Massive Android activations not viewed as concern for Apple

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  • Reply 81 of 167
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post


    I don't see Google's reason as being altruistic at all. Big numbers sound good especially in advertising. Since Google is interested in number of eyes on the screen, the number of activations give an indication of the number of "newish" accounts are looking at devices even if the device has been used by 3 people prior to that.



    I'm sure it's not altruistic, I'm sure the aim is to further their business, but the point stands. Audited numbers are more valuable than un-audited ones. Well defined numbers are more valuable than loosely defined ones. Google must have a reason for choosing to leave this number so poorly defined, because otherwise it's an easy marketing win to just define it.
  • Reply 82 of 167
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lamewing View Post


    Yes I do believe this. Why? If you go to a Verizon or AT&T Store it is almost all Android (and to a smaller extent - Windows 7 Phone) with only 1 or 2 iPhones on display. There are simply more AT&T/Verizon stores than Apple stores.



    Since when is market share determined by how many phones are sitting on a shelf collecting dust?
  • Reply 83 of 167
    I am glad that Android is doing so well. I don't question the Activation numbers because it's irrelevant. For me, the story is that it's doing well. Why do I care? This will push Apple to do better and release better functionality sooner than waiting to drag out every functionality for more profits. If Android didn't come along, how long would it have taken iPhone to get hotspot tethering, or notifications ? Apple will likely improve on notifications and other features which will then challenge Google to improve, and the cycle continues. This is good for all users. IMHO, if it wasn't for Google, we wouldn't hear about rumours about an iPAD HD or an iPhone 4GS being released so soon. Apple cannot keep up against so many Android manufacturers releasing new products every week so they're doing their best my shortening their cycles. We get Apple products faster instead of having to wait so long.
  • Reply 84 of 167
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    I read that to mean June quarter. So how did they get that? If Apple does sell 20 million iPhones for the june quarter that's only about 6-7 million iPhones per month. How does he account for the other 23-24 million iOS-based activations?



    Munster wrote 29 million iOS activations in the June quarter.



    I'm guessing that Apple sold 18 million iPhones, 7 million iPads, and 4 million iPod touches in that period.



    It's worth noting that Munster has a laughably poor track record. Anything he writes is likely to be wrong, not right.
  • Reply 85 of 167
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JunkMailfever View Post


    This will push Apple to do better and release better functionality sooner than waiting to drag out every functionality for more profits.



    It's a great story, and it's often repeated, but is it really true? Apple brought out the iPod touch even though they had practically no competition left in the PMP market. The iPad-2 was launched before most competitors even managed to their first generation multi-touch tablet. Over on the store front, they keep improving the Apple Store, even though it is not only leading in the C-E retail space, but in the entire retail industry. They continue to improve their music & app stores where they are arguably dominant, just as much if not more than their bookstore where they are definitely not.



    Quote:

    If Android didn't come along, how long would it have taken iPhone to get hotspot tethering, or notifications ?



    Hot-spot tethering wasn't a technical limitation, it was a carrier limitation. Notifications may have some validity, but it's a classic 'post hoc ergo propter hoc'. Just because Apple's notification system came after Android's doesn't mean that it was driven by competition from Android, it's plausible, but it's far from proof.



    It's just as plausible to say that Apple innovates as fast as it can in a market, irrespective of other participants, but determined by the value of the market. Perhaps notifications didn't get a major overhaul till iOS 5 because they were busy adding support for Apps, better iPod functions, tablet support, etc. Really it's not like there have been any 'ho-hum' releases of iOS, not from a developer perspective anyway.



    You may be right that competition drives Apple to innovate faster, but it's definitely not open and shut.
  • Reply 86 of 167
    davidwdavidw Posts: 1,274member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    So Apple's failure to grab as much as one-third of the smartphone market in 4 years should also be deemed a failure in some ways? I think not, and I'm fairly certain you wouldn't apply the same standard.



    In the fall of 2009 Apple held 14% of the smartphone market, up from 2% a year prior. That was considered "eating everyone's lunch" by some analysts. In the fall of 2009 Android had 2% share, and now surges to 38% in less than two year's. Is that still the equivalent of "eating everyone's lunch"?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/henry...-lunch-2009-10



    So Solipcism, there's still the unanswered question: Which OS should the OEM's be adopting?



    Don't forget, Apple went from 2% to 14% of the smartphone market (from 2008 to 2009) with one model of a phone that sold for no less than $199.99 (US) and was usually only available from one carrier in each of the limited amount of countries they were sold in.



    Android, on the other hand, went from 2% to 38% (from 2009 to 2011) by being free on dozens of models of phones and many of them are free (or nearly free) and are available from every carrier in every country.



    Just the fact that Apple grabbed 2% of the smartphone market (from it's introduction in 2007 to 2008) by selling one model of a phone (that wasn't even 3G) for no less than $499.99 (US) and was only available from one carrier in the hand full of countries they were sold was quite a feat. Android didn't do that until 2009, even though it was available to all the phone makers for free, for phones on all the carriers, and was available several years before the iPhone.
  • Reply 87 of 167
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    My wife has an Android phone which she hasn't activated yet, lol. She uses mine whenever she wants to play Angry birds...



    I wonder how such non-tech people factor in the activation counts...
  • Reply 88 of 167
    lamewinglamewing Posts: 742member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post


    I guess it depends on your circle of friends really...



    I work in small cafe in Cleveland, OH, and I've noticed many more iPhones, iPads and Mac laptops than a total of all other makes and brands. I am still amazed at how many Apple products I see on a day to day basis.



    I am 43 and returned to university after leaving the military. My wife is a Assistant Professor of Pharmacy. My "circle" therefore includes university students, pharmacy students, professors, as well as ex-military folks. I know many people in all walks of life and while the iPhone is very popular, I see many Android devices, plus a few Windows Phones as well (besides mine).
  • Reply 89 of 167
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post


    As much as I hate to admit this, under the current roll-out strategy the iphone in the long run is going to be marginalized and end up with a static (i.e. replacement level) and then eventually greatly reduced market share.



    Hope I am wrong. But I don't believe the iphone is going to stay at it's current level given the onslaught of devices it faces.



    I completely agree. Replace "Android" with "Windows" and "iPhone" with "Mac" and this story could have been lifted from the mid-1980s. As could so many of the fanboy responses - "yeah but Android [Windows] sucks", etc.



    I so, so much do not want to see Apple repeat with iOS devices the same mistakes it made with the Mac in the 1980s. I say that as someone who had a 512K Mac in 1985 - Apple was light-years ahead of the competition in both substance and style (sound familiar?), but squandered it.



    Yeah, some of you are going to say "but look at them today - Apple's bigger now than ever". Yeah - and my response is that that's pretty much a textbook definition of a miracle. That Apple survived the mid-1990s is amazing - I'm glad they did, but that doesn't make it any less amazing. And but for one breakthrough product - the original iPod - they probably *wouldn't* be here today.
  • Reply 90 of 167
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


    Don't forget, Apple went from 2% to 14% of the smartphone market (from 2008 to 2009) with one model of a phone that sold for no less than $199.99 (US) and was usually only available from one carrier in each of the limited amount of countries they were sold in.



    Android, on the other hand, went from 2% to 38% (from 2009 to 2011) by being free on dozens of models of phones and many of them are free (or nearly free) and are available from every carrier in every country.



    Your numbers are correct (though they're US only), but they're not good numbers to use for this comparison because they are population figures not sales figures. As such they get damped by the pre-existing population of smartphones, so fast growth of sales early in the smartphone segment's life will look faster than the same sales growth later. When considering products that come on an 18month contract, it would make more sense to look at sales figures than population figures.



    Considering it from a sales perspective, Android went from 39% of smartphone sales in May-10, to 49% in May-11. Apple in the same period went from 23% to 31%. The two platforms are actually growing at roughly the same rate in the US, and within a few months they will be an effective duopoly in US smartphones - at which point things will get interesting.



    Unfortunately we lack anything resembling good numbers for other markets, especially developing nations.
  • Reply 91 of 167
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sierrajeff View Post


    I completely agree. Replace "Android" with "Windows" and "iPhone" with "Mac" and this story could have been lifted from the mid-1980s. As could so many of the fanboy responses - "yeah but Android [Windows] sucks", etc.



    There are big differences.
    • Apple is far far bigger in smartphones than it ever was in personal computers.

    • In the 80s Apple was never the dominant development platform, which iOS is

    • Handset platforms are less of a natural monopoly than desktop platforms were

    • The pricing difference between an iPhone and a quality android handset is far lower than the price difference between Mac & PC in the 80s.

    • DOS/windows was far less fragmented than Android.[/*]

  • Reply 92 of 167
    krabbelenkrabbelen Posts: 243member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MacInsider2 View Post


    As much as I hate to admit this, under the current roll-out strategy the iphone in the long run is going to be marginalized and end up with a static (i.e. replacement level) and then eventually greatly reduced market share.



    Go to any cell store in the USA and you're slammed with tons of visually impressive Android devices. I have had bad success lately convincing people to go with iphone (which I still don't understand but that Droid marketing is very very successful on Verizon). The android selection is so large, prices initially cheaper, that the single iphone just looks pathetic next too all these crappy functioning but visually impressive devices.



    Hope I am wrong. But I don't believe the iphone is going to stay at it's current level given the onslaught of devices it faces.



    Why marketshare isn't really an issue right now is because the market itself is growing very quickly. Read Asymco.com. As time goes on, people are replacing feature phones with smart phones. The smart phone market is only just now approaching 50% of current mobile phone market...



    That means that there is at THIS moment, the potential for phone makers to double the number of smart phones in existence today! Apple is selling EVERY phone it can make. It could sell TWICE as many and still retain the SAME marketshare!



    Edit: Actually, Asymco.com puts that tipping point in the US (when smartphones make up half the mobile phone market) at over a year away. So, there is a long way to go before we have to worry that Android activations are actually taking sales away from Apple.
  • Reply 93 of 167
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Since when is market share determined by how many phones are sitting on a shelf collecting dust?



    Market share is determined by what the mindless masses buy (not a few elite cognoscenti, or the hard-core fan base). And if there are 5 to 7 Android phones on display and 1 iPhone, then yes a lot of the mindless masses think "gee, I get more choices with Android. Oooh, and I like the corners on this one better. I think I'll get it."



    I love the iPhone, but a lot of you on here don't get that most people -- meaning most *consumers* who cough up *money* -- don't think like you do.



    And a lot of us, who love what Apple's done, fear a repeat of the Mac/Windows debacle from the 1980s and 1990s. Bill Gates should be selling car insurance right now; Microsoft *never* should have had a chance to get the world working on a Windows-based OS. But when it became 5 or 7 or 20 various PC clones in different colors and shapes, and 1 Mac... people went for the PCs. (I know, I'm generalizing, and corporate tech groups had a lot to do with it. But the basic point remains - just because you or I love the iPhone and recognize its superiority, doesn't mean that it's guaranteed success forever.)
  • Reply 94 of 167
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Sierrajeff View Post


    Market share is determined by what the mindless masses buy (not a few elite cognoscenti, or the hard-core fan base). And if there are 5 to 7 Android phones on display and 1 iPhone, then yes a lot of the mindless masses think "gee, I get more choices with Android. Oooh, and I like the corners on this one better. I think I'll get it."



    And that's still a senseless argument. My AT&T store has 15 Android phones on display and 1 Apple iPhone. Yet Android doesn't outsell Apple 15:1.



    Your original argument is that the number of Android phones was evidence that Android outsells Apple. That is, of course, nonsense. One might say that the number o Android phones HELPS carriers to sell Android phones, but your argument that you can somehow determine market share simply by looking at the number of phones on the shelf is crazy.
  • Reply 95 of 167
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Agreed, although I'm very suspicious of the 550,000 activations per day figure since it can't be verified by anyone else - and Google refuses to provide any sales figures to back it up.



    Apple SOLD 16 million iPhones in the quarter and Google claims 50 million activations. Does anyone really believe that they sold 3 Android phones for every iPhone? Based on what I'm seeing in the real world, that doesn't seem remotely plausible.



    If Google were being honest, they're report how many phones were sold (and don't tell me they don't know - they get a record of how many Android licenses are issued each quarter). Or tell us how many activations are counted per phone. I'll bet the number is significantly greater than 1.



    Don't compare apples and oranges.



    The only way Android can compete with iOS is to float around a bloated unverfified number. And that's the ONLY way Rubin can secure his job at Google.



    But who cares about 550K activations per day when Apple takes home the biggest slice in the profie pie when everything is said and done?
  • Reply 96 of 167
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 22,992member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by DavidW View Post


    Android didn't do that until 2009, even though it was available to all the phone makers for free, for phones on all the carriers, and was available several years before the iPhone.



    The first consumer Android phone wasn't available until months AFTER the iPhone went on sale, TMobile's G1 in late Oct/2008 , not years before. And that was on one carrier only. In addition the first iPhone-comparable Android phone (original Droid) wasn't released until late in 2009.



    http://www.htc.com/www/press.aspx?id=66338&lang=1033
  • Reply 97 of 167
    matrix07matrix07 Posts: 1,993member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by JunkMailfever View Post


    I am glad that Android is doing so well. I don't question the Activation numbers because it's irrelevant. For me, the story is that it's doing well. Why do I care? This will push Apple to do better and release better functionality sooner than waiting to drag out every functionality for more profits. If Android didn't come along, how long would it have taken iPhone to get hotspot tethering, or notifications ? Apple will likely improve on notifications and other features which will then challenge Google to improve, and the cycle continues. This is good for all users. IMHO, if it wasn't for Google, we wouldn't hear about rumours about an iPAD HD or an iPhone 4GS being released so soon. Apple cannot keep up against so many Android manufacturers releasing new products every week so they're doing their best my shortening their cycles. We get Apple products faster instead of having to wait so long.



    There's one little flaw in your theory, iPhone 5 (4s) is late.
  • Reply 98 of 167
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    You may be right that competition drives Apple to innovate faster, but it's definitely not open and shut.



    I think competition drives Apple to innovate faster and to release functionality faster. If Android didn't show a better notification system, Apple might be content with leaving what they have because they are the only game in town and only improve it when they're ready. We know they're capable of delivering a better notification and could have done so earlier but resources are spent elsewhere they consider a priority.



    I work in a company where we are easily the market leader in our space. Yet, we are constantly cost cutting and looking for improvements, because that's what market leaders do. Apple is the market leader in many spaces, but it doesn't hurt to have some competition so they don't get complacent.
  • Reply 99 of 167
    pokepoke Posts: 506member
    What Apple needs right now is a $300 prepaid iPhone lite (or a iPod touch 3G that lets you buy data, voice and text however you choose). I think it's highly likely they're going to do this soon (as in September). Their strategy since the start has been to take power away from the carriers. Having an affordable, unsubsidised iPhone is the way to do that. I think Apple imagines a future where those carrier stores don't even exist. You'll buy your mobile devices from the normal retail channels (preferably an Apple Store) and add coverage as needed. SIMs will, hopefully, be a thing of the past. That's the really disruptive force here and they've only just begun. Apple knows how to sell stuff. Right now the carriers are in their way.
  • Reply 100 of 167
    dbtincdbtinc Posts: 134member
    Soon's as Sprint offers an iPhone will be the day the EVO goes in the can.
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