The guy who doesn't know a thing about Stocks (self admitted) sticking his nose in with a bearish sentiment that he knows nothing about, again.
Let me spell it out for you: F.U.N.D.A.M.E.N.T.A.L.S.
Do you know that AAPL trades at bargain basement prices for a company that has been growing almost 100% year over year? Do you know that they can buy entire Countries with their hoard of cash? Do you know that they have no debt? Do you know what a P/E ratio is? Do you know that AAPL trades at a Forward P/E of around 12? Do you know that that's much less than the average ho-hum Company on the S&P? Do you know that they just issued a Dividend? Do you know that they are still very much a growth company?
If you do know so, then you'd know that the bearish sentiments are wrong, because they're not backed up by any fundamental logic in any which way.
I was making a satirical point about how analyst comments on here are lauded when they say what you want to hear and lambasted when they say what you don?t want to hear, regardless of the veracity of their reasoning. Clearly my sense of humour was lost on you.
As for the remainder of your arguments I simply do not believe or accept a word you say because to put it blunting YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
Well... It might not be a crystal ball, and long term is harder to project than near term, but given certain inputs you can make reasonable projections to where things will go.
When we hit un-charted territory (such as the mythical $1,000 price point for the stock), all bets are off. If you look at some of the unaffiliated analysts, you can see a bit less rosy tone in the better ones these days. I'd suggest taking a look at this analysis: http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/
I constantly hear people say that playing the stock market is the same as gambling. I've never seen it that way. In gambling one throw of the dice can wipe you out and the house definitely aint going to give you your money back. With stocks you've always got the hope that a losing stock will go back up again... or at the very least you can sell at a a loss but you still have money remaining in your pocket.
... but AAPL aint no loser... so I don't see how it could be compared to gambling at all.
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
Why did you use my post to underline your statement?
My post had nothing to do with the collapse of Apple, being an iHater or anything close to what you are trying to say.
I was asked when the next set of news would take place that would take AAPL significantly off its high and it was fairly obvious, even in January, that if any seemingly negative news would come out then it would be near the April quarterly announcement... and, sure enough, AAPL dropped $75 off its high with just a bit of negative news.
... and I still think it could drop again next week.
But don't forget... I'm also the person who said that anyone buying at this time will make money even if it drops to $500 over the coming months. I honestly believe that Apple will sell 50 million phones in the holiday quarter, and that, if anything, will drive the price to at least $700.
I find it amazing that whenever people point to technicals and the recent price history of the AAPL stock for the absolute and definitive proof that it indeed is overvalued, they conveniently seem to forget the revenue and profit increase in the same period? As if the stock price is somehow totally disconnected from the performance of the actual company.
I bet that if you overlay that particular graph on the stock price graph you would actually come to the conclusion (like many of us) that it is actually *still* undervalued.
Does anyone know why this way of looking at Apples recent success/valuation seem to be so popular? I.e as if the market rules that apply to every other listed consumer electronics company on earth does not somehow apply to Apple?
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
As an investor you'll find this article on Mark Gorton a worthy read:
"Gorton is a high-frequency trader. His company, Tower Research Capital LLC, with its 275-person global staff of engineers and computer science and physics majors, is part of an industry that today is responsible for more than half of all stock trading in the United States, according to the Tabb Group, a financial markets research and strategic advisory firm. Gorton's is an industry under scrutiny. "
I know that you happen to be among the few who can trade back and forth in choppy waters,, living on an island and all. I did read your previous analysis, it makes sense even to me. I just cannot trade that way ( don't know how) so my blunt strategy is to stay long as long as it makes sense. I just hate seeing the other longs in here get stampeded out of their holdings. BTW, thanks for your analysis. I may actually learn something.
I know that you happen to be among the few who can trade back and forth in choppy waters,, living on an island and all. I did read your previous analysis, it makes sense even to me. I just cannot trade that way ( don't know how) so my blunt strategy is to stay long as long as it makes sense. I just hate seeing the other longs in here get stampeded out of their holdings. BTW, thanks for your analysis. I may actually learn something.
You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.
At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.
I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.
You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.
At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.
I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.
Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)
Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)
on edit: Sorry... you're right... in a way.
The truth of the matter. I'm feeling very jittery about the entire market. I just want out.
BTW - why would I sell a covered call if I thought that AAPL was going to head down closer to $500? ... and then at the same time, the chance that the stock could go to over $700 as GS is predicting?
Too much volatility... too many options at this point.... imho
Comments
The guy who doesn't know a thing about Stocks (self admitted) sticking his nose in with a bearish sentiment that he knows nothing about, again.
Let me spell it out for you: F.U.N.D.A.M.E.N.T.A.L.S.
Do you know that AAPL trades at bargain basement prices for a company that has been growing almost 100% year over year? Do you know that they can buy entire Countries with their hoard of cash? Do you know that they have no debt? Do you know what a P/E ratio is? Do you know that AAPL trades at a Forward P/E of around 12? Do you know that that's much less than the average ho-hum Company on the S&P? Do you know that they just issued a Dividend? Do you know that they are still very much a growth company?
If you do know so, then you'd know that the bearish sentiments are wrong, because they're not backed up by any fundamental logic in any which way.
I was making a satirical point about how analyst comments on here are lauded when they say what you want to hear and lambasted when they say what you don?t want to hear, regardless of the veracity of their reasoning. Clearly my sense of humour was lost on you.
As for the remainder of your arguments I simply do not believe or accept a word you say because to put it blunting YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
YOU DON'T HAVE A FUCKING CHRYSTAL BALL SO YOU DON'T KNOW ANYMORE THAN THE REST OF US WHAT THE FUCKING SHARE PRICE IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
Well... It might not be a crystal ball, and long term is harder to project than near term, but given certain inputs you can make reasonable projections to where things will go.
When we hit un-charted territory (such as the mythical $1,000 price point for the stock), all bets are off. If you look at some of the unaffiliated analysts, you can see a bit less rosy tone in the better ones these days. I'd suggest taking a look at this analysis: http://aaplmodel.blogspot.com/
I though that was just called a market correction or more likely profit taking....
What specifically about this is news worthy????
J.
And up again. Gambling has that kind of pattern.
J.
I constantly hear people say that playing the stock market is the same as gambling. I've never seen it that way. In gambling one throw of the dice can wipe you out and the house definitely aint going to give you your money back. With stocks you've always got the hope that a losing stock will go back up again... or at the very least you can sell at a a loss but you still have money remaining in your pocket.
... but AAPL aint no loser... so I don't see how it could be compared to gambling at all.
jmho
Just to remind the clown who doubted what I was saying...
http://forums.appleinsider.com/showp...8&postcount=31
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
Yep, you got that right.
And AAPL is now up MORE (+29.57) than it went down yesterday (-25.10). We've listened the entire day to pundits' explanations of why AAPL is doomed, why the end is near. From the WSJ to Forbes to Time, the talking heads have been pontificating, bloviating, prognosticating, and generally farting from the mouth. The iHaters were on their knees praying to their gods that it was true.
Oops! False alarm in the AAPL collapse department.
Why did you use my post to underline your statement?
My post had nothing to do with the collapse of Apple, being an iHater or anything close to what you are trying to say.
I was asked when the next set of news would take place that would take AAPL significantly off its high and it was fairly obvious, even in January, that if any seemingly negative news would come out then it would be near the April quarterly announcement... and, sure enough, AAPL dropped $75 off its high with just a bit of negative news.
... and I still think it could drop again next week.
But don't forget... I'm also the person who said that anyone buying at this time will make money even if it drops to $500 over the coming months. I honestly believe that Apple will sell 50 million phones in the holiday quarter, and that, if anything, will drive the price to at least $700.
I find it amazing that whenever people point to technicals and the recent price history of the AAPL stock for the absolute and definitive proof that it indeed is overvalued, they conveniently seem to forget the revenue and profit increase in the same period? As if the stock price is somehow totally disconnected from the performance of the actual company.
I bet that if you overlay that particular graph on the stock price graph you would actually come to the conclusion (like many of us) that it is actually *still* undervalued.
Does anyone know why this way of looking at Apples recent success/valuation seem to be so popular? I.e as if the market rules that apply to every other listed consumer electronics company on earth does not somehow apply to Apple?
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.
If you know anything about Apple ..SNIP...
if you look at the last 5 years, you'll see a pretty fast rise in stock price since 2008 Dec. As deserved at it might have been, that could not continue forever. Then starting Dec 2011 you see this massive spike in the price. It's like the housing bubble all over again. My prediction is that AAPL will probably level off if we don't see any new products for the rest of the year and it will probably slowly level off at around 400, where it should have been right about now if it weren't for this spike you see over the past 6 months.
Horse manure.
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.
PREACH ON BROTHAAAAA!!
Word to the wise.
There ya go. You got the picture. Anybody here, if you are holding AAPL long, you got to STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE TECHNICAL TRADERS' NETS!!!!!!!
They got a million chart 'pictures' they can refer to, ( rationalize their crazy ideas with) and unless YOU are a day trader watching charts they will snare you. Don't sell stock based on their doom and gloom. How many cycles of this shit have I seen??? FIVE YEARS worth at least.. Yeah, apple can't go any higher because it's entered a reverse parabolic on the charts and 10 news stories, and I look and all of you here on AI are glum asking why did I buy any apple products? sheesh.
The technical traders were blabbing around beginning of last week that they wanted to buy into AAPL but only at around $570 or so. Well, you know what? They got algorithms they know how to fire off, and DAMN if it didn't go down to 573. That was the new resistance level. Its always fairly close to what they wanted. Then what happened? Well, the technical traders got their 'number' so...APPL shot straight back up to 607.
Don't listen to technical traders. You can't play their game. They said pretty damn near the same thing at $529, it fell and came back. You could sell into their game and never see that number again to buy back into the stock.
Look at the fundamentals, the store traffic, the products, and stay LONG if you are long. There are very few places where it's kinda obvious you could buy and sell trades. The last really obvious one was right before the Xmas quarter, when the slingshot was pulled so far back, the price was so low, and you could clearly see the momentum on the new SIRI iPhone etc=monster holiday quarter. You could have bought and sold extra then. The rest is stuff you can't catch. The technical traders will always have a faster connection than you and be controlling more of the story. Now the story is... It was all TAXES....
End of rant.
If you say so...
"Gorton is a high-frequency trader. His company, Tower Research Capital LLC, with its 275-person global staff of engineers and computer science and physics majors, is part of an industry that today is responsible for more than half of all stock trading in the United States, according to the Tabb Group, a financial markets research and strategic advisory firm. Gorton's is an industry under scrutiny. "
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...n_1429935.html
If you say so...
You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.
At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.
I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.
You are right... the traders are going to have their day with AAPL over the next few months and it will make a few longs question their holdings. I don't have the stomach for holding after I've made a few bucks. The markets are just too volatile right now.
At the end of the day, though, imho AAPL will rise into the $700 to $750 range... but maybe not until the next holiday quarter is announced.
I don't have the software capabilities that the big traders have and for that reason I am out of AAPL for a while. I believe it will eventually sink back to the low 500s before it heads higher, even if it goes higher over the next month or so (but I don't think it will). If I get knocked out of the game then so be it... even though I didn't catch the absolute high I've still got a little bit to go before that happens... regardless, I'll stay out.
Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh
Just out of curiosity, why not options? Your logic would justify selling covered calls and holding on to your position. (I don't agree with your logic, but if there is an earnings disappointment I can imagine how it would be possible.)
on edit: Sorry... you're right... in a way.
The truth of the matter. I'm feeling very jittery about the entire market. I just want out.
BTW - why would I sell a covered call if I thought that AAPL was going to head down closer to $500? ... and then at the same time, the chance that the stock could go to over $700 as GS is predicting?
Too much volatility... too many options at this point.... imho