Your ignorance is showing. This is in fact the single most accurate Apple analyst in the market, as well as the most conservative in making buy recommendations. His accuracy has been 100%, and right on the mark in terms of timing every single time.
When Apple was $13 I didn't buy it because I was still in grade school, and not an investor.
Yes market cap matters. Market cap determines the value of the stock, not the dollar price. For example: Google's SP is higher than Apple's, but Apple as a company is worth more.
Market saturation doesn't mean that Apple couldn't sell more. It means that the markets themselves already have reached an equilibrium in the total amount of devices supplied vs. devices demanded. If the market itself only grows so much, then to increase sales you need to differentiate. Apple has done very well on differentiation, but not so well that they'll be earning 500 billion in revenue in 5 years just off iPhones and iPads, just as an example. Their biggest growth has come from creating new markets for themselves. Look at the iPod, sales are declining and its no longer a significant product for Apple's growth.
…you don't seem to comprehend the fact that every iPhone and iPad sold is also an iPod thus iPod sales have increased exponentially, just not as a discrete device. On top of that, the average selling price, and margin dollars, of these two "combined use" products that have replaced some discreet iPod sales are significantly higher.
While the technical analysis is no doubt excellent, I have to wonder whether large scale global events might not throw a spanner in the works.
I suspect the Euro is doomed. As European leaders do not seem to have a strategy for an orderly dissolution of the currency, the end game will likely be a disorderly collapse that might well be catastrophic. I doubt whether Apple's sales would be unscathed in the aftermath.
…you don't seem to comprehend the fact that every iPhone and iPad sold is also an iPod thus iPod sales have increased exponentially, just not as a discrete device. On top of that, the average selling price, and margin dollars, of these two "combined use" products that have replaced some discreet iPod sales are significantly higher.
Of course I know that iPhones are going to cannibalize iPod sales and iPads cannibalize laptop sales. And I'm well aware of all the margins involved. The point is, that market demand for smartphones is met, meaning we're unlikely to continue seeing the growth Apple has seen in the past without new product lines altogether. Which I'm not even ruling out. Just saying that 40% growth every year likely won't continue to 2016... Once market equilibrium is reached Apple can grow on differentiation, but it will be a lower growth rate (with the possibility for contraction).
I don't know why I even bother here. If you don't think Apple stock is going to be $5000 dollars in a few years I guess you're not welcome here? This isn't an investing forum, it's a pumpers forum.
haha... "in-other-words, I'm not saying anything useful".... yet it is actually one of the more intelligent posts yet... funny stuff.... we are kind of getting to a philosophical discussion here... The finite mean part of it... It must have a finite mean right? But what about inflation..?? What about expanding populations? I guess I am asking the question, does the mean need to finite, or can apple just continue to grow, albeit at slower rates as it gets larger....??
Well, if inflation continues to be positive and Apple's stock continues to hold steady (inflation adjusted) or increase (or even decrease as long as it decreases less than the amount of inflation increases), then I guess Apple's long-term mean stock price wouldn't be finite. Hard to imagine in reality, but mathematically it is certainly possible. Of course it will always be finite when measured, but as long as the measurement isn't done at infinity it won't represent Apple's long-term mean stock price.
I don't think expanding populations have anything to do with it, though they might aid in a continuously increasing inflation. The chances of inflation always increasing is about as small as the changes of Apple's stock always increasing. Both are approximately zero.
Apple has a steady pe of 15, but ex-cash it's decreasing. Why every analyst doesn't see this as a screaming buy is beyond me. A higher dividend will probably start to get people's attention.
Apple has a steady pe of 15, but ex-cash it's decreasing. Why every analyst doesn't see this as a screaming buy is beyond me. A higher dividend will probably start to get people's attention.
Absolutely a higher dividend would help. In the world of mega-cap stocks, dividends (and whatever financial numbers analysts believe will lead to a higher dividend) are really all that matters.
Well Andy, it went below $615 unlike you expected. Not holding it against you, because of all of the bad tech news recently. With 30min of trading left, I'm debating how much I should dump in today.........
Screw the naysayers, the bears and other clueless people.
I loaded up on AAPL today, getting ready for the lift off, happening soon.
Do I remember you mentioning loading up on Apple when it was a bit over $700 a few weeks ago? I don't mean anything by that, just doing a memory check.
Do I remember you mentioning loading up on Apple when it was a bit over $700 a few weeks ago? I don't mean anything by that, just doing a memory check.
No, that definitely wasn't me. I'd been laying low recently.
Screw the naysayers, the bears and other clueless people.
I loaded up on AAPL today, getting ready for the lift off, happening soon.
I loaded up at the end of September @ $680. They've been sliding ever since!
I'm in for the long term and have no worry that they'll recover. But it sure would have been nice to have bought a few more shares. I'm contemplating moving some more over to AAPL. This has been a pretty big dip.
I use Spread Betting with 20X leverage. Sell on a high, buy on a low, a few times a year with that kind of leverage cranked up and you can get silly returns.
I don't even push the leverage that hard. Could easily have been 30X had I had the nerve.
A friend of mine had 20 X his initial equity within just 6 months last year. But he was in some dark places at times and taking risks well beyond that which I feel comfortable with.
Had he continued that run for the next 6 months he would have had 400 X his initial equity in 1 year...!
The "law of large numbers"is twaddle in my opinion. But I agree, it will reach a plateau, but that time is not now.
Andy Zacky is usually full of shit though. Long term correct, but with suspicious short term timing. The fact that he say buy now, makes me think it will hit the 500's before it hits $1k
Well done sir. How did you miss being blinded by the Zaky-light? And where do you see it bottoming out?
Comments
Your ignorance is showing. This is in fact the single most accurate Apple analyst in the market, as well as the most conservative in making buy recommendations. His accuracy has been 100%, and right on the mark in terms of timing every single time.
…you don't seem to comprehend the fact that every iPhone and iPad sold is also an iPod thus iPod sales have increased exponentially, just not as a discrete device. On top of that, the average selling price, and margin dollars, of these two "combined use" products that have replaced some discreet iPod sales are significantly higher.
While the technical analysis is no doubt excellent, I have to wonder whether large scale global events might not throw a spanner in the works.
I suspect the Euro is doomed. As European leaders do not seem to have a strategy for an orderly dissolution of the currency, the end game will likely be a disorderly collapse that might well be catastrophic. I doubt whether Apple's sales would be unscathed in the aftermath.
Quote:
Originally Posted by FreeRange
…you don't seem to comprehend the fact that every iPhone and iPad sold is also an iPod thus iPod sales have increased exponentially, just not as a discrete device. On top of that, the average selling price, and margin dollars, of these two "combined use" products that have replaced some discreet iPod sales are significantly higher.
Of course I know that iPhones are going to cannibalize iPod sales and iPads cannibalize laptop sales. And I'm well aware of all the margins involved. The point is, that market demand for smartphones is met, meaning we're unlikely to continue seeing the growth Apple has seen in the past without new product lines altogether. Which I'm not even ruling out. Just saying that 40% growth every year likely won't continue to 2016... Once market equilibrium is reached Apple can grow on differentiation, but it will be a lower growth rate (with the possibility for contraction).
I don't know why I even bother here. If you don't think Apple stock is going to be $5000 dollars in a few years I guess you're not welcome here? This isn't an investing forum, it's a pumpers forum.
FWIW..." be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful "
Warren Buffett
Quote:
Originally Posted by ko024
haha... "in-other-words, I'm not saying anything useful".... yet it is actually one of the more intelligent posts yet... funny stuff.... we are kind of getting to a philosophical discussion here... The finite mean part of it... It must have a finite mean right? But what about inflation..?? What about expanding populations? I guess I am asking the question, does the mean need to finite, or can apple just continue to grow, albeit at slower rates as it gets larger....??
Well, if inflation continues to be positive and Apple's stock continues to hold steady (inflation adjusted) or increase (or even decrease as long as it decreases less than the amount of inflation increases), then I guess Apple's long-term mean stock price wouldn't be finite. Hard to imagine in reality, but mathematically it is certainly possible. Of course it will always be finite when measured, but as long as the measurement isn't done at infinity it won't represent Apple's long-term mean stock price.
I don't think expanding populations have anything to do with it, though they might aid in a continuously increasing inflation. The chances of inflation always increasing is about as small as the changes of Apple's stock always increasing. Both are approximately zero.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ifij775
Apple has a steady pe of 15, but ex-cash it's decreasing. Why every analyst doesn't see this as a screaming buy is beyond me. A higher dividend will probably start to get people's attention.
Absolutely a higher dividend would help. In the world of mega-cap stocks, dividends (and whatever financial numbers analysts believe will lead to a higher dividend) are really all that matters.
Well Andy, it went below $615 unlike you expected. Not holding it against you, because of all of the bad tech news recently. With 30min of trading left, I'm debating how much I should dump in today.........
Screw the naysayers, the bears and other clueless people.
I loaded up on AAPL today, getting ready for the lift off, happening soon.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
Screw the naysayers, the bears and other clueless people.
I loaded up on AAPL today, getting ready for the lift off, happening soon.
Do I remember you mentioning loading up on Apple when it was a bit over $700 a few weeks ago? I don't mean anything by that, just doing a memory check.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatorguy
Do I remember you mentioning loading up on Apple when it was a bit over $700 a few weeks ago? I don't mean anything by that, just doing a memory check.
No, that definitely wasn't me. I'd been laying low recently.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jnjnjn
In the Netherlands we would say: "een broodje gebakken lucht".
J.
And I would say, in response..." lege, ongefundeerde commentaar."
Quote:
Originally Posted by Apple ][
Screw the naysayers, the bears and other clueless people.
I loaded up on AAPL today, getting ready for the lift off, happening soon.
I loaded up at the end of September @ $680. They've been sliding ever since!
I'm in for the long term and have no worry that they'll recover. But it sure would have been nice to have bought a few more shares. I'm contemplating moving some more over to AAPL. This has been a pretty big dip.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity
I use Spread Betting with 20X leverage. Sell on a high, buy on a low, a few times a year with that kind of leverage cranked up and you can get silly returns.
I don't even push the leverage that hard. Could easily have been 30X had I had the nerve.
A friend of mine had 20 X his initial equity within just 6 months last year. But he was in some dark places at times and taking risks well beyond that which I feel comfortable with.
Had he continued that run for the next 6 months he would have had 400 X his initial equity in 1 year...!
Are you using bull call spread?
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity
The "law of large numbers"is twaddle in my opinion. But I agree, it will reach a plateau, but that time is not now.
Andy Zacky is usually full of shit though. Long term correct, but with suspicious short term timing. The fact that he say buy now, makes me think it will hit the 500's before it hits $1k
Well done sir. How did you miss being blinded by the Zaky-light? And where do you see it bottoming out?