Led by Apple's iPad, tablets projected to surpass notebooks by 2016

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  • Reply 21 of 41
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member


    AAPL is sniffing around $600 -- first time in a while!

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  • Reply 22 of 41
    shidellshidell Posts: 187member


    We really should not condemn Microsoft's prior attempts at a tablet with their current attempt. Microsoft tried to make tablet computing viable as early as Windows XP, but never changed the UI to support it well.


     


    Windows 8 represents a dramatic shift from their previous attempts, with an emphasis on mobile use as well as full desktop support--and they're making that available in a single device, and (what seems clear to me, anyway) a push to make the mobile phone the PC and tablet of the future.

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  • Reply 23 of 41
    studentxstudentx Posts: 112member


    How does Apple go from 90% of the tablet market to 50%?

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  • Reply 24 of 41
    shidellshidell Posts: 187member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Perhaps I'm too much of an optimist but I expect that one day these posters will realize that the one-device-fits-all, the bizarre combination of devices that break apart, like the Asus PadFone, and the large after market PC towers by DiYers with fancy stickers and neon lights on their chassis are not the future of computing.


     


    You know, one could turn that around and say the same thing about the Apple Newton--and compare that to the iPad of today.

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  • Reply 25 of 41
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Not to be pedantic but I think MS has made their entire product line even more confusing by calling them both Surface. No designation of RT and Pro between the models. Only the Windows OS sitting on top get that designation: Surface with Windows 8 RT and Surface with Windows 8 Pro.


     


    Good points!


     


    MS wants to spread the fantasy of "Windows Everywhere" -- when in reality, they are pushing "Metro Everywhere" -- except all those users on XP, Windows 7....


     


    So, to satisfy 2 use cases, MS has 3 separate (incompatible) OSes.

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  • Reply 26 of 41

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    i would think that notebook sales would decrease as iPad sales increase. not 1 to 1 obviously, but i know several people who decided to buy an iPad rather than a notebook. i myself have postponed my MacBook Air purchase because of my increased iPad use.



     


     


    If this is a widespread phenomenon, we should expect it to have  a deleterious effect on Apple's top line, with a corresponing reduction in its bottom line.

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  • Reply 27 of 41
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    shidell wrote: »
    You know, one could turn that around and say the same thing about the Apple Newton--and compare that to the iPad of today.

    No, you can't. Newton is nothing like the iPad and yet the x86 Surface still has a standard Windows UI that MS has been using since Win95. MS has failed big because they couldn't make any decisions. I blame Ballmer.


    Good points!

    MS wants to spread the fantasy of "Windows Everywhere" -- when in reality, they are pushing "Metro Everywhere" -- except all those users on XP, Windows 7....

    So, to satisfy 2 use cases, MS has 3 separate (incompatible) OSes.

    To put it bluntly, it's shit! MS just needs to focus instead they are trying to do everythign at once because they can't make any decisions. They should not have called anything that only has the Matro UI Windows. Ignoring the obvious point that Metro actually eschews windowing altogether it's just going to be confusing for users who are expecting their Windows apps to work. They already had this issue once before with 32-bit and 640bit versions of WIndows and now they are going to throw another confusing wrench into their operation again? Why is Steve Ballmer acting like Montgomery Brewster?

    Apple showed everyone the way with splitting the OS names and design to idealize each for the platform and make it simple for the user to understand the differences. The only thing MS has finally figured out is that it needed to make it's WinNT kernel efficient enough so that it build across all devices to reduce costs and compatibility issues yet somehow they failed to understand that the same UI across all devices doesn't work.

    They've also failed by demoing incomplete products with no ship dates or prices. This is one area where Google has gotten it right. Their Nexus 7 had a price, a 2-3 week shipping time with pre-orders and a finished version of Android OS.
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  • Reply 28 of 41
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    shidell wrote: »
    We really should not condemn Microsoft's prior attempts at a tablet with their current attempt. Microsoft tried to make tablet computing viable as early as Windows XP, but never changed the UI to support it well.

    Windows 8 represents a dramatic shift from their previous attempts, with an emphasis on mobile use as well as full desktop support--and they're making that available in a single device, and (what seems clear to me, anyway) a push to make the mobile phone the PC and tablet of the future.

    I don't mean to pick on you -- but re-engineering the OS is only half the battle (or less).

    Yes, Windows 8 has some UI APIs designed for touch... That's all well and good! But the problem is in the Windows apps -- they need to be re-imagined and rewritten to:

    1) use the touch UI

    2) fit in the smaller display size of the Surface

    3) run in a single-window [fixed size] environment -- AFAICT, the Surface PRO does not support multiple, resizable windows.


    Do you believe that most developers are going rewrite their apps, "as-is", for touch?

    Just how is that multi-band header controls and ribbon interface going to work -- when it occupies the top 1/2 - 2/3 of the screen and the controls are too small for anything but a stylus... now, where did I put that stylus?

    If it is so easy, why didn't MS show a single Office app running on the Surface Pro at their debut -- I can answer that: They don't run well on a tablet, "as-is", and they are a PITA to re-implement!
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  • Reply 29 of 41
    zozmanzozman Posts: 393member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by OllieWallieWhiskers View Post


    i would think that notebook sales would decrease as iPad sales increase. not 1 to 1 obviously, but i know several people who decided to buy an iPad rather than a notebook. i myself have postponed my MacBook Air purchase because of my increased iPad use.



     


    Maybe, but retards like me are helping the figures.


    I have a new iPad the iPad 2 the macbook air & Im waiting for my rMBP to arrive, for the most part i don't think the iPad replaces a notebook, if i was gonna pick one id get the air, its only if it was a money issue id pick one. 

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  • Reply 30 of 41
    shidellshidell Posts: 187member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post





    Summarized.


     


    Your questions are valid--they're the same questions everyone has been asking. This paradigm shift was a huge focus at Microsoft's conventions this year, and as an attendee, here's what I can share:


     



    • Metro applications are designed to support both touch as well as keyboard and mouse input. They are designed to be full-screen, or "split-screen" with another (supporting) Metro application, as a fragment.


    • Microsoft's put very strong tools in place to help. The framework for building Metro apps is very complete, and builds on the existing Windows platform, supporting not only .NET, but also C++ as first-class citizens.


     


    It is tremendously easy to create powerful Metro apps quickly, because Microsoft is providing a wealth of building blocks so that it's more akin to assembling applications rather than writing them all from scratch. These tools are designed to be easily accessible by touch but equally support mouse and keyboard input, and only show in context--they are not always visible, but only when the software wants to display them, or when the user wants to see a context of options for the current application.


     


    It might be hard to imagine. I suggest trying the Metro interface with touch input, that's the only way to really get a tactile feel for how the components work.

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  • Reply 31 of 41
    negafoxnegafox Posts: 480member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    Oh, we all get it, but you fail to realize that MS and their vendors have been trying to push such a tablet for decades and it has yet to take off. The last big push was the HP Slate. Converging technologies is more about what not to include and trying to make a product that isn't ideal for any task so it can technically be used for every task is recipe for failure in the tech world. It's the Homer car all over again except this time around it's about trying to make the HW be everything to everyone but to include two UIs on the same device. And at MacBook Air prices, too boot.


    The problem with Windows-based tablets thus far is the touch keyboard functionality is horrific. Seriously, go to a Fry's Electronics and try playing with a Windows 7 tablet. It is completely unusable. Convergent technologies is indeed the future, but Microsoft's approach thus far was not it. iOS showed the world how to do touch keyboards properly. Now I believe we will start to see personal computing shift from notebook to tablet for an even more portable experience. I am willing to wager we will eventually see MacBook tablets down the road.

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  • Reply 32 of 41
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    negafox wrote: »
    I am willing to wager we will eventually see MacBook tablets down the road.

    There is now a new ModBook Pro but I get this even less than the previous models. Before it was at least interesting though pointless but post-iPad I just don't see anything past a couple thousand units in sales. I'm sure the RiM Playbook sold more. They might as well just call a spade a spade and rename is the MehBook.


    I agree that convergence is a good thing but the trick is converging the right things and MS is trying to have their cake and eat it too. I just don't think MS gets opportunity cost. Since the first iPad we've seen Apple do nothing but add new features that make it more Mac-ish in the since that it can be more of full-fledged personal computing device and I expect Apple to continue down that same road as the HW, SW and ecosystem allow.
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  • Reply 33 of 41
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,527member
    shidell wrote: »
    Your questions are valid--they're the same questions everyone has been asking. This paradigm shift was a huge focus at Microsoft's conventions this year, and as an attendee, here's what I can share:
    • Metro applications are designed to support both touch as well as keyboard and mouse input. They are designed to be full-screen, or "split-screen" with another (supporting) Metro application, as a fragment.
    • Microsoft's put very strong tools in place to help. The framework for building Metro apps is very complete, and builds on the existing Windows platform, supporting not only .NET, but also C++ as first-class citizens.

    It is tremendously easy to create powerful Metro apps quickly, because Microsoft is providing a wealth of building blocks so that it's more akin to assembling applications rather than writing them all from scratch. These tools are designed to be easily accessible by touch but equally support mouse and keyboard input, and only show in context--they are not always visible, but only when the software wants to display them, or when the user wants to see a context of options for the current application.

    It might be hard to imagine. I suggest trying the Metro interface with touch input, that's the only way to really get a tactile feel for how the components work.

    We seem to be talking past one another!

    First, I understand the Snap Screen in Metro -- I have the Taposé app (MS Courier) on my iPad and it is quite nice. But, it is no replacement for [unlimited] resizable, overlapping windows used by Windows, OS X... On the desktop, it is not unusual to have, say, several WP, SS, text, browser (whatever) windows open at the same time.

    I always assumed that Metro had 1st class, modern, developer tools -- though not as mature as iOS or Android.

    But those tools are for new (or newly-reimagined/rewritten apps).


    Take an application like PhotoShop, AutoCad, MS Word... Are they going to be rewritten [in their entirety] as desktop-compatible Metro apps (or a family of metro apps)?

    I don't think so!!

    I can point you to several example where companies are taking the "concept" and some major features of a legacy desktop app and bringing it to the tablet paradigm -- but they are different apps with a different codebase. Their capabilities are a subset of the desktop apps, and are not compatible in both directions.

    Here are some majors that have iPad apps derived from desktop apps:

    -- Adobe
    -- Apple
    -- Autodesk
    -- Avid
    *
    *
    *
    *

    Let's take Apple's Pages (WP) desktop application for example -- there are many things in the desktop version that are just not present in iOS iPad version.

    Now, let's assume that Apple's developers understand their apps and developer tools as well as MS'. Apple made tradeoffs in their apps for the tablet -- MS will have to make tradeoffs too (as will Adobe, AutoDesk...).

    That's for Metro...


    Now, The Surface Pro, running Windows 8, is an MBA (or UltraBook) WannaBe, but it really is a hybrid tablet/netbook at [expected] UltraBook prices. There is just not enough substance in the Surface Pro to support the legacy desktop apps in the manner in which they have become accustomed.

    Are the major developers going to rewrite/repackage their existing apps for the Surface Pro (as well as for the Surface RT)? I don't think so -- where's the $ in doing that? Even if they do decide to make a Surface Pro version, there will be feature and compatibility tradeoffs.

    So here is what I suspect will be required to run an application on "Windows Everywhere" (except WP7):

    MS Word* Desktop application

    MS Word* Surface Pro application

    MS Word* Surface RT Metro app

    * Substitute any Company and major legacy Windows application


    That's three different application products. Will any developers want to write and maintain 3 different code bases just so they can run "Windows Everywhere"?

    How will these products be priced?


    Here's the deal... Will, say, Adobe see enough potential in the Surface to write a variant of Photoshop for the Surface Pro?

    What's in it for Adobe?

    I don't think there is any potential there, when you consider that a user can already run full Photoshop "as-is" on an MBA or UltraBook... and run it well!
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  • Reply 34 of 41
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,388member
    studentx wrote: »
    How does Apple go from 90% of the tablet market to 50%?

    95% used, 50% shipped.
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  • Reply 35 of 41
    timgriff84timgriff84 Posts: 912member
    I always assumed that Metro had 1st class, modern, developer tools -- though not as mature as iOS or Android.
    I'd say there more mature. The dev tools are the same dev tools used for current windows apps, asp.net websites, wp7 apps. It's all one dev environment that had a big lead over Xcode. There's some features Xcode has that I'd like in visual studio, but ultimately as apple always focused on consumers and Microsoft focused on developers, it's not surprise Microsoft has the best tools.
    But those tools are for new (or newly-reimagined/rewritten apps).

    Take an application like PhotoShop, AutoCad, MS Word... Are they going to be rewritten [in their entirety] as desktop-compatible Metro apps (or a family of metro apps)?
    I don't think so!!
    I can point you to several example where companies are taking the "concept" and some major features of a legacy desktop app and bringing it to the tablet paradigm -- but they are different apps with a different codebase. Their capabilities are a subset of the desktop apps, and are not compatible in both directions.
    Here are some majors that have iPad apps derived from desktop apps:
    -- Adobe
    -- Apple
    -- Autodesk
    -- Avid
    Don't need to be re-written, they just need a new ui layer. Take adobe for example, photoshop is not written in .net for windows and Xcode for mac. It's written in c++ for both with largely the same code for both. Windows 8 supports c++ for metro, apple only support objective c for iPad. So your right the iPad does not have complete photoshop but there's also bigger reasons why it doesn't over why a windows 8 tablet wouldn't.
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  • Reply 36 of 41
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,759member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum View Post


     


    I think that most people, here, understand the difference between the Surface RT (Metro only) and the Surface Pro (Windows 8).



     


    Sorry, but I sure as hell don't. Which is for which? We already know that Windows 8 is *by itself* separated by two distinct interfaces that are forced to co-exist: Metro and "standard" Windows. 


     


    I don't get all this weird stratification that MS is trying to impose on computing in a desperate attempt to address every need and market they *think* (and hope) needs addressing.

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  • Reply 37 of 41
    MacPromacpro Posts: 19,873member
    AAPL is sniffing around $600 -- first time in a while!

    FiOS has been down since last night here .... Just rejoined the living .... OMG that's great news!,,,
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  • Reply 38 of 41
    MacPromacpro Posts: 19,873member
    quadra 610 wrote: »
    Sorry, but I sure as hell don't. Which is for which? We already know that Windows 8 is *by itself* separated by two distinct interfaces that are forced to co-exist: Metro and "standard" Windows. 

    I don't get all this weird stratification that MS is trying to impose on computing in a desperate attempt to address every need and market they *think* (and hope) needs addressing.

    The tech experts here do but the average Joe sure won't either. It looks to me like a classic case of being design driven by focus groups and committees .... I recall Steve wasn't into that too much ...
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  • Reply 39 of 41

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shidell View Post


     


    You know, one could turn that around and say the same thing about the Apple Newton--and compare that to the iPad of today.



    Did Apple dredge up the old Newton OS and try to bring it up to date by covering the screen with LEGO-colored rectangles? Microsoft trotted out their resource pig wearing fresh makeup.

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  • Reply 40 of 41
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by timgriff84 View Post



    <snip>

    Don't need to be re-written, they just need a new ui layer. Take adobe for example, photoshop is not written in .net for windows and Xcode for mac. It's written in c++ for both with largely the same code for both. Windows 8 supports c++ for metro, apple only support objective c for iPad. So your right the iPad does not have complete photoshop but there's also bigger reasons why it doesn't over why a windows 8 tablet wouldn't.


    Considering that Adobe has not found a way to integrate their UI across all programs successfully within their Suite on either OSX or Windows, I find it hard to believe they will be able to do so specifically for Win8 Surface.


     


    Also... I truly find it hard to fathom that Win8 Surface fans will pony up for another license to run Photoshop or any other CS6 program on the Win8 Surface.


     


    Or will the Surface be "enough" computer to disable the license on their desktop?


     


    They will "purchase" another license at full-price, won't they?


     


    Or at the very least from Adobe, purchase a monthly subscription.... right?


     


    My skeptical side says "I just don't think so" to all of the above.


     


    As a consultant to many photographers, I've also been witness to quite a phenomenon.


     


    After integrating an iPad or 2 in their work flow and having access to some pretty powerful and easy Apps on the iPad, they ask me for equivalents on the desktop. On OSX, we've seen a number of initial iOS developers decide to port their offerings "back" to OSX.... and in many ways, offer a far easier approach to effects, filters, etc. than a full version of Photoshop.


     


    If developers are not "prodded" to think different about touch, power-conservation, etc... will they?


     


    Will there even be developers that come out with innovative easy-to-use Metro apps, and be requested by their fans to go "pro" with the same ease of use and concept, as we've witnessed with iOS->OSX?


     


    Let's also not forget, that some of the power of Photoshop lies in it's 3rd-party plug-in developers. Considering that Adobe advises to disable 3rd-party plugins when troubleshooting problems, and this will be no different on the Surface... how is that going to effect the "run anywhere" approach Microsoft is taking? And believe me, plug-ins are very often the culprit... so are THEY going to also rework their add-on software to work on the Surface?


     


    Also... what about device and graphic drivers?


     


    Yes I realize that supposedly, the Surface will be basically a touch-enabled netbook or even notebook. However, I think anybody that has ever seen or tried a so-called "pro" program on current devices (other than an MBA), knows that there are some serious compromises they will have to make to call it "pro" in every day or even casual usage. Please see my initial statements above and ask yourself, "will it be worth a license"? Really?


     


    Color me VERY skeptical that Microsoft Surface will be releasing anything approaching the power of an MBA... and again, at what price-point if they do?


     


    Developing specifically for Metro or for the Surface Pro, could be a costly mistake at this point in time for any developer, both small and large.


     


    So we're back to the "horse-cart" and "chicken-egg" conundrum: without certain developers on board from day one, Win8 Surface RT sales will go nowhere.... and without a Surface Pro to test or develop for, there will be no "new", innovative, or optimized apps.


     


    As a betting kind of guy, my wager is that WinSurfRT won't get off the ground in any serious numbers, and that a working* version of WinSurfPro won't be available until Summer 2013.


     


    *The first batch will have all manner of problems... but Microsoft WILL keep trying, that's why I don't think they will kill it. Trends point to the fact that they can't afford to give up. MS will be the next "rags to riches" tech story ~ 2015.

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