Amazon ramps up Kindle Fire production to 5 million units in 2011

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Forgetting the iPad v the rest discussion for the moment, this is simply accelerating the end of the Windows PC. Many, many folks in this buying category (i.e. low cost) won't bother buying a replacement PC like they normally do because theirs is f***d up and the cost of repair is more than a new one (the main reason people buy PCs). The Tablet revolution is unstoppable and as with the computer market, Apple will have 80% of the high end tablet market and most of the profits and others will share the low end and earn scraps or make losses. I stress I said Winblows PCs era, Macs will continue to sell in ever increasing numbers.



    Really?



    Do you believe a device like the Fire is robust enough to replace a computer in the home?



    The Fire has WiFi and USB to interface the world-- no cameras, no expandable SSD storage, no BT...



    AFAICT, there is no way to print anything or cross-load any pictures, music documents...



    So the Fire household will consist of a WiFi router and one or more Fire tablets -- that's it?
  • Reply 22 of 88
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by uplate View Post


    I think this will be the common case.

    Scary when you think that apple makes a profit on each iPad and then profits on apps/music/video/book/magazines. Amazon will lose on each unit then hopes to make it up on content. The break even point in content purchases is probably close to the price of the Fire.





    Don't forget that the device will be a portal to everything Amazon has for sale. And all of it is available to couch potatoes with patented "One Click" purchasing.



    I think that this will be a home run of Amazon. Their eBook selection dwarfs iBooks. Their streaming selections are (at least) very competitive. Music, movies, TV series, they have it all.



    And the one-click couch potato purchasing decisions will be easy as pie.
  • Reply 23 of 88
    straskstrask Posts: 107member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Other than the fact that your math is wrong.



    The survey (even if you believe it) says that 26% of early adopters who have bought a Fire or plan to buy one soon will delay or cancel their purchase of an iPad. There are a lot of problems getting from that to your "for every 4 Fires sold, Apple loses an iPad sale" conclusion:




    The actual wording was "delay or put on hold." There was not an option for canceling. I wouldn't call this survey misleading but I would say that it is in and of itself not a great statistical indicator. Once you begin to delve this deeply into the sub-groups of a survey, the margin of error grows exponentially. 26% of 5% of 2600 people is a very small sample size. Throw in the confusing nature of the question, which PC Magazine seems to think implies that an iPad purchase is inevitable, and you have not much to go on. The survey found 130 people who had pre-ordered or planned to pre-order a Fire. I am not a statistician but I think the margin of error is fairly high in a group this small.



    That said, the questionnaire ha had it's intended effect - it has stoked interest in the Fire and built up media coverage. But, since the Fire is one of those devices that creates inevitable puns, it can't be sold at fire sale prices forever without burning down the factory. Amazon was clearly caught off guard by demand and should have made it extremely clear that this was a limited introductory price. Walmart only offers just so many $49 microwaves. People line up, stampede to the aisle and then buy something else if the sale item is gone.



    As an Apple shareholder, of course it is troubling to see a report like this, even more troubling to see the expected 5 million sales figure. But I think that the net effect will actually be minimal on iPad sales and the price point, the main attraction here, can't hold, so as a long term threat this is not really an issue for the iPad, in my opinion.
  • Reply 24 of 88
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,255member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post


    Don't forget that the device will be a portal to everything Amazon has for sale. And all of it is available to couch potatoes with patented "One Click" purchasing.



    Oh, I get it! Amazon is selling a $200 point-of-sale terminal.
  • Reply 25 of 88
    freerangefreerange Posts: 1,589member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by saarek View Post


    I have to admit to being tempted by the Kindle Fire myself.



    I love my iPad but mostly use it for music, books/newspapers and the odd game of Angry Birds, rather than getting an iPad 3 next year I might trade down to one of these.



    Will wait for actual reviews of the device first.



    What? You must be kidding. Even your old iPad is better than than the Fire. More content and apps, bigger screen, better build quality, and will do more than the fire, including movies, music, iTunes U, integration with all your other Apple devices. Your comment makes no sense whatsoever.
  • Reply 26 of 88
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,255member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by FreeRange View Post


    What? You must be kidding. Even your old iPad is better than than the Fire. More content and apps, bigger screen, better build quality, and will do more than the fire, including movies, music, iTunes U, integration with all your other Apple devices. Your comment makes no sense whatsoever.



    There's no questioning the logic of Spock's father. That said, I'm eagerly awaiting the iPad 3.
  • Reply 27 of 88
    straskstrask Posts: 107member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post


    Ummm.....no.





    26% of the people who either bought a Fire or who are going to buy one had previously planned to buy an iPad, but will instead delay their purchase of an iPad. J-Rag doesn't get it, but I think it is clear enough for most normal people to understand.



    26% of the 5,000,000 Fires to be sold means that somewhere around one or one and a half million fewer iPads will be sold in the near term.





    This stuff is not so hard to figure out. It may, however, be hard for some to deal with it.



    The130 people of whom 26% said they might delay or put on hold the purchase of an iPad had either purchased a Fire or were very likely to. Going to and very likely to are not the same things. Close, but if we are calling folks out on semantics, let's be accurate.



    I am more interested, now that there are some real sales racking up for the Fire where those numbers are coming from. I would think that as the numbers go up, there will be more cannibalizing of other Kindles and of other 7 inch tablets and e-readers.
  • Reply 28 of 88
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,303member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Really?



    Do you believe a device like the Fire is robust enough to replace a computer in the home?



    The Fire has WiFi and USB to interface the world-- no cameras, no expandable SSD storage, no BT...



    AFAICT, there is no way to print anything or cross-load any pictures, music documents...



    So the Fire household will consist of a WiFi router and one or more Fire tablets -- that's it?



    Read again what i said slowly. Stop being so centric minded. Of course they won't replace computers for me or you (in the near term) but have you any idea how little many PC users know about how to use their PCs? Any gadget that gives minimal functions would be better for many of them. Many of the tablets out their will suffice for large numbers of people that can't find a file they have saved or even know how to save. This is the start, soon printing from tablets will be common place. Try to have a little forward thinking imagination
  • Reply 29 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    For those considering the Fire...



    1) What are the top 3 reasons/attractions?



    2) How does this compare with the new Nook Tablet?



    1- Form factor.

    I`ve been waiting for a 7 inch tablet as an iPad is simply to bulky for my needs.

    2- Amazon ecosystem.

    Amazon Prime, Borrowing Library, and fantastic customer service

    3- Price is unbeatable



    I`m unfamiliar with the Nook but B&N aren`t doing so hot, have no faith they`ll be around and they can`t compete with Amazons ecosystem
  • Reply 30 of 88
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rob55 View Post


    Oh, I get it! Amazon is selling a $200 point-of-sale terminal.



    Bingo.
  • Reply 31 of 88
    Kindle fire looks like a great product sold at the wrong price. Amazon could easily charge $300 for it and I bet it would still sell. As it is, they are shooting themselves in the foot.



    This won't last long, I predict a price increase next year after they sell a zillion Fires for Xmas and then realize they've tanked themselves.
  • Reply 32 of 88
    conradjoeconradjoe Posts: 1,887member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by strask View Post




    I am more interested, now that there are some real sales racking up for the Fire where those numbers are coming from. I would think that as the numbers go up, there will be more cannibalizing of other Kindles and of other 7 inch tablets and e-readers.






    Likely you are correct. 74% of the FireBuyers had no plans to buy an iPad.



    Likely some of them were potential customers of the other tablets you mentioned.
  • Reply 33 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Read again what i said slowly. Stop being so centric minded. Of course they won't replace computers for me or you (in the near term) but have you any idea how little many PC users know about how to use their PCs? Any gadget that gives minimal functions would be better for many of them. Many of the tablets out their will suffice for large numbers of people that can't find a file they have saved or even know how to save. This is the start, soon printing from tablets will be common place. Try to have a little forward thinking imagination



    I fully agree with the longer term prospects of the past-pc tablets -- we have 6 iPads in our household -- one for each family member plus 1.



    We already enjoy wireless streaming of content, printing, TV playing, content purchase, software updates... and all that.



    Today, a few iPads, iCloud, a WiFi router, a printer and AppleTV could fulfill the needs of many of the homes you described... with no computer on site.



    I just disagree that the Fire is robust enough to meet these same needs.



    Again, today, do you believe that a few Fires and a WiFi router is enough?
  • Reply 34 of 88
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Other than the fact that your math is wrong.

    ...



    My assumptions may be wrong, my math never is.



    Quote:

    1. Apple is selling them as fast as they can make them. Even if someone else doesn't buy, Apple won't lose a sale - someone else is waiting in line.



    I thought of this as well and it is hard to deny it. Hypothetically, the availability of an alternative more desirable product will decrease the demand on iPads to a degree where Apple can make them fatser than sell them.



    Quote:

    2. There's absolutely no reason to believe that all of the people who were considering an iPad would actually have bought one.

    3. In fact, these are alleged 'early adopters'. We're now 2 years into the iPad era. 'Early adopters' who don't have an iPad are either lying about being early adopters or have something against Apple - and wouldn't have bought an iPad, anyway.



    In the eye of the general public, Amazon has produced several Kindles before, and Android-based tablets are nothing new. The expected 5 million are not "early adopters", they are regular customers.



    Quote:

    4. The number of people who allegedly delayed their iPad purchase is about 1% of the total sample - well within the margin of error. There's no way to extrapolate such a small number.



    You have no estimate of the error in this study.



    Quote:

    That said, I expect the Fire to sell well. It's a cheaper alternative ($200 vs $500-800) and it wouldn't be surprising to see lots of people buy them. I just don't think that very many people will buy them instead of an iPad. In addition to, maybe.



    The market is constantly growing. The question is what part of the growth will be due to the iPad and what to the newcomers.
  • Reply 35 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post


    Amazon is going to lose $300MM this quarter. The holiday shopping season. Apple will earn $10 billion.



    Amazon is winning



    LOL... makes so much sense now.
  • Reply 36 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


    Really?



    Do you believe a device like the Fire is robust enough to replace a computer in the home?



    The Fire has WiFi and USB to interface the world-- no cameras, no expandable SSD storage, no BT...



    AFAICT, there is no way to print anything or cross-load any pictures, music documents...



    So the Fire household will consist of a WiFi router and one or more Fire tablets -- that's it?



    Good points. I think there will be some families with ONE spare $200 who will spend it on the Fire in a blind cheap hope that it will 'do' for their household. Like someone else pointed out, their PC is, ah, slow. They aren't using it much anyway. They hope they can surf the net a little bit on the new thing.



    What I'm afraid of is they will hate it so much for it's limitations that they may not even look much further at the iPad. I hope they dont come to view it as an 'overpriced' version of the fire !



    It's sad to see so many young families literally falling behind because their PC won't work anymore. They've fixed it twice, there's no more money for that, so they get on and just do the barest minimum, kids homework, one email, and it takes them a long time just to do that much. Whole families of people falling right out of tech because Microsoft can't get their act together and fix the virus problem. Young kids who don't even know much about digital technology because their home pC doesn't work.



    I know this because we have two kids with families like this. We bought each of them an iPad.
  • Reply 37 of 88
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,603member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ConradJoe View Post


    Likely you are correct. 74% of the FireBuyers had no plans to buy an iPad.



    Likely some of them were potential customers of the other tablets you mentioned.



    No doubt the Fire will have a ripple effect. iPad sales may be impacted, but then again over a longer time frame the impact may be positive.



    I think the tablet manufacturers that can't back up with extensive content will be the ones most badly affected. Nobody can compete against a loss leader unless they have something else to sell.



    As tablets become more common as PC replacements the iPad will be more attractive to more people. People opting for the Fire (or similar) in this context will discover what millions of netbook customers discovered... you get what you pay for.
  • Reply 38 of 88
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,255member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by palomine View Post


    ...What I'm afraid of is they will hate it so much for it's limitations that they may not even look much further at the iPad. I hope they dont come to view it as an 'overpriced' version of the fire !



    I don't think you really need to worry about that. The iPad has been out for almost 2 years and it's got a fantastic rep. I think, if they end up hating their Fires, they'll quickly realize that they got what they paid for and have the answer to, "how can Amazon sell it for so little?"
  • Reply 39 of 88
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Springer9999 View Post


    The touchscreen is not gorilla glass - Amazon claims it is a durable new technology. It's okay as an e-reader I guess but I'll stick with an iPad.



    I've had an iPad since May 2010 and it's worked perfectly every day. My brother got a kindle in Feb 2010 and cracked his screen 5 months later. He's not even sure how it happened.



    Wrong! The Kindle Fire does use gorilla glass for the touchscreen.



    Don't confuse the Kindle Fire with Amazon's Kindle e-reader devices. They're completely different products. The Kindle Fire is their "tablet" whereas the other Kindle devices have e-ink screens and are designed almost exclusively for "reading."
  • Reply 40 of 88
    I'm sure this is taking away some sales from Apple in the near term.



    The effect in the longer term is much less certain.



    The key for Amazon is obviously making enough money off of digital content to cover their losses on the hardware. But so far as I can tell, Amazon makes no more money off of digital content than Apple does (in terms of margins), and Apple has always said that they run their digital stores as break-even operations. Maybe Apple isn't being entirely honest about that, but still -- I doubt Apple is making much profit on digital content. So how will Amazon make better margins selling at the same prices as Apple, especially when Amazon has smaller volume on music and apps?
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