UBS ups 2011 iPad estimate to 39.9M, 63% market share

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  • Reply 21 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by solipsism View Post


    1) I assume he means that is a warehouse full of unsold Android tablets.



    2) I think the screenshot is from Indiana Jones, where the Arc of the Covenent is stored, so it is Area 51.



    Indeed



    Tomorrow we get Moto's results I believe, so we may find out how many Xooms are out there sitting in warehouses.
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  • Reply 22 of 56
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.



    If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?



    It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.



    "Shipped" = into the channel

    "In circulation" = purchased by an end user and detected in use by Google



    These two are not equal, differing by the number of units stuck in inventory at retail distributors. So unless you have information on the type and number of units in inventory, your arithmetic above is almost useless.



    Update: Ah, now I see your assumption at the top. Very bad assumption, which renders your conclusion equally faulty.

    Thompson
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  • Reply 23 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post


    So unless you have information on the type and number of units in inventory, your arithmetic above is almost useless.



    Actually what it does is demonstrate two things, that 7inches aren't selling any better than 10inches because Android makers are rushing out 10inches, and 10inches are selling far more poorly than shipping numbers indicate.



    ie. sell through really is bad.
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  • Reply 24 of 56
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Actually what it does is demonstrate two things, that 7inches aren't selling any better than 10inches because Android makers are rushing out 10inches, and 10inches are selling far more poorly than shipping numbers indicate.



    ie. sell through really is bad.



    Exactly, but your original assumption in the previous post (first sentence) was that sell through was good, and your intermediate conclusion was that 7 inch units were selling well, leading to your perceived contradiction.



    Just by removing the sell through assumption, we remove the contradiction. The convoluted way that you approached the argument made me miss that you had come to the same conclusion by the back door.



    Thompson
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  • Reply 25 of 56
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android...... but really: it's not even close.



    Yep, you're right; this does seem to me like a media-/analyst-created horse race.
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  • Reply 26 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post


    Exactly, but your original assumption in the previous post (first sentence) was that sell through was good, and your intermediate conclusion was that 7 inch units were selling well, leading to your perceived contradiction.



    Just by removing the sell through assumption, we remove the contradiction. The convoluted way that you approached the argument made me miss that you had come to the same conclusion by the back door.



    Thompson



    It's a fairly standard logical tool - reductio ad absurdam. Assuming the shipment figures carry through to sales results in a fallacy and thus we can discount it.



    What I think is really interesing is the discrepancy between the browser based numbers and the google market based numbers, the only explanation I can think of is that g-tabs are all being sold in Korea and China - and have no penetration in the EU or US.
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  • Reply 27 of 56
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    It's a fairly standard logical tool - reductio ad absurdam.



    Indeed. In mathematics, also known as "proof by contradiction".



    But typically when one uses it, one states first what they intend to prove. Sometimes they even finish off with "quod erat demonstrandum" or QED. Also, when employing these more roundabout logical tools - another example in math is induction - one typically states outright that that's what they are up to, for the sake of clarity.



    You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.



    Thompson
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  • Reply 28 of 56
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    I still stand by my beginning of the year prediction of 40 million sold for 2011.
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  • Reply 29 of 56
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post


    Indeed. In mathematics, also known as "proof by contradiction".



    But typically when one uses it, one states first what they intend to prove. Sometimes they even finish off with "quod erat demonstrandum" or QED. Also, when employing these more roundabout logical tools - another example in math is induction - one typically states outright that that's what they are up to, for the sake of clarity.



    You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.



    Thompson



    Well said.
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  • Reply 30 of 56
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,503member
    Apple should and will hold 75 - 80% market in the Tablet space in 2011 and beyond.
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  • Reply 31 of 56
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    Yep, you're right; this does seem to me like a media-/analyst-created horse race.



    On your mark, get set, GO!!!!11!1!!11!







    vs.



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  • Reply 32 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post


    You did none of these things, leaving only the absurd result hanging there. In the subsequent post, you gave your QED.

    Thompson



    Yes, because in this particular instance I don't think it's strong enough to claim as a definite conclusion, though I think it's certainly the most plausible one. It's also possible that the Android tablet makers are all idiotically ignoring the 7inch category. It's possible that Honeycomb users don't use the android market, or browse the web - maybe they use their tablets just for watching pirated movies. Lots of things are possible.



    What is certain is that our current data doesn't fit together.



    For example if we estimate number of honeycomb tabs from the Android market data we have 1.3 million, but from the web browser data we would have 300k. That's without even getting into shipment numbers!
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  • Reply 33 of 56
    I know that this is a apple centric site but their is a lot of unnecessary hatred towards android. I recently saw a post on a website that cited the galaxy tab having about 800,000 units shipped the asks transformer is around a bit half million shipped and it however is sold out in most stores. The acer a500 is also a selling a lot of units. I know none of these tablets are close to the ipad's sells but it shows that more then a million half units sold. The tablet market is still fairly new to consumers most people see tablets as an overpriced media consumption device. The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.



    Plus android tablets are not bad I like my iconic tab. I love that I can go to some of my favorite websites on it. I crash early and I like to watch south park and the colbert report at work during my breaks.
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  • Reply 34 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post


    I know that this is a apple centric site but their is a lot of unnecessary hatred towards android. I recently saw a post on a website that cited the galaxy tab having about 800,000 units shipped the asks transformer is around a bit half million shipped and it however is sold out in most stores. The acer a500 is also a selling a lot of units. I know none of these tablets are close to the ipad's sells but it shows that more then a million half units sold. The tablet market is still fairly new to consumers most people see tablets as an overpriced media consumption device.



    This isn't hate, this is simple curiosity. I've seen far larger numbers than 800k reported for G-Tab shipments, but the web data suggests that g-tab is far less, more like 400k.



    Samsung reports results on the 29th, moto on the 28th, so we might get more accurate shipment numbers from them then, but we're still left puzzling with how those shipments translate into sales.



    Quote:

    The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.



    Yes that's the assumption, but the comscore data tells a different story. They looked at iPad ownership and normalized for current smartphone ownership to produce an index.



    http://www.comscoredatamine.com/2011...pad-in-europe/



    Turns out Samsung smartphone owners are as or more likely to own an iPad than iPhone owners.
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  • Reply 35 of 56
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Yes, because in this particular instance I don't think it's strong enough to claim as a definite conclusion, though I think it's certainly the most plausible one. It's also possible that the Android tablet makers are all idiotically ignoring the 7inch category. It's possible that Honeycomb users don't use the android market, or browse the web - maybe they use their tablets just for watching pirated movies. Lots of things are possible.



    What is certain is that our current data doesn't fit together.



    For example if we estimate number of honeycomb tabs from the Android market data we have 1.3 million, but from the web browser data we would have 300k. That's without even getting into shipment numbers!



    The bottom line to me is that your original post, taken on its own, was either a mess of confusion or a gallant, but unnecessary, quest for enlightenment. Two things should be fairly obvious to everyone by now, evidenced by retail distributor data and your own observations of the ten inch tablet invasion:



    (1) Android tablet sell-through - of any variety - is currently pathetic, and

    (2) Seven inch tablets are not desirable, for all the common sense reasons that Apple put forth many months ago.



    The only mystery to me is why you spent so much time musing over these obvious answers to your dilemma. Most of us already understood this.



    Thompson
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  • Reply 36 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post


    The bottom line to me is that your original post, taken on its own, was either a mess of confusion or a gallant, but unnecessary, quest for enlightenment. Two things should be fairly obvious to everyone by now, evidenced by retail distributor data and your own observations of the ten inch tablet invasion:



    (1) Android tablet sell-through - of any variety - is currently pathetic, and

    (2) Seven inch tablets are not desirable, for all the common sense reasons that Apple put forth many months ago.



    The only mystery to me is why you spent so much time musing over these obvious answers to your dilemma. Most of us already understood this.



    Thompson



    Because the 10inch invasion point isn't being made by any of the commentators or analysts. AI doesn't even bother reporting on most of the new 10inchers and sites that do haven't noticed the discrepancy. The oddest part to me is that I don't think a 7inch device is necessarily a bad idea. If Apple ever did make one I could see it being a nice device for commuting.



    The poor sell-through is generally assumed, and it's consistent with the data, but we still don't have a handle on just how poor it is - or what other factors are affecting android tablets market presence. I don't think we can yet exclude them being geographically limited, which would be bad for them but not as bad as them sitting in a warehouse. Any Asian readers care to comment? Are G-tabs huge in Seoul?



    Anyway I have no problem with gallant quests for enlightenment. Enlightenment is never unnecessary.
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  • Reply 37 of 56
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,521member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Because the 10inch invasion point isn't being made by any of the commentators or analysts. AI doesn't even bother reporting on most of the new 10inchers and sites that do haven't noticed the discrepancy. The oddest part to me is that I don't think a 7inch device is necessarily a bad idea. If Apple ever did make one I could see it being a nice device for commuting.



    The poor sell-through is generally assumed, and it's consistent with the data, but we still don't have a handle on just how poor it is - or what other factors are affecting android tablets market presence. I don't think we can yet exclude them being geographically limited, which would be bad for them but not as bad as them sitting in a warehouse. Any Asian readers care to comment? Are G-tabs huge in Seoul?



    Anyway I have no problem with gallant quests for enlightenment. Enlightenment is never unnecessary.



    A quest for enlightenment is good under any circumstances. But you are thrashing for answers when they are already available. (See last post.) Every quote we have from retail says Android tablet sell-through is bad.



    And regarding 7 inch... there is neither anecdotal nor academic reason for its existence. How many people do you know suffering through that? Sure, sure, give me something that barely fits in a pocket (if it does), has crappy battery life, and makes me pinch and zoom most of the time. At least if I have an iPhone, I can fit my pocket and have decent battery life. I'm OK with zooming in when I have too, but if I have an iPad, I get a big screen and awesome battery life. And my apps work both ways. Done deal. Why get a "tweener" 7 inch that affords me neither advantage?



    Thompson
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  • Reply 38 of 56
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,916member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple v. Samsung View Post




    The ipad is primary sold to apple faithful, as the rival tablets are sold to tech enthusiasts.




    I know about 10 people with iPads... and only one of them is a Mac user.



    And only a couple of them are iPhone users.



    My $0.02
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  • Reply 39 of 56
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    If there really are that many android tablets out there then the question has to be, what on earth are people using them for?



    http://www.netmarketshare.com/2011/0...-s-Competition



    Good point. To boot, where are they? In bookstores, Starbucks, subways and airports, all I see are laptops, iPads and some Kindles (and, increasingly, iPads are as visible as or even outnumber laptops).



    The only answer I can come up with is this: All Android tablets are used for porn apps. After all, one would not run these apps in the public places mentioned. In other words, Porndroids make up the 30%+ of the tablet market Apple apparently does not own. Either that, or Android tablet owners disguise their possession as iPads or books, out of embarrassment.



    As for tech enthusiasts preferring Android tablets, here is my take: I own, use and like both iPhones and Android phones. I also look back at the keyboard of my BB with a sense of "if only ...". So, I do consider myself quite the curious tech enthusiast who would spend more than necessary just for the fun of it. Yet, I have found zero reason to buy an Android tablet, despite having played with the tab quite a bit (although, to be fair, I had already purchased the iPad2 at that time).
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  • Reply 40 of 56
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Tomorrow we get Moto's results I believe, so we may find out how many Xooms are out there sitting in warehouses.



    No mention of the Xoom sales in the press release but they did good for a failing vendor using Android's anchor as a life preserver.
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