Tablets predicted to surpass notebook PC shipments this year

2

Comments

  • Reply 21 of 52
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 5,854member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maclancer View Post


    Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes and you will get a PC killer right there.





    Right.  Because since you're discussing more tech-saavy uses, it's not like there are tons of ways already to do just that. :/



    For the majority of tablet users, it's a non-issue.

  • Reply 22 of 52
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    gazoobee wrote: »
    To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  

    Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  

    In the look only. I don't think any Chromebooks are running Intel Core CPUs, which I think is a requirements for Intel's classification.
  • Reply 23 of 52
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,756member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by maclancer View Post


    Or wait until the iPad will be able to save any file from the web or download any video content outside of the apple store or iTunes 



     


    What are you talking about?


     


    It does. It's been doing that for a long time. Standard. No jailbreaks. 


     


    PDF, AVi, MKV, WMV, everything. Can be opened in any number of apps. Azul media player, iFiles, ZenViewer, etc. Can be downloaded in so many ways. iCab Browser, iDownloader, etc. There is so much functionality to some apps out there, it's mind-blwoing, but should really come as no surprise. 


     


    There's an app for everything. 

  • Reply 24 of 52
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,321member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gazoobee View Post


     


    To be a Netbook a computer has to be very small, very slow, and very difficult, if not impossible to actually use to get anything done.  Chrome Books come close to being Netbooks just because of the horrible software, but they are generally bigger, and can be used to do some actual work.  


     


    Technically, a Chrome Book is an "Ultrabook" which is basically a copy of the MacBook Air design, but with a lower quality spec.  



    Have you spent any time using a Chromebook? This article's author feels quite the opposite about it's having "horrible software"


    http://www.zdnet.com/google-chromebook-3-months-in-7000009563/

  • Reply 25 of 52
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member


    Re: "...but in 2013 a new class of small tablets will take over the market..."


     


    Maybe it's time Apple shipped a smaller iPad.  An iPad mini or iPad nano or something.


     


    Oh wait.  Yeah, never mind.  Somebody call NPD.  Please.

  • Reply 26 of 52
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    gazoobee wrote: »
    The part after 2014 on this graph, where they assume that the growth of tablets will start to slow down, is pretty obviously just a wild guess.  

    I particularly like the part where they list sales by screen size going several years into the future -and predict massive sales for a few screen sizes that don't even exist today.
  • Reply 27 of 52
    ecsecs Posts: 307member


    The point isn't "average user" vs "power user", but "entertainment" vs "productivity". In other words, iOS is well suited for entertainment and communication needs, but on the other hand it's poor at productivity. You really need a filesystem for productivity tasks, no matter if you're a power user or an average user. But sure, for entertainment and communication, no filesystem is needed.


     


    How are you supposed to use a paint app for drawing figures that then you need to insert in a text document, which in turn needs to be exported as PDF, and do this without a file system? And, even if you can (after endless "send to" apps connections), what do you do if your boss then tells you to modify the figures. How do you reinsert the new figures in the text document, regenerate the PDF, etc, without a file system?


     


    Yes, sure, you can, but once you realize the number of "send to" connections needed, it's obvious you're not being productive.


     


    In other words, tablets will surpass notebooks because either people won't use them for productivity, or otherwise they'll be buying a tablet with a filesystem if they need productive use.

  • Reply 28 of 52
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member


    I haven't hit that limit (though I'm close on my standard iPad) but isn't that (larger storage capacity than 64GB) what the Cloud is largely for? Granted that pretty much mandates LTE to supplement WiFi but evenso.

  • Reply 29 of 52
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    ecs wrote: »
    The point isn't "average user" vs "power user", but "entertainment" vs "productivity". In other words, iOS is well suited for entertainment and communication needs, but on the other hand it's poor at productivity. You really need a filesystem for productivity tasks, no matter if you're a power user or an average user. But sure, for entertainment and communication, no filesystem is needed.

    That's true - only if your version of 'productivity' is the only one that exists.

    Ask the American Airlines and other pilots who are using iPads for their manuals rather than paper books.

    Ask the doctors who are using iPads for xray evaluation.

    Ask the people who are using iPads at trade shows to demonstrate their products.

    Ask the service people who keep their manuals on their iPads so they don't have to carry 100 pounds of books.

    The iPad is quite useful for 'productivity'. It is not, however, a full blown laptop computer. The two statements are not contradictory.
  • Reply 30 of 52
    thepixeldocthepixeldoc Posts: 2,257member
    I think the next killer device, whether from Apple or a 3rd party will be a headless home server... call it a 'Mi-Cloud'. A device that is 'headless' and configuration is done through an iOS app and/or browser. Storage capable AppleTV (again)?... TimeCapsule?... Airport Extreme?...or something simple as this:

    http://www.tuaw.com/2013/01/08/ces-2013-kanex-introduces-medrive-a-simple-file-server-for-ide/

    I realize there are NAS devices now... but they are scary for the average consumer to set up and maintain. Add in affordable gigabyte streaming with new 802.11ac chips/routers, additional storage through USB or TB... and this type of device is a no-brainer for just about every household with an iOS/mobile device.

    Adding to the need of such a device, I think the days of Apple being able to charge $100,00 for doubled storage is coming to an end shortly in order to stay price-competitive. Not everyone needs a Notebook or PC even today, with iCloud, Amazon, gdrive, skydrive, Dropbox, etc. However for some people, the cloud is a scary place and many are skeptical of it's ubiquity.

    @maclancer -- It is on such a device where pictures, videos, documents of all kinds can be saved and recalled at any time.... and with Smart Folders and scripts... sent, saved, converted, organized (folder hierarchy for example), etc. however you like. Even back to your iOS device. Until that day, there's many an app that can save just about any document ever created... including video: check out vDownload.

    @DA -- I'm positive in the very near future SIM trays will be on all tablets and no longer be an expensive option. At that point, there will be no reason NOT to include telephony options on every iOS device. This certainly makes more sense than adding 3g/LTE to notebooks, where USB sticks will suffice until the time when laptops are no longer needed by most consumers, which will be upon us faster than any of us can imagine.

    In a truly perfect world, LTE will reach "full coverage" ASAP, and to the point competition can play it's role in bringing down monthly prices and more generous data caps are the norm. At that point, 128gb storage will be the max that I can imagine anyone needing on a mobile device for a long time. Half of that 128gb will surely be RAM disk.

    My predictions:

    [LIST=1]
    [*]
    [*] I'm going with the 90/10 tablet/notebook split within 2 years.
    [*]
    [*] 13" and 15" models to come shortly.
    [*]
    [*] For the "work crowd", a fusioned BT keyboard-trackpad should work just fine for common office tasks.
    [*]
    [*] The 10% that truly need "trucks" will slowly but eventually be replaced as well, especially within the creative arts. With 802.11ac wireless speeds coupled with hybrid SSD/RAM read/write routines, you have the ability to use tablets as a true real-time input/viewing device.
    [/LIST]
  • Reply 31 of 52
    ecsecs Posts: 307member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    That's true - only if your version of 'productivity' is the only one that exists.

    Ask the American Airlines and other pilots who are using iPads for their manuals rather than paper books.

    Ask the doctors who are using iPads for xray evaluation.

    Ask the people who are using iPads at trade shows to demonstrate their products.

    Ask the service people who keep their manuals on their iPads so they don't have to carry 100 pounds of books.

    The iPad is quite useful for 'productivity'. It is not, however, a full blown laptop computer. The two statements are not contradictory.


     


    "ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources (audio, scanned images, frames from video, or even the output from the xray evaluation you said), and whenever you need to create new material from these sources, that's productivity. It's obvious iOS is too poor at this, no matter if the user is "power" or "average".


     


    Even the simplest "productivity" task, such as making a portfolio from all the work you did last year cannot be done in a reasonable way without a filesystem.


     


    So, yes, tablets can surpass laptops, but as I said only if you'll use them only for entertaining and communication, or if you get one with a filesystem.


     


    Agreed iOS is fine for ebook use, though.

  • Reply 32 of 52
    umrk_labumrk_lab Posts: 550member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ecs View Post


     


    "ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources ......



     


     


    In most jobs, the issue is not to create a digital document, you know ....

  • Reply 33 of 52
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ecs View Post


     


    "ebook use" cannot be considered productivity. Take any task that needs to create digital documents from both new material and existing files from other sources (audio, scanned images, frames from video, or even the output from the xray evaluation you said), and whenever you need to create new material from these sources, that's productivity. It's obvious iOS is too poor at this, no matter if the user is "power" or "average".


     


    Even the simplest "productivity" task, such as making a portfolio from all the work you did last year cannot be done in a reasonable way without a filesystem.


     


    So, yes, tablets can surpass laptops, but as I said only if you'll use them only for entertaining and communication, or if you get one with a filesystem.


     


    Agreed iOS is fine for ebook use, though.





    Sure, let's define something to suit our arguments. Very effective ... in a closed system. By system, I'm referring to mind.

  • Reply 34 of 52
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    ecs wrote: »
    "ebook use" cannot be considered productivity.

    Sorry, I guess I missed the UN designation that you get to define all terms related to computer usage. Sorry. /s

    Of course, in the real world, your definition is ridiculous.
  • Reply 35 of 52
    ecsecs Posts: 307member
    umrk_lab wrote: »

    In most jobs, the issue is not to create a digital document, you know ....

    All of my friends, colleagues, or relatives, are either professors/teachers (so they need to prepare material for their classes, and this needs a filesystem) or are architects (so need to create digital projects with CAD, video, hand drawings, and calculation sheets, which needs a filesystem) or are lawyers (so they need to efficiently manage data of different sources and types for each case, which again needs a filesystem) or are secretaries (so their work involves tons of office documents, together with photos and other digital contents, so, yes, this needs a filesystem too)

    So I don't know what you mean by "most jobs", but all people I know work in an environment that needs a filesystem, and it cannot be done on an iPad, just because of that reason. It could be done on a tablet with a filesystem, though

    However, it's true that all of these jobs can benefit from an iPad, but just for viewing files, showing a presentation, or taking notes. Unfortunately it cannot be used for the main tasks of their jobs. So if they buy iPads, they'll also need to buy computers. The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario
  • Reply 36 of 52


    Originally Posted by ecs View Post


    The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario.[citation needed]


  • Reply 37 of 52
    ecsecs Posts: 307member


    Yes, and a lot of things you do in real life have the nature of a project. Just recall how you did homework when you were at school:


     


    A) The natural human way of doing homework at school: You keep a different notebook (a paper notebook, not a computer) for each subject. When you do an exercise, all its content (text, math, drawings,...) are in the same pages so that you can understand the exercise from its start to its conclusion. And you usually start a new page when you start a different type of exercise, so that your notebook has a comfortable structure.


     


    B) The way you'd do homework with an iPad: The school exercises would be done in this fashion: All text is put in a text app. All math is put in an equation app. All drawings are put in a paint app. And so on.


     


    Now suppose you've to add a little more of text, a couple of new equations, and a new small figure, to an exercise you did two months ago. The student A would take the notebook of that subject, go to the page of the exercise, and there it is, where all this stuff can be added. The student B would go to the text app, and search for the text of that exercise, then edit it to the new changes. Then, the equation app, search for the equations of the exercise, and edit it. Then the paint app, and so on.


     


    In conclusion, the iPad proposes a non-natural way of doing tasks. Filesystems are not an invention, but the computer translation of how humans tend to do tasks in real life even way before than computers existed. Tasks in real life aren't "app-centered", but "task-centered".


     


    When you travel to some place and you want to keep memories of that place, you don't have a box for the pictures of all places you visit, another box for the videos of all trips, another box for paper stuff of all places... that's not the natural way. The natural way is to organize such memories by places, and not by "app". That's how people have always done things for centuries, long before computers existed.


     


    In fewer words:


     


    Can the iPad be used for reading ebooks, taking photos, taking notes, viewing stuff, web surfing, email, and gaming?


    Yes!!!


     


    Can the iPad be used for tasks other than these?


    No.


     


    Can a tablet with a filesystem substitute the need for computers?


    Yes. Absolutely. And it's true as of today (but not with an iPad, for the reasons explained).

  • Reply 38 of 52
    ecs wrote: »
    All of my friends, colleagues, or relatives, are either professors/teachers (so they need to prepare material for their classes, and this needs a filesystem) or are architects (so need to create digital projects with CAD, video, hand drawings, and calculation sheets, which needs a filesystem) or are lawyers (so they need to efficiently manage data of different sources and types for each case, which again needs a filesystem) or are secretaries (so their work involves tons of office documents, together with photos and other digital contents, so, yes, this needs a filesystem too)

    I don't see a file system native on any iOS device ever. There simply is no need for one in the near future.

    I use multiple file systems on connected drives, servers, Macs and cloud services daily. It is here that your file systems and project folders will live. Personal "cloud servers" for consumers will be the next must have device for the home. 802.11ac will be how you connect to them, manipulating the files and folder organization with automatic external cloud syncing on demand for mobility.
    So I don't know what you mean by "most jobs", but all people I know work in an environment that needs a filesystem, and it cannot be done on an iPad, just because of that reason. It could be done on a tablet with a filesystem, though

    Most jobs "today" are still reeling from "Innovation Binge-Drinking", and drunkenly trying to figure out how these new mobile devices and enabling tech fits into 1990's hangover-workflows. Patience. It's coming together far faster than you can order, receive and drink the next "bottle of tech goodness".
    However, it's true that all of these jobs can benefit from an iPad, but just for viewing files, showing a presentation, or taking notes. Unfortunately it cannot be used for the main tasks of their jobs. So if they buy iPads, they'll also need to buy computers. The iPad is completely inefficient whenever you need to create files or manage files in a project scenario

    Not completely true. It may very well be that we're still waiting for certain parts (tech) to be developed and widely integrated (see personal cloud servers, rather than computers). You're also lumping far too many job titles/tasks/descriptions into one group. The average teacher does NOT have the same needs as an engineer or an architect, creatives that will need a "truck" for a while longer than teacher will.

    Even a salesperson, human resources exec., lawyer, etc. have different needs when it comes to enabling "productivity" on any mobile device.

    Take the lawyer....or the teacher: what part of their job can they NOT do on an iOS device?

    I believe both of those jobs are still more than 50% text-based, are they not? Apps for writing, dictating, outlining, planning, reviewing, grading, etc. are all out there. Files are then saved to the cloud in a file system for later refinement, editing, integration within a current workflow using even legacy software (Office)... whatever.

    The trick is in the workflow and matching it realistically to the mobile tech we have now, with a keen eye to what we'll have available in a very short time.

    I was one of the young guys that did this rather successfully 25 years ago with the advent of the Mac. Did either of those fit in seamlessly with the tech and printing industry of the time? No. However within 5 years, we were seriously kicking Typesetting/Litho house butt all over the place! Did they ever catch up? Some did.. but most old-school businesses in the industry died a bitter death after refusing to change that one little thing: their workflow.

    Consider thinking outside the box before you absolutely have to to survive... or before it's too late! 8-)
  • Reply 39 of 52
    ecs wrote: »
    Yes, and a lot of things you do in real life have the nature of a project. Just recall how you did homework when you were at school:

    No. Do not think or teach that way at all if you're over 25!
    In conclusion, the iPad proposes a non-natural way of doing tasks. Filesystems are not an invention, but the computer translation of how humans tend to do tasks in real life even way before than computers existed.

    <<<<skip the nonsense!!!>>>>
    Question to bold statement above: you happen to be one of those folks from 25 years ago that poo-pooed the mouse and GUI by any chance?
    Tasks in real life aren't "app-centered", but "task-centered".

    How right you are... but this does not buttress your argument in the least. It points out why we use computers in the first place, and are more productive because of them and their ability to do a hell of a lot more multitasking than any human can do with only 2 hands and 1 brain at their disposal.

    Ever hear of "mash up"?
    When you travel to some place and you want to keep memories of that place, you don't have a box for the pictures of all places you visit, another box for the videos of all trips, another box for paper stuff of all places... that's not the natural way. The natural way is to organize such memories by places, and not by "app". That's how people have always done things for centuries, long before computers existed.

    Are you claiming you glued your 16mm home movies or VHS cassette into your scrapbook or family photo album? I bet you didn't... and I bet the box with any of the films is probably nowhere near your coffee table. But your iPad is. And if you took the time (currently) on your Mac through iPhoto, you just might have everything: photo, film, snapshots of menus, hotels, whatever... all neat in an album called "Vacation to Disney 2011".
    In fewer words:

    Can the iPad be used for reading ebooks, taking photos, taking notes, viewing stuff, web surfing, email, and gaming?
    Yes!!!

    Can the iPad be used for tasks other than these?
    No.


    Can a tablet with a filesystem substitute the need for computers?
    Yes. Absolutely. And it's true as of today (but not with an iPad, for the reasons explained).

    Your reasons do not hold water, and your boat is sinking. Making blanket statements like the clueless bold one above is a major leak! You really ready to sink with that ship? :no:

    Check this out and see how just this one app uses Metadata, search, syncing on and offsite... etc. etc. Take that down to the far less needy office worker and tell me again why you can't be productive with an iPad.
    YouTube presentation by Michael Cioni presents Todailies
  • Reply 40 of 52
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 23,321member


    I just received Canalys report on the future of PC's and notebooks. Looks fairly in-line with the basic projections already posted in the AI article:


     


     


    Canalys’ latest forecasts paint a bleak picture of the state of the industry for the majority of PC hardware vendors. Combined shipments of desktops, netbooks and notebooks showed a year-on-year decline of around 10% in the fourth quarter of 2012, as consumers favored Android and iOS pads over Wintel-based PCs. Microsoft and Intel will suffer further, with the Wintel PC market share expected to decline from 72% in 2012 to 65% in 2013. This will represent a 5% decline in unit shipments, largely due to the poor outlook for notebook sales. ‘Pads and, increasingly, smart phones can perform many of the day-to-day computing tasks that most people require,’ said Pin-Chen Tang, Canalys Research Analyst. ‘Wintel PCs are becoming less likely as an individual’s first choice of computing device for everyday tasks, such as sending e-mail or web browsing.’


    ‘The launch of Windows 8 did not reinvigorate the market in 2012, and is expected to have a negative effect as we move into 2013. Windows 8 is so different to previous versions that most consumers will be put off by the thought of having to learn a new OS,’ highlighted Canalys Research Analyst Tom Evans. ‘An additional barrier is the potential increase in cost that Windows 8 brings, as it is perceived that a PC with a touch-screen is needed to get the best user experience. In the current economic climate, this will be enough to make people delay purchases as they wait for prices to fall.’


    ‘The combination of Windows 8 and Ultrabooks has been the catalyst for notebook form-factor innovation, but what was becoming a routine purchase is now more complex,’ said Canalys Analyst Tim Coulling. ‘Now buyers must decide between an Ultrabook and a standard notebook, a touch-screen and a non-touch-screen, as well as an increasing array of form-factors, such as clamshell, convertible and hybrid. This added complexity will make purchases more considered and lengthen the sales process.’


    Canalys predicts that from 2014 to 2016 the PC industry will see a shift in form-factor mix, as consumers in both mature and high-growth markets become interested in new PC designs based on touch-screens. Canalys expects the pad market will grow by 37% on average each year between 2012 and 2016, with volumes reaching 389 million units, accounting for 59% of total PC shipments. This growth will be driven by the iPad and iPad mini, low-cost, content-subsidized Android products, and Windows-based hybrid PCs (eg, Microsoft’s Surface Pro). The hybrid form-factor adds value to pads, enabling a greater level of productivity. This, combined with the expected improvements in Android and iOS, will further encourage the shift from notebooks to pads.


    ‘It is clear that Microsoft is now pushing touch as the primary input method for Windows, but keyboard and mouse are still needed for legacy applications,’ added Coulling. ‘Following the launch of the iPhone, the shift from keypad/keyboard to touch input on smart phones was rapid. The popularity of pads and the inevitable decline in touch-panel prices will cause the same trend to emerge in the PC market.’

Sign In or Register to comment.