So the guy at the top of the estimates did a ratio from last holiday quarter. The catch is Apple had a bigger tablet market share in 2010, so you need to deduce something from that number. If you take out 2 millions because of the Kindle fire and others you get 17.46. Remember the Kindle Fire is a US only product, the impact is limited to US sales only.
So that my estimate, 17.46
If the real number is anything above 17 millions the stock is going to lift off to the moon. We already know the Mac did great, the iphone did great from leaks of wireless co sales. The last unknown is the ipad.
Don't think you can compare quarter over quarter such as Q4 growth over Q1 because diff. seasonality. It's better to use Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2011, which will compare Christmas selling season bewteen 2010 and 2011.
You're right about the stock going thru the roof though; I think anywhere above 14.5 million units, the stock will hit north of $450.
Don't think you can compare quarter over quarter such as Q4 growth over Q1 because diff. seasonality. It's better to use Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2011, which will compare Christmas selling season bewteen 2010 and 2011.
You're right about the stock going thru the roof though; I think anywhere above 14.5 million units, the stock will hit north of $450.
I think using Q3 to Q4 growth for 2010 and applying it in 2011 is the way to do it, its the same quarters the year before, so it does take into account the holiday quarter boost.
Note that i am now speaking in calender quarters and my example was using Apple fiscal quarters
Kindle Fire this and Kindle Fire that... Why don't they say that the Kindle Touch is also eating into iPad sales. I really don't get it. The Kindle Fire isn't even close in features to compare to the iPad and the price is nowhere's near iPad price, either. That's like saying Nissan Sentra sales are eating into BMW M3 Coupe sales merely because they lumping all certain size cars together. No one ever mentions how many Fires are getting returned because they don't want to hurt Jeff Bezos ego. Why don't they mention that the iPad is stealing sales from the Kindle Fire because if that's the case it should go either way? Apple is doing a bang-up job selling products on its own and the iPad doesn't need to be linked to whatever Amazon's tablet sales are doing.
Because that would go against the tech media's penchant for trying to 'stick it to Apple' any chance they get, and desperately looking for the next 'iPod/iPhone/iPad killer'. In spite of the constant reporting that something that will destroy Apple is just around the corner, it never actually materializes. Even with Apple's insane success the past few years, they're still second-guessed at every turn, and the 'they're doing it wrong' reporting hasn't lessened.
I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?
Not always. Some analysts extrapolate from data provided by parts suppliers. Some actually hire students (or stooges) to stand at Apple stores (and AT&T, etc.) to see how many people leave with iPads (or Macs, or iPods). They then correlate these numbers with actual sales using historical correlations.
The iPad 2 seemed to be the must have gift this Christmas. I personally know of over a dozen friends, family and colleagues who got one for themselves or as a family iPad.
As many shares as you want to make your own dividend.
I can never understand all this griping for dividends. The lack of a dividend allows us all to remove money from Apple at the exact rate which is best for our own personal financial situation.
As many shares as you want to make your own dividend.
I can never understand all this griping for dividends. The lack of a dividend allows us all to remove money from Apple at the exact rate which is best for our own personal financial situation.
You have just made the perfect argument for a dividend. Not offering one forces stockholders to sell to obtain any benefit from investing. This increases the stock's volatility, which I guess makes day traders happy, but investors have different objectives.
Further, if you want to see AAPL's value trade up, watch what happens in the days after a dividend is announced. This would be a total win-win for investors. I will never understand why any stockholder would not want to have more cash in their pocket.
Comments
Q4 2010 - 4.19 (october 18, 2010)
Q1 2011 - 7.33 (January 18, 2011)
So (7.33 - 4.19) / 4.19 = 75% growth
Q4 2011 - 11.12 (October 18, 2011)
Q1 2012 - ?
So 11.12 * 0.75 = 8.34 + 11.12 = 19.46
So the guy at the top of the estimates did a ratio from last holiday quarter. The catch is Apple had a bigger tablet market share in 2010, so you need to deduce something from that number. If you take out 2 millions because of the Kindle fire and others you get 17.46. Remember the Kindle Fire is a US only product, the impact is limited to US sales only.
So that my estimate, 17.46
If the real number is anything above 17 millions the stock is going to lift off to the moon. We already know the Mac did great, the iphone did great from leaks of wireless co sales. The last unknown is the ipad.
Don't think you can compare quarter over quarter such as Q4 growth over Q1 because diff. seasonality. It's better to use Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2011, which will compare Christmas selling season bewteen 2010 and 2011.
You're right about the stock going thru the roof though; I think anywhere above 14.5 million units, the stock will hit north of $450.
Don't think you can compare quarter over quarter such as Q4 growth over Q1 because diff. seasonality. It's better to use Q4 2010 vs. Q4 2011, which will compare Christmas selling season bewteen 2010 and 2011.
You're right about the stock going thru the roof though; I think anywhere above 14.5 million units, the stock will hit north of $450.
I think using Q3 to Q4 growth for 2010 and applying it in 2011 is the way to do it, its the same quarters the year before, so it does take into account the holiday quarter boost.
Note that i am now speaking in calender quarters and my example was using Apple fiscal quarters
Kindle Fire this and Kindle Fire that... Why don't they say that the Kindle Touch is also eating into iPad sales. I really don't get it. The Kindle Fire isn't even close in features to compare to the iPad and the price is nowhere's near iPad price, either. That's like saying Nissan Sentra sales are eating into BMW M3 Coupe sales merely because they lumping all certain size cars together. No one ever mentions how many Fires are getting returned because they don't want to hurt Jeff Bezos ego. Why don't they mention that the iPad is stealing sales from the Kindle Fire because if that's the case it should go either way? Apple is doing a bang-up job selling products on its own and the iPad doesn't need to be linked to whatever Amazon's tablet sales are doing.
Because that would go against the tech media's penchant for trying to 'stick it to Apple' any chance they get, and desperately looking for the next 'iPod/iPhone/iPad killer'. In spite of the constant reporting that something that will destroy Apple is just around the corner, it never actually materializes. Even with Apple's insane success the past few years, they're still second-guessed at every turn, and the 'they're doing it wrong' reporting hasn't lessened.
I take it these numbers are all just pulled out of thin air?
Not always. Some analysts extrapolate from data provided by parts suppliers. Some actually hire students (or stooges) to stand at Apple stores (and AT&T, etc.) to see how many people leave with iPads (or Macs, or iPods). They then correlate these numbers with actual sales using historical correlations.
13.5M seems low to me by 2M.
As per usual AI articles, it's up to the reader to figure out how they come up with stuff.
The green are independent analysts. The blue are institutional analysts (street). (from the original Fortune article)
Notice the title is "Street consensus"?
So average out only the blue to get the 13.5.
Tip: It's whatever Gene Munster and Shaw Wu say, these guys know their shit, no one else really has a clue.
Fortune also doesn't have a clue, since they put the date wrong on the estimate of Andy Zaky (10/19/12)
a dividend
As many shares as you want to make your own dividend.
I can never understand all this griping for dividends. The lack of a dividend allows us all to remove money from Apple at the exact rate which is best for our own personal financial situation.
As many shares as you want to make your own dividend.
I can never understand all this griping for dividends. The lack of a dividend allows us all to remove money from Apple at the exact rate which is best for our own personal financial situation.
You have just made the perfect argument for a dividend. Not offering one forces stockholders to sell to obtain any benefit from investing. This increases the stock's volatility, which I guess makes day traders happy, but investors have different objectives.
Further, if you want to see AAPL's value trade up, watch what happens in the days after a dividend is announced. This would be a total win-win for investors. I will never understand why any stockholder would not want to have more cash in their pocket.