…419 million phones sold in 1Q2012. That's almost 1.7 billion for the year… There are also about 6 billion phones in use according to one site at a ratio 86 out of 100 people on the planet.
No! They are buying music and video capable phones in the hundreds of millions. And the vast majority are not iPhones.
Because, I believe, the "stupidphone" market is not so stupid.... and it is vastly greater than the high end ($300+) smartphone market.
Perhaps you weren't paying attention, but in the last three markets that Apple entered they started at the top and worked their way down. It's better that way!
Yes. Moderate compared to iPhone sales, but already higher than iPod sales.
Over 1.5 billion people will buy a cell phone this year. It won't be an iPhone. How much will Apple and their developers make from those sales?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
Nope.
High volume low cost high profit are all vague.
A $199 iPhone Nano that makes more profit than the iPod Touch is what in your scale? Given that the 6th gen iPod Nano BOM was in the $43 range. Lets double it to $80 and that still less than the estimated BOM for the 4th gen iPod Touch. Given the much smaller touch screen, the vastly cheaper CPU, 3G vs LTE radio and so forth around an $80 isn't an unreasonable expectation.
Is the iPod Touch low profit in your mind?
Justification? Saturation of the US Smartphone market (80%) expected in 2014.
You might argue that entry into the feature phone market to be counter intuitive given this scenario and I would agree. Counter intuitive doesn't mean wrong though. It just means zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Thus far Apple and Android hasn't REALLY gone head to head. They've both been snarfing up Nokia, RIM and feature phones users. The low hanging fruit is running out and that IS different from six years ago.
In any case, there are multiple official statements from Apple that the pre-paid market is of great interest to Apple. One not very well addressed by year old iPhone models. There's as much justification for a high end feature phone as some new TV related product.
Plausible but far from certain. Apple has many irons in the fire and only so much focus available.
I really like the idea of an iPhone Nano, with a focus on media and music consumption, and a $200-ish price tag.
But I think a slightly larger iPhone Mini with 3 - 3.5 inch running full complete apps is more likely even if such a device would cost $350+.
Gartner as 419 million phones solid in 1Q2012. That's almost 1.7 billion for the year all thing being equal. Even with a decline as people move from less disposable phones 1.5 billion is quite reasonable.
There are also about 6 billion phones in use according to one site at a ratio 86 out of 100 people on the planet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Truly insane numbers.
It's probably because a lot of American adults have multiple cell phones. Each "disposable" phone drug dealers and cheating husbands/wives buy counts in that number. And of course all the Blackberries companies buy there employees, though the employees all have iPhones and Androids for personal use.
Note: No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
You're using an iSuppli BOM to make a case for imaginary product's profitability. :sigh: I give up.
LOL...classic.
YOU HAVEN'T DONE AN ANALYSIS SO YOU ARE WRONG!
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
The iPhone Nano is conjectured to be a slightly larger 8GB iPod Nano with a 3G radio for $199. I did a rough back of the envelope top down calculation and got $80. We can delve into the details for actual component costs for a bottom up estimate.
We know the price for the Flash, Application Processor, etc. We can guestimate based on the iPhone 4 component pricing for the remainder. The fact that all of these BOM breakdowns are 2+ years old means that the component prices will be conservative. If the estimated BOM is in the same range as the BOM for iPod Touch 4G then we assert with a reasonable confidence that the iPhone Nano will be about as profitable as the iPod Touch.
6th Gen iPod Nano (rounding up to nearest dollar)
Memory (Flash and SDRAM) - $15
Touch screen - $12
Application Processor - $5
User Interface - $4
Box, Other Mechanics, Electro-Mechanical Power Management - $10
Battery - $1
Manufacturing - $2
Total $47.
iPhone 4
WiFi/BT - $8
3G Radio - $25
Camera 5MP $10
Camera VGA $1
Let us upgrade the screen and battery to 1/2 that of the iPod Touch;
Sure, and they've done it with the iPhone, too. They have 3 generations ranging from $450 to $850.
Yep. It's not quite the same strategy as expanding your market by creating the iPod Mini followed by the Nano and the Shuffle. Or by expanding your tablet market by creating the iPad mini... but it seems to be working. Apple have expanded their market from $850 to $450.
Do you think Apple cares more about the number of people buying phones and how many "activations" Android makes or how much profit they make from the handset market? With a 75% take and no product to compete with the barrel scraping anything I'm going with the latter.
Yes 75% is great. It's fantastic! But it's an exaggerated number because Nokia and LG etc are selling hundreds of millions of phones each year, but they seem to have forgotten to make any profit whatsoever. If there is one thing that Apple is good at it's finding the profitable way to do things.
What do you think the 7 inch tablet market was like before Apple joined the party?
7 inch market growing nicely.
Really low prices. $ 200 ish.
Somewhere between low and zero profits.
Nothing in it for Apple.
After iPad Mini.
7 (ok and 8) inch market growing rapidly.
Higher ASPs
Substantial profits...
... most of them going to Apple.
I know it's not the same as the phone market exactly, but there are similarities.
Quote:
Again, it's possible but I think the most likely avenue is to strengthen their iOS ecosystem not chip away at it. I also think getting in with China Mobile with a proper iPhone is more profitable and therefore more important than the low-cost options presented in this thread.
Yes of course a deal with China Mobile would be huge for the iPhone. There are still plenty of other carriers that have yet to sign up with Apple... and those deals will provide organic growth. However the future growth in 'smartphones' is all going to come from below. iPhone growth YOY in 2011 was over 90%. In 2012 probably 50%. There is a natural ceiling to Apple's current iPhone strategy.
Quote:
What you want something substantially less expensive and yet a new design from the ground up which implies additional costs as well no ecosystem lock-in to keep it tied to the App Store.
No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
No. I don't "want something" from Apple.
No. "I am not sure of it".
I am putting forward one possible solution that covers both the 'cheap iPhone' rumours and the title of this thread. I am a little surprised by the responses that basically boil down to "Apple ain't interested in those 150,000,000,000 potential customers. Particularly from people who didn't even realise they were there. (That's for you Tallest!)
So Sol, with respect, I suggest you dial down your mistaken reading between the lines.
The iPhone 4 for $350? Eh...I think that's still a bit high for the Chinese and Indian markets but it's a viable pre-pay price for the US and the EU.
I guess if you don't care about the emerging markets at all that would work.
Perhaps a 3GS with A5 for $299 non-retina would work in those markets. The A4 is a little pokey for iOS 6.
Edit: I had added $100 to everything for some reason. I wonder if the virgin-mobile prices are subsidized a little even though they are no-contract.
I think most people, even those in emerging markets, are willing to pay a premium for Apple devices, hence the success of the iPad Mini and even the iPhone.
That being said I don't think Apple has to compete with Android/etc head on with price. If Apple can make a relatively complete phone with most of the bells and whistles people are used to for even $350, I think we'd see their sales grow exponentially in some markets.
But a unique feature phone would be an interesting angle for them as well. Strangely though, I feel a feature phone would do better for them here in the US than in emerging markets.
I think most people in emerging markets would rather have at least limited smart phone capabilities if their buying a touch screen Apple product.
I would assume people in India and China would rather surf the web and read the news rather than listen to music all day? I could be wrong though.
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
The iPhone Nano is conjectured to be a slightly larger 8GB iPod Nano with a 3G radio for $199. I did a rough back of the envelope top down calculation and got $80. We can delve into the details for actual component costs for a bottom up estimate.
We know the price for the Flash, Application Processor, etc. We can guestimate based on the iPhone 4 component pricing for the remainder. The fact that all of these BOM breakdowns are 2+ years old means that the component prices will be conservative. If the estimated BOM is in the same range as the BOM for iPod Touch 4G then we assert with a reasonable confidence that the iPhone Nano will be about as profitable as the iPod Touch.
6th Gen iPod Nano (rounding up to nearest dollar)
Memory (Flash and SDRAM) - $15
Touch screen - $12
Application Processor - $5
User Interface - $4
Box, Other Mechanics, Electro-Mechanical Power Management - $10
Battery - $1
Manufacturing - $2
Total $47.
iPhone 4
WiFi/BT - $8
3G Radio - $25
Camera 5MP $10
Camera VGA $1
Let us upgrade the screen and battery to 1/2 that of the iPod Touch;
The Nokia Asha 311 retails $115-$120 this is a good sanity check. 3" LCD Gorilla Glass, quad band GSM, WiFi, BT, 1Ghz CPU, 1110 mAh battery.
So top down estimate, bottom up estimate and sanity check all seems to indicate a lower BOM cost than the iPod Touch 4G.
Given the above I think it's now on you to show why the iPhone Nano wont be more profitable than the iPod Touch in the current line up.
The current iPhone's margins are way higher than the iPod Touches, so I would assume the iPhone Nano's would be more in line with the iPhone's margins. But that's a minor point when the cost of materials you're talking is so low at $80.
Sure, and they've done it with the iPhone, too. They have 3 generations ranging from $450 to $850.
Yep. It's not quite the same strategy as expanding your market by creating the iPod Mini followed by the Nano and the Shuffle. Or by expanding your tablet market by creating the iPad mini... but it seems to be working. Apple have expanded their market from $850 to $450.
Do you think Apple cares more about the number of people buying phones and how many "activations" Android makes or how much profit they make from the handset market? With a 75% take and no product to compete with the barrel scraping anything I'm going with the latter.
Yes 75% is great. It's fantastic! But it's an exaggerated number because Nokia and LG etc are selling hundreds of millions of phones each year, but they seem to have forgotten to make any profit whatsoever. If there is one thing that Apple is good at it's finding the profitable way to do things.
What do you think the 7 inch tablet market was like before Apple joined the party?
7 inch market growing nicely.
Really low prices. $ 200 ish.
Somewhere between low and zero profits.
Nothing in it for Apple.
After iPad Mini.
7 (ok and 8) inch market growing rapidly.
Higher ASPs
Substantial profits...
... most of them going to Apple.
I know it's not the same as the phone market exactly, but there are similarities.
Quote:
Again, it's possible but I think the most likely avenue is to strengthen their iOS ecosystem not chip away at it. I also think getting in with China Mobile with a proper iPhone is more profitable and therefore more important than the low-cost options presented in this thread.
Yes of course a deal with China Mobile would be huge for the iPhone. There are still plenty of other carriers that have yet to sign up with Apple... and those deals will provide organic growth. However the future growth in 'smartphones' is all going to come from below. iPhone growth YOY in 2011 was over 90%. In 2012 probably 50%. There is a natural ceiling to Apple's current iPhone strategy.
Quote:
What you want something substantially less expensive and yet a new design from the ground up which implies additional costs as well no ecosystem lock-in to keep it tied to the App Store.
No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
No. I don't "want something" from Apple.
No. "I am not sure of it".
I am putting forward one possible solution that covers both the 'cheap iPhone' rumours and the title of this thread. I am a little surprised by the responses that basically boil down to "Apple ain't interested in those 150,000,000,000 potential customers. Particularly from people who didn't even realise they were there. (That's for you Tallest!)
So Sol, with respect, I suggest you dial down your mistaken reading between the lines.
A smaller cheaper iPhone is going to happen. Tim Cook is going to make sure of it. A few years ago he said something about making sure Apple had a solution for emerging markets, and with the China Mobile deal happening its all about to unfold.
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
...and thanks for your subsequent data/info. That's what I'm talking about. Truth is that some of us are too lazy or don't have the time (me as a perfect example) to back up every single opinion that we put up on this board.
But if some of us throw out a contrasting view that is thought of as being anti-apple culture, the loyalists here often respond with general feelings of "give us data and facts to back it up or shut up and go home". Maybe some are too used to having to respond to trolls (either direct or in disguise)...and for that, I appreciate calling the trolls out directly, capriciously even.
But nowadays, there are many that are more Apple neutral, while still fans of Apple, if that makes any sense.
In conclusion, I love the recent posts, it allows for good meaningful discussion on both sides. Time will tell who was right and who was wrong. For now, take pause to listen to the contrasting views... appreciate the good conversation for what it is. :-)
iOS is more than the iPhone, it's iPhone, iPod touch, iPad and in the future MacBook and iMac. If you can develop for 800 million users no one complains about 10 percent.
J.
Yes, but you can count out those ipod touches and iphones that cant go past 4.2. That drops quite many out of the equation....
Yes, but you can count out those ipod touches and iphones that cant go past 4.2. That drops quite many out of the equation....
1) Why drop them? If a developer has an app that will easily work on that older OS and HW then so be it.
2) Apple has stated many times that sales of the latest device running the latest OS have outsold all previous devices ever sold. That means that going back to a device that can only run a 3 generation old OS means you're going back to 2008. We're talking about no later than the iPhone 3G. How many 1st and 2nd generation iPhones and iPod Touches are still in use? Whatever the number it pales in comparison to all the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th generation iPhones, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation iPod Touches, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation iPads, and 1st generation iPad minis.
A smaller cheaper iPhone is going to happen. Tim Cook is going to make sure of it. A few years ago he said something about making sure Apple had a solution for emerging markets, and with the China Mobile deal happening its all about to unfold.
Im atleast with you. The Iphones out there now (atleast in europe) the prices are way too high for young people. I am shure that apple doesnt want to alieanate the youngsters to go buy Samesung products just because they dont have money to buy iphone 5 (its like 800 Euros here in Europe).
I myself as a parent of two would not buy iphone 4:s for my youngsters. They are just too expensive compared to the alternatives. And the alternatives are just OK, they do what they are supposed to. Its a shame they dont sell the Iphone 3GS anymore as i think that would have been a good choice for youngsters.
Its ashame that kids will instead go over to become samesung fans. They get something that isnt top notch (150-250 Euros phones) but it does the tasks that they need and they arent that fuggly anymore. They might never become apple customers, ever. Apple has had its rise. They wont know what hit them if they stay on this road they turned to. Markets change people change. We havent seen any change in IOS user interface. I have 2 ipads and they just throw away the awesome potential that this device has and after a few years it really feels like a big iphone that you just use to browse the internet or play games or watch movies. You cant really do much else with it because of the UI. They have started to stagnate in the IOS department and i would like to have some fu%%ing useability improvments thanks.... With a lot of apps it just sucks to try to navigate this thing. Why cant they bring the open apps navigation (cmd-tab) from os X to touch screen on the ipad. The 4-5 finger apps switching in ios is nice but pointless if you have no idea which way your supposed to navigate.
Apple just lacks the wish to change it seems. Apple is getting fatter and fatter and becoming comfortable with itself.
I live in app no-mans-land now. Its a hostage situation att the app store. We cant upgrade nor can we downgrade applications.
We have two older IOS devices in my household. We have a 2nd gen ipod touch and and a Iphone 3G which are both very well functioning units (kids use them). I cant upgrade our newer iphones without os loosing the ability to use apps on the older devices. I Have stopped upgrading apps almost fully. Some apps dont work on the older devices because I updated on the newer devices. Apple needs to get its head out of its ass on this App versioning problem.
I just cant understand why apple cant sell the older versions of apps that worked with those older IOS versions??? Why is this away from someone else except that the app i purchased doesnt work on my device I bought it on?!?! But wouldnt the app sellers equally enjoying the sales of an app that works on 4.2.1 or 3.1.3? No? There arent many business that turn away customers like Apple and the IOS developers. Want to buy an app for that iphone 3G? No we dont sell you. We hade a version of this app a year ago and it ran on your 4.2.1 and it even worked great, but now we dont want to sell you anything.
Some developers say that they only support the two newest versions?!? What. They hade an app that worked well on the older IOSes but now they dont want to sell it anymore to those that cant upgrade?!? What retards!! Apple products are known for their value even after they are "obsolete" but apple is just killing old devices value because you cant buy a sinle piece of software for it even if it could run it without a problem. This is going to change quite rapidly if this problem persists (atleast for IOS devices)....
This concludes the hostage situation at the Apple app store. Apple, please we are your customers, do something, we dont want to stay hostages here, we want to go home....
1) Why drop them? If a developer has an app that will easily work on that older OS and HW then so be it.
2) Apple has stated many times that sales of the latest device running the latest OS have outsold all previous devices ever sold. That means that going back to a device that can only run a 3 generation old OS means you're going back to 2008. We're talking about no later than the iPhone 3G. How many 1st and 2nd generation iPhones and iPod Touches are still in use? Whatever the number it pales in comparison to all the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th generation iPhones, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation iPod Touches, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation iPads, and 1st generation iPad minis.
1) they did it already. Just look at any forum about apps not working after upgrading them on devices on 4.2.1... If you dont have a backup for example you can only download the newest version of the app that does not function on devices below 4.3. I dont know who to blame on this. It apears that the blame is on both. Apple for not making it optional to install older versions on devices that dont support newer ones after they use the new APIs. OR developers that try to cut support for old versions so they dont get lots of work. Still why would they decide not to sell good functioning software even if bug support ended for it and the quality is as good as it is in general in the app store (I think its always been good on most apps i bought).
2) why is this out of somebody elses bag to be able to install that older version of the app that worked well with 4.2.1. If a device owner that cant upgrade past 4.2.1 wants to buy a new app, ANY app he now CAN NOT! Why because there isnt any apps new versions that work with devices that are below 4.3!!!
Comments
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
…419 million phones sold in 1Q2012. That's almost 1.7 billion for the year… There are also about 6 billion phones in use according to one site at a ratio 86 out of 100 people on the planet.
Truly insane numbers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot
No! They are buying music and video capable phones in the hundreds of millions. And the vast majority are not iPhones.
Because, I believe, the "stupidphone" market is not so stupid.... and it is vastly greater than the high end ($300+) smartphone market.
Perhaps you weren't paying attention, but in the last three markets that Apple entered they started at the top and worked their way down. It's better that way!
Yes. Moderate compared to iPhone sales, but already higher than iPod sales.
Over 1.5 billion people will buy a cell phone this year. It won't be an iPhone. How much will Apple and their developers make from those sales?
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
Nope.
High volume low cost high profit are all vague.
A $199 iPhone Nano that makes more profit than the iPod Touch is what in your scale? Given that the 6th gen iPod Nano BOM was in the $43 range. Lets double it to $80 and that still less than the estimated BOM for the 4th gen iPod Touch. Given the much smaller touch screen, the vastly cheaper CPU, 3G vs LTE radio and so forth around an $80 isn't an unreasonable expectation.
Is the iPod Touch low profit in your mind?
Justification? Saturation of the US Smartphone market (80%) expected in 2014.
http://www.asymco.com/2013/01/04/when-will-smartphones-reach-saturation/
You might argue that entry into the feature phone market to be counter intuitive given this scenario and I would agree. Counter intuitive doesn't mean wrong though. It just means zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Thus far Apple and Android hasn't REALLY gone head to head. They've both been snarfing up Nokia, RIM and feature phones users. The low hanging fruit is running out and that IS different from six years ago.
In any case, there are multiple official statements from Apple that the pre-paid market is of great interest to Apple. One not very well addressed by year old iPhone models. There's as much justification for a high end feature phone as some new TV related product.
Plausible but far from certain. Apple has many irons in the fire and only so much focus available.
I really like the idea of an iPhone Nano, with a focus on media and music consumption, and a $200-ish price tag.
But I think a slightly larger iPhone Mini with 3 - 3.5 inch running full complete apps is more likely even if such a device would cost $350+.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Gartner as 419 million phones solid in 1Q2012. That's almost 1.7 billion for the year all thing being equal. Even with a decline as people move from less disposable phones 1.5 billion is quite reasonable.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=2017015
There are also about 6 billion phones in use according to one site at a ratio 86 out of 100 people on the planet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
Truly insane numbers.
It's probably because a lot of American adults have multiple cell phones. Each "disposable" phone drug dealers and cheating husbands/wives buy counts in that number. And of course all the Blackberries companies buy there employees, though the employees all have iPhones and Androids for personal use.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Note: No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
You're using an iSuppli BOM to make a case for imaginary product's profitability. :sigh: I give up.
LOL...classic.
YOU HAVEN'T DONE AN ANALYSIS SO YOU ARE WRONG!
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
The iPhone Nano is conjectured to be a slightly larger 8GB iPod Nano with a 3G radio for $199. I did a rough back of the envelope top down calculation and got $80. We can delve into the details for actual component costs for a bottom up estimate.
We know the price for the Flash, Application Processor, etc. We can guestimate based on the iPhone 4 component pricing for the remainder. The fact that all of these BOM breakdowns are 2+ years old means that the component prices will be conservative. If the estimated BOM is in the same range as the BOM for iPod Touch 4G then we assert with a reasonable confidence that the iPhone Nano will be about as profitable as the iPod Touch.
6th Gen iPod Nano (rounding up to nearest dollar)
Memory (Flash and SDRAM) - $15
Touch screen - $12
Application Processor - $5
User Interface - $4
Box, Other Mechanics, Electro-Mechanical Power Management - $10
Battery - $1
Manufacturing - $2
Total $47.
iPhone 4
WiFi/BT - $8
3G Radio - $25
Camera 5MP $10
Camera VGA $1
Let us upgrade the screen and battery to 1/2 that of the iPod Touch;
Battery - $3
Touchscreen + Display - $20
$47 - $13 (touch screen + battery) = $34 + $67 = $101
Estimated iPod Touch 4G BOM was $130-$150.
The Nokia Asha 311 retails $115-$120 this is a good sanity check. 3" LCD Gorilla Glass, quad band GSM, WiFi, BT, 1Ghz CPU, 1110 mAh battery.
So top down estimate, bottom up estimate and sanity check all seems to indicate a lower BOM cost than the iPod Touch 4G.
Given the above I think it's now on you to show why the iPhone Nano wont be more profitable than the iPod Touch in the current line up.
Sure, and they've done it with the iPhone, too. They have 3 generations ranging from $450 to $850.
Yep. It's not quite the same strategy as expanding your market by creating the iPod Mini followed by the Nano and the Shuffle. Or by expanding your tablet market by creating the iPad mini... but it seems to be working. Apple have expanded their market from $850 to $450.
Hardly any market left then! ;-)
Yes 75% is great. It's fantastic! But it's an exaggerated number because Nokia and LG etc are selling hundreds of millions of phones each year, but they seem to have forgotten to make any profit whatsoever. If there is one thing that Apple is good at it's finding the profitable way to do things.
What do you think the 7 inch tablet market was like before Apple joined the party?
7 inch market growing nicely.
Really low prices. $ 200 ish.
Somewhere between low and zero profits.
Nothing in it for Apple.
After iPad Mini.
7 (ok and 8) inch market growing rapidly.
Higher ASPs
Substantial profits...
... most of them going to Apple.
I know it's not the same as the phone market exactly, but there are similarities.
Yes of course a deal with China Mobile would be huge for the iPhone. There are still plenty of other carriers that have yet to sign up with Apple... and those deals will provide organic growth. However the future growth in 'smartphones' is all going to come from below. iPhone growth YOY in 2011 was over 90%. In 2012 probably 50%. There is a natural ceiling to Apple's current iPhone strategy.
What you want something substantially less expensive and yet a new design from the ground up which implies additional costs as well no ecosystem lock-in to keep it tied to the App Store.
No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
No. I don't "want something" from Apple.
No. "I am not sure of it".
I am putting forward one possible solution that covers both the 'cheap iPhone' rumours and the title of this thread. I am a little surprised by the responses that basically boil down to "Apple ain't interested in those 150,000,000,000 potential customers. Particularly from people who didn't even realise they were there. (That's for you Tallest!)
So Sol, with respect, I suggest you dial down your mistaken reading between the lines.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
But I think a slightly larger iPhone Mini with 3 - 3.5 inch running full complete apps is more likely even if such a device would cost $350+.
Mmm...the iPhone 4S is $450.
The iPhone 4 for $350? Eh...I think that's still a bit high for the Chinese and Indian markets but it's a viable pre-pay price for the US and the EU.
I guess if you don't care about the emerging markets at all that would work.
Perhaps a 3GS with A5 for $299 non-retina would work in those markets. The A4 is a little pokey for iOS 6.
Edit: I had added $100 to everything for some reason. I wonder if the virgin-mobile prices are subsidized a little even though they are no-contract.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
Mmm...the iPhone 4S is $450.
The iPhone 4 for $350? Eh...I think that's still a bit high for the Chinese and Indian markets but it's a viable pre-pay price for the US and the EU.
I guess if you don't care about the emerging markets at all that would work.
Perhaps a 3GS with A5 for $299 non-retina would work in those markets. The A4 is a little pokey for iOS 6.
Edit: I had added $100 to everything for some reason. I wonder if the virgin-mobile prices are subsidized a little even though they are no-contract.
I think most people, even those in emerging markets, are willing to pay a premium for Apple devices, hence the success of the iPad Mini and even the iPhone.
That being said I don't think Apple has to compete with Android/etc head on with price. If Apple can make a relatively complete phone with most of the bells and whistles people are used to for even $350, I think we'd see their sales grow exponentially in some markets.
But a unique feature phone would be an interesting angle for them as well. Strangely though, I feel a feature phone would do better for them here in the US than in emerging markets.
I think most people in emerging markets would rather have at least limited smart phone capabilities if their buying a touch screen Apple product.
I would assume people in India and China would rather surf the web and read the news rather than listen to music all day? I could be wrong though.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nht
LOL...classic.
YOU HAVEN'T DONE AN ANALYSIS SO YOU ARE WRONG!
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
The iPhone Nano is conjectured to be a slightly larger 8GB iPod Nano with a 3G radio for $199. I did a rough back of the envelope top down calculation and got $80. We can delve into the details for actual component costs for a bottom up estimate.
We know the price for the Flash, Application Processor, etc. We can guestimate based on the iPhone 4 component pricing for the remainder. The fact that all of these BOM breakdowns are 2+ years old means that the component prices will be conservative. If the estimated BOM is in the same range as the BOM for iPod Touch 4G then we assert with a reasonable confidence that the iPhone Nano will be about as profitable as the iPod Touch.
6th Gen iPod Nano (rounding up to nearest dollar)
Memory (Flash and SDRAM) - $15
Touch screen - $12
Application Processor - $5
User Interface - $4
Box, Other Mechanics, Electro-Mechanical Power Management - $10
Battery - $1
Manufacturing - $2
Total $47.
iPhone 4
WiFi/BT - $8
3G Radio - $25
Camera 5MP $10
Camera VGA $1
Let us upgrade the screen and battery to 1/2 that of the iPod Touch;
Battery - $3
Touchscreen + Display - $20
$47 - $13 (touch screen + battery) = $34 + $67 = $101
Estimated iPod Touch 4G BOM was $130-$150.
The Nokia Asha 311 retails $115-$120 this is a good sanity check. 3" LCD Gorilla Glass, quad band GSM, WiFi, BT, 1Ghz CPU, 1110 mAh battery.
So top down estimate, bottom up estimate and sanity check all seems to indicate a lower BOM cost than the iPod Touch 4G.
Given the above I think it's now on you to show why the iPhone Nano wont be more profitable than the iPod Touch in the current line up.
The current iPhone's margins are way higher than the iPod Touches, so I would assume the iPhone Nano's would be more in line with the iPhone's margins. But that's a minor point when the cost of materials you're talking is so low at $80.
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Originally Posted by piot
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Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Sure, and they've done it with the iPhone, too. They have 3 generations ranging from $450 to $850.
Yep. It's not quite the same strategy as expanding your market by creating the iPod Mini followed by the Nano and the Shuffle. Or by expanding your tablet market by creating the iPad mini... but it seems to be working. Apple have expanded their market from $850 to $450.
Hardly any market left then! ;-)
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Do you think Apple cares more about the number of people buying phones and how many "activations" Android makes or how much profit they make from the handset market? With a 75% take and no product to compete with the barrel scraping anything I'm going with the latter.
Yes 75% is great. It's fantastic! But it's an exaggerated number because Nokia and LG etc are selling hundreds of millions of phones each year, but they seem to have forgotten to make any profit whatsoever. If there is one thing that Apple is good at it's finding the profitable way to do things.
What do you think the 7 inch tablet market was like before Apple joined the party?
7 inch market growing nicely.
Really low prices. $ 200 ish.
Somewhere between low and zero profits.
Nothing in it for Apple.
After iPad Mini.
7 (ok and 8) inch market growing rapidly.
Higher ASPs
Substantial profits...
... most of them going to Apple.
I know it's not the same as the phone market exactly, but there are similarities.
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Again, it's possible but I think the most likely avenue is to strengthen their iOS ecosystem not chip away at it. I also think getting in with China Mobile with a proper iPhone is more profitable and therefore more important than the low-cost options presented in this thread.
Yes of course a deal with China Mobile would be huge for the iPhone. There are still plenty of other carriers that have yet to sign up with Apple... and those deals will provide organic growth. However the future growth in 'smartphones' is all going to come from below. iPhone growth YOY in 2011 was over 90%. In 2012 probably 50%. There is a natural ceiling to Apple's current iPhone strategy.
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What you want something substantially less expensive and yet a new design from the ground up which implies additional costs as well no ecosystem lock-in to keep it tied to the App Store.
No one has done a cost analysis of this iPhone nano and yet you're all so sure of it.
No. I don't "want something" from Apple.
No. "I am not sure of it".
I am putting forward one possible solution that covers both the 'cheap iPhone' rumours and the title of this thread. I am a little surprised by the responses that basically boil down to "Apple ain't interested in those 150,000,000,000 potential customers. Particularly from people who didn't even realise they were there. (That's for you Tallest!)
So Sol, with respect, I suggest you dial down your mistaken reading between the lines.
A smaller cheaper iPhone is going to happen. Tim Cook is going to make sure of it. A few years ago he said something about making sure Apple had a solution for emerging markets, and with the China Mobile deal happening its all about to unfold.
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Originally Posted by nht
LOL...classic.
YOU HAVEN'T DONE AN ANALYSIS SO YOU ARE WRONG!
YOU CAN'T DO AN ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT DOESN'T EXIST SO YOU ARE WRONG!
And you wonder why I don't believe you are arguing in good faith.
Yes, I'm using iSuppli BOM because it give you a rough estimate of component costs relative to other devices. What else can you use for a cost analysis?
...and thanks for your subsequent data/info. That's what I'm talking about. Truth is that some of us are too lazy or don't have the time (me as a perfect example) to back up every single opinion that we put up on this board.
But if some of us throw out a contrasting view that is thought of as being anti-apple culture, the loyalists here often respond with general feelings of "give us data and facts to back it up or shut up and go home". Maybe some are too used to having to respond to trolls (either direct or in disguise)...and for that, I appreciate calling the trolls out directly, capriciously even.
But nowadays, there are many that are more Apple neutral, while still fans of Apple, if that makes any sense.
In conclusion, I love the recent posts, it allows for good meaningful discussion on both sides. Time will tell who was right and who was wrong. For now, take pause to listen to the contrasting views... appreciate the good conversation for what it is. :-)
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Originally Posted by jnjnjn
iOS is more than the iPhone, it's iPhone, iPod touch, iPad and in the future MacBook and iMac. If you can develop for 800 million users no one complains about 10 percent.
J.
Yes, but you can count out those ipod touches and iphones that cant go past 4.2. That drops quite many out of the equation....
1) Why drop them? If a developer has an app that will easily work on that older OS and HW then so be it.
2) Apple has stated many times that sales of the latest device running the latest OS have outsold all previous devices ever sold. That means that going back to a device that can only run a 3 generation old OS means you're going back to 2008. We're talking about no later than the iPhone 3G. How many 1st and 2nd generation iPhones and iPod Touches are still in use? Whatever the number it pales in comparison to all the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th generation iPhones, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation iPod Touches, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation iPads, and 1st generation iPad minis.
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Originally Posted by blackbook
A smaller cheaper iPhone is going to happen. Tim Cook is going to make sure of it. A few years ago he said something about making sure Apple had a solution for emerging markets, and with the China Mobile deal happening its all about to unfold.
Im atleast with you. The Iphones out there now (atleast in europe) the prices are way too high for young people. I am shure that apple doesnt want to alieanate the youngsters to go buy Samesung products just because they dont have money to buy iphone 5 (its like 800 Euros here in Europe).
I myself as a parent of two would not buy iphone 4:s for my youngsters. They are just too expensive compared to the alternatives. And the alternatives are just OK, they do what they are supposed to. Its a shame they dont sell the Iphone 3GS anymore as i think that would have been a good choice for youngsters.
Its ashame that kids will instead go over to become samesung fans. They get something that isnt top notch (150-250 Euros phones) but it does the tasks that they need and they arent that fuggly anymore. They might never become apple customers, ever. Apple has had its rise. They wont know what hit them if they stay on this road they turned to. Markets change people change. We havent seen any change in IOS user interface. I have 2 ipads and they just throw away the awesome potential that this device has and after a few years it really feels like a big iphone that you just use to browse the internet or play games or watch movies. You cant really do much else with it because of the UI. They have started to stagnate in the IOS department and i would like to have some fu%%ing useability improvments thanks.... With a lot of apps it just sucks to try to navigate this thing. Why cant they bring the open apps navigation (cmd-tab) from os X to touch screen on the ipad. The 4-5 finger apps switching in ios is nice but pointless if you have no idea which way your supposed to navigate.
Apple just lacks the wish to change it seems. Apple is getting fatter and fatter and becoming comfortable with itself.
I live in app no-mans-land now. Its a hostage situation att the app store. We cant upgrade nor can we downgrade applications.
We have two older IOS devices in my household. We have a 2nd gen ipod touch and and a Iphone 3G which are both very well functioning units (kids use them). I cant upgrade our newer iphones without os loosing the ability to use apps on the older devices. I Have stopped upgrading apps almost fully. Some apps dont work on the older devices because I updated on the newer devices. Apple needs to get its head out of its ass on this App versioning problem.
I just cant understand why apple cant sell the older versions of apps that worked with those older IOS versions??? Why is this away from someone else except that the app i purchased doesnt work on my device I bought it on?!?! But wouldnt the app sellers equally enjoying the sales of an app that works on 4.2.1 or 3.1.3? No? There arent many business that turn away customers like Apple and the IOS developers. Want to buy an app for that iphone 3G? No we dont sell you. We hade a version of this app a year ago and it ran on your 4.2.1 and it even worked great, but now we dont want to sell you anything.
Some developers say that they only support the two newest versions?!? What. They hade an app that worked well on the older IOSes but now they dont want to sell it anymore to those that cant upgrade?!? What retards!! Apple products are known for their value even after they are "obsolete" but apple is just killing old devices value because you cant buy a sinle piece of software for it even if it could run it without a problem. This is going to change quite rapidly if this problem persists (atleast for IOS devices)....
This concludes the hostage situation at the Apple app store. Apple, please we are your customers, do something, we dont want to stay hostages here, we want to go home....
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Originally Posted by SolipsismX
1) Why drop them? If a developer has an app that will easily work on that older OS and HW then so be it.
2) Apple has stated many times that sales of the latest device running the latest OS have outsold all previous devices ever sold. That means that going back to a device that can only run a 3 generation old OS means you're going back to 2008. We're talking about no later than the iPhone 3G. How many 1st and 2nd generation iPhones and iPod Touches are still in use? Whatever the number it pales in comparison to all the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th generation iPhones, and 3rd, 4th and 5th generation iPod Touches, and 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation iPads, and 1st generation iPad minis.
1) they did it already. Just look at any forum about apps not working after upgrading them on devices on 4.2.1... If you dont have a backup for example you can only download the newest version of the app that does not function on devices below 4.3. I dont know who to blame on this. It apears that the blame is on both. Apple for not making it optional to install older versions on devices that dont support newer ones after they use the new APIs. OR developers that try to cut support for old versions so they dont get lots of work. Still why would they decide not to sell good functioning software even if bug support ended for it and the quality is as good as it is in general in the app store (I think its always been good on most apps i bought).
2) why is this out of somebody elses bag to be able to install that older version of the app that worked well with 4.2.1. If a device owner that cant upgrade past 4.2.1 wants to buy a new app, ANY app he now CAN NOT! Why because there isnt any apps new versions that work with devices that are below 4.3!!!
Remember that time you said Apple would never make a cheap iPhone? I do!
Yeah, it's not cheap.
Great first post. /s
Thanks for the thread zombie for a pointless post.
Take a look at the price without subsidy and tell us that's cheap.
Thanks for the thread zombie for a pointless post.
Take a look at the price without subsidy and tell us that's cheap.
That's cheap. For a phone of that quality with that amount of features.