You really should do it. I profit all the time from economically "no-brain" (to use your own words) folks like you who act without any analysis. it. Especially this case where the analysts are divided in half. But I'm sure you knew that already.
That's ok; I'm sure if it was Steve's new company; you would bet the farm and the Honda civic.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cvaldes1831
Ah, it wouldn't be a long-term short. I just want it to drop 10-15% in a couple of weeks (or days), then I'd pull the plug.
I know there are better gambling opportunities, but FB looks like a no-brainer for a really quick short. I'm certainly not betting the farm on FB. But if I can walk away with a couple of grand (pre-tax) in a week or two, I think it's worth it.
I don't trust analysts. Most fund managers can't even beat the S&P 500.
And no, I wouldn't bet the farm and the "Honda Civic" on Steve's new company. After all, I'm all about diversification.
Remember, I didn't buy the farm on AAPL either (a concept you seem to be unsurprisingly happy to deny).
No worries, keep it up, girlie!
Your vitriol and ad hominem attacks will definitely make you a vastly superior human being, someone worthy of answering in anonymous high tech rumor sites. Have a nice day!!!
I am highly tempted to short Facebook after the IPO.
Just wait for the nonsensical share price run-up, then short.
I dunno, I think people could be valuing Facebook at $50 billion. As much as I hate to say it, because companies around the world have adopted in en force, $5 billion is just a start.
Also, most people used to think Facebook made little profits. $1 billion is pretty significant.
Facebook is only selling a small portion of its shares - I haven't dug far enough to get the information from a good source, but what I've found suggest that they're only selling 5% of their shares - so $5 B for the IPO (for 5% of the company) EQUALS a $100 B valuation.
(another source vaguely hinted that this would be for 10% of the company which would put the valuation at $50 B.
Ah okay, I stand corrected. So $100 billion valuation. Sounds on the high side, I was putting them at a ballpark of $50 billion. Still, $50-$100 billion valuation, like I said, it may piss you off, but that's the power of Facebook today.
Watch Apple bring out an awesome social networking program with all the bells and whistles. Watch as all those on paper millionaires blow their money on extravagant toys and then watch as the FB boom falls like a lead ball in pig urine.
The investors are going to say the fun and games are over nerds. Time to make the REAL PLAYAS money. Before you know it FB will start to come in different flavors. Where each flavor, like going in ascending numerical order, will offer more sh** than the proceeding flavor.
And of course the top tier flavors will cost and cost more.
Screw that!
FB's IPO is for a short term gain before the bust.
Number of active users (logging in at least once a month):
845,000,000 (eight hundred and forty five million)
Divide the first number by the second gives you the average value per user, because lets be honest without the user base, one could argue the company is pretty much value-less.
So, 100,000,000,000 / 845,000,000 = $118 average value per user!
Really? My login to facebook is worth that much?* Even if you cut down the suspected valuation to half that, its still close on $60 per user. Or if you go with the number of active daily users (which is the amount that the investors and advertisers are probably doing their sums with because thats who you'll be targeting your ads at), you get over $200 per user when using the hundred billion valuation.
I have a hunch that maybe that $100,000,000 is just a tad over inflated...
(* hypothetical question - I no longer have a facebook login.)
Number of active users (logging in at least once a month):
845,000,000 (eight hundred and forty five million)
Divide the first number by the second gives you the average value per user, because lets be honest without the user base, one could argue the company is pretty much value-less.
So, 100,000,000,000 / 845,000,000 = $118 average value per user!
Really? My login to facebook is worth that much?* Even if you cut down the suspected valuation to half that, its still close on $60 per user. Or if you go with the number of active daily users (which is the amount that the investors and advertisers are probably doing their sums with because thats who you'll be targeting your ads at), you get over $200 per user when using the hundred billion valuation.
I have a hunch that maybe that $100,000,000 is just a tad over inflated...
(* hypothetical question - I no longer have a facebook login.)
This has been discussed before. It is useful to do comparisons.
Google reportedly averages $27 in revenue per user. If FB were to get the same revenue per user, the $100 B figure would be 4 times revenues - or only 16 times earnings (if FB maintained its current margins). That is not at all out of line.
It's especially plausible when you consider that the average FB user spends FAR more time on FB than the average Google user spends on Google. Many people spend hours a day on FB, so it's not hard to imagine greater revenues per user if FB decides to be aggressive in commercializing the site.
Is $100 B (or $50 the right number? No one knows. In 2 years, it will be possible to look back and SOMEONE will be saying "I told you so". We just don't know which side yet.
Although I am all for sharing, I cannot believe people use Facebook. To me, it is more of 'hanging out your laundry, weather if it's clean or dirty'. It comes across as 'look what I did' because people like to show of. Telling the world how many vacations you had this year, what you bought etcetera, to me it's just a farce. Although there is obviously the 'connection people part' that it offers, I cannot understand what was wrong with (group)email to begin with.
I went to a concert with a friend and after we got into the (closed) arena he wanted to 'check-in' but was unable to get a signal. He wanted to leave the arena, get a arm-wrist or ink stamp, get outside, check into Facebook and get back in just so his friends would know he was at this concert. I asked him if this was really worth it because we would be way in the back of the arena because of this re-entry.
To me, FB is just crap, others love it. Especially advertisers, which is very understandable with the amount of information FB can sell them. I have no idea what FB sells, but the ads speak for themselves. Just like Google.
If I wan to communicate with people I call. That's personal, and if I want to 'group info' a whole bunch I mail. Am I getting old? I certainly cannot understand why this company should be worth billions of dollars.
Not all my FB opinions are negative, but most/some are:
Mark Zuckerberg certainly had a fantastic vision when creating this social network
Why would I 'automatically want to be friends with someone who replies to something I write on a friends' wall? Sure, that way FB gets to a 100 billion friendships, but are they really friends, or just people wanting to have as much connections as possible?
Zuckerberg had the word 'bitch' on his business card. I can understand you are feeling great and on top of the world when you start your own company, but really??
They don't seem to be doing anything about the 7+ million users who are under 13 years of age (minimum required)
Draw your own conclusions about the founder with below snippet from Wikipedia:
"Mark Zuckerberg wrote Facemash, the predecessor to Facebook, on October 28, 2003, while attending Harvard as a sophomore. According to The Harvard Crimson, the site was comparable to Hot or Not, and "used photos compiled from the online facebooks of nine houses, placing two next to each other at a time and asking users to choose the 'hotter' person. To accomplish this, Zuckerberg hacked into the protected areas of Harvard's computer network and copied the houses' private dormitory ID images. Harvard at that time did not have a student "facebook" (a directory with photos and basic information). Facemash attracted 450 visitors and 22,000 photo-views in its first four hours online."
He was charged, which was later on dropped.
People buying stock possibly find this interesting: Wikipedia link
Revenue
Most of Facebook's revenue comes from advertising. Microsoft is Facebook's exclusive partner for serving banner advertising, and therefore Facebook serves only advertisements that exist in Microsoft's advertisement inventory.
Facebook generally has a lower clickthrough rate (CTR) for advertisements than most major Web sites. According to BusinessWeek.com, banner advertisements on Facebook have generally received one-fifth the number of clicks compared to those on the Web as a whole, although specific comparisons can reveal a much larger disparity. For example, while Google users click on the first advertisement for search results an average of 8% of the time (80,000 clicks for every one million searches), Facebook's users click on advertisements an average of 0.04% of the time (400 clicks for every one million pages).
Comments
That's ok; I'm sure if it was Steve's new company; you would bet the farm and the Honda civic.
Ah, it wouldn't be a long-term short. I just want it to drop 10-15% in a couple of weeks (or days), then I'd pull the plug.
I know there are better gambling opportunities, but FB looks like a no-brainer for a really quick short. I'm certainly not betting the farm on FB. But if I can walk away with a couple of grand (pre-tax) in a week or two, I think it's worth it.
And no, I wouldn't bet the farm and the "Honda Civic" on Steve's new company. After all, I'm all about diversification.
Remember, I didn't buy the farm on AAPL either (a concept you seem to be unsurprisingly happy to deny).
No worries, keep it up, girlie!
Your vitriol and ad hominem attacks will definitely make you a vastly superior human being, someone worthy of answering in anonymous high tech rumor sites. Have a nice day!!!
I am highly tempted to short Facebook after the IPO.
Just wait for the nonsensical share price run-up, then short.
I dunno, I think people could be valuing Facebook at $50 billion. As much as I hate to say it, because companies around the world have adopted in en force, $5 billion is just a start.
Also, most people used to think Facebook made little profits. $1 billion is pretty significant.
You're confused about the percentage.
Facebook is only selling a small portion of its shares - I haven't dug far enough to get the information from a good source, but what I've found suggest that they're only selling 5% of their shares - so $5 B for the IPO (for 5% of the company) EQUALS a $100 B valuation.
(another source vaguely hinted that this would be for 10% of the company which would put the valuation at $50 B.
Ah okay, I stand corrected. So $100 billion valuation. Sounds on the high side, I was putting them at a ballpark of $50 billion. Still, $50-$100 billion valuation, like I said, it may piss you off, but that's the power of Facebook today.
Zuckerberg is full of shit.
He's a self-deluded idiot who runs a glorified ad network.
Zuckerberg is full of shit indeed... If it's a free service... YOU are the product.
Watch Apple bring out an awesome social networking program with all the bells and whistles. Watch as all those on paper millionaires blow their money on extravagant toys and then watch as the FB boom falls like a lead ball in pig urine.
The investors are going to say the fun and games are over nerds. Time to make the REAL PLAYAS money. Before you know it FB will start to come in different flavors. Where each flavor, like going in ascending numerical order, will offer more sh** than the proceeding flavor.
And of course the top tier flavors will cost and cost more.
Screw that!
FB's IPO is for a short term gain before the bust.
Suspected valuation of company:
$100,000,000,000 (one hundred billion dollars)
Number of active users (logging in at least once a month):
845,000,000 (eight hundred and forty five million)
Divide the first number by the second gives you the average value per user, because lets be honest without the user base, one could argue the company is pretty much value-less.
So, 100,000,000,000 / 845,000,000 = $118 average value per user!
Really? My login to facebook is worth that much?* Even if you cut down the suspected valuation to half that, its still close on $60 per user. Or if you go with the number of active daily users (which is the amount that the investors and advertisers are probably doing their sums with because thats who you'll be targeting your ads at), you get over $200 per user when using the hundred billion valuation.
I have a hunch that maybe that $100,000,000 is just a tad over inflated...
(* hypothetical question - I no longer have a facebook login.)
Lets look at two of the figures from that IPO:
Suspected valuation of company:
$100,000,000,000 (one hundred billion dollars)
Number of active users (logging in at least once a month):
845,000,000 (eight hundred and forty five million)
Divide the first number by the second gives you the average value per user, because lets be honest without the user base, one could argue the company is pretty much value-less.
So, 100,000,000,000 / 845,000,000 = $118 average value per user!
Really? My login to facebook is worth that much?* Even if you cut down the suspected valuation to half that, its still close on $60 per user. Or if you go with the number of active daily users (which is the amount that the investors and advertisers are probably doing their sums with because thats who you'll be targeting your ads at), you get over $200 per user when using the hundred billion valuation.
I have a hunch that maybe that $100,000,000 is just a tad over inflated...
(* hypothetical question - I no longer have a facebook login.)
This has been discussed before. It is useful to do comparisons.
Google reportedly averages $27 in revenue per user. If FB were to get the same revenue per user, the $100 B figure would be 4 times revenues - or only 16 times earnings (if FB maintained its current margins). That is not at all out of line.
It's especially plausible when you consider that the average FB user spends FAR more time on FB than the average Google user spends on Google. Many people spend hours a day on FB, so it's not hard to imagine greater revenues per user if FB decides to be aggressive in commercializing the site.
Is $100 B (or $50
I went to a concert with a friend and after we got into the (closed) arena he wanted to 'check-in' but was unable to get a signal. He wanted to leave the arena, get a arm-wrist or ink stamp, get outside, check into Facebook and get back in just so his friends would know he was at this concert. I asked him if this was really worth it because we would be way in the back of the arena because of this re-entry.
To me, FB is just crap, others love it. Especially advertisers, which is very understandable with the amount of information FB can sell them. I have no idea what FB sells, but the ads speak for themselves. Just like Google.
If I wan to communicate with people I call. That's personal, and if I want to 'group info' a whole bunch I mail. Am I getting old? I certainly cannot understand why this company should be worth billions of dollars.
Not all my FB opinions are negative, but most/some are:
- Mark Zuckerberg certainly had a fantastic vision when creating this social network
- Why would I 'automatically want to be friends with someone who replies to something I write on a friends' wall? Sure, that way FB gets to a 100 billion friendships, but are they really friends, or just people wanting to have as much connections as possible?
- Zuckerberg had the word 'bitch' on his business card. I can understand you are feeling great and on top of the world when you start your own company, but really??
- They don't seem to be doing anything about the 7+ million users who are under 13 years of age (minimum required)
Draw your own conclusions about the founder with below snippet from Wikipedia:"Mark Zuckerberg wrote Facemash, the predecessor to Facebook, on October 28, 2003, while attending Harvard as a sophomore. According to The Harvard Crimson, the site was comparable to Hot or Not, and "used photos compiled from the online facebooks of nine houses, placing two next to each other at a time and asking users to choose the 'hotter' person. To accomplish this, Zuckerberg hacked into the protected areas of Harvard's computer network and copied the houses' private dormitory ID images. Harvard at that time did not have a student "facebook" (a directory with photos and basic information). Facemash attracted 450 visitors and 22,000 photo-views in its first four hours online."
He was charged, which was later on dropped.
People buying stock possibly find this interesting: Wikipedia link
Revenue
Most of Facebook's revenue comes from advertising. Microsoft is Facebook's exclusive partner for serving banner advertising, and therefore Facebook serves only advertisements that exist in Microsoft's advertisement inventory.
Facebook generally has a lower clickthrough rate (CTR) for advertisements than most major Web sites. According to BusinessWeek.com, banner advertisements on Facebook have generally received one-fifth the number of clicks compared to those on the Web as a whole, although specific comparisons can reveal a much larger disparity. For example, while Google users click on the first advertisement for search results an average of 8% of the time (80,000 clicks for every one million searches), Facebook's users click on advertisements an average of 0.04% of the time (400 clicks for every one million pages).
Sorry for the rant. Why so few posts; only 29(?).
Cheers,
PhilBoogie