PiperJaffray: 28nm chip shortages unlikely to impact Apple's next iPhone

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
A new report from investment bank PiperJaffray claims 28nm chip shortages at Qualcomm are unlikely to keep Apple from releasing a next-generation iPhone with a "completely redesigned body style" in October.

"The bottom line is that we remain comfortable with an October iPhone 5 launch despite the reported 28nm chip shortage at Qualcomm," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a note to investors obtained by AppleInsider on Monday.

Qualcomm is widely expected to provide the baseband chip for the next-generation iPhone. Both the iPhone 4S and the third-generation 4G iPad make use of Qualcomm cellular chips. Munster reported last month that Qualcomm's supply issues with its LTE chips would prevent Apple's next handset from being released any earlier than October of this year.

According to the note, the firm estimates an 80 percent chance that iPhone sales will meet its forecast of 49 million units in the December 2012 quarter. Even if Apple was affected by shortages, Munster expressed belief that iPhone sales would simply be shifted into the March 2013 quarter and beyond.

"We believe it would be unlikely that a consumer would choose to buy another phone if they are unable to get an iPhone 5 due to short term supply constraints given past launches with limited supply," he wrote.

PiperJaffray reiterated on Monday its Overweight rating for Apple and a $910 price target.

Munster suggested that Apple's size could help it achieve "favored inventory status" that would lessen the blow from any production woes that Qualcomm is experiencing. The firm also pointed to Apple's "past experience in dealing with potentially limited components at launch" as reason to believe that the company will remain relatively impervious to the shortage.

Munster ended his note with his thoughts on the possible specifications of Apple's next iPhone. He believes the redesigned iPhone may "more closely resemble the metal rear panel of the current iPad." He also said there is a 50 percent chance that the next iPhone will have a screen larger than four inches.

"Beyond the redesigned body and screen, we believe the new phone will include 4G LTE, upgraded processor and memory, and a higher megapixel camera," he added.

Several major media outlets reported last week that the sixth-generation iPhone will feature a larger display. The Wall Street Journal claimed that Apple had been placing orders for screens measuring "at least 4 inches diagonally." Subsequent reports claimed that the displays could be built as soon as June and that late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs had "worked closely" on the design of the device before his death last October.

Munster's predictions are largely in line with those of his his fellow analysts. Multiple investment firms have suggested that Apple will release a redesigned iPhone with LTE in September or October.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 16
    philboogiephilboogie Posts: 7,671member
    Quite a lot of bullet points being addressed here. One that stood out for me was the 'higher megapixel camera'. I am wary of the thought that they would increase it, as it will require more data, both in storage and networking if people want to mail/upload a full-res picture. Do you think they will increase the storage, to, say 96GB for the top end model? I think it stays at 64GB, at least for this years' 6th gen. model.
  • Reply 2 of 16
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,608member
    I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line.

    I do really hope they can get the new phone out in mid-September though. I'm a little nervous about the September quarter numbers without a few weeks of a new model.
  • Reply 3 of 16
    ifij775ifij775 Posts: 470member
    I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.
  • Reply 4 of 16
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    ifij775 wrote: »
    I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.

    That's not quite what he said. He said there's a 50% chance it will have a screen larger than 4". He doesn't address the question of whether they will retain the current 3.5" screen.
  • Reply 5 of 16
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    philboogie wrote: »
    Quite a lot of bullet points being addressed here. One that stood out for me was the 'higher megapixel camera'. I am wary of the thought that they would increase it, as it will require more data, both in storage and networking if people want to mail/upload a full-res picture. Do you think they will increase the storage, to, say 96GB for the top end model? I think it stays at 64GB, at least for this years' 6th gen. model.
    We only got the 64GB iPhone with the iPhone 4S. While I can see why some would want and pay for a 128GB* iPhone it seems unlikely to me they will double the capacity YoY.

    And before anyone says anything 96GB is entirely possible in a 2 chip system and even possible in a 1 chip system. So far we've not seen Apple do that but they could and there is an argument to be made that waiting to double your capacity each time will cause scaling issues in the future.

    * I'm sure many of these people would want a 256B or 512GB version if that was a possibility.

    aaarrrgggh wrote: »
    I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line.
    I do really hope they can get the new phone out in mid-September though. I'm a little nervous about the September quarter numbers without a few weeks of a new model.
    Looking at the iPhone and iPad ARP it doesn't look like the iPhone and iPad are selling mostly the high en models unless they are well countered by the low-end models. I've had many people ready to buy a new iPhone ask me which one they should get. I've simply looked at iTunes or their iOS settings to see how much space they are using. Surprisingly it's only a couple GBs.

    I think what we're seeing is the same thing we've seen with PCs for decades. There are PC users like members of this forum who store vast amounts of info or play games or do specialized work that require faster HW but most users just want something useful for basic tasks.

    I hope you get your 128GB iPhone this year as I will surely be in line for it but I don't think it's a priority for Apple, especially in a release cycle that looks to be seeing a new case design, LTE, and 28nm chips that can offer more space and power savings, and a potential for a larger display size. Higher storage capacity seems more like a 2nd cycle bullet point.

    ifij775 wrote: »
    I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.
    Sure there is a chance. Consider this to be Schrödinger's iPhone.
  • Reply 6 of 16
    festerfeetfesterfeet Posts: 108member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





     Consider this to be Schrödinger's iPhone.


    Ha ha that's brilliant and made me really chuckle just when I needed one image

  • Reply 7 of 16
    macbook promacbook pro Posts: 1,605member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post



    I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line.

    I do really hope they can get the new phone out in mid-September though. I'm a little nervous about the September quarter numbers without a few weeks of a new model.


    Why wouldn't you purchase a 32 GB or 64 GB iPhone?  I would like the price of 16 GB iPhones to be reduced as well but I do not believe we will see an increase this year.

  • Reply 8 of 16
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    philboogie wrote: »
    Quite a lot of bullet points being addressed here. One that stood out for me was the 'higher megapixel camera'. I am wary of the thought that they would increase it, as it will require more data, both in storage and networking if people want to mail/upload a full-res picture. Do you think they will increase the storage, to, say 96GB for the top end model? I think it stays at 64GB, at least for this years' 6th gen. model.

    I would guess more camera data would mean maybe 4-5 MB files for 10 MP. My 5MP iPhone 4 runs between 1.8 and 2.5 MB per image. I don't see that being a big deal on storage space or transfer.

    aaarrrgggh wrote: »
    I think storage really needs to go up at this point. My 16GB iPhone has several apps "stuck" mid-upgrade until I can sync with my computer to better limit music usage. It will then be at about the minimum comfortable storage level for music, without any movies or too large of amphoteric library. It makes sense for the bottom to be at 32 for the next generation phone, and the "entry level" phone to go to 16GB. Happy to have 64 on my iPad with 20 free (and no video), but that can't last as top of line.

    The base and limit will grow over time. The number of transistors in a given area double every 18 months, so maybe a bump next year.

    At least for now, I regret buying the new 64GB iPad, I end up having to throw in fluff to make it half full. I would have done OK with 16GB or pretty well at 32GB.

    solipsismx wrote: »
    We only got the 64GB iPhone with the iPhone 4S. While I can see why some would want and pay for a 128GB* iPhone it seems unlikely to me they will double the capacity YoY.
    And before anyone says anything 96GB is entirely possible in a 2 chip system and even possible in a 1 chip system. So far we've not seen Apple do that but they could and there is an argument to be made that waiting to double your capacity each time will cause scaling issues in the future.
    * I'm sure many of these people would want a 256B or 512GB version if that was a possibility.

    I didn't realize they offered 64GB on the 4S. I would give it another upgrade cycle for 128MB.
  • Reply 9 of 16
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ifij775 View Post



    I think it's interesting that he thinks there is a chance apple won't increase the screen size.


     


    Personally I think he's being smart about that call. Because there is a very good chance that they won't. It is possible that Apple feels they hit the sweet spot with the current screen size and has zero intention of ever changing it, no matter what the geeks yell for or the competition does. Same with the iPad. The iPod Touch is the outlier and there could be a change in it although probably not all the way to 7 inches. something in the 4-5 inch range seems more plausible


     


    As for the "not until October" I don't think that's an issue since that's when Apple is likely thinking about releasing the new iPhone anyway, same as last year. 

  • Reply 10 of 16
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacBook Pro View Post


    Why wouldn't you purchase a 32 GB or 64 GB iPhone?  I would like the price of 16 GB iPhones to be reduced as well but I do not believe we will see an increase this year.



     


    I could see the prices come down and we end up with only two models 32GB and 64GB. Something tells me that the iPad is where we'll see storage go up, not the iPhone. 


     


    Sure there's all this talk about better cameras etc but something tells me that Apple isn't looking to make it easy for folks to keep that stuff on their iPhones where it would be lost because folks aren't backing up. Forcing them to have to either limit their collection or shift stuff to their computer (whatever computer it is) seems more like Apple's thought process.


     


    And if you want to use the bigger apps, get the iPad for those. If you look at their own apps you can see where they have a clear preference for the iPad. iPhoto etc are barely useable on the iPhone. But on the iPad, it's a totally different game. 

  • Reply 11 of 16
    sailorpaulsailorpaul Posts: 321member


    I don't think the critical discussion points for this next iPhone model really revolve around memory.  


     


    Far more critical to rapid adoption will be what the carriers offer as data plan choices and how those are supported in the new iPhone.  


     


    For example:


    - even if the new iPhone supports LTE, can the user with a grandfathered 3G unlimited plan still force the iPhone to stay on 3G and retain the existing plan


    - will the carriers offer shared data plans for iPhone family plans


    - will any carriers offer lower priced data plans for unsubsidized iPhones?

  • Reply 12 of 16
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    charlituna wrote: »
    Personally I think he's being smart about that call. Because there is a very good chance that they won't. It is possible that Apple feels they hit the sweet spot with the current screen size and has zero intention of ever changing it, no matter what the geeks yell for or the competition does.

    I've seen a lot of non-geeks use the larger screen phones though, only maybe 10% are folks I would consider to be geeks. But the trend has clearly gotten out of hand, literally and figuratively, with the near 5" screens.
  • Reply 13 of 16
    marcusj0015marcusj0015 Posts: 199member
    Why would Qualcomm's output affect iPhones again? Sounds like another retarded analysist who doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.
  • Reply 14 of 16
    jeffdmjeffdm Posts: 12,951member
    Why would Qualcomm's output affect iPhones again? Sounds like another retarded analysist who doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.

    Really? I don't see why they're supposedly so off base on that particular issue, had you used some other example in the article, then you probably would have a point to rail against Munster. They supply a lot of multiband radio chips, including Apple's latest two iOS devices. If Apple designed a product around a component the supplier can't produce in sufficient volume, then it could be disruptive to Apple. That said, Apple might always be working on a plan B in parallel to critical components, but even then, Apple needs a supply of tens of millions for anything it puts into an iOS device.
  • Reply 15 of 16
    cloriscloris Posts: 2member


    supply replacement parts for iphone, ipad, ipod


    www.favormobile.com

  • Reply 16 of 16


    Oh I see, I didn't know about that lol, I was thinking about Qualcomm's Snapdragon SoC lol

Sign In or Register to comment.