Kindle Fire cannibalized 1M to 2M iPad sales 'at most' this holiday

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 52
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member
    "As for the Mac, McCourt has reduced his estimate from 4.9 million units to 4.8 million units over the holidays"







    I wonder what data point enabled him to be soooooo precise. What is he drinking to believe that such a small change in his estimate is material to anyone?
  • Reply 22 of 52
    It is too easy for analysts, pundits and platform fanatics to group things counter-intelligently:



    > Does it have wheels? It's a car, therefore Trek is being out-sold by Chevy by an order of magnitude - struggling to keep pace with Detroit automakers.



    > Does it run Android? It's automatically a competitor for iOS, even if it is not the same class of device as those running iOS. Frankly I'm surprised someone like our dear slapppy hasn't cited all the Android smartphones with a music player app on them as leading the market against iPods.



    > Conversely iPads are outselling rectangular smart photo frames by a factor of 1 miilion to 1. So Apple has completely owned the rest of the smart photoframe makers hands down!



    Just like Steve Ballmer wants Windows in everything, Andy Rubin and Larry Page want Android in everything. It really doesn't matter that the device doesn't need to use it, or that it is a category of device that Apple doesn't make - as long as Android (or Windows) wins the check-off-the-largest-number-of-devices competition. And that's all that matter to Android fanatics anyway. Having lost the battle for the desktop, the open source folks have to shrilly proclaim whatever victories they can cobble together.



    Besides since no real numbers are being used in these prognostications, its all smoke and mirrors until real numbers are actually used.



    What exactly is a Kindle Fire? Well first off, with the name Kindle attached to it, and an existing ereader image and market, most people will perceive this as simply a more advanced ereader - which is essentially correct. That it runs an implementation of Android is a selling point only for those whose preference is for that label - so credit Amazon for doing a very clever market segment capture with that as well. Is it a direct competitor for the iPad? Not at all. Did some people buy it because it kinda of looked and sort of behaved like an iPad - probably. Did a bunch of geeks run out and buy one to hack and root? Probably. Is it a fully functional Android device - free to fulfill it's destiny of trying to suck the air from a redolent iPad atmosphere? Obviously not. It is a retro-version, locked-down, small-screened, poorly implemented, orphaned Android device designed to serve Amazon's marketing model. Nuf-said.
  • Reply 23 of 52
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by svesan03 View Post


    Come on guys, hardly worth the discussion. There are people who cannot afford the iPad no matter what and have to settle for third best, there will always be a market for Kindle, albeit a small one. If Kindle users become iPad owners it will be in the secondary market and only after the frustration level has reached its peak... Had an iPad been within their budget, they would have certainly purchased one in the first place.



    No one of means wakes up in the morning and declares, "today, I think I'll buy the cheap emulator because it's a free country and I have a right to purchase something inferior if I want to dammit!"



    Actually, I think it IS relevant. The Fire is $199 and the iPad is $499 to $829. Yet this analyst's estimate is that AT MOST, the Fire convinced less than 15% of iPad users to switch. Seems to me like pretty solid evidence that the Fire is just not considered by the market to be an adequate replacement for the iPad. After all, if it was even comparable, a 60-80% savings would have made a LOT more people switch.
  • Reply 24 of 52
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I doubt the number was that high. The price disparity, size, and utility disparity makes these products quite different. Most buyers simply aren't debating over the iPad and Fire.



    If anything the Fire has killed plenty of Kindle eReader sales but don't the other Kindles actually make a slim profit and aren't reportedly a $50 loss per unit? If any of that is partially correct Amazon could show increased revenue but lowered profit for last quarter.



    In the end I think the Fire and Nook Color will show buyers how a tablet can be useful, and they will opt for the 10" full sized, fully functional tablet next time if Amazon and B&N don't step up their game.
  • Reply 25 of 52
    I can't see iPad sales growing anywhere near the rate that we've seen until now. Sure, the holiday quarter will be great but Apple or someone will have to bring the next great App to the iPad to sustain current rates of growth. When that next great app hits the streets then I can see more and more people ditching their desktop and laptop computers for a tablet.



    Having said that I can't see the Kindle Fire staying in production for any more than another 9 months tops if Amazon isn't getting the roi it was expecting from content sales. Solipsism gives another reason for discontinuing the Fire, it cannibalizes sales from the other Kindles which are guaranteed to at least sell books.
  • Reply 26 of 52
    wigginwiggin Posts: 2,265member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Actually, I think it IS relevant. The Fire is $199 and the iPad is $499 to $829. Yet this analyst's estimate is that AT MOST, the Fire convinced less than 15% of iPad users to switch. Seems to me like pretty solid evidence that the Fire is just not considered by the market to be an adequate replacement for the iPad. After all, if it was even comparable, a 60-80% savings would have made a LOT more people switch.



    And at most Apple has convinced only 10% of personal computer users to buy a Mac instead of Windows. Also, market share can't really be used as an indicator of where things are going when you are talking about a 1st generation device.



    The first versions of Windows in the 80/90's sucked, but look what happened next. Amazon has deep pockets, and like MS when they were trying to get Windows to work, they have alternate revenue streams to support the ongoing development of their product. The Kindle Fire has been successful enough to get a foothold in the tablet market. Only time will tell where Amazon will go from here. PC manufactures are too quick to throw in the towel when they don't have instant success against Apple. I don't think Amazon will act the same way. Like MS, I think they will keep hammering away at it and improving their product.
  • Reply 27 of 52
    ezduzitezduzit Posts: 158member
    not only does amzn not report their actual sales, there is a greatly distorted account of how much amzn loses on each sale.



    the standard # is usually a 3cts loss, just relating to the cost of the kindle etc.

    this does not include the costs for marketing, shipping, handling and a myriad of other costs that are hidden in 'overhead'.



    not to forget, amzn showed a loss despite record sales. the ipad threat is diminished when the other factors are included. sooner or later amzn will have to dummy up to the plate with their sales.
  • Reply 28 of 52
    drdoppiodrdoppio Posts: 1,132member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pridon View Post


    I noticed that the KF 1 & 2 star ratings on Amazon.com have stagnated have held steady for the past few days. Guess Amazon must be blocking them They have been running at about 19.5%



    You are slandering Amazon -- you don't have any evidence that they have ever blocked reviews.



    The statistics have remained practically unchanged since the first few hundred reviews (there are close to 10 000 now). 1-star ratings are roughly 1 out of 10 since day 1.



    If anything, Amazon has been too liberal in permitting semi-literate nincompoops to leave reviews. Many 1-star ratings came from morons who didn't understand the product description before buying.
  • Reply 29 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NOFEER View Post


    first amazon doesn't post k fire sold/ delivered

    and

    what's the return rate of fire vs iPad



    On topic, though the specifics differ... I noticed on the "Survive France Group" forum recently that one Amazon Kindle owner had returned FIVE in a year because her 15-year old daughter kept sitting on them and cracking the screen (perhaps the Kindles are too small... or the 15-year old is...).



    http://www.survivefrance.com/group/b...mment%3A250492



    So perhaps Amazons rather vague "millions" of sales include returns en masse.
  • Reply 30 of 52
    What a crock of sh**!!

    This has to be the most blatant lie I have heard in a long time. So 2 million iPads weren't sold because 2 million kindle fires were?

    So the logical assumption here is that if you or I purchase a product other than Apple then Apple's then Apple suffers financially and their stock price takes a hit according to this doomsday cult anaylsist?

    LOL!! God save the children.
  • Reply 31 of 52
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,939member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post


    Another day, another analyst report. Fodder for trolls and fanboys. Let 'er rip!



    I rest my case.
  • Reply 32 of 52
    jlanddjlandd Posts: 873member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    What a crock of sh**!!

    This has to be the most blatant lie I have heard in a long time. So 2 million iPads weren't sold because 2 million kindle fires were?

    So the logical assumption here is that if you or I purchase a product other than Apple then Apple's then Apple suffers financially and their stock price takes a hit according to this doomsday cult anaylsist?

    LOL!! God save the children.



    The day that anyone ever recommends Morgan Keenan stock will be the day I start paying any attention to their net-bites.
  • Reply 33 of 52
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nagromme View Post


    Even with no data, intuitively it had to cannibalize some number



    No it didn't HAVE TO.



    the Kindle Fire is geared to a totally different market than the iPad. Those that bought it are likely those that never planned to get an iPad for whatever reason.



    Add to this that everyone is sure there will be an iPad 3 any day now and those that haven't bought an iPad 2 are mainly due to this reason. Not because they decided to get a Fire instead.



    This guy is an analyst whose job is to talk out of his butt to try to raise stock prices, Amazon's in this case. Never trust an analyst to know what they are talking about.
  • Reply 34 of 52
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,215member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    So 2 million iPads weren't sold because 2 million kindle fires were?



    this guy is going to be real embarrassed when it turns out that only 1 million Fires were sold and then 900k of those were returned to wait and buy the iPad 3.
  • Reply 35 of 52
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by slapppy View Post


    Any Android powered device is a direct competitor to any iOS device. Simple. Anyone who believes otherwise has their head buried in the ground.



    So you're saying this



    http://www.wimm.com/



    is a direct competitor to the iPad?
  • Reply 36 of 52
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ericography View Post


    So you're saying this http://www.wimm.com/ is a direct competitor to the iPad?



    So it's a $300, thicker, worse iPod nano.



    。。。



  • Reply 37 of 52
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,788member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


    [...] This guy is an analyst whose job is to talk out of his butt to try to raise stock prices, Amazon's in this case. Never trust an analyst to know what they are talking about.



    Well said.
  • Reply 38 of 52
    chiachia Posts: 696member
    Furthermore the Kindle Fire is currently only sold by Amazon in the USA, so it's not taking away potential international sales of iPads.
  • Reply 39 of 52
    tinman0tinman0 Posts: 168member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Wiggin View Post




    The first versions of Windows in the 80/90's sucked, but look what happened next. Amazon has deep pockets, and like MS when they were trying to get Windows to work, they have alternate revenue streams to support the ongoing development of their product. The Kindle Fire has been successful enough to get a foothold in the tablet market. Only time will tell where Amazon will go from here. PC manufactures are too quick to throw in the towel when they don't have instant success against Apple. I don't think Amazon will act the same way. Like MS, I think they will keep hammering away at it and improving their product.



    I'm not sure Amazin does have deep pockets though. Their last quarter was $68m in profits, which for a company turning over $4bn is not a lot. It's nice to make $68m admittedly, but your a company worth in excess of $100bn by market cap - $68m is what your scrape off your boot.



    And the Fire loses Amazon money, not makes. Apple treats the App Store and iTunes as something that makes the next hardware sale, as opposed to standalone businesses. Look at the margins of the iTunes division, and the only people making money is the music industry - and Amazon charge less than iTunes! So Amazon has to be really careful here.



    Plus there is the issue that they cannibalised their own Kindle sales. So instead of someone buying a Kindle/Kindle Touch which does have a margin, they sacrificed that customer for the loss leading machine. That is a double whammy.



    Amazon in my opinion are playing a very dangerous game right now with their financials.
  • Reply 40 of 52
    I wonder how McCourt was able to separate Kindle Fire sales from the "over 4 million Kindles sold" from Amazon. $1-$2 million Kindle Fires sold to otherwise iPad purchasers seem quite unlikely since that would have to be near 50% of all Kindle Fires sold (unless sales of the other Kindle products were abysmal. McCourt really has no basis at all for his supposition.
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