Notes of interest from Apple's Q3 2011 conference call

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  • Reply 21 of 59
    brookstbrookst Posts: 62member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shompa View Post


    Time for Apple to be crazy.



    70 billion in cash:

    Buy

    ARM: 15 billion (the processor that will rule the world)

    AMD 7 billion (great graphics, high end servers CPU)

    NOKIA 20 billion (great infrastructure. Great manufacturing plants)

    LM Ericsson 40 billion (Sells most Base station in the world. Could lead to the AppleNetwork

    Build its own Foundry 7.5billion. Why help Samsung/TSMC to copy A5-6 processors.



    + give a couple of billion to Steves health. ISteve needs to come back!



    Keep in mind that you pay a ~30% premium over market cap when you buy a company.



    ARM I could see; that would really wrench Android. The others, not so much -- why buy companies you've beaten in the market and whose value is only going to go down?



    What I would like to see is a Sony purchase. Go vertical integration on content, media distribution, and home electronics. Market cap is about $27B, so figure $35B, or half of the cash reserves.
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  • Reply 22 of 59
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shompa View Post


    time for apple to be crazy.



    70 billion in cash:

    Buy

    arm: 15 billion (the processor that will rule the world)

    amd 7 billion (great graphics, high end servers cpu)

    nokia 20 billion (great infrastructure. Great manufacturing plants)

    lm ericsson 40 billion (sells most base station in the world. Could lead to the applenetwork

    build its own foundry 7.5billion. Why help samsung/tsmc to copy a5-6 processors.



    + give a couple of billion to steves health. Isteve needs to come back!



    buy EA







    9
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  • Reply 23 of 59
    elrothelroth Posts: 1,201member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by strobe View Post


    Apple should consider splitting up operationally. The more these mobile tween products consume Apple's attention, the more they seem to drop the ball on professional products.



    I hope they come up with a better way to produce actual computer software. As an Apple Investor I'm really happy with the success of the iPhone, iPad, etc., but as a computer user I'm not happy with the state of Apple's computer software - iMovie, QuickTimeX, Final Cut Pro, the uglyfying of iTunes,... it seems like they sent all the good software people to iOS, and let the amateurs run amok in the Mac software division.
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  • Reply 24 of 59
    prof. peabodyprof. peabody Posts: 2,860member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucep View Post


    buy EA



    Ewww! Whatever for?
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  • Reply 25 of 59
    shadashshadash Posts: 470member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by shompa View Post


    Time for Apple to be crazy.



    70 billion in cash:

    Buy

    ARM: 15 billion (the processor that will rule the world)

    AMD 7 billion (great graphics, high end servers CPU)

    NOKIA 20 billion (great infrastructure. Great manufacturing plants)

    LM Ericsson 40 billion (Sells most Base station in the world. Could lead to the AppleNetwork

    Build its own Foundry 7.5billion. Why help Samsung/TSMC to copy A5-6 processors.



    + give a couple of billion to Steves health. ISteve needs to come back!





    I'd agree with the build the foundry part. Anyone listen to Horace Deidu's last podcast? He identified the inability to meet demand as Apple's biggest problem right now, and what he thinks the company should spend its billions on. If not building their own, at least ensuring that their contractors can increase production.
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  • Reply 26 of 59
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:

    Q: Including prepaid, indirect distribution markets?



    A: Looking at emerging markets in the aggregate, most of those are prepaid. We believe postpaid is better in the long term for customer, carrier and Apple. In general we are playing in the prepaid market -- not avoiding that market, we know we need to play there in order to have the types of volumes we'd like to have.



    Except a cheaper iPhone emerging. Perhaps first for China Mobile.
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  • Reply 27 of 59
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by BrooksT View Post


    ARM I could see; that would really wrench Android. The others, not so much -- why buy companies you've beaten in the market and whose value is only going to go down?



    Less than you might think, ARM's licenses to firms like NVDIA would still be in place.
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  • Reply 28 of 59
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by strobe View Post


    Apple should consider splitting up operationally. The more these mobile tween products consume Apple's attention, the more they seem to drop the ball on professional products.



    Just go away and crawl back into your hole.
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  • Reply 29 of 59
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    On the prepay market, Cook said "We know that we need to play there in order to have the kinds volumes we'd like to have." The company has "a lot more to do" in expanding channels for the device.



    By this statement I'm pretty convinced we'll see a $300~ USD iPhone this September. Tim has been hinting loudly that this is gonna be the next major market for the iPhone and that Apple wants the iPhone to be a high volume device, not just a high end device.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Last quarter, we sold more iPads in K-12 than we did Macs," Cook said. "To do that in just five quarters is absolutely shocking. We never would have predicted this."



    This is simply astounding. In my opinion this adds fuel to the fire for the discontinuing of the white MacBook. The iPad (not the Air) is effectively replacing the MacBook in education and likely for a lot of consumers that use their devices primarily for web, photos and music.
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  • Reply 30 of 59
    jcozjcoz Posts: 251member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    Except a cheaper iPhone emerging. Perhaps first for China Mobile.



    I was more convinced of that before the conference call. Many of his answers, including that one, have me questioning any type of new cheaper iphone.



    After the call I think continuing to sell the 3GS for a lower price is a much more likely scenario than Apple announcing a new product for that space in September.
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  • Reply 31 of 59
    jcozjcoz Posts: 251member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by blackbook View Post


    By this statement I'm pretty convinced we'll see a $300~ USD iPhone this September. Tim has been hinting loudly that this is gonna be the next major market for the iPhone and that Apple wants the iPhone to be a high volume device, not just a high end device.



    See I just didn't get that at all from those comments. His preference for post paid, and saying that they are still trying to figure out how best to play in that market dont seem like a company just months away from launching a new product to compete there.



    I could be wrong and I hope I am.
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  • Reply 32 of 59
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jcoz View Post


    See I just didn't get that at all from those comments. His preference for post paid, and saying that they are still trying to figure out how best to play in that market dont seem like a company just months away from launching a new product to compete there.



    I could be wrong and I hope I am.



    I don't think we can expect to see a 'cheap' iPhone (except perhaps a TD-SCDMA China-only one) for as long as iPhone is growing 100%+ YoY. When we see iPhone YoY growth dipping to 80% that's when it will be imperative.
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  • Reply 33 of 59
    mac voyermac voyer Posts: 1,295member
    At $76B, Apple has just about enough money to clone Steve Jobs. Imagine what they could make by selling Steve Jobs clones. First customer, RIM, quickly followed by HP and MS.
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  • Reply 34 of 59
    macsharkmacshark Posts: 229member
    Quote:

    He also alluded to a "future product transition" that will affect the company's fall quarter. He attributed that, along with this fall's launch of iCloud and other services, to more conservative than usual guidance for the next quarter.



    Is the "future product transition" referring to the iPhone5? This is the most logical interpretation of this statement, but here are some other options that could affect Apple's revenue/profits:

    - Significant drop in iPhone 3GS price to enable more prepaid customers

    - Introduction of iPad3 and a price drop ($100 across the board) for iPad2

    - AppleTV that is actually a TV (i.e. integrated into a large LCD TV) that comes with a year worth of streaming video rentals
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  • Reply 35 of 59
    strobestrobe Posts: 369member
    I don't understand why people think Apple should buy everything under the sun. Their focus is already split in too many directions, and their track record for buying companies is shit.



    They bought Nothing Real, for example. It had a wildly successful product called Shake. Apple seemed to lose interest and killed it.



    How man of these purchases actually added value to the company:



    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tions_by_Apple



    Meanwhile, they SOLD ARM shares just before it really took off. Now you want them to buy again?



    Apple may be a pretty good electronics company, but they're terrible investors.



    Apple does best when they focus on a few things which work really well together. If they're going to buy a company, it would be for their book value or capital in making Apple products. In other words higher order goods, not final goods. If they were to buy MRAM before it became the next big thing, for example.



    Another thing they could do is move more of their operations overseas before Sacramento attempts to tax them to death.
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  • Reply 36 of 59
    macsharkmacshark Posts: 229member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    I don't think we can expect to see a 'cheap' iPhone (except perhaps a TD-SCDMA China-only one) for as long as iPhone is growing 100%+ YoY. When we see iPhone YoY growth dipping to 80% that's when it will be imperative.



    Not sure, this is where Android phones are aggressively winning market share, Apple may want to respond before it is too late. Remember iPod shuffle?
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  • Reply 37 of 59
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macshark View Post


    Is the "future product transition" referring to the iPhone5? This is the most logical interpretation of this statement, but here are some other options that could affect Apple's revenue/profits:

    - Significant drop in iPhone 3GS price to enable more prepaid customers

    - Introduction of iPad3 and a price drop ($100 across the board) for iPad2

    - AppleTV that is actually a TV (i.e. integrated into a large LCD TV) that comes with a year worth of streaming video rentals



    I was thinking the same thing when I read that statement. I'm thinking he's eluding to a new possibly lower margin product being introduced in the September quarter.
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  • Reply 38 of 59
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,710member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Heheh - it's official - something is being updated in september



    Yeah. I was hoping August, as some rumors are now saying. But if it were out then, the numbers would be higher. I just can't believe that sales will be lower though. Even if phone sales drop, iPad sales will rise, as will Mac sales.
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  • Reply 39 of 59
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,418member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mac Voyer View Post


    At $76B, Apple has just about enough money to clone Steve Jobs. Imagine what they could make by selling Steve Jobs clones. First customer, RIM, quickly followed by HP and MS.



    I think they should wait until after they overtake XOM. Which should be fairly soon.
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  • Reply 40 of 59
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by macshark View Post


    Not sure, this is where Android phones are aggressively winning market share, Apple may want to respond before it is too late. Remember iPod shuffle?



    It's a little bit of a different situation because of the sheer size of the market. When Apple launched the shuffle and the nano the iPod classic market wasn't growing at anything like 100% YoY, the existing iPod market was still fairly small and the Shuffle didn't share components with the iPod significantly.



    There's no evidence that a user lost to Android is lost forever, in fact the experience with Verizon indicates quite the opposite.
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