Pedro is a nob. His posts, in a variety of threads, show that his business sense goes no further than whether to up size from small to medium fries at his full time gig. And he answers his own questions to boot. Classic....
Apple will sell 50 million iPhones, 25 million iPads (12,5 million each), 20 million iPods (especially the touch model), and 6 million Macs.
If Apple does not sell this amount of devices, I expect the stock to go as low as 450, even if it should be 1000 ALREADY (growth, growth potential, the only ones innovating since 2000, by far the biggest difference in quality between Apple devices and competitors, huge amounts of net profit).
Why those numbers? If Apple fails to meet ALL (or more) these numbers, bad press will come. Apple can sell 400 million iDevices this quarter, but if they sell 5 million macs, the press will say Apple should stop making them. If Apple sells less than 20 million iPods, no matter what, the main news will be: "iPod is dead. what next? is apple doomed?". You can see the trend here... Hell, Apple can even sell more/better than that, but if the mini outsells the 9.7" iPad, expect the stock to drop because of concerns related with margins and average price per iPad sold.
Am I wrong? I think I'm not.
People forget that good analysts DO NOT EXIST, because if you are a good analyst, you do not need to work for the rest of your live.
Stupid people (Analysts, for example) are the ones responsible for this time of difficulty. They are the ones that start rumors, hype, create expectations and spread fear. Apple Stock is a great example. There's no logic behind it, just stupid people.
From the way the stock price is moving I'd say that the numbers on the 23rd aren't that important. I'm guessing that it's the numbers in April and beyond that they want to hear about. If Apple has mind bending iPad numbers on the 23rd and a record number of iPhones then investors might believe that Apple is on the right track and keep AAPL above the $600 mark. If the iPad numbers are just average then I can see an initial rise in the stock well into the $600s but then it will settle back into the $500s and possibly below.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by pedromartins
Ok, nobody but me has the balls to say it. (/s)
Apple will sell 50 million iPhones, 25 million iPads (12,5 million each), 20 million iPods (especially the touch model), and 6 million Macs.
If Apple does not sell this amount of devices, I expect the stock to go as low as 450, even if it should be 1000 ALREADY (growth, growth potential, the only ones innovating since 2000, by far the biggest difference in quality between Apple devices and competitors, huge amounts of net profit).
Why those numbers? If Apple fails to meet ALL (or more) these numbers, bad press will come. Apple can sell 400 million iDevices this quarter, but if they sell 5 million macs, the press will say Apple should stop making them. If Apple sells less than 20 million iPods, no matter what, the main news will be: "iPod is dead. what next? is apple doomed?". You can see the trend here... Hell, Apple can even sell more/better than that, but if the mini outsells the 9.7" iPad, expect the stock to drop because of concerns related with margins and average price per iPad sold.
Am I wrong? I think I'm not.
People forget that good analysts DO NOT EXIST, because if you are a good analyst, you do not need to work for the rest of your live.
Stupid people (Analysts, for example) are the ones responsible for this time of difficulty. They are the ones that start rumors, hype, create expectations and spread fear. Apple Stock is a great example. There's no logic behind it, just stupid people.
From the way the stock price is moving I'd say that the numbers on the 23rd aren't that important. I'm guessing that it's the numbers in April and beyond that they want to hear about. If Apple has mind bending iPad numbers on the 23rd and a record number of iPhones then investors might believe that Apple is on the right track and keep AAPL above the $600 mark. If the iPad numbers are just average then I can see an initial rise in the stock well into the $600s but then it will settle back into the $500s and possibly below.