Concerns over iPhone activation totals at AT&T & Verizon seen as overblown

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 60


    If you take into account that smartphones are starting to approach the flattening of the adoption curve in the US, the carrier numbers make sense. That is going to play into the activation rates, and soften the numbers here. Elsewhere, adoption in China for example will continue to increase for some time as China strives to build out a robust "middle class" to reinforce their economy.


     


    I hazard that with the slowing of adoption, saturation will start causing shifts in the market percentages between Android and iOS. And while major geekophiles such as BW above are largely feature-driven, with a soft economy continuing for the foreseeable future, consumers will remain conservative and go for the best value and reliability, arguably this rests with the iPhone and the high-end Android/Samsumg devices. As for consumers needing mo/betta features, to differentiate models, just the opposite has been seen to be true - look how long Blackberry users were stuck with a handful of models and the marketshare RIM enjoyed until iPhone/Android shook the basket.


     


    With 70% or better of the Apple stock in institutional funds, I see this as preannouncement selloff/rebalance - and an opportunity to buy low prior to the quarterly results.


     

  • Reply 22 of 60
    shompashompa Posts: 343member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jason98 View Post



    It will only get worse in q2 and q3 unless they are back to June release cycle.


     


    The only thing Apple needs to do is add more colors to the Iphone.



    Steve Jobs Apple saw Iphone as a software platform. The consumer experience. That is why every single Iphone so far have gotten a new iOS. It would be a Tim Cook Apple if they released a new phone without an iOS.


     


    Steve Jobs Apple did not ship crap. That is why they always had a 3 month beta period of iOS. Android just push out its updates, and let the users be live beta testers. Maybe Tim Cook Apple accepts that users beta test iOS live on a new phone. 


     


    I am sad over how much Apple have changed since Steve got his last medical leave early 2011. Apple is repeating every single mistake that they made last time Steve left.  Starting to bump hardware specs just to keep some internet nerds happy would be another step in the wrong direction. 

  • Reply 23 of 60
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bullhead View Post





    Ok, you seem to understand a phone is all about software.

    Nope, you really do not get it. While the cloner companies push spec sheets, Apple pushes features. Some may be hardware, but mostly features are software. Software is what truly makes phones unique.


     




    So that's why all these rumor sites and the tech blogs spend so much time on hardware rumors?  I mean good grief, there was a story just yesterday about a minor change to the home button.  When's the last time we've heard any rumors or had any good discussions about what iOS 6 will look like and what the new features will be?  As far as I'm concerned the current hardware design is great (though I would be OK with a slightly bigger screen), but iOS could use changes.  Yet I rarely see news items on the blogs/rumor sites about iOS.  It's all about the new phone being liquid metal or using in cell screen technology.  Seems to me people are more obsessed with what the new iPhone will look like than what software changes there might be.

  • Reply 24 of 60


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by fecklesstechguy View Post


    If you take into account that smartphones are starting to approach the flattening of the adoption curve in the US, the carrier numbers make sense. 



     


    How do you justify that "fact"?  I've seen no evidence that smartphones are starting ot approach the flattening of the adoption curve.


     


    Smartphone-Penetration.gif

  • Reply 25 of 60


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post


     


     


    Looking at the volume numbers, a lot of people had that very thought on April 10, and have lost huge amounts of money.  Billions of dollars so far.



     


    Only if you were stupid enough to buy high and sell low.


     


    But then, I guess it takes all kinds..... 

  • Reply 26 of 60
    shompashompa Posts: 343member


    In US the iphone is heavy subsidized. About 400 dollar per phone. More and more countries are leaving this model and instead offer cheaper service/data. AT&T is also notorious for having to few base stations, about 1/3 of the recomeded cell density. The money spent on subsidized phones could pay for a better/working network. I belive that the consumers loose with the subsidice. Here in Sweden I pay 10 dollar/month for 5 gig data. (and when the 5 gig is used, I still can access the net, but only at 384kbit.


     


    Customers should see the real price of the phones since the prices are highly inflated. Just look at Ipad. It costs almost 200 less then an Iphone, and the parts on the Ipad is more expensive.


     


     

  • Reply 27 of 60
    bullheadbullhead Posts: 493member
    rogifan wrote: »
    <p>  </p><div class="quote-container"> <span>Quote:</span> <div class="quote-block"> Originally Posted by <strong>bullhead</strong> <a href="/t/149569/concerns-over-iphone-activation-totals-at-at-t-verizon-seen-as-overblown#post_2100043"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <br /> <br /> Ok, you seem to understand a phone is all about software.<br /> Nope, you really do not get it. While the cloner companies push spec sheets, Apple pushes features. Some may be hardware, but mostly features are software. Software is what truly makes phones unique.</div></div><p>  </p><p> <br /> So that's why all these rumor sites and the tech blogs spend so much time on hardware rumors?  I mean good grief, there was a story just yesterday about a minor change to the home button.  When's the last time we've heard any rumors or had any good discussions about what iOS 6 will look like and what the new features will be?  As far as I'm concerned the current hardware design is great (though I would be OK with a slightly bigger screen), but iOS could use changes.  Yet I rarely see news items on the blogs/rumor sites about iOS.  It's all about the new phone being liquid metal or using in cell screen technology.  Seems to me people are more obsessed with what the new iPhone will look like than what software changes there might be.</p>

    Are these the same blogger sites which say Microsoft Windows Phone is good? hardware is a small portion of what makes and Apple products great. It has always been about the software with a sprinkle of hardware mixed in. Spec sheets are not what Apple does, they have software as the major differentiator now. Everyone is copying Apples hardware, but no one has come close to the software. iOS is still way ahead of all the other mobile OS'es out there.
  • Reply 28 of 60
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    No, not really. And good luck thinking they're going back to June.



     


    Agreed. This fall cycle is almost certainly set for the foreseeable future. And it makes sense. WWDC was created as a software event and then turned into an iPhone event plus a few things about software. It tied Apple to a calendar the same as MacWorld did, which they don't like since they don't control the components etc. By yanking the phone from WWDC they can bring the focus back to the the software and take off the stress to get the hardware ready by then. They will preview the things that will be leaked by the software because they want to be the first to state the facts and the rest they leave for Sept/Oct. 


     


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post


    The say this the day before a result? Haha!!



     


    Typical. Doom and gloom for the week or so before an earnings to short the stock and buy it low. Then when they announce crazy good earnings the value goes up and you make some money. Given the fondness for releasing updated hardware if not flat out new stuff within a couple of weeks of an earnings statement if they hang onto it for a couple of months they could make even more. 


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Sasparilla View Post


    Its important to remember, in relation to AT&T numbers, that AT&T in January stopped allowing customers to upgrade their iPhone's at a reduced price (I think $200) before their contract was up 



     


    Yep. And remember that many folks wouldn't even be eligible for that halfway until June because they bought in June. You had a lot of June 2011 ready to upgrades wait for the new hardware plus probably a lot of newcomers, the folks that before were allowed to halfway AND it was the holidays. All of that will inflate sales for the quarter of the launch. But now folks have to wait for their 'full' eligibility so that's later this year if not 2013.  


     


    Quote:



    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post


     


     


    really? why is my wife's iphone eligible after only 18 months? 


     


     



     


    They are talking about the halfway. Before January, they would split the difference with you. 


     


    So after like 10-11 months you could upgrade your wife's iPhone for a $200 subsidy. Now they aren't doing that. 


     


    And I would expect them to slowly reign in the full dates. Slide it to more of 20 months at the earliest for the unlimited everything folks and the full 24 for those baseline everything folks. 


     

  • Reply 29 of 60


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


     


     


    Only if you were stupid enough to buy high and sell low.


     


    But then, I guess it takes all kinds..... 



     


    There are enough of those kinds of people to help other people become very very rich...

  • Reply 30 of 60
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post


     


     


    Apple has excellent hardware.  If not for the software, a lot of folks would be very happy with Apple products.  



     


    So what is wrong with the software? Be specific.




    This should be interesting. Or more of zzzzzzzz.......'s FUD.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post


     


     


    Looking at the volume numbers, a lot of people had that very thought on April 10, and have lost huge amounts of money.  Billions of dollars so far.



     


    Only if they sold at a lower price.

  • Reply 31 of 60


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post


     


     


    Looking at the volume numbers, a lot of people had that very thought on April 10, and have lost huge amounts of money.  Billions of dollars so far.



     


    Only if you were stupid enough to buy high and sell low.


     


    But then, I guess it takes all kinds..... 



     


     


    Again, looking at the volume numbers, a lot of people bought at the high.  Those people have lost money, whether or not they have realized their losses is a separate point.


     


    Let's not argue over whether a loss is a a loss before one has realized it.  Lots of people lost their shirts in 2001, but many of them still own the same shares.


     


    Their net worth has gone down.  They have lost money.  That is a legit manner of speaking.

  • Reply 32 of 60


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by I am a Zither Zather Zuzz View Post


     


     


    Apple has excellent hardware.  If not for the software, a lot of folks would be very happy with Apple products.  



     


    So what is wrong with the software? Be specific.




    This should be interesting. Or more of zzzzzzzz.......'s FUD.


     


     



     


    Many people dislike iOS due to its launcher.  Rows of icons is less to their taste than Android's way of doing it.  Additionally, certain functionality is missing from stock iOS, which inspires many people to jailbreak.  Those people like the iPhone hardware, but feel that the software needs modification.


     


    WRT OSX, there are many Windows software suites that people prefer to the Mac equivalent.  Indeed, many people run 


    windows on a Mac to overcome this limitation of OSX.


     

  • Reply 33 of 60
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by bullhead View Post





    Are these the same blogger sites which say Microsoft Windows Phone is good? hardware is a small portion of what makes and Apple products great. It has always been about the software with a sprinkle of hardware mixed in. Spec sheets are not what Apple does, they have software as the major differentiator now. Everyone is copying Apples hardware, but no one has come close to the software. iOS is still way ahead of all the other mobile OS'es out there.


     


    If hardware is such a small portion why does it take up so much space here and elsewhere?  Why are people obsessed with what the new iPhone will look like and how big the screen will be?  Where's the obsession over what great new features will be in iOS 6?  I guarantee you there will be wide spread disappointment if the new iPhone looks anything like the current iPhone, even if iOS 6 is a complete redesign with amazing new features years ahead of Android.

  • Reply 34 of 60
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    The error that investors are making today, which some analysts are saying are wrong, is that they are taking the drop in iPhone sales all by itself, without looking at the true situation. Some of that's been covered here. Some hasn't.

    It's a dual whammy this quarter. First, as has been noted, the phone was new. There is always a bit of a drop in new phone sales the quarter after, though the older phone sales partly make up for it. Secondly, it came out during the December quarter, traditionally the busiest one for Apple, and the last quarter which followed it, is also traditionally the slowest for Apple.

    So iPhone sales took a fair hit last quarter, as should have been expected. But that's here in the US, after our holiday and shopping season. We should see that to a lessor extent in Europe as well. But in areas of the world that don't celebrate the Christian holidays to any significant extent, the December quarter isn't as meaningful, and the last quarter should have a bigger impact.

    I think what matters most here in the US, is that Verizon announced that iPhones made up more than 50% of their smartphone sales, despite their being the main Android sales outlet. It wasn't until they came up the the Droid name and marketing that Android became a major seller here. With iPhone sales still being about a year old there, and with only two of the three models available, for it to have captured over 50% of smartphone sales should be a reason for financial people to look positively towards those numbers, not negatively.

    With AT&T, the situation is somewhat different, as they are the original seller of iPhones, and didn't have much of an Android presence until a bit more than a year ago. But they've been marketing WP7 phones since October 2011 to little response, and iPhone sales this past quarter were 78.5% of smartphone sales, showing that iPhones haven't dropped as a percentage of smartphone sales there, and may possibly have increased.

    Sprint, which doesn't usually announce breakdowns between differing smartphone platform sales likely has a percentage similar to Verizon's. Even T-Mobile has said, a quarter ago that there were over a million iPhones on their network, even though they can only work over Edge.

    A great ado over nothing.
  • Reply 35 of 60
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    <p>  </p><div class="quote-container"> <span>Quote:</span> <div class="quote-block"> Originally Posted by <strong>jragosta</strong> <a href="/t/149569/concerns-over-iphone-activation-totals-at-at-t-verizon-seen-as-overblown#post_2100118"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <br /> <p>  </p> <div class="quote-container"> <span>Quote:</span> <div class="quote-block"> Originally Posted by <strong>I am a Zither Zather Zuzz</strong> <a href="/t/149569/concerns-over-iphone-activation-totals-at-at-t-verizon-seen-as-overblown#post_2100089"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <br /> <p>  </p> <p>  </p> <p> Apple has excellent hardware.  If not for the software, a lot of folks would be very happy with Apple products.  </p> </div> </div> <p>  </p> <p> So what is wrong with the software? Be specific.</p> <p> <br /> This should be interesting. Or more of zzzzzzzz.......'s FUD.</p> <p>  </p> <div class="quote-container">  </div> </div></div><p>  </p><p> Many people dislike iOS due to its launcher.  Rows of icons is less to their taste than Android's way of doing it.  Additionally, certain functionality is missing from stock iOS, which inspires many people to jailbreak.  Those people like the iPhone hardware, but feel that the software needs modification.</p><p>  </p><p> WRT OSX, there are many Windows software suites that people prefer to the Mac equivalent.  Indeed, many people run </p><p> windows on a Mac to overcome this limitation of OSX.</p><p>  </p>

    Some people don't like the icon/app model that Apple uses. I don't know what constitutes "many" in your mind. But Android is basically the same thing, so moving there doesn't change that much. WP7 is very different, but people haven't shown that they care for the function over app model.

    Apple isn't interested in competing with Microsoft in certain areas, such as in a full office suite, which is why many of us use Microsoft Office in addition to iWork, or something similar. So it's not exactly fair to say that people prefer Microsoft's software to Apple's. What you're saying is like stating that more people like SUV's rather than two seater sports cars. That may be so, but more people would find use in an SUV (or think they do) than a small sports car. They don't compete at all.
  • Reply 36 of 60
    melgrossmelgross Posts: 33,508member
    rogifan wrote: »
    <p>  </p><div class="quote-container"> <span>Quote:</span> <div class="quote-block"> Originally Posted by <strong>bullhead</strong> <a href="/t/149569/concerns-over-iphone-activation-totals-at-at-t-verizon-seen-as-overblown#post_2100106"><img alt="View Post" class="inlineimg" src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" /></a><br /> <br /> <br /> Are these the same blogger sites which say Microsoft Windows Phone is good? hardware is a small portion of what makes and Apple products great. It has always been about the software with a sprinkle of hardware mixed in. Spec sheets are not what Apple does, they have software as the major differentiator now. Everyone is copying Apples hardware, but no one has come close to the software. iOS is still way ahead of all the other mobile OS'es out there.</div></div><p>  </p><p> If hardware is such a small portion why does it take up so much space here and elsewhere?  Why are people obsessed with what the new iPhone will look like and how big the screen will be?  Where's the obsession over what great new features will be in iOS 6?  I guarantee you there will be wide spread disappointment if the new iPhone looks anything like the current iPhone, even if iOS 6 is a complete redesign with amazing new features years ahead of Android.</p>

    You may remember that a lot of people were saying the same thing about the 4S before it came out. I doubt the next model will be little changed over the present one though. But as with Apple's products overall, it's both a software and hardware ecosystem that people buy into. If Apple changed the hardware little with the next model, it would still sell well, but not as well as a completely new model would.

    If Apple comes out with a completely new model, with a slightly larger screen, and a different case, they could double their sales. Otherwise, sales could go up by maybe 25-50%.
  • Reply 37 of 60


    No matter what numbers we get tonight... if the forward statement doesn't paint a rosy picture then we'll see a further drop over the next few months.... until, at least, the introduction of the 6th gen iPhone and the forward statement for the holiday quarter.

     

  • Reply 38 of 60


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  • Reply 39 of 60


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  • Reply 40 of 60
    just_mejust_me Posts: 590member


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by melgross View Post





    You may remember that a lot of people were saying the same thing about the 4S before it came out. I doubt the next model will be little changed over the present one though. But as with Apple's products overall, it's both a software and hardware ecosystem that people buy into. If Apple changed the hardware little with the next model, it would still sell well, but not as well as a completely new model would.

    If Apple comes out with a completely new model, with a slightly larger screen, and a different case, they could double their sales. Otherwise, sales could go up by maybe 25-50%.


     


    There are hardware changes. NEW HOME BUTTON

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