If your barber starts asking for AAPL buy and sell advice, approach with caution. I don't believe there is an AAPL bubble (as a matter of fact, I think it is still terribly undervalued), but that does not mean a bubble cannot build around the stock.
As Cramer says though; "There is never a bad time to invest in Apple."
I agree. Sure, we'll see temporary dips, but the long trend is up. And now, with the dividend, it's sweeter. The dividend is low, by a percentage standard, but will increase regularly. That's something we can be pretty certain of.
Those types of predictions, IMHO, are worth the paper they're written on. Certainly not something I worry about in the least.
Also, I would imagine that much of the predictable impact of demographics in the West is probably incorporated into prices. Aging in the West will be counterbalanced by the emergence of India, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, etc (although not China, which has a rapidly aging population thanks to its one-child policies).
That said, it is probably fair to expect much lower returns on AAPL going forward. Even getting to $1000 in say, 3 years, implies a compounded annual return of just 12%. Compare that to the roughly 800% gain since Jan 2007 (which is when I got into the stock in a big way; my moment of epiphany was the iPhone intro!), or the approximate doubling, since Tim Cook took over as CEO a year ago. Those sorts of returns are history.
That's all very true. But it's from what we know. It's what we don't know that could change it. IF Apple comes out with the iPad Mini. IF Apple comes out with a Tv. IF Apple comes out with an auto control system. IF...etc.
The Apple of today is because of things we didn't know before they were presented to us. I'm reading why entering the Tv business isn't a good idea for Apple:
Mature industry.
Established players.
Apple never made a Tv.
Has no relationships with cable companies and content providers.
Cost of entry is too high.
Have we heard all of this before?
I wouldn't yet count out a new spurt of growth unrelated to their present main product bases.
The iPad chases after the aging demographic as well as the youth demo, so I think there is plenty of rapid growth left in that product. The iPhone has lots of competition, but few real "competitors" (if you know what I mean)... iPhone will continue to grow and I'm thinking they will have another category of product they'll bring out soon that will broaden the perception of what Apple is all about in the near future (1 to 2 years).
I read a financial article recently that said that about half of all iPads sold, were bought by business. Half! Over a million were bought in the education market last quarter, more than double YOY. At the same time, there were 1.64 million Windows machines sold there, and 520,000 Macs. A 10% drop in Windows sales, and a 4% increase in Mac sales.
These are just two bits of information, but there are many more, such as Mac sales increasing in business over the past year by 56%, where Windows computer sales fell 10%.
Everywhere you look, things are up. Even diminishing iPod sales maintain their over 70% marketshare.
It's true that at the moment AAPL is probably the best stock for making money, but that doesn't mean it can't go down. In a market collapse, it could lose half of its value. The question for those who are heavily weighted in AAPL, is if you would be OK with that, or would you wish that you had cashed out some of it before it tanked.
Uh uh..... If something like that happened, as far as I am concerned (and speaking for myself), it would be a buy-more-and-hold opportunity of a lifetime. I might even consider leveraging myself to do that.
(The real question you want to ask is, what happens to the value of the rest of your portfolio? What alternatives would you have, other than a pillow?)
Just curious what Microsoft's diversification is? Don't they make most of their money off of Windows and Office? And Google? Do they have diversified revenue streams or is it mostly advertising?
Microsoft is mostly Office and Windows. If you include server versions of Windows, which is in another division. Then they have software tools. They also have a commercial database.
Then, of course, they have the entertainment division, which was merged with the small devices division (keyboards, mice, etc.). They have a couple of other smaller areas as well such as the online division, mostly Bing.
Google is an Ad placement agency. They just happen to have their own places in which to place those Ads. As recently as two quarter's ago, before they had to combine Motorola's statements with their own, 97% of their gross and 97% of their net (profit) was derived from advertising, according to their balance sheet.
I read a financial article recently that said that about half of all iPads sold, were bought by business. Half! Over a million were bought in the education market last quarter, more than double YOY. At the same time, there were 1.64 million Windows machines sold there, and 520,000 Macs. A 10% drop in Windows sales, and a 4% increase in Mac sales.
These are just two bits of information, but there are many more, such as Mac sales increasing in business over the past year by 56%, where Windows computer sales fell 10%.
Everywhere you look, things are up. Even diminishing iPod sales maintain their over 70% marketshare.
Spot on. That's not counting the opportunities in India, China, healthcare, automobiles, living room,...... to name just a few of the more obvious ones!
Spot on. That's not counting the opportunities in India, China, healthcare, automobiles, living room,...... to name just a few of the more obvious ones!
Most people don't understand just how entrenched iPads have become in the business sector. Two reasons why the Mac didn't make it big in business:
One was that they came out two and a half years after the IBM PC. By then, there was a ton of business software out, and the IBM brand was irresistible.
Two was that SJ and his "computer as an appliance" was years ahead of its time, and back then, when computer sales were driven 90% by business, the appliance idea wasn't inviting, nor was the 9" screen.
But now, everything is different. IBM is out, the all-in-one is the biggest selling category of desktop personal computers to consumers, who are more than 50% of the computer buying public, and they're making inroads in business as well. Apple's all-in-one sales lead the industry.
Apple's notebooks have the biggest marketshare in the US, at least. And are growing very well. We all remember the days when it was thought that laptops were a waste, because they weren't powerful enough to do any "real"work on.
Now it's the iPad that has a three year advantage, and it's moving into businesses faster than the original PC did. There is a vast amount of business software available, much of it that will never be seen in the App Store by most people because it exists in the private business stores Apple allows organizations to set up. Much of this software is custom, just as there is much Windows custom software.
And this has to make Microsoft cringe, as one major reason business hasn't moved off Microsoft over the years was because of all of that custom software.
And then, of course, there are the millions, even tens of million of business employees who are finding, to their surprise, that they don't need Office after all! This will be a major problem for Microsoft, as it is the only real reason they are telling people they will want Win 8 tablets, even though you need a keyboard and trackpad to use them for Office, and that includes the RT version as well.
La de da!
The iPhone is pushing out RIM and Microsoft in corporate phones. In fact, I recently read an article in Infoworld where it was said that just allowing people to bring in iPhones to work wasn't exactly a BYOD concept. But that's what's happening. And Apple just made it even better for corporations with "app lock". This is a sign that Apple is becoming more enterprise friendly, and that's a good thing.
...SJ and his "computer as an appliance" was years ahead of its time, and back then, when computer sales were driven 90% by business, the appliance idea wasn't inviting, nor was the 9" screen.
If I recall correctly, it was Larry Ellison who was pushing the computer as "appliance" idea. No?
After wasting away for 2 years in depression and anger, I finally just let it go in a dramatic way that was really heartfelt. Within 2 weeks of that letting go moment I got a call from the cross-town Apple Reseller rival of my old company. They wanted to sell and they were really in a financial bind, so I could get it dirt cheap, which was great because I didn't have any disposable income. I would have to take a second mortgage out on my home. And that's exactly what I did. This was back in the spring of 2004, just before Apple would begin the most incredible comeback in business history. But I had my own comeback to accomplish and I dug right in. Long story short, after 8.5 years in business, my store blows that other store out of the water in almost every way. The ironic twist to this story -- my former partners were approached before I was and given the first opportunity to buy that cross-town rival store, but they laughed and turned it down. That's the second time they did me a huge favor without meaning to.
Apple has been the most amazing good-luck charm in my life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macguru
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
From the link: "...the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased by more than 95% since 1913."
Think about Vanderbilt's fortune in the late 1870‘s was $340 million. That was an inconceivable amount at the time, and including inflation, would have him at the top today.
When the Standard Oil Trust reached $1 billion, in 1901, I think it was, that was like reaching a trillion today.
My home was worth in the low $30 thousands during the mid fifties, I've been told. I don't even even want to say what it's worth today with inflation, you might not believe it! Even going from 1984, when we bought it, inflation, and other things, I suppose, have had it go up almost eight times.
This is a great little site, too bad he hasn't updated it since 2010, though I suppose there are others like it.
Comments
As Cramer says though; "There is never a bad time to invest in Apple."
I agree. Sure, we'll see temporary dips, but the long trend is up. And now, with the dividend, it's sweeter. The dividend is low, by a percentage standard, but will increase regularly. That's something we can be pretty certain of.
That's all very true. But it's from what we know. It's what we don't know that could change it. IF Apple comes out with the iPad Mini. IF Apple comes out with a Tv. IF Apple comes out with an auto control system. IF...etc.
The Apple of today is because of things we didn't know before they were presented to us. I'm reading why entering the Tv business isn't a good idea for Apple:
Mature industry.
Established players.
Apple never made a Tv.
Has no relationships with cable companies and content providers.
Cost of entry is too high.
Have we heard all of this before?
I wouldn't yet count out a new spurt of growth unrelated to their present main product bases.
Originally Posted by melgross
…I imaging, if I'm willing to hold long enough, I'll come out ahead. Don't know how long it will take though.
You're jumping on a fad that won't be remembered at the turn of next decade.
I read a financial article recently that said that about half of all iPads sold, were bought by business. Half! Over a million were bought in the education market last quarter, more than double YOY. At the same time, there were 1.64 million Windows machines sold there, and 520,000 Macs. A 10% drop in Windows sales, and a 4% increase in Mac sales.
These are just two bits of information, but there are many more, such as Mac sales increasing in business over the past year by 56%, where Windows computer sales fell 10%.
Everywhere you look, things are up. Even diminishing iPod sales maintain their over 70% marketshare.
Uh uh..... If something like that happened, as far as I am concerned (and speaking for myself), it would be a buy-more-and-hold opportunity of a lifetime. I might even consider leveraging myself to do that.
(The real question you want to ask is, what happens to the value of the rest of your portfolio? What alternatives would you have, other than a pillow?)
Microsoft is mostly Office and Windows. If you include server versions of Windows, which is in another division. Then they have software tools. They also have a commercial database.
Then, of course, they have the entertainment division, which was merged with the small devices division (keyboards, mice, etc.). They have a couple of other smaller areas as well such as the online division, mostly Bing.
Google is an Ad placement agency. They just happen to have their own places in which to place those Ads. As recently as two quarter's ago, before they had to combine Motorola's statements with their own, 97% of their gross and 97% of their net (profit) was derived from advertising, according to their balance sheet.
I don't think so. They'll be around for a while. I'm just waiting until the right time. We'll see. It's not that much of an investment to matter.
Spot on. That's not counting the opportunities in India, China, healthcare, automobiles, living room,...... to name just a few of the more obvious ones!
Most people don't understand just how entrenched iPads have become in the business sector. Two reasons why the Mac didn't make it big in business:
One was that they came out two and a half years after the IBM PC. By then, there was a ton of business software out, and the IBM brand was irresistible.
Two was that SJ and his "computer as an appliance" was years ahead of its time, and back then, when computer sales were driven 90% by business, the appliance idea wasn't inviting, nor was the 9" screen.
But now, everything is different. IBM is out, the all-in-one is the biggest selling category of desktop personal computers to consumers, who are more than 50% of the computer buying public, and they're making inroads in business as well. Apple's all-in-one sales lead the industry.
Apple's notebooks have the biggest marketshare in the US, at least. And are growing very well. We all remember the days when it was thought that laptops were a waste, because they weren't powerful enough to do any "real"work on.
Now it's the iPad that has a three year advantage, and it's moving into businesses faster than the original PC did. There is a vast amount of business software available, much of it that will never be seen in the App Store by most people because it exists in the private business stores Apple allows organizations to set up. Much of this software is custom, just as there is much Windows custom software.
And this has to make Microsoft cringe, as one major reason business hasn't moved off Microsoft over the years was because of all of that custom software.
And then, of course, there are the millions, even tens of million of business employees who are finding, to their surprise, that they don't need Office after all! This will be a major problem for Microsoft, as it is the only real reason they are telling people they will want Win 8 tablets, even though you need a keyboard and trackpad to use them for Office, and that includes the RT version as well.
La de da!
The iPhone is pushing out RIM and Microsoft in corporate phones. In fact, I recently read an article in Infoworld where it was said that just allowing people to bring in iPhones to work wasn't exactly a BYOD concept. But that's what's happening. And Apple just made it even better for corporations with "app lock". This is a sign that Apple is becoming more enterprise friendly, and that's a good thing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
...SJ and his "computer as an appliance" was years ahead of its time, and back then, when computer sales were driven 90% by business, the appliance idea wasn't inviting, nor was the 9" screen.
If I recall correctly, it was Larry Ellison who was pushing the computer as "appliance" idea. No?
He was pushing something like that. But don't forget that SJ and Ellison were very good friends, and so where do you think he got the idea from?
So the other part of the story goes like this:
After wasting away for 2 years in depression and anger, I finally just let it go in a dramatic way that was really heartfelt. Within 2 weeks of that letting go moment I got a call from the cross-town Apple Reseller rival of my old company. They wanted to sell and they were really in a financial bind, so I could get it dirt cheap, which was great because I didn't have any disposable income. I would have to take a second mortgage out on my home. And that's exactly what I did. This was back in the spring of 2004, just before Apple would begin the most incredible comeback in business history. But I had my own comeback to accomplish and I dug right in. Long story short, after 8.5 years in business, my store blows that other store out of the water in almost every way. The ironic twist to this story -- my former partners were approached before I was and given the first opportunity to buy that cross-town rival store, but they laughed and turned it down. That's the second time they did me a huge favor without meaning to.
Apple has been the most amazing good-luck charm in my life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by macguru
Story of total vindication in the Apple Reseller world. I formed an Apple Reseller company 12 years ago with 3 other partners. Within a years time, the 3 three of them conspired to oust me, which they did. But they had to buy be out, which they did. Not sure what possessed me at the time. I was somewhat depressed. But the iPod was coming on strong and the iTunes store was just getting rolled out. So I took a big leap of faith and invested $10,000 of my buyout money into Apple. Today that same investment is worth $700,000. So I wouldn't say my old business partners did me a huge favor 12 years ago, because that gives them too much credit. After all, their intention was to screw me. But I wouldn't have it any other way. There's a lot more vindication to this story too if anyone wants to hear about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
Do tell.
So the other part of the story goes like this:
...
Apple has been the most amazing good-luck charm in my life.
Great story (both halves), thanks for sharing. Sure makes me curious about what city you're in, but I understand if you don't want to share that.South Dakota. That narrows it down quite a bit.
Ah, I can tell you that being a millionaire isn't what it used to was.
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross
Ah, I can tell you that being a millionaire isn't what it used to was.
Tell me about it: http://blogs.wsj.com/wallet/2009/01/28/the-buying-power-of-a-dollar-on-a-downswing/
From the link: "...the purchasing power of the dollar has decreased by more than 95% since 1913."
Think about Vanderbilt's fortune in the late 1870‘s was $340 million. That was an inconceivable amount at the time, and including inflation, would have him at the top today.
When the Standard Oil Trust reached $1 billion, in 1901, I think it was, that was like reaching a trillion today.
My home was worth in the low $30 thousands during the mid fifties, I've been told. I don't even even want to say what it's worth today with inflation, you might not believe it! Even going from 1984, when we bought it, inflation, and other things, I suppose, have had it go up almost eight times.
This is a great little site, too bad he hasn't updated it since 2010, though I suppose there are others like it.
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/