iPhone 4S drawdown ahead of Apple's next model is smaller than expected

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  • Reply 21 of 28
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by logandigges View Post


    Yeah, that was lost in a bar. That is a different story. Now we are talking supply line rumors. I agree with that. If we found an iPhone in a bar now, I would consider that real.



     


    You shouldn't. Look at last year's supposed 'lost' prototype stories. Never substantiated, not even the whole 'what was said to the guy' was ever proven. The local media started to suspect that the truth was far from the claims and basically everything beyond someone asking the cops to go with him to a house where he suspected his stolen phone was to be false. If someone could go to that much to get a little fame they could go to other lengths, like fake a back plate confirming the rumors going around and say they were 'accidentally' sent it with their other repair parts from Apple or it was given to them by someone in the know (i.e., stolen from the production factory)

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  • Reply 22 of 28
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    Okay. Well, apologies, then; that's pretty odd. People really seem to like the iPhone 4, eh? 



     


    You two take a breath. You are both right and wrong.


     


    In general, holiday quarters will always be the best for any retail company, often to the degree that the holiday quarter will meet or beat the combined sales for the rest of the year. As said because folks tend to be more generous during the holidays and companies play on this with more sales etc particularly those that require multiple unit purchases ($15 or 2 for $20 gigs)


     


    HOWEVER when a company has a item or items that are major sales draws like the iPhone and iPad are, they will see an uptick in sales during the quarter it releases no matter when that is. People want the latest and the greatest and they want it now.


     


    The iPhone right now isn't seeing quite the down swing because folks have figured out that Apple's not likely to blow it out of the water every year with the updates. Small steps each year so that if you follow your contract and buy every other year you see a major upgrade. With the carriers dropping their mid contract options we'll see more of this. Add to this that many folks bought their iPhone in June of 2010 and if they aren't obsessed with the absolute newness thing they are inclined to buy, especially if something goes south with their current phone like the battery or it gets dropped. I mean why would you fork out $99 to $149 to do an out of warranty replacement when $199 gets you a phone on a contract you have no issue with extending. 

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  • Reply 23 of 28
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


     


    I've always thought that Apple could do better with a different business model... but then the iPhone 4 gave me hope that they were onto something. It appears, though, that, as competition grows stronger, Apple's sales declines throughout the remainder of the year may increase.


     


    I'm hoping that I'm right about increased screen size/new look being the panacea to cure these ails and that sales quarters will again increase throughout the year.



     


    Apple doesn't focus on the quarters so much as the overall year. They know that they'll have some downs in sales but if the year is solid and they never fall under the operating budget needs, that's okay. 


     


    Besides if you look at their calendar we are finishing up their Q3 at the end of this month. Just in time for them to have possibly launched, a complete computer revamp and their Back to School Promo. Those could bring in sales enough to avoid a huge Q4 dip. Especially depending on exactly what the promo is. And with schools hopefully adopting more iPads this year Apple could offer up some kind of bulk price to the schools or even allow some kind of special discounts to the students. Something like the school registers into something kind of system that they are requiring students to provide their own iPad for the coming school year. Parents present proof that their kid goes to that school and can purchase said iPad using the school's bulk discount of like 5-10% off. 


     


    Of course things like this aren't likely to bring in sales that match Q1 for 2012 which had the iPhone and holiday but if they avoid a total bottom out that's good enough. 

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  • Reply 24 of 28
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


     


    Apple doesn't focus on the quarters so much as the overall year. They know that they'll have some downs in sales but if the year is solid and they never fall under the operating budget needs, that's okay. 


     


    Besides if you look at their calendar we are finishing up their Q3 at the end of this month. Just in time for them to have possibly launched, a complete computer revamp and their Back to School Promo. Those could bring in sales enough to avoid a huge Q4 dip. Especially depending on exactly what the promo is. And with schools hopefully adopting more iPads this year Apple could offer up some kind of bulk price to the schools or even allow some kind of special discounts to the students. Something like the school registers into something kind of system that they are requiring students to provide their own iPad for the coming school year. Parents present proof that their kid goes to that school and can purchase said iPad using the school's bulk discount of like 5-10% off. 


     


    Of course things like this aren't likely to bring in sales that match Q1 for 2012 which had the iPhone and holiday but if they avoid a total bottom out that's good enough. 



     


    So you are saying that Apple isn't interested in doing even better?


     


    [hope the shareholders don't get wind of this]

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  • Reply 25 of 28
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by charlituna View Post


     


    You two take a breath. You are both right and wrong.


     


    In general, holiday quarters will always be the best for any retail company, often to the degree that the holiday quarter will meet or beat the combined sales for the rest of the year. As said because folks tend to be more generous during the holidays and companies play on this with more sales etc particularly those that require multiple unit purchases ($15 or 2 for $20 gigs)


     


    HOWEVER when a company has a item or items that are major sales draws like the iPhone and iPad are, they will see an uptick in sales during the quarter it releases no matter when that is. People want the latest and the greatest and they want it now.


     


    The iPhone right now isn't seeing quite the down swing because folks have figured out that Apple's not likely to blow it out of the water every year with the updates. Small steps each year so that if you follow your contract and buy every other year you see a major upgrade. With the carriers dropping their mid contract options we'll see more of this. Add to this that many folks bought their iPhone in June of 2010 and if they aren't obsessed with the absolute newness thing they are inclined to buy, especially if something goes south with their current phone like the battery or it gets dropped. I mean why would you fork out $99 to $149 to do an out of warranty replacement when $199 gets you a phone on a contract you have no issue with extending. 



     


    Not always true. TS pointed out sales of the 4... just kept rising.

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  • Reply 26 of 28
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member


    This isn't really surprising, considering how Apple has staggered the release of the 4S among smaller telecoms worldwide. Many providers will be getting the 4S around the same time AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint are launching the 5. It's a good bit of strategy on Apple's part, and I'd rather see them dominating the industry through these sorts of tactics than with lawsuits and BS patents.

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  • Reply 27 of 28

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post


     


    Not always true. TS pointed out sales of the 4... just kept rising.



    There has been some confusion in this thread with some posters thinking about U.S. sales, which are more seasonal, and some posters thinking about world sales. The world sales were strongly influenced by Apple's continuous roll-out of the iPhone around the world, so each quarter saw a boost from sales from new countries.


     


    This phased strategy has helped keep demand in line with sales for nearly the whole calendar year until the next iPhone release.

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  • Reply 28 of 28
    island hermitisland hermit Posts: 6,217member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Macky the Macky View Post


    There has been some confusion in this thread with some posters thinking about U.S. sales, which are more seasonal, and some posters thinking about world sales. The world sales were strongly influenced by Apple's continuous roll-out of the iPhone around the world, so each quarter saw a boost from sales from new countries.


     


    This phased strategy has helped keep demand in line with sales for nearly the whole calendar year until the next iPhone release.



     


    Huh? I'm looking at "overall" sales.


     


    Going down each quarter is not the "best" strategy to me.


     


    Apple needs to find a more consistent sales pattern... the "4" sales pattern was much more acceptable to me. Maybe the success of the 4S launch was too much of a good thing.


     


    Personally, I think that the launch of iPhone v.6 is going to prove what I am trying to say here.


     


    [if the drawdown in the U.S. is so great that international sales can't keep overall sales treading water... need I say more.]


     


    [I'm really surprised that nobody has brought up the fact that even at 30 million in sales the 4S would still be doing 50% better than the best month for the 4... c'mon you guys! Har!]

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