Fiscal Q1 2012: Apple's biggest earnings blowout in history

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Just as the bearish sentiment in Apple hits a cyclical peak, the company is about to deliver the the biggest earnings blowout in the history of the world.



We're talking about the mother of all earnings blowouts. Well maybe not that big, but certainly the largest blowout in company history without question.



The difference between wealth and poverty on Wall Street is determined by ignoring the fluff, respecting the details and using reason to tease out the bottom-line reality generally overlooked by the masses. While everyone focuses on whether the passing of Steve Jobs marks the end of Apple, or whether the Amazon Kindle Fire will kill the iPad, the company is quietly selling millions upon millions of iPhones that far exceed even the most rosy expectations.



The most valuable company in America is about to grow its earnings by a whopping 84 percent this quarter, and Wall Street is asleep at the wheel. Apple's trailing twelve months of earnings is going to skyrocket from $27.68 to at least $33.00 which will finally drive Apple's P/E ratio down into the 11′s. While fund managers continue to debate whether they should buy Amazon (AMZN) at a 95 P/E ratio or Google at 22 P/E ratio, Apple will have reported more in revenue in one quarter than each of these companies reported all last year.



Bullish Cross Research expects Apple to report $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue in fiscal Q1, which compares to the Wall Street consensus estimates of $9.79 in EPS on $38 billion in revenue. The Bullish Cross outlook, if proven accurate, will amount to Apple reporting the largest revenue and earnings blowout in the history of the company. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross Fiscal Q1 2012 Earning Forecast for Apple Inc. and includes a very specific breakdown in our revenue expectations:







We expect this blowout to be largely driven by Wall Street underestimating the power of the iPhone side of the force. That will be the story this quarter. We expect Apple to conservatively report that it shipped 32-40 million iPhones far ahead of the 25 million iPhones that Wall Street expects out of the company. That will be the largest gap between Wall Street expectations and actual results since the iPhone was first introduced in 2007.



Yet, not only do we believe that Apple will comfortably ship 32 million iPhones without a hitch, we think our expectations will actually prove too conservative. In fact, we believe that Apple will actually end up reporting sales of more than 35 million iPhones which will cause the heart attack of at least several hundred short sellers. It will be a total deer-in-head-lights type earnings blowout where people just stand there and say "WTF" repeatedly while slowing doing the defeated head-shake ? CNBC contributor Steve Cortez will be among their number with his admitted Apple short position.



While we think Apple will basically more or less report in-line on iPads, iPods and Macs, iPhone sales will redefine everything Wall Street thought they knew about the company. The minute this report hits the street, the cyclical Apple bear will be shot point blank in the head. You're going to see the sentiment shift from ultra-bearish to ultra-bullish in mere seconds. We've seen it happen before and we're about to see it happen again in fiscal Q1. So the bears have about 3-4 more weeks to live. Enjoy it while it lasts.



Now it is important to understand that investors should view the Bullish Cross "official" outlook this quarter as being merely the lower boundary of what one should reasonably expect Apple to report. While we think there's a significant chance that Apple will end up reporting $11.75 in EPS on $42 billion in revenue, we still believe that there's a much higher likelihood that Apple will report a quarter that is more in-line with the outlook presented by my colleague at Asymco, Horace Dediu. Horace Dediu is one of the best analysts out there, is one of the leading experts on the global smart-phone market, and is a testament to his Alma Mater, the Harvard Business School.







Dediu has put together an expectation that is very much in-line with the Bullish Cross "high-point" forecast for Apple. Our "high-point" forecast is an expectation we put out every quarter that takes into account the possibility that Apple could deliver a perfect quarter. Notice that Apple has delivered a report that was in-line or slightly above the Bullish Cross high-point estimate twice in the past two years. Once in fiscal Q2 2010 and again in fiscal Q3 2011. Both times it resulted in Apple gapping up uncontrollably after being unhalted in after-hours. The table below outlines the Bullish Cross High-Point Outlook:







This expectation outlined by Dediu, if proven accurate, will result in an unimaginable blowout of epic proportions. We're talking about a top-line beat of nearly $7 billion with iPhone sales blowing out estimates by over 10.7 million units or nearly 50 percent. The most Apple has beaten the consensus on iPhones in any previous quarter has been by only a few million units or about 20 percent. That's at the high end. Here we're talking something completely unseen before on Wall Street. Missing iPhone units by 50 percent will force the street to go back to the drawing board and re-evaluate everything they thought they knew about the company.



The Dediu outlook is calling for Apple to report $12.30 in EPS on $44.6 billion in revenue on the back of sales of 35.7 million iPhones, 14.7 million iPads and 5.2 million Macs. Dediu is expecting iPhone sales to grow 120 percent leading to a 91 percent increase in earnings per share.



If this outlook by Dediu comes to pass, it will lead to the biggest gap-up in the history of the company. In fact, I think such a report will lead to at least a 10 percent gap-up in the stock if not more. What I would expect to see is Apple halted at least 10 minutes before the results are released and once Apple resumes trading, we should see the stock $50.00 higher. If Apple is trading around $400 when it reports its results, it will gap-up to $450. If it's trading at around $430 a share when it repots, it will test $500 that week.



This is a once in a decade type earnings reaction that we've seen happen a few times with Google. Haven't really seen that type of an earnings reaction out of Apple yet. And that's mostly because Apple typically runs into the results.



Moreover, Apple tends to almost always sell-off after reporting earnings in fiscal Q1 as the stock tends to rally significantly between September and January. Here, Apple has been trading sideways since July. So there hasn't been much of a run-up in the stock price.



Thus, the type of reaction that we will get this quarter will largely depend on the type of pre-earnings run-up we see in the stock. If the bearish sentiment and trading action continues up until the day Apple reports earnings and we get a Horace Dediu blowout, Apple's going up $50.00.



Again, this type of a blowout expected by Dediu is a once in a decade type earnings blowout and we'll observe a corresponding once in a decade type response in the stock price. Yet it is important remember that Dediu is presenting what is the equivalent of our high-point outlook. If everything goes perfectly, we will see his expectations come to fruition.



But if the Bullish Cross "official" outlook is to be viewed as the lower boundary, then the Horace Dediu outlook forms the upper boundary. You should expect Apple to report between those two outlooks. And when it does, it will be a record blowout regardless. Our lower boundary is already calling for a record revenue and earnings blowout out of Apple.



For those who are interested in the events and reasons leading up to this eventual blowout, we basically explain how it came to this in two articles entitled, Why Apple's Guidance is Still Conservative and How to Properly use Apple's Guidance to Accurately Forecast Earnings.



Andy M. Zaky is a fund manager at Bullish Cross Capital and the editor of the Bullish Cross Financial Newsletter. Bullish Cross Capital owns a significant long position in Apple, Inc.
«1345

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 89
    Oh, great. So when this is wrong, the stock will tank and…



    Well, you know the drill.



    Quote:

    an unimaginable blowout of epic proportions.



    THIS ISN'T HELPING!
  • Reply 2 of 89
    asciiascii Posts: 5,941member
    I used to think Daniel Eran Dilger was the most hyperbolic writer on this site, but Andy M. Zaky sure takes the cake now. I hope it's true though, that earnings will increase 84%.
  • Reply 3 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Oh, great. So when this is wrong, the stock will tank and?



    Well, you know the drill.







    THIS ISN'T HELPING!



    Worse, Apple will likely achieve this, and yet, perhaps after a brief, tepid bump, it's back to noodling around at where it is now.



    At this point, I am convinced the market is waiting to see Apple successfully execute a major new product intro post-Jobs. (Which, they will, superbly).
  • Reply 4 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Oh, great. So when this is wrong, the stock will tank and…



    Well, you know the drill.







    THIS ISN'T HELPING!



    ... and if he's right... well, let's just say that there will be shorts filling their shorts.



    [but there is always the possibility that even if Apple pulled off a $45 billion quarter the analysts would say that Apple will never be able to keep up that momentum and therefore give Apple a neutral rating. Fiscal q2 is unveiled in April and Apple shows $35 billion in rev... the analysts say, "I told you so!"... and AAPL declines 10% by the end of May.)
  • Reply 5 of 89
    Largest earnings blowout in the history of the world. Run while you can. Take cover. Happens right after closing bell. Go, go, go.



    [LOL. Wipes tears from eyes.] Seriously though, Andy Zaky has a good record. He posts his numbers before the call and I'm astonished that he's gotten so much closer than analysts with, ahem, less flair for the dramatic. I appreciate that his posts appear here but make sure to take a heaping measure of salt with any predictions. ("It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." - Yogi Berra)
  • Reply 6 of 89
    Waiting for Hellacool to troll on here saying that this is not what really matters, that Apple's robots are responsible for all these incredible sales and that Android will take over the world in 5 years and that Apple will the be richest company, albeit in a niche, which doesn't really matter. All that matters is that Google's schlong is longer than Apple's, or something like that.



  • Reply 7 of 89
    sadly their super-conservative (or nearly useless as the articles say) earnings outlook for the next quarter don't really help and pulsl the stock back down. There seems to be a spike after the initial earnings numbers, but as the outlook numbers come up and are then talked about in the conference call, the stock pulls back a bit. +10% in AH is +3 to +5% by the end of the next market day
  • Reply 8 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ... biggest earnings blowout in the history of the world. ... largest blowout in company history ...



    I'd just like to point out that "blowout" is a superlative term and thus there is not really any such thing as a "big, bigger or biggest" blowout.

    A blowout is a blowout. There are not small medium and large varieties.
  • Reply 9 of 89
    Microsoft always deliver blowout numbers but their stock has been stuck in the 23-26 range for over 5 years...stop pumping Apple stock is not going anywhere anytime soon..
  • Reply 10 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by daylove22 View Post


    Microsoft always deliver blowout numbers but their stock has been stuck in the 23-26 range for over 5 years...stop pumping Apple stock is not going anywhere anytime soon..



    they also pay a dividend
  • Reply 11 of 89
    "...the company is about to deliver the the biggest earnings blowout in the history of the world."



    Not to put too fine a point on it, but please don't tell us Apple is now bigger than Jesus.
  • Reply 12 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Elian Gonzalez View Post


    Not to put too fine a point on it, but please don't tell us Apple is now bigger than Jesus.



    Why compare Apple to an enterprise that's in worldwide decline?
  • Reply 13 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Psych_guy View Post


    Waiting for Hellacool to troll on here saying that this is not what really matters, that Apple's robots are responsible for all these incredible sales and that Android will take over the world in 5 years and that Apple will the be richest company, albeit in a niche, which doesn't really matter. All that matters is that Google's schlong is longer than Apple's, or something like that.







    Please stay on-topic.
  • Reply 14 of 89
    Let's face it, whatever numbers Apple announces in a few weeks -- between iPad 3/iPhone 5/ Apple HDTV -- it will be NOTHING

    compared to the 1Q13 results ....



    The foundation of the Mothership HQ will be made out of $100 bills.
  • Reply 15 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post


    I'd just like to point out that "blowout" is a superlative term and thus there is not really any such thing as a "big, bigger or biggest" blowout.

    A blowout is a blowout. There are not small medium and large varieties.



    Obviously you have never had Taco Bell and alcohol.
  • Reply 16 of 89
    in related news:



    Samsung Drops iPhone 4S Germany Patent Suit After Discovering Apple’s Qualcomm Licensing Agreement



    According to patent expert Florian Mueller of FOSS Patents, Samsung recently discovered a Qualcomm licensing agreement protects the technology.



    http://9to5mac.com/2011/12/16/samsun...ing-agreement/
  • Reply 17 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Prof. Peabody View Post


    I'd just like to point out that "blowout" is a superlative term and thus there is not really any such thing as a "big, bigger or biggest" blowout.



    Your local gas utility company would likely disagree with you.
  • Reply 18 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Elian Gonzalez View Post


    "...the company is about to deliver the the biggest earnings blowout in the history of the world."



    Not to put too fine a point on it, but please don't tell us Apple is now bigger than Jesus.





    No, but Apple IS bigger than the Beatles. Oh, wait...
  • Reply 19 of 89
    If the share price is going to continue to fall, it won't matter to shareholders how much revenue Apple is pulling in. I'm not blaming Apple for the situation, I'm only saying that bullish outlooks mean nothing if shareholders continue to see bearish results. When it comes to Apple, Wall Street continues to look years into the future so that they can devalue the company despite current record earnings. You might say that Apple is being priced to fail which makes very little logical sense, but if the people running Wall Street are represented by John Corzine, then it's perfectly clear. My case in point is that Apple is performing far better than the financial institutions that are claiming Apple's future growth potential is rather limited. What right have they got to decide such a thing when their own institutions are in financial shambles? I don't believe they are qualified to accurately predict Apple's future.



    Guys like Zaky and Dediu enjoy playing with numbers and that's all they see. The people that are actually controlling the market are not true numbers people. They're probably just high rolling gamblers or maybe there's no risk at all because they actually control the market to suit themselves. I'm not sure, but when a company's share price disconnects from fundamentals, then something is most definitely wrong. It wouldn't even make sense to build a successful company if that is the outcome. I've been Apple long since 2004 and I really shouldn't be griping since I've made money but it's getting annoying hearing these protests about the market cheating Apple shareholders because there probably won't be any changes made in the near future. Apple shareholders will just have to suck it up or look elsewhere for share gains.
  • Reply 20 of 89
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Just as the bearish sentiment in Apple hits a cyclical peak, the company is about to deliver the the biggest earnings blowout in the history of the world.



    The problem is that the subsequent quarters are not going to be that great. That's what the Street is perhaps afraid of. 4s holiday demand will run out of juice and then Apple will be left in the vacuum for 2-3 quarters in a row until iPhone 5 is out.
Sign In or Register to comment.