UBS now sees Apple selling record 30 million iPhones in Dec. quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Investment bank UBS now believes Apple will sell as many as 30 million iPhones in the December quarter, up from a previous estimate of 28 million.



UBS analyst Maynard Um joined a chorus of analysts in raising iPhone estimates this week on the apparent strength of sustained demand for Apple's handset. The firm bumped its projections in part because of AT&T's announcement that it expects its best smartphone quarter ever, largely due to sales of the iPhone 4S.



As for iPads, Um kept his original estimate of 12 million units in the fourth quarter of calendar 2012, though he did note that he sees the general consensus of 13 million iPads as "achievable" given the expected seasonal boost during the holidays.



However, the firm said its more conservative estimate for iPad shipments is due to its belief that "there might be a slight shift in consumer preference to the company's Macbook computers." Pointing to current "consumer wallet constraints" due to economic woes, Um said customers may not be able to buy multiple Apple products simultaneously and could instead elect to purchase larger ticket items with more functionality.



In light of the expected iPhone upside, UBS raised its revenue estimates to $38.5 billion, up from $37.2 billion. The firm now expects earnings per share to reach $9.90, compared to a previous projection of $9.47. For fiscal 2012, Um sees Apple bringing in $142.7 billion in revenue and $35.83 EPS.



The firm maintains its buy rating for shares of Apple with a $510 12-month price target.







As holiday iPhone sales have come into full swing, a number of financial analysts have increased their sales projections for the device. Sterne Agee analyst Shaw Wu raised his forecast for iPhone sales to 28 million on Wednesday based on checks with Apple's global supply chain. He sees iPhone remaining strong across the board, including the older iPhone 4 and iPhone 3GS. J.P. Morgan also recently revised its forecasts to predict Apple as shipping 28 million iPhones this quarter.



Ticonderoga Securities' Brian White noted Tuesday that Apple had its best November ever, according to supply chain checks. White's "Apple Barometer" index of the company's Taiwan-based suppliers jumped up 17 percent month over month, an impressive number, given that average sequential growth for the past six years has stood at 2 percent.



Apple itself has said it is confident that iPhone sales will reach an all-time high this quarter. The iPhone 4S is already off to a record start after Apple sold four million units in its first three days of availability, more than double the amount of last year's iPhone 4 launch.



While analysts are generally in agreement that Apple will post record iPhone sales this quarter, they also agree that the iPad may see limited growth this quarter. Wu revised iPad estimates down from 15 million to 13.5 million on Wednesday, while J.P. Morgan's Mark Moskowitz has dipped his projection from 13.3 million to 13.0 million. Um's 12 million unit forecast remains on the lower end of estimates when compared with his colleagues' predictions.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,251member
    I am so long on Apple against my financial advisor's advice.... But I have faith
  • Reply 2 of 20
    tylerk36tylerk36 Posts: 1,037member
    Apple is projected to sell 100 million iPad's next year. And after the world ends the aliens will use the iPads to control your brain and make you do nasty things to each other while the aliens watch and laugh. It's from the old star trek. Kirk and Spok dance and sing while the aliens laugh at them.
  • Reply 3 of 20
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    30,000,000 x $625 = $18,750,000,000



    Isn't that still the average price per units for iPhones?
  • Reply 4 of 20
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,369member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    I am so long on Apple against my financial advisor's advice.... But I have faith



    Most people with reasonable understanding of the market do just as well as a professional adviser.
  • Reply 5 of 20
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,666member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    30,000,000 x $625 = $18,750,000,000



    Isn't that still the average price per units for iPhones?



    Damn, those are wild numbers!
  • Reply 6 of 20
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,369member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    30,000,000 x $625 = $18,750,000,000



    Isn't that still the average price per units for iPhones?



    No body really knows how much Apple is getting for each phone from the cell phone companies. It is sort of like figuring out how much a new car actually costs the dealership. The scam a few years ago was to advertise $XXXX dollars over invoice, however those invoices seldom reflected dealer cost.
  • Reply 7 of 20
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Most people with reasonable understanding of the market do just as well as a professional adviser.



    Correct. Not to mention they make nothing while you sit long.



    I took over my mother's estate and since that day he's not made a dime unless I send in a call to change investments and sit for the next 10 years.
  • Reply 8 of 20
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,369member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by paxman View Post


    Damn, those are wild numbers!



    Also imagine follow on App Store purchases. Huge numbers indeed. A wild a$$ guess would be 8 billion in profit.
  • Reply 9 of 20
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    No body really knows how much Apple is getting for each phone from the cell phone companies. It is sort of like figuring out how much a new car actually costs the dealership. The scam a few years ago was to advertise $XXXX dollars over invoice, however those invoices seldom reflected dealer cost.



    I'm not using the US price for an unlocked iPhone. If it's $625 then that is just coincidental. I'm using what I last read on the average price when the number of units is divided by the revenue. Unfortunately I can't seem to find any updated info to help pinpoint that number as Apple has increased their selling of older units.
  • Reply 10 of 20
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,369member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    Correct. Not to mention they make nothing while you sit long.



    There are some really terrible horror stories out there. Churning accounts for commissions is all to common.

    Quote:

    I took over my mother's estate and since that day he's not made a dime unless I send in a call to change investments and sit for the next 10 years.



    Even though you have control know I would not be all that pleased about working with somebody that has exploited accounts in the past.



    In a way I'm kinda glad I never had huge sums of money. It means that few come knocking on my door for a cut. Even so I'm not at all happy about what the market has done to my 401k. Even there I suspect that I've done better than many that pursue professional help.
  • Reply 11 of 20
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    The firm maintains its buy rating for shares of Apple with a $510 12-month price target...



    Haven't we seen that same $500-$600 ballpark 12-month price target for the last.....24 months?



    If they keep reiterating it long enough, they're all bound to finally get it right.
  • Reply 12 of 20
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,369member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    I'm not using the US price for an unlocked iPhone. If it's $625 then that is just coincidental. I'm using what I last read on the average price when the number of units is divided by the revenue. Unfortunately I can't seem to find any updated info to help pinpoint that number as Apple has increased their selling of older units.



    Actually the average price Apple gets from the telcos might go down, as you mention the 3GS is now a $0.99 phone. Still they pay something for each one of those 3GSs.



    I wouldnt be surprised if we find out that actual sales is even higher. People forget about the 3GS and frankly I'm not to sure how much valid information they can get out of the supplier base.



    Now add in close to ten million iPod Touch devices for the holiday season plus an equal number of iPads and Apple will have expanded its customer base by 50 million devices in one quarter. That is hot, very hot.



    Even more so it could be even better than that. Considering how long production on the 4s has been constrained the volume obviously have exceed production capability for some time. This on a phone with hardware very similar to the old model.
  • Reply 13 of 20
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post


    Actually the average price Apple gets from the telcos might go down, as you mention the 3GS is now a $0.99 phone. Still they pay something for each one of those 3GSs.



    I wouldnt be surprised if we find out that actual sales is even higher. People forget about the 3GS and frankly I'm not to sure how much valid information they can get out of the supplier base.



    That's what I'm getting at. Those older devices will bring it down but I also see a trend of the higher capacity phones being picked so than before which could bring it up. We don't have enough data points to know. How many iPhone 3GSes are sold per iPhone 4S. I'm thinking not too many.



    Quote:

    Now add in close to ten million iPod Touch devices for the holiday season plus an equal number of iPads and Apple will have expanded its customer base by 50 million devices in one quarter. That is hot, very hot.



    Even more so it could be even better than that. Considering how long production on the 4s has been constrained the volume obviously have exceed production capability for some time. This on a phone with hardware very similar to the old model.



    This covers more of their tremendous economics of scale for shared components, which leads me into this question specifically for you: Will the 2012 iPad, Touch and/or iPhone be a dual-core Cortex-A15, quad-core Cortex-A9, or something else entirely?
  • Reply 14 of 20
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 2,358member
    I hope that Apple is not as dismissive of the Kindle Fire in private as they are in quasi-public. It's entirely possible that the Fire will fizzle, but Apple should be prepared to deliver a subsidized iPod Touch or n-1 generation iPad to compete with the Fire. With iCloud, the iTunes Store, and the App Store, Apple has plenty of options for making money back on a subsidized device.
  • Reply 15 of 20
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tylerk36 View Post


    Apple is projected to sell 100 million iPad's next year. And after the world ends the aliens will use the iPads to control your brain and make you do nasty things to each other while the aliens watch and laugh. It's from the old star trek. Kirk and Spok dance and sing while the aliens laugh at them.





    I agree with you but must point out that it will do the aliens no good when Steve returns and tells them "I'm lying to you now"
  • Reply 16 of 20
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Investment bank UBS now believes Apple will sell as many as 30 million iPhones in the December quarter, up from a previous estimate of 28 million.



    So here we go. The analysts will continue to go crazy competing with each other to see who can publish the most wildly optimistic, unrealistic expectations for Apple's results. And then when Apple beats its own guidance by a comfortable margin but fails to hit the most absurd figures out there, we'll get a spate of "Apple fails to meet projections" stories and the share price will fall.



    It's really too bad that investors don't pay attention to how bad the advice is that they're getting from these advisors. If they did, there might be a consequence to making stupid guesses on things like this. As it is, though, there's no downside. You can make all the crazy predictions you want - and if the company fails to meet them, it's the company's fault.
  • Reply 17 of 20
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    I hope that Apple is not as dismissive of the Kindle Fire in private as they are in quasi-public. It's entirely possible that the Fire will fizzle, but Apple should be prepared to deliver a subsidized iPod Touch or n-1 generation iPad to compete with the Fire. With iCloud, the iTunes Store, and the App Store, Apple has plenty of options for making money back on a subsidized device.



    You can be sure that Apple is aware of the Fire and not ignoring it.



    However, that doesn't mean that they'll every try to compete with it. Just like in computers, Apple realizes that there are some people for whom price is the only thing that matters - and there's no point in going after that segment of the market since there are no profits to be had.



    And subsidizing with with iTunes store just doesn't make any sense. That's that Amazon's trying to do, but I don't see it working for Apple. They don't make any significant profit on the iTunes store, so why sell hardware at a loss in order to sell them an unprofitable service? Instead, they have always used the service to help sell profitable hardware.
  • Reply 18 of 20
    I see the analysts are again setting up Apple shareholders to take a fall. 30 million iPhones? If Apple ends up selling 29.9 million iPhones, the stock will drop like a stone. I really wonder why it is necessary to constantly revise numbers during a quarter. Do they think that investors are going to put money in Apple based on something like that. The bulls say that Apple is already undervalued, so if if iPhone numbers stayed at 28 million, that's still iPhone growth and money in the bank for Apple. Adding a couple of million more iPhone sales shouldn't do a thing except increase the reserve cash that much more. Upwardly revising sales numbers for Apple does nothing for the share price. With so many hedge funds and institutions holding Apple, they control Apple's share price movement, not sales numbers. Apple will likely outpace every computer/tech company on sales and revenue this quarter and it won't make a bit of difference to Wall Street.
  • Reply 19 of 20
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post


    I'm not using the US price for an unlocked iPhone. If it's $625 then that is just coincidental. I'm using what I last read on the average price when the number of units is divided by the revenue. Unfortunately I can't seem to find any updated info to help pinpoint that number as Apple has increased their selling of older units.



    From Apple's most recent 10K for FY ending Sept '11, p. 30, we know that "iPhones and related products & services" brought in $47.057B in revenue this past year, and that they sold 72.293M iPhones.



    That works out to ~$651 per iPhone sold. So, your estimate of $625 is, if anything, a bit conservative.
  • Reply 20 of 20
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    From Apple's most recent 10K for FY ending Sept '11, p. 30, we know that "iPhones and related products & services" brought in $47.057B in revenue this past year, and that they sold 72.293M iPhones.



    That works out to ~$651 per iPhone sold. So, your estimate of $625 is, if anything, a bit conservative.



    I thought it might be seeing as how the missing quarters in the chart would have quarters of a product that has more than paid for its R&D. I hadn't thought to check the 10K. Thanks.
Sign In or Register to comment.