Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?
Hmmm.. $640/share sounds a bit too high. I sold all my shares at $620, but will buy more @$450.
Well, the stock price doubled from Nov 2011 to Sept, 2012, I think that alone is a good reason to expect a correction.
Their tablet market share just dropped from 65% to 50% from previous quarter, according to WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203347104578103000176188528.html?mod=googlenews_wsj). While iPad mini and iPhone 5 are selling well, user reviews aren't, let's be honest, as stellar. Supply shortage, while failing to meet expectation, isn't necessarily something you want to brag about. Then you also have to consider the potential fiscal cliff and capital gain tax hikes next year (Obama). Sure, MS Surface isn't really a threat, but Android is still going strong - I see Galaxy S3's everywhere, in school / work / commute (which wasn't true for the S2).
That being said, it will probably go back up to $600's (dunno when).
That explains it, then¡ Those speakers are terrible¡
Please tell me I used the right character… it looks different from the way it appears in Solipsism's posts. I just used the Spanish leading exclamation mark…
Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?
So Cramer says sell, based on the lack of near-term catalyst to drive the stock up, and to realize gains in a lower tax environment.
What I don't know is if people are really stupid, really smart... or where the split lies. I started realizing long-term gains back in first quarter, with the goal of not trying to carry over too many gains into next year. I would have assumed most investors would do the same-- some kind of tax increase was inevitable no matter what happened in the election. You want to spread that activity out over time for some diversity though.
Where I was dumb is in figuring that the F4Q numbers would be great and AAPL would pop up to around $750, and I got myself over-exposed, weighting too heavily in November puts. I didn't think about the fact that there are a whole lot of people with much longer term gains that are unrealized that still haven't sold. Do they take their 200% gains today with 15% tax, or wait six months and get to 300% gains at 25%? What is their incentive to not sell and buy back at the same price?
What I don't get is pretty straightforward though: where would Apple's earnings need to be for the next 12 months to justify the current stock price? They have $120B in cash, so that seems like an easy floor. Ford is the closest "undervalued" company I can find... they are at a 2.5 multiple...
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slurpy
Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?
Hmmm.. $640/share sounds a bit too high. I sold all my shares at $620, but will buy more @$450.
Well, the stock price doubled from Nov 2011 to Sept, 2012, I think that alone is a good reason to expect a correction.
Their tablet market share just dropped from 65% to 50% from previous quarter, according to WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203347104578103000176188528.html?mod=googlenews_wsj). While iPad mini and iPhone 5 are selling well, user reviews aren't, let's be honest, as stellar. Supply shortage, while failing to meet expectation, isn't necessarily something you want to brag about. Then you also have to consider the potential fiscal cliff and capital gain tax hikes next year (Obama). Sure, MS Surface isn't really a threat, but Android is still going strong - I see Galaxy S3's everywhere, in school / work / commute (which wasn't true for the S2).
That being said, it will probably go back up to $600's (dunno when).
It's correct and I think one is sufficient.
So you're the one that "Mushed" the stock?
What I don't know is if people are really stupid, really smart... or where the split lies. I started realizing long-term gains back in first quarter, with the goal of not trying to carry over too many gains into next year. I would have assumed most investors would do the same-- some kind of tax increase was inevitable no matter what happened in the election. You want to spread that activity out over time for some diversity though.
Where I was dumb is in figuring that the F4Q numbers would be great and AAPL would pop up to around $750, and I got myself over-exposed, weighting too heavily in November puts. I didn't think about the fact that there are a whole lot of people with much longer term gains that are unrealized that still haven't sold. Do they take their 200% gains today with 15% tax, or wait six months and get to 300% gains at 25%? What is their incentive to not sell and buy back at the same price?
What I don't get is pretty straightforward though: where would Apple's earnings need to be for the next 12 months to justify the current stock price? They have $120B in cash, so that seems like an easy floor. Ford is the closest "undervalued" company I can find... they are at a 2.5 multiple...