If we are going to ignore 'Sales', and instead substitute 'shipments' for products on tne market, maybe we should subtract 'returns' or 'remainded' or 'bargain basketed' from the shipped figure, to get a more accurate figure of kit that doesn't sell.
Anyone can produce junk and ship it. But if hardly anyone buys it, and ypy end up selling it at a loss, whay is the point?
Hundreds of thousands of Android devices gathering dust in a warehouse?
That article was already panned by BoyGeniusReports, who called it "Absolutely Ridiculous". Their sources have put the return rate in the low single digits.
One unsourced anecdotal evidence says one thing, one says the opposite. Remember too that BGR has a history of fabricating and embellishing stories themselves, so it's not like they are an authoritative source. For what it's worth I don't see evidence that the return is that high, but in truth we have no information one way or the other that's really reliable.
There's still a question of degree, and these results shed a little light on that. There's no doubt that Apple's share of sales is far greater than the 60% share of shipments, but is it 80%? is it 90%? more? We don't know and it's still worth seeing what data we can grub up to shed light on it.
The netmarketshare numbers would indicate Moto has about 50% sell-through, so if that is true across the board we'd be looking at 80% for iPad. But Moto's sell-through could be worse than that if netmarketshare is over-sampling US web-usage.
The interesting thing is that if the Xoom only sold 350k-ish units and only shipped 700k-ish, then is the 1.3% honeycomb number from Google an over-estimate? Maybe android tab owners visit the app market more often than phone owners.
As far as I know the Xoom was until recently the only honeycomb tablet in existence. In which case going forward we need to assume that numbers based on estimates from android market statistics are off by a factor of between two and four.
In relation to the Xoom if we assume that 440k shipped equates to sales the market share Apple has relative to the Xoom over the most recent quarter is a paltry 95.5%.
To lower Apple down to just 80% of the market would require the remaining Android based iPads to sell a combined: 1,911,500 tablets.
So how long can Motorola keep this up? The initial Android surge took them from money losing to (barely) profitable for a few quarters, but now they've returned to operating in the red.
I haven't seen anything about what their assets look like, but you have to assume that this kind of performance isn't exactly stocking the R&D war-chest.
So here we have Apple, with boat loads of cash to spend on aggressively refining and improving the iPad and iOS, against the likes of Motorola, who at best can iterate their case design, drop in current parts, and hope that Google makes Android into a more interesting tablet OS. Why would we expect them to do anything particularly competitive, next quarter or any quarter?
Tablets aren't phones. Most of them aren't sold (pushed) by carriers, most of them aren't subsidized, and no one wanders into BestBuy because their service contract on their tablet is up and they're ready to take whatever the sales guy is flogging. Apple is capable of spending the money it takes to really sweat the details, Motorola isn't. And consumers notice. The only way around that obstacle is to sell your stuff for significantly less, but Motorola doesn't really have that luxury either. And what happens if Android licenses keep getting more expensive due to litigation?
I see this as being LG and Sony-Ericsson's situation as well, for what it's worth. The only profitable mainstream players in Android land are Samsung and HTC, and it may not be too long before they're the only ones left standing-- well, them and the Chinese white box outfits that will be bringing the relentless price pressure.
Based on what I see going on at stores like Best Buy, the salespeople there tend to be Android fans and really push those phones. A common line I hear, "It's just like iPhone / iPad, just cheaper/better".
I'd bet money that they consumer takes it home after falling for that line, hate the Android experience and return it. But hey, Android is counted as an "Activation".
Exactly, let's factor in returns to the activation numbers.
In relation to the Xoom if we assume that 440k shipped equates to sales the market share Apple has relative to the Xoom over the most recent quarter is a paltry 95.5%.
To lower Apple down to just 80% of the market would require the remaining Android based iPads to sell a combined: 1,911,500 tablets.
Not happening.
Should have made it clear, I was talking about estimates for 2011 in total, since that's what this article was discussing.
IMO it would still be completely unreasonable and highly unlikely.
Look, not that I believe the article's completely unsourced and unattributed numbers but it does seem entirely possible for a bad product to hit 30% returns. Apparently it can go over 100%.
Sales of Logitech Revue were slightly negative during the quarter, as returns of the product were higher than the very modest sales. We believe the significantly lower everyday price for Logitech Revue, reduced from $249 to $99, will generate improved sales.
Original estimates for the Xoom hoped for sales of 3 to 5 million units in 2011, but so far the company has sold closer to a half million of the devices, depressing the prospects for other Honeycomb tablets and tablets in general outside of the iPad, and further reinforcing the reality that the iPad, like the iPod before it, exists as its own market with exclusive demand, rather than being part of a larger, generic "tablet" market.
It's been said over and over. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market.
Then add the past 3 quarters together. Now go back to Moto's prior 2 10-Qs and compare.
You'll find that this was Moto's best quarter for the Xoom.
Huh? It only launched last quarter! The other 10.1 inch tablets only launched this quarter. It's to be expected that no matter how bad their shipments are, more of them will happen in Q3 and Q4 than in Q1 or Q2, just because of the number of devices. That's without even bringing up the insane introductory price.
the comparison of the iPad with the iPod's market domination is more complex than just saying it has held 70% of the market for the last 8 years, and so will the iPad.
first, there is probably a whole lot of very cheap no-recognizable-brand PMP's out there in the second/third world whose sales just don't get picked up in these stats. like all those toy like gizmos in China. they work, sort of. and sell tens of millions.
and i think the same thing will eventually happen with tablets too in the next few years. they'll probably run some bastardized version of Android, legal or not. they won't be reflected in market stats either, which are mainly about products made by first world OEM's (including their worldwide sales). but there will be tens of millions of them too.
second, the iPod touch is really a tablet. forget the artificial iPod name, it's Apple's iOS mini-tablet, and accounts for half of iPod sales. that means the basic iPod Nano/Shuffle/Classic sales are just about 55% of the basic measured PMP market. and Apple iOS tablet sales were 12 million last quarter instead of 9.8 million, likely bumping its tablet market share to well above 90%.
that % has to slide downward gradually. while Apple and some OEM's keep pushing tablet tech ahead with state of the art products, a less advanced and less expensive version of basic tablets for the mass commodity market will emerge and sell in large numbers. eventually there will be $99 tablets, just like today's $25 PMP's. within 5 years i'm sure.
so at that point Apple's tablet market share measured by unit sales might be just 50% too. but measured by dollar volume, it will be much higher.
which is also what is happening with the iPhone by the way.
same old question: 440,000 Xoom shipped in last quarter, but how many really sold? did they say? or sold to date going back two quarters?
when they don't give you actual sales stats, you know they have to be crummy. when they are good, they boast about it.
The best estimates from unbiased sources and based on actual facts is that about 325,000 Xooms have been sold so far.
That means that about 73-75% of the channel actually sold so the next time Motorola comes out with figures, take 75% of that and you have the actual numbers.
Well said and to the point. At the end of the day, I believe poor customer experience matters and has impacts. That is my belief. Google has just be horrible at it. Exhibit A being Google TV. Exhibit B being the horrible Samsung 7" inch tablet they pushed onto the market as their first tablet market. Horrible
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox
So how long can Motorola keep this up? The initial Android surge took them from money losing to (barely) profitable for a few quarters, but now they've returned to operating in the red.
I haven't seen anything about what their assets look like, but you have to assume that this kind of performance isn't exactly stocking the R&D war-chest.
So here we have Apple, with boat loads of cash to spend on aggressively refining and improving the iPad and iOS, against the likes of Motorola, who at best can iterate their case design, drop in current parts, and hope that Google makes Android into a more interesting tablet OS. Why would we expect them to do anything particularly competitive, next quarter or any quarter?
Tablets aren't phones. Most of them aren't sold (pushed) by carriers, most of them aren't subsidized, and no one wanders into BestBuy because their service contract on their tablet is up and they're ready to take whatever the sales guy is flogging. Apple is capable of spending the money it takes to really sweat the details, Motorola isn't. And consumers notice. The only way around that obstacle is to sell your stuff for significantly less, but Motorola doesn't really have that luxury either. And what happens if Android licenses keep getting more expensive due to litigation?
I see this as being LG and Sony-Ericsson's situation as well, for what it's worth. The only profitable mainstream players in Android land are Samsung and HTC, and it may not be too long before they're the only ones left standing-- well, them and the Chinese white box outfits that will be bringing the relentless price pressure.
The best estimates from unbiased sources and based on actual facts is that about 325,000 Xooms have been sold so far.
That means that about 73-75% of the channel actually sold so the next time Motorola comes out with figures, take 75% of that and you have the actual numbers.
That would be about 50% then, if you mean 325k total not just last quarter - they've shipped a total of around 700k in both quarters combined.
Back in my retail sales days, they told us to "under-promise and over-deliver". In other words, make sure the product the customer buys exceeds their expectations. It appears that with the Xoom, Playbook, HP Whatchamacallit, they got it backwards: "It runs Flash!!" (poorly), "It's open!!" (to malware/viruses), "It's versatile!!" (though very few apps), etc.
Motorola stated that it shipped 440,000 tablets in the most recent quarter, ahead of analyst expectations of just 366,000 but far lower than the 9.41 million iPads Apple sold in its most recent quarter.
so, this is pretty funny, they got outsold by Asus.... who was restricted by amount they could make and didn't use any large scale ad campaign.
rofl, i wonder what it would take for Apple's iPod to drop to under 50% of marketshare-- People from the future stealing Apple's iPad 4 design, and finding a company that could make it without ruining it.... rofl.
I knew Android tablets would really take off - its essentially the same scenario as Linux based operating systems.
It actually reminds me of a very old computer joke (when I say old, I mean OS/2 old!)
Quote:
If Operating Systems were Airlines
Linux Express: Passengers bring a piece of the airplane and a box of tools with them to the airport. They gather on the tarmac, arguing about what kind of plane they want to build. The passengers split into groups and build several different aircraft but give them all the same name. Only some passengers reach their destinations, but _all_ of them believe they arrived.
Comments
If we are going to ignore 'Sales', and instead substitute 'shipments' for products on tne market, maybe we should subtract 'returns' or 'remainded' or 'bargain basketed' from the shipped figure, to get a more accurate figure of kit that doesn't sell.
Anyone can produce junk and ship it. But if hardly anyone buys it, and ypy end up selling it at a loss, whay is the point?
Hundreds of thousands of Android devices gathering dust in a warehouse?
Can't sell them even at a loss?
One word: Arson.
Anyone can produce junk and ship it. But if hardly anyone buys it, and ypy end up selling it at a loss, whay is the point?
Yes but about 50% of the handsets made globally are by loss making firms, so we kinda have to count them
That article was already panned by BoyGeniusReports, who called it "Absolutely Ridiculous". Their sources have put the return rate in the low single digits.
http://www.bgr.com/2011/07/28/40-of-...ly-ridiculous/
Yeah, but this is meaningless also.
One unsourced anecdotal evidence says one thing, one says the opposite. Remember too that BGR has a history of fabricating and embellishing stories themselves, so it's not like they are an authoritative source. For what it's worth I don't see evidence that the return is that high, but in truth we have no information one way or the other that's really reliable.
There's still a question of degree, and these results shed a little light on that. There's no doubt that Apple's share of sales is far greater than the 60% share of shipments, but is it 80%? is it 90%? more? We don't know and it's still worth seeing what data we can grub up to shed light on it.
The netmarketshare numbers would indicate Moto has about 50% sell-through, so if that is true across the board we'd be looking at 80% for iPad. But Moto's sell-through could be worse than that if netmarketshare is over-sampling US web-usage.
The interesting thing is that if the Xoom only sold 350k-ish units and only shipped 700k-ish, then is the 1.3% honeycomb number from Google an over-estimate? Maybe android tab owners visit the app market more often than phone owners.
As far as I know the Xoom was until recently the only honeycomb tablet in existence. In which case going forward we need to assume that numbers based on estimates from android market statistics are off by a factor of between two and four.
In relation to the Xoom if we assume that 440k shipped equates to sales the market share Apple has relative to the Xoom over the most recent quarter is a paltry 95.5%.
To lower Apple down to just 80% of the market would require the remaining Android based iPads to sell a combined: 1,911,500 tablets.
Not happening.
I haven't seen anything about what their assets look like, but you have to assume that this kind of performance isn't exactly stocking the R&D war-chest.
So here we have Apple, with boat loads of cash to spend on aggressively refining and improving the iPad and iOS, against the likes of Motorola, who at best can iterate their case design, drop in current parts, and hope that Google makes Android into a more interesting tablet OS. Why would we expect them to do anything particularly competitive, next quarter or any quarter?
Tablets aren't phones. Most of them aren't sold (pushed) by carriers, most of them aren't subsidized, and no one wanders into BestBuy because their service contract on their tablet is up and they're ready to take whatever the sales guy is flogging. Apple is capable of spending the money it takes to really sweat the details, Motorola isn't. And consumers notice. The only way around that obstacle is to sell your stuff for significantly less, but Motorola doesn't really have that luxury either. And what happens if Android licenses keep getting more expensive due to litigation?
I see this as being LG and Sony-Ericsson's situation as well, for what it's worth. The only profitable mainstream players in Android land are Samsung and HTC, and it may not be too long before they're the only ones left standing-- well, them and the Chinese white box outfits that will be bringing the relentless price pressure.
Based on what I see going on at stores like Best Buy, the salespeople there tend to be Android fans and really push those phones. A common line I hear, "It's just like iPhone / iPad, just cheaper/better".
I'd bet money that they consumer takes it home after falling for that line, hate the Android experience and return it. But hey, Android is counted as an "Activation".
Exactly, let's factor in returns to the activation numbers.
In relation to the Xoom if we assume that 440k shipped equates to sales the market share Apple has relative to the Xoom over the most recent quarter is a paltry 95.5%.
To lower Apple down to just 80% of the market would require the remaining Android based iPads to sell a combined: 1,911,500 tablets.
Not happening.
Should have made it clear, I was talking about estimates for 2011 in total, since that's what this article was discussing.
IMO it would still be completely unreasonable and highly unlikely.
Look, not that I believe the article's completely unsourced and unattributed numbers but it does seem entirely possible for a bad product to hit 30% returns. Apparently it can go over 100%.
Sales of Logitech Revue were slightly negative during the quarter, as returns of the product were higher than the very modest sales. We believe the significantly lower everyday price for Logitech Revue, reduced from $249 to $99, will generate improved sales.
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External...F8VHlwZT0z&t=1
Should have made it clear, I was talking about estimates for 2011 in total, since that's what this article was discussing.
Then add the past 3 quarters together. Now go back to Moto's prior 2 10-Qs and compare.
You'll find that this was Moto's best quarter for the Xoom.
Original estimates for the Xoom hoped for sales of 3 to 5 million units in 2011, but so far the company has sold closer to a half million of the devices, depressing the prospects for other Honeycomb tablets and tablets in general outside of the iPad, and further reinforcing the reality that the iPad, like the iPod before it, exists as its own market with exclusive demand, rather than being part of a larger, generic "tablet" market.
It's been said over and over. It's not a tablet market, it's an iPad market.
Then add the past 3 quarters together. Now go back to Moto's prior 2 10-Qs and compare.
You'll find that this was Moto's best quarter for the Xoom.
Huh? It only launched last quarter! The other 10.1 inch tablets only launched this quarter. It's to be expected that no matter how bad their shipments are, more of them will happen in Q3 and Q4 than in Q1 or Q2, just because of the number of devices. That's without even bringing up the insane introductory price.
first, there is probably a whole lot of very cheap no-recognizable-brand PMP's out there in the second/third world whose sales just don't get picked up in these stats. like all those toy like gizmos in China. they work, sort of. and sell tens of millions.
and i think the same thing will eventually happen with tablets too in the next few years. they'll probably run some bastardized version of Android, legal or not. they won't be reflected in market stats either, which are mainly about products made by first world OEM's (including their worldwide sales). but there will be tens of millions of them too.
second, the iPod touch is really a tablet. forget the artificial iPod name, it's Apple's iOS mini-tablet, and accounts for half of iPod sales. that means the basic iPod Nano/Shuffle/Classic sales are just about 55% of the basic measured PMP market. and Apple iOS tablet sales were 12 million last quarter instead of 9.8 million, likely bumping its tablet market share to well above 90%.
that % has to slide downward gradually. while Apple and some OEM's keep pushing tablet tech ahead with state of the art products, a less advanced and less expensive version of basic tablets for the mass commodity market will emerge and sell in large numbers. eventually there will be $99 tablets, just like today's $25 PMP's. within 5 years i'm sure.
so at that point Apple's tablet market share measured by unit sales might be just 50% too. but measured by dollar volume, it will be much higher.
which is also what is happening with the iPhone by the way.
DED is back!
same old question: 440,000 Xoom shipped in last quarter, but how many really sold? did they say? or sold to date going back two quarters?
when they don't give you actual sales stats, you know they have to be crummy. when they are good, they boast about it.
The best estimates from unbiased sources and based on actual facts is that about 325,000 Xooms have been sold so far.
That means that about 73-75% of the channel actually sold so the next time Motorola comes out with figures, take 75% of that and you have the actual numbers.
So how long can Motorola keep this up? The initial Android surge took them from money losing to (barely) profitable for a few quarters, but now they've returned to operating in the red.
I haven't seen anything about what their assets look like, but you have to assume that this kind of performance isn't exactly stocking the R&D war-chest.
So here we have Apple, with boat loads of cash to spend on aggressively refining and improving the iPad and iOS, against the likes of Motorola, who at best can iterate their case design, drop in current parts, and hope that Google makes Android into a more interesting tablet OS. Why would we expect them to do anything particularly competitive, next quarter or any quarter?
Tablets aren't phones. Most of them aren't sold (pushed) by carriers, most of them aren't subsidized, and no one wanders into BestBuy because their service contract on their tablet is up and they're ready to take whatever the sales guy is flogging. Apple is capable of spending the money it takes to really sweat the details, Motorola isn't. And consumers notice. The only way around that obstacle is to sell your stuff for significantly less, but Motorola doesn't really have that luxury either. And what happens if Android licenses keep getting more expensive due to litigation?
I see this as being LG and Sony-Ericsson's situation as well, for what it's worth. The only profitable mainstream players in Android land are Samsung and HTC, and it may not be too long before they're the only ones left standing-- well, them and the Chinese white box outfits that will be bringing the relentless price pressure.
The best estimates from unbiased sources and based on actual facts is that about 325,000 Xooms have been sold so far.
That means that about 73-75% of the channel actually sold so the next time Motorola comes out with figures, take 75% of that and you have the actual numbers.
That would be about 50% then, if you mean 325k total not just last quarter - they've shipped a total of around 700k in both quarters combined.
And then the reviews come out...
Given that Moto 'Expanded distribution of the ATRIX™ 4G smartphone and Motorola XOOM
tablets into Latin America, China, Korea, and Europe' we have to assume that a big chunk of that 440k units are channel inventory.
All I need to know is whether it was "smooth" or not. Actual sell thru is irrelevant!
As I said before, it should be plain illegal to not report sell thru. "Shipped". What bollocks.
The shareholders are the ones getting screwed on this. They might not have a clear idea how horrible these "iPad killers" all are.
Motorola stated that it shipped 440,000 tablets in the most recent quarter, ahead of analyst expectations of just 366,000 but far lower than the 9.41 million iPads Apple sold in its most recent quarter.
so, this is pretty funny, they got outsold by Asus.... who was restricted by amount they could make and didn't use any large scale ad campaign.
rofl, i wonder what it would take for Apple's iPod to drop to under 50% of marketshare-- People from the future stealing Apple's iPad 4 design, and finding a company that could make it without ruining it.... rofl.
ah Motorola....
It actually reminds me of a very old computer joke (when I say old, I mean OS/2 old!)
If Operating Systems were Airlines
Linux Express: Passengers bring a piece of the airplane and a box of tools with them to the airport. They gather on the tarmac, arguing about what kind of plane they want to build. The passengers split into groups and build several different aircraft but give them all the same name. Only some passengers reach their destinations, but _all_ of them believe they arrived.