Wall Street anticipating huge holiday quarter after Apple disappoints

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 45
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post


    almost everyone who wants an iphone or smart phone in general has one.



     


    That's not true.


     


    Quote:


    the people that don't have one generally don't care for one or can't afford it


     


    cell phone bills are becoming as hated as cable bills and people are looking at prepaid.




     


    Which is why the telecoms need to be forced to stop colluding.

  • Reply 22 of 45


    Now shorters and sharks smell Apple's blood. What's next?

  • Reply 23 of 45
    arlorarlor Posts: 512member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    Really?

    Apple's annual revenue growth has averaged over 50% per year for the past decade. Microsoft has averaged about 4% per year. When you consider the value of compounding, that difference is HUGE.


     


    Where are you getting those numbers?


     


    Using wikinvest.com and pulling the revenue for each year from 2001 to 2011, and calculating the percentage increase in revenue each year, I get an average of 37.2% for Apple over the past ten years and 16.7% for Microsoft. 


     


    You're right about the compounding, though: Microsoft's revenue has roughly tripled during the past decade (from about $7.5b to about $23.6b) and Apple's has increased by a factor of about twenty (from about $5.74b to about $108.25b). It's no wonder that investment advisers have outsized expectations from time to time.


     


    Things look good enough for Apple that I don't think there's any need to exaggerate the difference. A lot of other companies would be happy even to have *Microsoft's* "problems," much less Apple's! 

  • Reply 24 of 45
    tribalogicaltribalogical Posts: 1,181member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Arlor View Post


     


    Where are you getting those numbers?


     


    Using wikinvest.com and pulling the revenue for each year from 2001 to 2011, and calculating the percentage increase in revenue each year, I get an average of 37.2% for Apple over the past ten years and 16.7% for Microsoft. 


     


    You're right about the compounding, though: Microsoft's revenue has roughly tripled during the past decade (from about $7.5b to about $23.6b) and Apple's has increased by a factor of about twenty (from about $5.74b to about $108.25b). It's no wonder that investment advisers have outsized expectations from time to time.


     


    Things look good enough for Apple that I don't think there's any need to exaggerate the difference. A lot of other companies would be happy even to have *Microsoft's* "problems," much less Apple's! 



     


    Either way... Holding their stock for the past 10 years would have net you about a 100x earning on investment... 


     


    The stock has dropped off about 28 points today so far… if anyone can afford to buy it, now would be a good time to start...

  • Reply 25 of 45
    tribalogicaltribalogical Posts: 1,181member


    yes, the "disappointment" of "missed (overblown) expectations" creates a big 5% drop in the stock value… which translates to big bucks earning potential for the large institutional buyers who snap it up on the low end of that dip they created…?


     


    It'll be back up to $600 in no time… a quick $30 a share times a few million shares anyone? yeah… easy money...

  • Reply 26 of 45
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    That's not true.


     


     


    Which is why the telecoms need to be forced to stop colluding.



    that's the magic of competition. we have 4 carriers in the US covering the same space with different frequencies serving the same basic service.


     


    if you could magically provide a cheaper service, someone will do it. prepaid does it only because there is almost no advertising, no support, no stores and no something else. 


     


    i have AT&T but even when i looked at supposedly cheap sprint they were always more expensive than AT&T for family plans


     


    wireless is a commodity and the service is cheap but you have to pay for everything else to have a chance in the market. tv ads, stores and support to help people. its like cereal. compare the whole foods stuff to the leading brands. the price per pound is very close but Natures Path will have real sugar, real fruit and better quality. NO ADVERTISING

  • Reply 27 of 45
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    arlor wrote: »
    Where are you getting those numbers?

    Using wikinvest.com and pulling the revenue for each year from 2001 to 2011, and calculating the percentage increase in revenue each year, I get an average of 37.2% for Apple over the past ten years and 16.7% for Microsoft. 

    You're right about the compounding, though: Microsoft's revenue has roughly tripled during the past decade (from about $7.5b to about $23.6b) and Apple's has increased by a factor of about twenty (from about $5.74b to about $108.25b). It's no wonder that investment advisers have outsized expectations from time to time.

    Things look good enough for Apple that I don't think there's any need to exaggerate the difference. A lot of other companies would be happy even to have *Microsoft's* "problems," much less Apple's! 

    I don't remember what site I used.

    This site shows (for Microsoft):
    2002 $28.4 B
    2011 $69.9 B
    That's roughly a 9% annual increase.
    http://www.statista.com/statistics/155707/total-revenue-of-microsoft-since-2002/

    Apple:
    2002 $5.74 B
    2011 $108.3 B
    That's a 34% annual increase.
    http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Apple_(AAPL)/Data/Revenue/2001

    In any event, the claim that Microsoft had performed as well as Apple is absurd.
  • Reply 28 of 45
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,526member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Fairthrope View Post


    Now shorters and sharks smell Apple's blood. What's next?



    a $10 billion stock repurchase by Apple in 2013

  • Reply 29 of 45
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    I don't remember what site I used.

    This site shows (for Microsoft):

    2002 $28.4 B

    2011 $69.9 B

    That's roughly a 9% annual increase.

    http://www.statista.com/statistics/155707/total-revenue-of-microsoft-since-2002/

    Apple:

    2002 $5.74 B

    2011 $108.3 B

    That's a 34% annual increase.

    http://www.wikinvest.com/stock/Apple_(AAPL)/Data/Revenue/2001

    In any event, the claim that Microsoft had performed as well as Apple is absurd.


    my point was that going forward expect apple to average 10% growth per year. ask all the people around you who don't have an iphone, ask them why they don't have one and if they will get one. not too many people left who are buying a smartphone for the first time compared to current owners. yes there is china, but when you average it worldwide there is OK growth left. not the crazy 80% growth of the last few years. revenue/profit growth comes from new customers


     


    and a lot of people are going prepaid and keeping their phone for more than 2 years. 


     


    apple better have a mini ipad too. i have an ipad 2 but looking to buy a kindle fire. i have amazon prime and the kindle fire has free books and streaming content. ipad is better, but i'm looking for cheap this time

  • Reply 30 of 45
    anonymouseanonymouse Posts: 6,581member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Superbass View Post


    Well, stock prices are based on expectations; right now Apple's stock price (even after the big drop the other day) reflects expectations that from 2013-2016 Apple will grow at a similar rate to the Chinese Economy from 2005-2008. Of course, it seems people forget that a lot of Apple's investors are also Apple "fans" which further skews the stock price upward. and in turn creates the even greater need for Apple to meet unrealistic goals...



     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    Oh wow. Thanks fr the insight.

    /s


     


    Stock prices are at best only partly based on "expectations". In fact, they are based on a lot of non-rational criteria, thus the complete lack of logic for P/E of various companies. If only the stock market actually operated on rational principles.

  • Reply 31 of 45
    gatorguy wrote: »
    I believe they'll have an outstanding Holiday quarter. The new iPhone is almost certain to sport a larger display, making it the most instantaneously recognizable iPhone change since it's introduction. That by itself will attract even a good percentage of recent iPhone4S buyers to upgrade. There's also way to much smoke rising from news of a smaller iPad for it not to happen IMO. A cheaper Apple tablet would get a lot of gifting. Throw those two new products into the Holiday sales and I don't think 40M iPhones and 10M mini-iPads would be out of reason.

    So I expect incredible numbers from Apple.
    Who are you?.... And what have you done with Gatorguy?
  • Reply 32 of 45
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,583member
    fairthrope wrote: »
    Now shorters and sharks smell Apple's blood. What's next?

    Not from what I see. Off 4-5% today, which is a good chance to make some money (or lose it if you panic). The stock is already priced for slow steady growth; the only "problem" is that roughly 75% of their cash/investments are offshore, which limits what they can pay out in dividends. If the stock went to a 2.5% yield from a 1.8% yield then shorting becomes much more difficult.

    I understand their performance to come down to two things: 1) Can they limit the seasonal nature to revenues and profits without otherwise damaging their business; and 2) If the situation deteriorates or improves in Europe, will Apple be better or worse off than their competitors.

    If the US politicians can't figure out the difference between dogma and reality, the second leg of the stool breaks. That happening in the 4th calendar quarter could be very damaging to Apple.
  • Reply 33 of 45
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,583member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    I believe they'll have an outstanding Holiday quarter. The new iPhone is almost certain to sport a larger display, making it the most instantaneously recognizable iPhone change since it's introduction. That by itself will attract even a good percentage of recent iPhone4S buyers to upgrade. There's also way to much smoke rising from news of a smaller iPad for it not to happen IMO. A cheaper Apple tablet would get a lot of gifting. Throw those two new products into the Holiday sales and I don't think 40M iPhones and 10M mini-iPads would be out of reason.

    So I expect incredible numbers from Apple.
    Who are you?.... And what have you done with Gatorguy?

    Yeah... I'm finding myself agreeing. I can even picture situations where I would want to buy a 7" iPad (at $250). Arguably, situations where I could see buying a couple dozen of them if they had a good enough camera, but I'm not going to commit to that yet.
  • Reply 34 of 45
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,583member
    yes, the "disappointment" of "missed (overblown) expectations" creates a big 5% drop in the stock value… which translates to big bucks earning potential for the large institutional buyers who snap it up on the low end of that dip they created…?

    It'll be back up to $600 in no time… a quick $30 a share times a few million shares anyone? yeah… easy money...

    ...the market loves volatility. Accept, plan for it, it and move on. Not happy to be down as much as I am today, but I am pretty confident I have already recovered 16% of the loss by selling some puts. Next month is going to hurt when some puts come due, but it isn't the end of the world.
  • Reply 35 of 45
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member


    If Apple releases the next iPhone in October like last year that is going to be too late to affect the next quarterly earnings for Q412 which includes sales up to the end of Sept 2012.


     


    If people waiting for the next iPhone affected Q3 sales then they will also affect Q4 sales.


     


    If the only new products in Q3 are the Retina MBP and Mountain Lion I think the numbers could be challenging.


     


    That said Q113 should be a bumper period. I might even save up and buy some shares in mid January just ahead of their Q113 earnings call coz those numbers are going to be epic.

  • Reply 36 of 45
    techboytechboy Posts: 183member


    17 million ipads sold and they are still "disappointed"? There should be a reality between what is real and crap these analysts makes up and expects companies to deliver on paper. If Apple is private, they would be laughing all the way to the bank!

  • Reply 37 of 45


    Exactly.


     


    Concoct an artificially high 'expectation', and despite Apple beating it's OWN estimates, the moron greedy 'street' has to create an excuse to short the stock.


    Absolutely clueless.


     


    But hey, people need an excuse to buy in, and the institutions are trying to find a reason to accumulate more.


     


    Check out the volume and you'll see what's really happening.


     


    In a couple weeks or so it'll be back to where it was yesterday morning and all will be forgotten as Apple gets ready to start the next streak to becoming the first $Trillion company in history.


     


    I personally think Apple knows EXACTLY what it's doing with re: to the 'market'.


     


    F

     

  • Reply 38 of 45
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,583member
    shaun, uk wrote: »
    That said Q113 should be a bumper period. I might even save up and buy some shares in mid January just ahead of their Q113 earnings call coz those numbers are going to be epic.

    Always ask yourself if you know more than the "players" on a subject. I would say that your assessment is well understood at this point. Also, what happens if the new iPhone is released in mid-September? Are you going to lose your entry point?
  • Reply 39 of 45
    maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member


    I wish Apple could go public so they can tell those analyst to f**** off!


    Too bad publicly traded companies can't break even. At least your household can. Greedy people!

  • Reply 40 of 45
    shaun, ukshaun, uk Posts: 1,050member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post





    Always ask yourself if you know more than the "players" on a subject. I would say that your assessment is well understood at this point. Also, what happens if the new iPhone is released in mid-September? Are you going to lose your entry point?


     


    It's a fair point but if previous years are anything to go buy even if they announce mid Sept it won't be in the shops until at least a few weeks after and even then supply will be constrained. In order to affect the Q412 earnings they would really have to announce and release it late August, which is always possible. Either way you would know the release date with plenty of time to assess the likely impact on Q412 earnings.


     


    However I don't think they will do that. I think Tim Cook is happy to defer much of this revenue to Q113 in order to take the heat out of the share price, stabilise things for a while and then boom start fiscal 2013 off with a bang. That quarter would include new iPhone, new iPods, iPad Mini, 13" Retina MBP. Presumably they will try and stagger the release dates around the world to manage supply/demand and to defer some of the revenue into Jan/Feb/Mar to boost Q213 earnings ahead of the next iPad

Sign In or Register to comment.