a point of difference to Android - where you are lucky to get software support for a year.
The 3GS as it currently is will almost certainly be capable of running iOS 6, because it's still being sold - it will probably fall off the support map around iOS 7.
Indeed - that's a better way to put it. But I'm really thinking about the 'imminent refresh' part - if you look at iPhone sales they have historically slumped in the months before a refresh as consumers wait. Clearly not this time.
The latest data in that chart was from January. So it's not approaching "imminent refresh" when those data were gathered. And that's why there's no slumping in that chart.
I suspect that the "clever things" Tim Cook alluded to during the last earnings call was the use of iCloud to eliminate the need for physical synching of the iPhone with a host PC. Because a large portion of phone purchasers in Asian markets have no PC, the ability to manage music and other content and get OS updates over-the-air gives Apple a huge competitive boost. In other words, the way to make an iPhone more affordable in China or India isn't do dumb down and cheapen the phone. Rather you make it more affordable by eliminating the need to buy a PC!
Could someone define market share for me? I thought market share was the number of units of a particular brand that people are out there using as compared to all units. But, the way iPhone market share takes some dramatic drops before the releases of new models in that graph, I'm wondering if I'm confused and market share is only the number of units of a particular brand sold in a particular quarter out of all units of all brands sold in that quarter, ignoring any units people already own.
The concept you are misattributing is called the "installed base". It changes slower than market share, which refers to a finite period of time, and tracks new sales.
Rather you make it more affordable by eliminating the need to buy a PC!
Ummm.....no other phone requires you to buy a PC. I don't think that will be a big enough differentiator.
Other than the screen, the iP4 doesn't excel WRT hardware, compared with the newer Android phones. Given that with Android, different phones can have different hardware, I'm not sure that Apple will make any phone that can run only a subset of iOS apps. Given that the hardware is now nothing special, to further reduce it at the expense of functionality seems ill-advised.
Apple's best feature is the ecosystem. And releasing anything that cannot make full use of the ecosystem would rob the iPhone of its finest aspect.
The latest data in that chart was from January. So it's not approaching "imminent refresh" when those data were gathered. And that's why there's no slumping in that chart.
[...]The 3GS as it currently is will almost certainly be capable of running iOS 6, because it's still being sold - it will probably fall off the support map around iOS 7.
I really hope so. In the mean time, the iOS beta 1 does not give any indications that that is the case
This is an awkward moment... The android fans definitely can't celebrate this, and the Apple fans can't say 'Told ya'! after the repeated argument of why Apple doesn't care about market share. Time for RIM to cheer up?
I think every even remotely intelligent person has known for a long time that the iPhone was constrained in the US by only being on one carrier and expected it to regain share from Android once it was on Verizon. The iPhone is still constrained by being on fewer carriers than Android, both in the US and globally. When Samsung released the original Galaxy Tab they said it was going to be on 500 carriers in 120+ countries. RIM makes similar claims. I believe the iPhone is only on around 200 carriers in under 100 countries (I think it was 80-something countries at last count). They're missing some significant markets. Apple is a relative newcomer whereas Android is being used by established players who had existing relationships with carriers, so this is to be expected. They're also trying to do something different (i.e., sell primarily through their own retail channels using their own marketing) whereas Android fits neatly into the existing model where you choose a carrier and they give you a choice of phone. So they're going against the grain. But they're continually making progress and that's what we're seeing. Android doesn't appear to be slowing them down.
The graph shows the iPhone bouncing up and down between 20% and 30%. Android is growing at the expense of RIM and M$.
I don't see Apple continually making progress. Their share is about the same as it was in 1998.
Apple's share right now at the end of their iPhone's 4 life cycle is the same as it was in mid-2008 at the start of their iPhone-3 life-cycle. At this rate they'll be 40% in the US once the next model launches.
Comments
IPod nano's dont erode the brand, nor did the Mac Mini. This wont either. It does need another name, and clearly cant have the top of the line features - no retina display. If people get higher status from an iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 then that market will still grow, as the cheaper market grows.
Exactly! They can go with a scratch-resistant plastic screen rather than glass, a plastic enclosure rather than metal. There are lots of ways to make the phone less luxurious without impacting the functionality and so keep a strong differential between it and the full price brand.
They'll reduce their margins on average but they won't cannibalize their high end sales because people will still aspire to the more beautiful luxurious handset.
There is a big dip in iPhone market share in early 2008. Is that due to the initial iPhone losing its allure? I see a large Blackberry gain there too. Did RIM announce something new at that time?
No - that was just as iPhone-1 neared end of life and people stopped buying in anticipation of the 3G which launched in Mid-2008. Oh and there was a month between the 3Gs announcement and release - during which I imagine iPhone sales dropped to almost nothing, but presumably Apple had already ran down inventories at that point.
There is a big dip in iPhone market share in early 2008. Is that due to the initial iPhone losing its allure? I see a large Blackberry gain there too. Did RIM announce something new at that time?
The iPhone sales dropped because supply dropped. Apple stopped production on the original model too soon so that the weeks running up to the iPhone 3G there was literally no supply in stores. For months before that the supplies were constrained.
Here is a graph of iPhone sales: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:IP...ter_simple.svg
What you'll notice is the typical holiday surge (Apple's Q1) followed by a still high post-holiday (Q2) sales with the drop off for the 2nd calendar quarter.
What's most alarming is that Apple has continued to grow quarter-over-quarter for the past two years so even the typical post-holiday drop isn't being seen. The drop is now recognized based on product release cycles, which might be one of the reasons Apple has moved the release to the Autumn. I hypothesis other reasons are bring their most profitable device release inline with their least, non-"hobby" profitable device release that is most propped up by a device that is very near the iPhone in many regards.
That may not happen, because it's possible that the next iPhone will be superficially similar to the iPhone 4 - at which point they will probably prefer to keep their cheap phone as the 3GS - possibly updated with a new A5 core.
This is highly unlikely, in my own opinion. If so, the 3GS would have to be capable of running iOS6 next year without reducing the functionality to a significant degree. Why? Because people still go onto 2 year contracts on the low-end model.
This is highly unlikely, in my own opinion. If so, the 3GS would have to be capable of running iOS6 next year without reducing the functionality to a significant degree. Why? Because people still go onto 2 year contracts on the low-end model.
Like I said, they'd have to give it an A5, or at the very least an A4 clocked at the same speed as the iPhone4. Apple so far have supported phones out to about 3 years, and I expect them to keep doing so as a point of difference to Android - where you are lucky to get software support for a year.
The 3GS as it currently is will almost certainly be capable of running iOS 6, because it's still being sold - it will probably fall off the support map around iOS 7.
I saw better looking graphs from Quattro Pro in 1992.
I was thinking of Lotus' Symphony! Rather embarrassing don't you think. Anyway, my Android EVO is gone as soon as Sprint gets the iPhone!
Indeed - that's a better way to put it. But I'm really thinking about the 'imminent refresh' part - if you look at iPhone sales they have historically slumped in the months before a refresh as consumers wait. Clearly not this time.
The latest data in that chart was from January. So it's not approaching "imminent refresh" when those data were gathered. And that's why there's no slumping in that chart.
Could someone define market share for me? I thought market share was the number of units of a particular brand that people are out there using as compared to all units. But, the way iPhone market share takes some dramatic drops before the releases of new models in that graph, I'm wondering if I'm confused and market share is only the number of units of a particular brand sold in a particular quarter out of all units of all brands sold in that quarter, ignoring any units people already own.
The concept you are misattributing is called the "installed base". It changes slower than market share, which refers to a finite period of time, and tracks new sales.
Rather you make it more affordable by eliminating the need to buy a PC!
Ummm.....no other phone requires you to buy a PC. I don't think that will be a big enough differentiator.
Other than the screen, the iP4 doesn't excel WRT hardware, compared with the newer Android phones. Given that with Android, different phones can have different hardware, I'm not sure that Apple will make any phone that can run only a subset of iOS apps. Given that the hardware is now nothing special, to further reduce it at the expense of functionality seems ill-advised.
Apple's best feature is the ecosystem. And releasing anything that cannot make full use of the ecosystem would rob the iPhone of its finest aspect.
The latest data in that chart was from January. So it's not approaching "imminent refresh" when those data were gathered. And that's why there's no slumping in that chart.
Actually the lastest data from Apple were much later than that. For example http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events...r_Market_Share
There have also been hints of Q2 numbers that are holding steady - but I can't recall exactly where.
[...]The 3GS as it currently is will almost certainly be capable of running iOS 6, because it's still being sold - it will probably fall off the support map around iOS 7.
I really hope so. In the mean time, the iOS beta 1 does not give any indications that that is the case
This is an awkward moment... The android fans definitely can't celebrate this, and the Apple fans can't say 'Told ya'! after the repeated argument of why Apple doesn't care about market share. Time for RIM to cheer up?
I think every even remotely intelligent person has known for a long time that the iPhone was constrained in the US by only being on one carrier and expected it to regain share from Android once it was on Verizon. The iPhone is still constrained by being on fewer carriers than Android, both in the US and globally. When Samsung released the original Galaxy Tab they said it was going to be on 500 carriers in 120+ countries. RIM makes similar claims. I believe the iPhone is only on around 200 carriers in under 100 countries (I think it was 80-something countries at last count). They're missing some significant markets. Apple is a relative newcomer whereas Android is being used by established players who had existing relationships with carriers, so this is to be expected. They're also trying to do something different (i.e., sell primarily through their own retail channels using their own marketing) whereas Android fits neatly into the existing model where you choose a carrier and they give you a choice of phone. So they're going against the grain. But they're continually making progress and that's what we're seeing. Android doesn't appear to be slowing them down.
But they're continually making progress and that's what we're seeing. Android doesn't appear to be slowing them down.
The graph shows the iPhone bouncing up and down between 20% and 30%. Android is growing at the expense of RIM and M$.
I don't see Apple continually making progress. Their share is about the same as it was in 1998.
The graph shows the iPhone bouncing up and down between 20% and 30%. Android is growing at the expense of RIM and M$.
I don't see Apple continually making progress. Their share is about the same as it was in 1998.
Apple's share right now at the end of their iPhone's 4 life cycle is the same as it was in mid-2008 at the start of their iPhone-3 life-cycle. At this rate they'll be 40% in the US once the next model launches.
Remember Windoze 98? I do...and ME, and 2000, and Vista...
May the plummet continue.
Cheers,
Cameron