Apple expected to post strong $24B+ quarter in face of 'heightened expectations'

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Even though Apple faces some lofty expectations from Wall Street heading into next week's quarterly earnings report, one analyst is "confident" in the company's ability to surprise on the upside.



Shaw Wu with Sterne Agee said in a note to investors Friday that estimates on Wall Street have ratcheted higher in the past week in anticipation of next Tuesday's earnings. But despite these "heightened expectations," he doesn't expect Apple to disappoint, and is "confident" that the company will in fact exceed them.



Wu has forecast Apple to report $24.6 billion in revenue and $5.95 in earnings per share, compared with market consensus of $24.7 billion and $5.73 EPS. Both are materially higher than Apple's traditionally conservative guidance of $23 billion and $5.03 EPS.



He sees gross margin as a key driver for Apple, which is why the projected $5.95 EPS is 22 cents above Wall Street consensus. Wu's analysis models the company's gross margins at 39.8 percent, versus consensus closer to 39 percent, and Apple's guidance at 38 percent.



Wu sees higher margins because checks within Apple's supply chain indicate Apple is seeing more favorable component pricing. He also expects to see a richer product mix towards Apple's highly profitable iPhone.



Wu has called for Apple to sell about 17 million iPhones in the June quarter. For comparison, Robert Cihra with Caris & Company sees Apple reporting 15.8 million iPhones sold, Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray has forecast 16 million, and Mike Abramsky with RBC Capital Markets expects sales of 17.5 million. At the high end, Mark Moskowitz has called for Apple to sell 19.6 million iPhones in the three-month span.



The latest numbers from Wu also predict sales of 6.8 million iPads, 3.9 million Macs, and 8.3 million iPods in the June quarter.







Looking to the next quarter, Wu said that Apple's guidance to investors could prove to be less conservative than usual. Based on the aforementioned supply chain checks which suggest good availability of components, he believes the company could offer a more optimistic outlook for the September quarter.



For that quarter, he has forecast record revenue of $27.7 billion and $6.57 earnings per share, versus market consensus of $27.6 billion and $6.37 EPS.



"We see several potential product catalysts ahead including the launch of iCloud and its next-generation operating systems including Mac OS X Lion and iOS 5; further refreshes of its Mac line (MacBook Air, MacBook, Mac mini, Mac Pro) to the Sandy Bridge architecture; and an interim but important iPhone update in the Fall timeframe featuring dual-core processors and better cameras," he said.



Apple will report earnings for its third quarter of fiscal 2011 next Tuesday, July 19, after markets close in the U.S. AppleInsider will have full in-depth coverage.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 10
    cvaldes1831cvaldes1831 Posts: 1,832member
    By contract, here's the Apple Finance Board consensus:



    Revenue: $26.556B

    EPS: $6.66



    Macs: 4.33M

    iPods: 8.335M

    iPhones: 17.602M

    iPads: 8.325M



    It's worth pointing out that Shaw Wu is not a star-rated (four or five stars) analyst per Starmine.



    Here's Andy Zaky's numbers



    Revenue: $27.32B

    EPS: $6.84



    Macs: 4.28M

    iPods: 8.8M

    iPhones: 16.5M

    iPads: 10M



    Sources:

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/...ate-index.html

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2778...estimate-index
  • Reply 2 of 10
    indymacindymac Posts: 9member
    You make it sound like Wu is predicting higher revenue than the consensus, should it be 23.7 for the consensus?
  • Reply 3 of 10
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,732member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cvaldes1831 View Post


    By contract, here's the Apple Finance Board consensus:



    Revenue: $26.556B

    EPS: $6.66



    Macs: 4.33M

    iPods: 8.335M

    iPhones: 17.602M

    iPads: 8.325M



    It's worth pointing out that Shaw Wu is not a star-rated (four or five stars) analyst per Starmine.



    Here's Andy Zaky's numbers



    Revenue: $27.32B

    EPS: $6.84



    Macs: 4.28M

    iPods: 8.8M

    iPhones: 16.5M

    iPads: 10M



    Sources:

    http://www.postsateventide.com/2011/...ate-index.html

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2778...estimate-index



    I suspect your quoted analysts will be more accurate CValdes. IMHO, the figures posted in the story are intended as evidence later of how much Apple out-performed expectations once the actual figures get released.
  • Reply 4 of 10
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    IMHO, the figures posted in the story are intended as evidence later of how much Apple out-performed expectations once the actual figures get released.



    Curious opinion! "Intended" by whom?
  • Reply 5 of 10
    ... and next week Apple's quarter will be even more fantastic than Google's quarter...



    Google - up 12.5% after quarterly release



    Apple - down 7.75% after quarterly release
  • Reply 6 of 10
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,732member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by piot View Post


    Curious opinion! "Intended" by whom?



    The author of the article of course. \

    It makes the followup article the day the results are posted that much more dramatic.
  • Reply 7 of 10
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member
    Lots of spam lately... and it seems to stick around for quite a while.
  • Reply 8 of 10
    mr. hmr. h Posts: 4,728member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    Lots of spam lately... and it seems to stick around for quite a while.



    There's a reason we have report-post buttons. If you see spam, please report it!
  • Reply 9 of 10
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mr. H View Post


    There's a reason we have report-post buttons. If you see spam, please report it!



    Well, I guess I just disclosed my iq level... I didn't even know that button was there.



    What's that? Oh... I see... my past comments already gave away my iq level...
  • Reply 10 of 10
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,732member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


    Well, I guess I just disclosed my iq level... I didn't even know that button was there.



    What's that? Oh... I see... my past comments already gave away my iq level...



    I forgot that button was there too.
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