74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model
A significant number of Verizon customers are waiting for Apple's fifth-generation iPhone, rather than buying the currently available iPhone 4, a new survey has found.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray polled a small sample of 216 mobile phone users about their phones and carriers. He found that the results showed encouraging news for Apple and the iPhone.
In particular, his sampling found that many Verizon customers are waiting for the iPhone 5, as the iPhone 4 only went on sale to Verizon customers in February, a full 8 months after the handset was first sold to AT&T customers.
Of Verizon subscribers who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 74 percent are specifically waiting for Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5." For comparison, just 53 percent of AT&T customers who plan to buy an iPhone said they are waiting for the fifth-generation model.
"This pent up demand for the next iPhone at Verizon may drive numbers higher than the 3.8 (million) units we are modeling Apple to sell through Verizon in the Sept. quarter," Munster wrote. "And our overall iPhone unit estimate of 22.0m in the Sept. quarter may prove to be conservative."
In the last quarter, AT&T activated 1.3 million more iPhones than rival Verizon. AT&T remains the only U.S. carrier where customers can buy the entry-level iPhone 3GS, which is sold for $49 with a new two-year service contract.
The numbers also show a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers, with 94 percent of current iPhone customers indicating they expect to buy another Apple handset. Among Android users, only 47 percent expect to buy another Android device, while nearly as many -- 42 percent -- said they will switch to an iPhone.
In addition, the survey also found that among Verizon subscribers that do not already have an iPhone, 55 percent expect their next handset to be made by Apple. Based on this, Munster believes that iPhone share of the smartphone market is poised to grow dramatically.
"Of those surveyed, 29% already have iPhones and 64% expect their next phone to be an iPhone, 17% have an Android device and 17% also indicated their next phone to be an Android," he wrote.
Piper Jaffray's survey of 216 mobile phone users came from respondents found during workdays in downtown Minneapolis. The poll was conducted over the course of a week in a variety of public places, including on the street, in food courts, and near the entrance of a baseball stadium on game day.
Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray polled a small sample of 216 mobile phone users about their phones and carriers. He found that the results showed encouraging news for Apple and the iPhone.
In particular, his sampling found that many Verizon customers are waiting for the iPhone 5, as the iPhone 4 only went on sale to Verizon customers in February, a full 8 months after the handset was first sold to AT&T customers.
Of Verizon subscribers who do not have an iPhone but plan to buy an iPhone next, 74 percent are specifically waiting for Apple's anticipated "iPhone 5." For comparison, just 53 percent of AT&T customers who plan to buy an iPhone said they are waiting for the fifth-generation model.
"This pent up demand for the next iPhone at Verizon may drive numbers higher than the 3.8 (million) units we are modeling Apple to sell through Verizon in the Sept. quarter," Munster wrote. "And our overall iPhone unit estimate of 22.0m in the Sept. quarter may prove to be conservative."
In the last quarter, AT&T activated 1.3 million more iPhones than rival Verizon. AT&T remains the only U.S. carrier where customers can buy the entry-level iPhone 3GS, which is sold for $49 with a new two-year service contract.
The numbers also show a near-perfect retention rate among iPhone customers, with 94 percent of current iPhone customers indicating they expect to buy another Apple handset. Among Android users, only 47 percent expect to buy another Android device, while nearly as many -- 42 percent -- said they will switch to an iPhone.
In addition, the survey also found that among Verizon subscribers that do not already have an iPhone, 55 percent expect their next handset to be made by Apple. Based on this, Munster believes that iPhone share of the smartphone market is poised to grow dramatically.
"Of those surveyed, 29% already have iPhones and 64% expect their next phone to be an iPhone, 17% have an Android device and 17% also indicated their next phone to be an Android," he wrote.
Piper Jaffray's survey of 216 mobile phone users came from respondents found during workdays in downtown Minneapolis. The poll was conducted over the course of a week in a variety of public places, including on the street, in food courts, and near the entrance of a baseball stadium on game day.
Comments
Since the rumors seem to be point to the fact that the new iPhone will not be 4G, I will probably wait and get a new Android phone. ( I live in a good 4G city with Verizon ). I would like to get an iPhone, but it is still missing a few key features that I use regularly. I love the Chome to phone app on android, I love to highlight text or a link in a browser and send it to my phone so I can paste it into an application like Notes. It is very handy for phone numbers, addresses, etc.... I also like to being able to download driver & firmware files to my phone and transfer them to a customer's computer via USB. In my opinion not being able to download non-standard files and mount the phone as a USB drive is the biggest limitation of the iPhone in my work. Also the voice navigation and voice commands in Android are hard to beat...
The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.
This makes sense. Everyone thought that there would be a new model in June so many delayed their purchase, when that did not happen most decide to wait for the new phone since they had already waited this long....
Since the rumors seem to be point to the fact that the new iPhone will not be 4G, I will probably wait and get a new Android phone. ( I live in a good 4G city with Verizon ). I would like to get an iPhone, but it is still missing a few key features that I use regularly. I love the Chome to phone app on android, I love to highlight text or a link in a browser and send it to my phone so I can paste it into an application like Notes. It is very handy for phone numbers, addresses, etc.... I also like to being able to download driver & firmware files to my phone and transfer them to a customer's computer via USB. In my opinion not being able to download non-standard files and mount the phone as a USB drive is the biggest limitation of the iPhone in my work. Also the voice navigation and voice commands in Android are hard to beat...
Everyone has such a hard on for 4g. Every 4g user I know says the battery life is just awful right now. Coupled with the extra charges for 4g, just don't get why people care at this point. Give me solid and universal 3g speed (which we don't have especially on AT&T) over an immature 4g any day.
In any case, you sound like an Android user or should be one.
I just did a small survey myself to see how the results match up. I find that 50% of those surveyed don't expect to get a smartphone at all, while another 50% plan to get a Galaxy II when it becomes available. None of those surveyed planned to get an iPhone.
The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.
Sample size: n=2
Sampling technique: Convenience
Completion rate: 100%
Data reduction and analysis: Priceless
74% of Verizon iPhone buyers are waiting for Apple's next model
A significant number of Verizon customers ...
I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"
When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
$$$$$
From the pie charts it looks like the iPhone is eating up Blackberry buyers not Anroid buyers. 17% had an Android in the survey and 17% said they were getting another Android, so they're pretty much going to stay loyal with Android.
Somebody's gotta hate Apple, and what else are they going to buy? The Palm Treo?
I'm not American, but to me that title reads that 74% of current iPhone buyers (read owners) are awaiting the new model. But the article states that it is a "significant number of Verizon customers"
When looking at the title I was pretty amazed that 74% of Verizon iPhone owners would renew their phone that quickly, but apparently I misread it. Anyone else as well?
One problem that arises in these 'studies' is the use of the term significance. Tests of statistical significance and effect size almost always involve the selection of a p value (e.g, p=0.5). Without this level of data analysis, the use of the term 'significant results' often misleads the public into beliving the study results are important.
The question often asked in data analysis is "How important are these results"? In this case, not so much.
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
Million's would be ridiculous, a few thousand if demographically representative would be great though. Not only is the sample size here small, it's clearly not representative of the current US handset market, maybe it's representative of Manhattan.
Does it tell us anything? The 94% intention of iPhone users to remain on the platform seems relevant.
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).
I just did a small survey myself to see how the results match up. I find that 50% of those surveyed don't expect to get a smartphone at all, while another 50% plan to get a Galaxy II when it becomes available. None of those surveyed planned to get an iPhone.
The survey was done in different areas of Central Florida, with one of the two respondents working in the office and the other a customer in the company's parking lot.
Don't scoff.
A sample size of 216 produces a sampling error of plus-or-minus 6.7% (at a 95% confidence level). Thus, for the question he's asking, that's a pretty good sample size, and provides a basis for a reasonably sensible inference (i.e., two-thirds to four-fifths, with 95% confidence, are waiting for the next model).
Why can't these people poll millions? A couple hundred isn't anything.
You have a valid point. Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. This is a function of measures of central tendencey, specifically standard deviation (SD). However, data collection, reduction, and analysis times increase with the number of study participants. Cost then becomes a factor.
When reporting the results of studies such as this, it's best to stick to descriptive statistics in the reporting. Attempting to generalize the results to a larger population (inferential statistics) would be inappropriate (threats to external validity). This is especially true with small and/or non-representative samples, sampling techinques, and the associated Type VI error.
200 can be a sufficient sample size. What is more important is finding a sample that is representative of the population. That determines teh quality of a poll, and not the 200 number (of course, the more the better, but my point is that you don't need millions...a couple of hundred, can be enough).
Believe it or not, you only need a sample size greater than 30 for it to be an accurate representation of the population. Of course, that's assuming that you chose your sample randomly (meaning the surveyor didn't find out what kind of phone people had before he decided if he would include them in the survey).
Believe it or not, you only need a sample size greater than 30 for it to be an accurate representation of the population. Of course, that's assuming that you chose your sample randomly (meaning the surveyor didn't find out what kind of phone people had before he decided if he would include them in the survey).
Well in this case we know that the sample isn't representative, given all the other larger surveys showing dumbphones are still at 40%+ of the total subscriber population.
Don't scoff.
A sample size of 216 produces a sampling error of plus-or-minus 6.7% (at a 95% confidence level). Thus, for the question he's asking, that's a pretty good sample size, and provides a basis for a reasonably sensible inference (i.e., two-thirds to four-fifths, with 95% confidence, are waiting for the next model).
Since we don't even know what the question was I don't see how any inference can be made as to the accuracy of the results. Did he/they see an Android phone and ask if the user was getting another? Did they only ask those they saw using smartphones? What was the exact question(s) asked? Are you gonna buy that POS again" might get a different response from "Do you regret your iPhone or Android purchase."
After all, Piper-Jaffray does have a vested interest in having Apple stock get as many positives as possible, thus the question itself could well have been a leading one to begin with. Reminds me of the old courtroom joke. "Do you still beat your wife? A simple yes or no will do."
I'm pretty certain I could survey another 216 people and come up with whatever results I'd like to see.