Analyst cuts AAPL rating on iPhone subsidy backlash, estimates $1B earnings miss

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 94
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,428member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    He's not saying whose fault it is, he's saying that it won't go on forever and when it does stop, it's Apple that sells less phones. I think it's eventually true but I think he's a bit early on this prediction.



    Historically Apple seem to keep well timed new cards up their sleeves when products start to reach saturation, even being willing to cannibalize them.



    I fully expect we will all be here in the future, talking about the tear away success of another Apple product filling in and compensating for iPhone sales decline when that day finally arrives.
  • Reply 62 of 94
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ghostface147 View Post


    Analyst blah blah blah. All I know is that I am used to a new subsidized iPhone each year, every year. If this changes, it'd suck. I am ready for The New iPhone this fall, but I happened to check my upgrade date yesterday and the upgrade date is May 2013. Screw that.....



    I'm ready to get off that treadmill. Now that it's possible to get a regional carrier (which uses the AT&T network, so I won't lose any coverage) at a deeply discounted price with no subsidy, I'm going that way.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by KingKuei View Post


    The iPhone subsidy isn't outrageous and given what the carriers charge for data, it's clear that they're doing just great with their current pricing.



    I'm paying $150 for two lines with limited data (2 GB on one line and 150 or 250 MB on the other). For $90, I can get two lines on Straight Talk with unlimited data. So I save $60 per month or $1440 over 2 years.



    I can buy a new iPhone for $700 and sell my old one for about $300. My daughter's phone is about $400 and the old one will sell for perhaps $100. So my net cost is $600, saving me $840 over 2 years. Heck, even if I replace the phones EVERY year, I come out ahead.



    Only 2 more months until my AT&T contract expires.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by uguysrnuts View Post


    This is how Apple laughs back-



    Apple market cap: $593B

    share price: $636



    MS market cap: $260B

    share price: $31



    I like Apple's version better.



    You forgot a few:

    AT&T market cap: $182 B

    Verizon market cap: $106 B

    BITG Research market cap: $17.52
  • Reply 63 of 94
    dbtincdbtinc Posts: 134member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cameronj View Post


    He's not saying whose fault it is, he's saying that it won't go on forever and when it does stop, it's Apple that sells less phones. I think it's eventually true but I think he's a bit early on this prediction.



    Technologically, the iPhones are failing behind but thanks to poor marketing on the part of Android and the market fractionation of manufacturers, Apple has been spared - for the moment. Life cycles happen and it will happen to Apple as well.
  • Reply 64 of 94
    I actually concur with him.



    When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.



    I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.
  • Reply 65 of 94
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post


    I actually concur with him.



    When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.



    I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.



    Thanks for that. I can't speak for everyone but I'd say that most of us have never heard this perspective before.
  • Reply 66 of 94
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post


    I actually concur with him.



    When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.



    I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.



    Given that the statistics seem to demonstrate otherwise in terms of sales, your example doesn't have legs to stand on, moreover the track record of this analyst is very poor. In this same article the analyst retracted his $600 predicted cap for Apple stock price after it was overrun thoroughly. The rest of your statements reflect only your personal preference, not an accurate picture of the market. So you support the premise of a proven incompetent analyst and see that as a wise thing?



    Perhaps you can post for us pictures of you holding that massive slab up to your face while talking on the phone? Also reminding myself to buy stock in stylus companies as the predicted resurgence of resistive/capacitative stylus use driven by the Galaxy Note will take the market by storm!
  • Reply 67 of 94
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CaptMatt View Post


    I actually concur with him.



    When looking for a new phone, the 4s just wasn't appealing to me. I went with a Galaxy Note and I'm very happy with it. I was surprised at how happy I was with it (and still am). Android has come a long way. There's a good bit of competition. iOS isn't the game changer it once was.



    I know many others who have also jumped ship from iOS to Android. I suspect we're going to see a leveling off and even decline of iPhone sales. Probably the carrier decisions aren't made in a vacuum but with the knowledge that lots of customers are happy with Android phones so iPhone doesn't have the same leverage as before.



    The problem with his analysis is that what you're describing has been going on since the beginning. Apple has always lost a few customers to Android (and to other vendors). Android has lost customers to Apple. Historically, Apple's customer retention has been extremely high and the analyst has not presented any evidence suggesting that it has changed.



    Now, the analyst is claiming something different. He's claiming that:

    1. The carriers are suddenly unhappy with subsidizing phones.

    2. Somehow the carriers' unhappiness will cause Apple's sales to decline.



    It's interesting to note that he has no evidence for either of those claims.
  • Reply 68 of 94
    alexmitalexmit Posts: 112member
    EVERYONE IS NOW GREEDY IN CORPORATE AMERICA... Story at 11.

    I'm surprised this hasn't been more prominent. It's a mystery of the completely obvious.
  • Reply 69 of 94
    relicrelic Posts: 4,735member
    I don't understand why you guys keep posting news like this. Every time it's the same responses they don't know what their talking about, Apple is invincible, no one else has products that even come close, they should fire the guy, who do those people think they are, ect.



    I just want the stock to split again. We bought 1,000 shares at 14 back in 2001 and have not sold since. After the split in 2005 we received 2,000 shares, we've bought 500 more shares since then and now own 2500. Needless to say we've made a total investment of just about 30,000 dollars. Nothing compared to what the stock has netted us today. Unfortunately it looks like we're going to have to liquidate half of it to pay for medical bills for me and to pay off our house. Which will makes us completely debt clean. Which is what I want if I go. Whatever is left over I want to reinvest into Nokia. That's another stock that is about to take off again, so is Samsung.
  • Reply 70 of 94
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,774member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    The problem with his analysis is that what you're describing has been going on since the beginning. Apple has always lost a few customers to Android (and to other vendors). Android has lost customers to Apple. Historically, Apple's customer retention has been extremely high and the analyst has not presented any evidence suggesting that it has changed.



    Now, the analyst is claiming something different. He's claiming that:

    1. The carriers are suddenly unhappy with subsidizing phones.

    2. Somehow the carriers' unhappiness will cause Apple's sales to decline.



    It's interesting to note that he has no evidence for either of those claims.



    And if he did he wouldn't him trading the stock be insider trading. I know several people who switched to Android and ultimately ended up with iPhones again.
  • Reply 71 of 94
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,774member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dbtinc View Post


    Technologically, the iPhones are failing behind but thanks to poor marketing on the part of Android and the market fractionation of manufacturers, Apple has been spared - for the moment. Life cycles happen and it will happen to Apple as well.



    In what way?
  • Reply 72 of 94
    Quite the bubble mentality here! Apple certainly isn't going to collapse, but the days of making easy money with that stock are gone.



    If you'd like an example of "bubble mentality" consider this article: http://www.investorelite.com/article...ousing-bubble/



    My favorite quote from the article: "Want to know how bad the housing bubble is going to get? Look around you right now, today December 30th 2005 is as bad as it?s going to get."



    The almost complete denial of any weakness to the stock is classic bubble mentality. At this point new Apple investors are only lining the pockets of existing shareholders.
  • Reply 73 of 94
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Relic View Post


    Whatever is left over I want to reinvest into Nokia. That's another stock that is about to take off again, so is Samsung.



    Ditto!
  • Reply 74 of 94
    Money talks (profits), b*lls*it walks (analysts)



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Misa View Post


    CNBC is apparently the Fox News of the Business news channels. I can't back it up, but when I watch twitter for AAPL , apparently CNBC moves markets, often in the opposite direction. Bloomberg on the other hand doesn't move the market when they have people on that talk about AAPL.



    The AAPL pattern is, up on monday and tuesday, down on wednesday, thursday, and then the last 30 minutes of friday is a market-correction to push up or down below weekly option expiry. When the analysts were predicting unicorns and rainbows to make AAPL "miss" it didn't even miss it's own numbers, just the analysts numbers. Yet the stock price went down to the 200DMA and then shot straight back up 4 weeks before Janurary's earnings. Talk about no confidence in supposed weakness.



    So it's pretty safe to say that the Analysts are just making guesses. If anything, AT&T would have deserved the downgrade if that was in fact what AT&T was considering doing. This is a non-event. Ultimately what you'll see is that wireless companies will raise the price of the phone, or stop subsidizing using their own money (As in requiring more expensive post-paid plans.)



  • Reply 75 of 94
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Relic View Post


    I don't understand why you guys keep posting news like this. Every time it's the same responses they don't know what their talking about, Apple is invincible, no one else has products that even come close, they should fire the guy, who do those people think they are, ect.



    That is, of course, total nonsense.



    When someone posts a legitimate, well-supported complaint about Apple, it is readily accepted. It is the endless FUD that people spread with no evidence and no basis in facts that gets flamed.
  • Reply 76 of 94
    1 - Too true.



    2 - Android folks here may not like that statement.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post




    1- And if he did he wouldn't him trading the stock be insider trading.



    2 - I know several people who switched to Android and ultimately ended up with iPhones again.



  • Reply 77 of 94
    robin huberrobin huber Posts: 3,517member
    Apple up $3.79 at this point today. Sounds like the market is voting with its feet.
  • Reply 78 of 94
    What a crappy way to make a living. Pay must be good, though.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mdriftmeyer View Post


    Paid shill for the Telcos lowers Apple's rating. Very transparent.



  • Reply 79 of 94
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Robin Huber View Post


    Apple up $3.79 at this point today. Sounds like the market is voting with its feet.



    Up $0.07 now.
  • Reply 80 of 94
    "...which will leave Apple with less iPhone sales..."



    It's "fewer", not "less".



    Either way, Piecyk is still wrong.
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