This is why I think MS is so keen on making the surface. Not because they want to be a PC HW marker, but because they finally realize that Apple's iPad is a huge threat to Windows.
The iPad is the elephant in the room. MS isn't going to die tomorrow, but 5% decline every year will eventually lead to death. Microsoft will either change its business model or be irrelevant in 10 years. I'm tempted to blame MS's future failure on ego and bureaucracy. However, maybe there really isn't anything that MS can do. The MS business model uses corporate IT departments and compatibility with MS Office to strong arm the rest of the world into using Windows.
What makes us think there is something MS can do to build a consumer business? The only successful MS consumer product to date is Xbox and its success was strongly tied to two things (i) selling the hardware for a loss and (ii) having exclusive rights to a few really popular "hard core" video games. MS would have to get really lucky to replicate the Xbox outcome with Surface and it isn't likely to be very profitable for them. Apple has shown that the new model is simple inexpensive software (apps) and advanced hardware, which is the antithesis of the MS business model.
IMHO, MS is screwed. Google is in a slightly better position, but not by much. If you think about who cuts the checks for Google, it isn't consumers. It is their advertising partners. Google has no consumer channels of commerce. Google is trying to buy their way into the consumer market with Motorola. However, Motorola uses cell phone providers to do their marketing. Google screwed the pooch with its purchase of Motorola because people are not going to buy their tablets from a cell phone company.
Amazon may have the best chance to succeed against Apple. At least Amazon operates in the consumer market. Amazon can quickly get into the handset market through cell phone providers looking for an alternative to the iPhone. Amazon can even sell for very little profit and then benefit from all the software through the Amazon store. More importantly, Amazon is the only competitor that will have a marketplace to sell tablet hardware and content.
When will these people stop referring to the iPad as a 'media tablet'? Are people still struggling to classify the iPad? Are people still in denial? Is the iPad for consuming media only? Really?
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Lenovo sells a lot of low margin devices in Asia. It doesn't do much good to have 50B in revenue if you only make 50M in profit. PCs will soon be a commodity like corn. HP recognized this problem and considered selling its PC division a year ago (note that it is the world leader). It isn't very exciting to be a PC vendor these days.
I think they would have had a chance if they would have called the device with the Metro UI and requiring all new apps to be vetted by their app store to be called Metro OS. There is literally no more windowing in that UI. I also think they've doubly and triply messed up by announcing an ARM and X86 version and then not having them ready for many month from now with no price point or sale date. At least when Google announced the Nexus 7 it had a price, a fairly specific ship date that was close, and you could pre-order immediately.
(Need analogy to describe having someone brilliant but then destroying it by doing other of plenty stupid things.)
Since the MS Surface presos was all talk, here's something that might fill the bill:
Mark Antony: "Friends, Romans, Countrymen... I got sumpin' I wanna' tell ya!"
When will these people stop referring to the iPad as a 'media tablet'? Are people still struggling to classify the iPad? Are people still in denial? Is the iPad for consuming media only? Really?
They don't want to throw the market into disarray buy calling it a computer... but really, the iPad is a full portable computer. It doesn't have to look like a computer from 10 years ago to still be a computer.
I don't think desktops are dead for everybody. I think they just need to shrink in size and become high performance media devices. Some desktops come with the option to have an HDTV card. That is a good idea.
When manufacturers start making Mac Mini size high performance computers they will sell more of them. It would invigorate the market. I have two towers. I use just one of them and I have a Mac Book. I really would like a low power high performance computer for my desk. There is a German company doing this and those units look great. They come with i7 multi-core processors and plenty of RAM. They aren't sold in the USA. They are smaller than the Mac Mini in width but they are slightly taller. They also cost a couple of hundred dollars less than the Mini.
Have you seen micro-computers the size of a deck of playing cards? They are low power and low feature right now but they're very interesting. They run small versions of Linux. The only good future for desktop computers is the small form factor with high performance.
They don't want to throw the market into disarray buy calling it a computer... but really, the iPad is a full portable computer. It doesn't have to look like a computer from 10 years ago to still be a computer.
Without citing specific named software::
What jobs can I do on a [pc-era] computer that I can't do on an iPad?
and
What jobs can I do on an iPad that I can't do on a [pc-era] computer.
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
That's my point. It's not about making Windows sales from the Surface something substantial, but a last ditch effort to dig in so that can desperately hopefully Windows OEMs can have a jumping off point in the tablet market.
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
Microsoft: Hyping vaporware since 1985. Only this century, few give a fleeting care.
Based on my own personal experience in trying to get a rMBP at several Apple stores, they are selling like hotcakes.
Depends how many they manufactured in the first place. Demand for new Macs is traditionally at it's peak just after they're launched. The real test will come in 6 or 12 months when the pent up demand has been satisfied and the initial hype has gone. I'll be very interested to see if they can sustain a higher percentage of overall Mac sales than the 17" MBP.
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
I watched the MS presentation and it was very amateurish and clumsy! I just don't think MS has the skill to successfully implement a competitor to the iPad. They have to be very worried about Apple and iOS!
What jobs can I do on a [pc-era] computer that I can't do on an iPad?
and
What jobs can I do on an iPad that I can't do on a [pc-era] computer.
Use it on my lap without feeling like it's burning the lap?
I think those are flawed questions, like a false exclusivity. With tools, it's rarely about what one can do that the other can't that is the deciding point, but what can do the job better, faster, less maintenance, etc. I really don't have a problem with the classification as a media tablet, the classification doesn't mean it can't do anything outside of the named category, but that it's really good at that task.
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
Actually, I kinda' feel sorry for Ballmer...
When he takes his morning "dump" he's gotta' know that that's the best it's gonna' be all day!
The iPad is the elephant in the room. MS isn't going to die tomorrow, but 5% decline every year will eventually leAmazon may have the best chance to succeed against Apple. At least Amazon operates in the consumer market. Amazon can quickly get into the handset market through cell phone providers looking for an alternative to the iPhone. Amazon can even sell for very little profit and then benefit from all the software through the Amazon store. More importantly, Amazon is the only competitor that will have a marketplace to sell tablet hardware and content.
Perhaps, but Amazon has a big problem. There's a pretty strong move afoot to require sales taxes on Internet sales - even if you don't have a nexus in the state. That, combined with the fact that as Amazon grows, they need new warehouses, expanding the number of states they pay taxes (a la California), means that Amazon is likely to lose a key cost advantage.
Given that Amazon only makes a few percent on each sale, requiring the customer to pay 10% sales tax (for example) may shift a lot of Amazon customers back to brick and mortar. While I expect that Amazon will adapt and survive, it will sure take away much of their ability to subsidize loss leaders like the Kindle Fire (allegedly).
Depends how many they manufactured in the first place. Demand for new Macs is traditionally at it's peak just after they're launched. The real test will come in 6 or 12 months when the pent up demand has been satisfied and the initial hype has gone. I'll be very interested to see if they can sustain a higher percentage of overall Mac sales than the 17" MBP.
That shouldn't be hard. Apple doesn't publish breakdown by model, but one report said that the 17" was only a couple percent of MBP sales - which makes it insignificant in the big picture. The rMBP is likely to have a greater share than the 17" did. I would guess that almost everyone who would have otherwise bought a 17" MBP will buy a 15" rMBP. In addition, some percentage of people who would have otherwise bought the old 15" MBP will buy the 15" rMBP.
Depends how many they manufactured in the first place. Demand for new Macs is traditionally at it's peak just after they're launched. The real test will come in 6 or 12 months when the pent up demand has been satisfied and the initial hype has gone. I'll be very interested to see if they can sustain a higher percentage of overall Mac sales than the 17" MBP.
What do you mean? The 17-inch MBP isn't a big seller.
Retina Macs will rule the Mac lineup in due course. Beautiful Macs with gorgeous displays that run OS X. No problem.
I don't think PCs are going anywhere anytime soon, but I do think we're getting to a point where machines perceived as being far less powerful are becoming just powerful enough to do the things we used to do on PCs. It's even gotten to the point where I think Apple isn't as interested in updating the Mac Pro as much as a lot of professionals would like them to because there are now iMacs and MacBook Pros that seem to be nearly as powerful if not for the obvious lack of expansion slots. Now a lot of people scoff at that idea, but really, we've been doing video and 3D editing and such on much less powerful computers years before we had Mac Pros and the current lineups of Windows workstation machines.
I think it's a perception that anything less will be bogged down. Or like in all IT departments before 2007 where absolutely nothing was done without a Windows machine and a Blackberry. Maybe that's just my perception. It's like the whole FCPX debacle. At first everyone who did professional video editing absolutely despised it. Now I see lots of reviews where professionals are actually impressed with it and thrilled with the new version. Some people still hate it and have moved to Adobe Premier or Avid because they lost all faith in FCPX and Apple. That's their right to do if they see fit, but it would seem that a lot of people have either figured out FCPX and have made it work with their workflow or didn't need to figure anything out at all and it all just worked intuitively. A lot of reviewers now say that they don't understand what all the negativity was/is all about. The people who abandoned it did so because they possibly perceived that since it did things differently and that some features were eliminated in favor of other features that it is now an inferior product. Perhaps it really is inferior but some professionals are still using it and are happy with it. Maybe while it is not perceived as being as powerful as before, it is apparently still more than enough to get the job done.
I think that's why PCs are in decline...there are lesser machines now that are more than enough to get the job done. Soon enough that will probably include the iPad...much to the chagrin of many people. Hell, people are already including the MS Surface and that doesn't even exist yet!
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
This is why I think MS is so keen on making the surface. Not because they want to be a PC HW marker, but because they finally realize that Apple's iPad is a huge threat to Windows.
The iPad is the elephant in the room. MS isn't going to die tomorrow, but 5% decline every year will eventually lead to death. Microsoft will either change its business model or be irrelevant in 10 years. I'm tempted to blame MS's future failure on ego and bureaucracy. However, maybe there really isn't anything that MS can do. The MS business model uses corporate IT departments and compatibility with MS Office to strong arm the rest of the world into using Windows.
What makes us think there is something MS can do to build a consumer business? The only successful MS consumer product to date is Xbox and its success was strongly tied to two things (i) selling the hardware for a loss and (ii) having exclusive rights to a few really popular "hard core" video games. MS would have to get really lucky to replicate the Xbox outcome with Surface and it isn't likely to be very profitable for them. Apple has shown that the new model is simple inexpensive software (apps) and advanced hardware, which is the antithesis of the MS business model.
IMHO, MS is screwed. Google is in a slightly better position, but not by much. If you think about who cuts the checks for Google, it isn't consumers. It is their advertising partners. Google has no consumer channels of commerce. Google is trying to buy their way into the consumer market with Motorola. However, Motorola uses cell phone providers to do their marketing. Google screwed the pooch with its purchase of Motorola because people are not going to buy their tablets from a cell phone company.
Amazon may have the best chance to succeed against Apple. At least Amazon operates in the consumer market. Amazon can quickly get into the handset market through cell phone providers looking for an alternative to the iPhone. Amazon can even sell for very little profit and then benefit from all the software through the Amazon store. More importantly, Amazon is the only competitor that will have a marketplace to sell tablet hardware and content.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Fix
They would have shipped a bunch of Mac Pros if there were updated.
{Citation needed}
I would have bought a few.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerrySwitched26
Lenovo seems to be kicking ass.
Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Lenovo sells a lot of low margin devices in Asia. It doesn't do much good to have 50B in revenue if you only make 50M in profit. PCs will soon be a commodity like corn. HP recognized this problem and considered selling its PC division a year ago (note that it is the world leader). It isn't very exciting to be a PC vendor these days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
I think they would have had a chance if they would have called the device with the Metro UI and requiring all new apps to be vetted by their app store to be called Metro OS. There is literally no more windowing in that UI. I also think they've doubly and triply messed up by announcing an ARM and X86 version and then not having them ready for many month from now with no price point or sale date. At least when Google announced the Nexus 7 it had a price, a fairly specific ship date that was close, and you could pre-order immediately.
(Need analogy to describe having someone brilliant but then destroying it by doing other of plenty stupid things.)
Since the MS Surface presos was all talk, here's something that might fill the bill:
Mark Antony: "Friends, Romans, Countrymen... I got sumpin' I wanna' tell ya!"
- Bob Newhart -
They don't want to throw the market into disarray buy calling it a computer... but really, the iPad is a full portable computer. It doesn't have to look like a computer from 10 years ago to still be a computer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quadra 610
BRILLIANT decision by Apple to make Retina Macs.
These figures are for Q2 2012 - BEFORE the MBP Retina was released.
Time will tell how good the Retina MBPs sell.
I don't think desktops are dead for everybody. I think they just need to shrink in size and become high performance media devices. Some desktops come with the option to have an HDTV card. That is a good idea.
When manufacturers start making Mac Mini size high performance computers they will sell more of them. It would invigorate the market. I have two towers. I use just one of them and I have a Mac Book. I really would like a low power high performance computer for my desk. There is a German company doing this and those units look great. They come with i7 multi-core processors and plenty of RAM. They aren't sold in the USA. They are smaller than the Mac Mini in width but they are slightly taller. They also cost a couple of hundred dollars less than the Mini.
Have you seen micro-computers the size of a deck of playing cards? They are low power and low feature right now but they're very interesting. They run small versions of Linux. The only good future for desktop computers is the small form factor with high performance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun, UK
These figures are for Q2 2012 - BEFORE the MBP Retina was released.
Time will tell how good the Retina MBPs sell.
Based on my own personal experience in trying to get a rMBP at several Apple stores, they are selling like hotcakes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doh123
They don't want to throw the market into disarray buy calling it a computer... but really, the iPad is a full portable computer. It doesn't have to look like a computer from 10 years ago to still be a computer.
Without citing specific named software::
What jobs can I do on a [pc-era] computer that I can't do on an iPad?
and
What jobs can I do on an iPad that I can't do on a [pc-era] computer.
That's my point. It's not about making Windows sales from the Surface something substantial, but a last ditch effort to dig in so that can
desperatelyhopefully Windows OEMs can have a jumping off point in the tablet market.Quote:
Originally Posted by markbyrn
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
Microsoft: Hyping vaporware since 1985. Only this century, few give a fleeting care.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal
Based on my own personal experience in trying to get a rMBP at several Apple stores, they are selling like hotcakes.
Depends how many they manufactured in the first place. Demand for new Macs is traditionally at it's peak just after they're launched. The real test will come in 6 or 12 months when the pent up demand has been satisfied and the initial hype has gone. I'll be very interested to see if they can sustain a higher percentage of overall Mac sales than the 17" MBP.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbyrn
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
I watched the MS presentation and it was very amateurish and clumsy!
Use it on my lap without feeling like it's burning the lap?
I think those are flawed questions, like a false exclusivity. With tools, it's rarely about what one can do that the other can't that is the deciding point, but what can do the job better, faster, less maintenance, etc. I really don't have a problem with the classification as a media tablet, the classification doesn't mean it can't do anything outside of the named category, but that it's really good at that task.
Apple shipped 4% more units this quarter than the same quarter last year. 1901M this year / 1831M last year ~= 4% unit growth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by markbyrn
Perhaps although when Microsoft has to face the reality of actually selling this overhyped Surface gimmick, the impact on PC sales will be utterly negligible. That's just my educated guess of course but when you have a product with no price, no ship date, a new OS that isn't lighting the world up, and a restricted demo that was more about marketing than substance, one would be foolish to put their hopes on this Unicorn.
Actually, I kinda' feel sorry for Ballmer...
When he takes his morning "dump" he's gotta' know that that's the best it's gonna' be all day!
Perhaps, but Amazon has a big problem. There's a pretty strong move afoot to require sales taxes on Internet sales - even if you don't have a nexus in the state. That, combined with the fact that as Amazon grows, they need new warehouses, expanding the number of states they pay taxes (a la California), means that Amazon is likely to lose a key cost advantage.
Given that Amazon only makes a few percent on each sale, requiring the customer to pay 10% sales tax (for example) may shift a lot of Amazon customers back to brick and mortar. While I expect that Amazon will adapt and survive, it will sure take away much of their ability to subsidize loss leaders like the Kindle Fire (allegedly).
That shouldn't be hard. Apple doesn't publish breakdown by model, but one report said that the 17" was only a couple percent of MBP sales - which makes it insignificant in the big picture. The rMBP is likely to have a greater share than the 17" did. I would guess that almost everyone who would have otherwise bought a 17" MBP will buy a 15" rMBP. In addition, some percentage of people who would have otherwise bought the old 15" MBP will buy the 15" rMBP.
What do you mean? The 17-inch MBP isn't a big seller.
Retina Macs will rule the Mac lineup in due course. Beautiful Macs with gorgeous displays that run OS X. No problem.
I think it's a perception that anything less will be bogged down. Or like in all IT departments before 2007 where absolutely nothing was done without a Windows machine and a Blackberry. Maybe that's just my perception. It's like the whole FCPX debacle. At first everyone who did professional video editing absolutely despised it. Now I see lots of reviews where professionals are actually impressed with it and thrilled with the new version. Some people still hate it and have moved to Adobe Premier or Avid because they lost all faith in FCPX and Apple. That's their right to do if they see fit, but it would seem that a lot of people have either figured out FCPX and have made it work with their workflow or didn't need to figure anything out at all and it all just worked intuitively. A lot of reviewers now say that they don't understand what all the negativity was/is all about. The people who abandoned it did so because they possibly perceived that since it did things differently and that some features were eliminated in favor of other features that it is now an inferior product. Perhaps it really is inferior but some professionals are still using it and are happy with it. Maybe while it is not perceived as being as powerful as before, it is apparently still more than enough to get the job done.
I think that's why PCs are in decline...there are lesser machines now that are more than enough to get the job done. Soon enough that will probably include the iPad...much to the chagrin of many people. Hell, people are already including the MS Surface and that doesn't even exist yet!