These financial "experts" are no smarter than your average gardener. Why do people give any value to anything they say? That's what I don't understand.
Because they have unnamed sources and supply checks! /s
These financial "experts" are no smarter than your average gardener. Why do people give any value to anything they say? That's what I don't understand. I am far from a financial expert but I did an experiment were I created two investment accounts about two years ago. One was managed (which I had to pay a fee for) by a large financial institution's financial "experts" and one was managed by a financial neophyte, me. The account I managed (I actually only managed it about once a month) did about 50% better than the account managed by the financial "idiots", sorry "experts". Lucky I guess. Maybe these guys need to get back into managing home mortgages. Oh wait, that didn't work out so well either.
The comparison is flawed (although the conclusion remains valid).
The bank 'expert' is compensated based on how much money he makes for the bank. You would be compensated on how well your account does. It's not surprising that you can do better than someone who makes money by encouraging excessive trades and trades in things which the bank might want to unload.
For real. All of these analyst are going to be proven wrong next week.
I hope so as well, but know that there have been iPad "misses" which resulted in continued drop in share prices. Just look at the result of the Jul-Sep 2012 quarter (4Q FY12). And I believe it happened on one other occasion over 2 years ago. I think others have said it here, that AAPL is risky for many reasons, but one of which is that market perceives Apple forced to rely on relatively few product lines. And when one product misses, it's a miss for the entire company. Lame logic when correlating this to revenue/profit, but accepted logic nonetheless.
Don't ask me what a "miss" means. Miss from what baseline? Nobody can tell you that. Tea leaves and brew's smoke.
I hope so as well, but know that there have been iPad "misses" which resulted in continued drop in share prices. Just look at the result of the Jul-Sep 2012 quarter (4Q FY12). And I believe it happened on one other occasion over 2 years ago. I think others have said it here, that AAPL is risky for many reasons, but one of which is that market perceives Apple forced to rely on relatively few product lines. And when one product misses, it's a miss for the entire company. Lame logic when correlating this to revenue/profit, but accepted logic nonetheless.
Don't ask me what a "miss" means. Miss from what baseline? Nobody can tell you that. Tea leaves and brew's smoke.
Fact is no one will know the truth until next week.
A couple of days ago analyst were saying iPhone sales were weak and iPad sales were strong now we're hearing iPhone sales were strong and iPad sales were weak.
I'm sure next week some analyst is going to say something else to manipulate the stock before earnings. You know what they say. Buy low sell high.
So the 'bear' manipulators got called out on the iPhone BS, so now they're switching to made up iPad numbers instead.
It just makes the current quarter better, since there seems to be demand, it's just the iPad mini sales will big this quarter, plus the iPad mini cellular models didn't start shipping until much later after the non-cellular model iPad mini started shipping.
Maybe Apple will have two back to back quarters that are much higher than last year's quarters were. That's how I'm interpreting it.
What supply issues? Ipad 4 and 3 had zero supply issues. And ipad mini sold and sells like hot cakes... Mini is the only on out of the 3 that may have had a supply issue..
Why is this dude bundling all ipads together and speculating supply issues for all of them.
How do these people get to keep their jobs? Unreal!
Moskowitz may be right, but the iPad mini is still sold out everywhere months after its launch so its sales are very strong.
That statement makes me wonder about two things: 1) is it actually true, and 2) what in the iPad mini would constrain production?
The only option I can see for production constraint is if Apple didn't think anybody would actually buy it, so they limited production significantly. That would have been a major blunder. The screens are "nothing special," and should have been in ready supply if other manufacturers were able to build quantities of tablets.
Shipping times at Apple's store do still indicate one week, so I guess the former is true.
So, to expand on the second point... would Apple have not predicted that they would sell 15MM in the quarter? Based on past experience, I would have assumed a demand of about 150% that of the iPad; maybe they thought they could drive more people to the full-size iPad, but the price differential doesn't seem to support that.
For real. All of these analyst are going to be proven wrong next week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
Fact is no one will know the truth until next week.
Oh, I was just responding to what seemed like you originally saying that all analysts will be proven wrong...but then you said that no one will know the truth.
No biggie.
My point is that some of us here on AI were burned before thinking that quarterly was going to be good, but Apple missed on iPads.
But again, I'm NOT doom/gloom. I'm of the impression that we'll be ok with iPhones, but that there may very well be low iPad numbers. And if iPad Minis don't make up for it, it'll be bad news for stock again. Low Macs wouldn't affect revenues (nor share prices) much. For some reason the market reacts dramatically to iPad numbers.
My posts where I argue against exuberant expectations of iPhone sales and predict long term decline in AAPL shares are blocked, most likely Tallest Skil, shortly after coming online. Very disappointed in the AI's arbitrary censorship. Anyway, the key for AAPL is not sales for the last quarter, which is history but forward guidance. And the guidance will be bad. The reason is that the rate of growth on iPhone 5 sales is slowing. This is expected considering iPhone 5 design shortcomings that make the it harder to use relative to its less expensive competitors. Clearly, those Apple fans that are in the la-la land of "Sir Ive can do no wrong" will insist that iPhone 5 is the ultimate masterpiece but many consumers, backed up by Consumer Reports, think different.
My posts where I argue against exuberant expectations of iPhone sales and predict long term decline in AAPL shares are blocked, most likely Tallest Skil, shortly after coming online. Very disappointed in the AI's arbitrary censorship.
Anyway, the key for AAPL is not sales for the last quarter, which is history but forward guidance. And the guidance will be bad. The reason is that the rate of growth on iPhone 5 sales is slowing. This is expected considering iPhone 5 design shortcomings that make the it harder to use relative to its less expensive competitors.
Clearly, those Apple fans that are in the la-la land of "Sir Ive can do no wrong" will insist that iPhone 5 is the ultimate masterpiece but many consumers, backed up by Consumer Reports, think different.
I don't think that's the issue at all.
I fully agree that the rate of growth of iPhone sales will decline - as do most thinking people. You can't keep up triple digit growth rates forever.
The issue is that even if one expects the growth rate to slow to just industry averages, then the stock should STILL be much, much higher than it is today.
Oh, I was just responding to what seemed like you originally saying that all analysts will be proven wrong...but then you said that no one will know the truth.
No biggie.
My point is that some of us here on AI were burned before thinking that quarterly was going to be good, but Apple missed on iPads.
But again, I'm NOT doom/gloom. I'm of the impression that we'll be ok with iPhones, but that there may very well be low iPad numbers. And if iPad Minis don't make up for it, it'll be bad news for stock again. Low Macs wouldn't affect revenues (nor share prices) much. For some reason the market reacts dramatically to iPad numbers.
The analyst are doing their research but obviously none of them know what the actual numbers are.
I'm not of the opinion that Apple will have golden numbers next week, but I thinks it's funny that people argue over estimates and guesstimates from analyst that know just a little bit more than we know.
2 weeks ago there was an article saying Mac sales were down 5% then the next week there was an article Mac sales were up 5%. Honestly either way you look at it sales were almost flat. It could be a rounding error when one of the analyst were doing their research. Then people here and elsewhere debate the fake numbers, when these are all just guesses from albeit smart people but guesses nonetheless.
Anyway as I said we won't know the real numbers on sales till next week.
And as far as iPad sales, if they are down the media will spin it that Amazon and Google stole Apples sales and not take into account supply issues. Oh well, that's how things work.
The analyst are doing their research but obviously none of them know what the actual numbers are.
I'm not of the opinion that Apple will have golden numbers next week, but I thinks it's funny that people argue over estimates and guesstimates from analyst that know just a little bit more than we know.
2 weeks ago there was an article saying Mac sales were down 5% then the next week there was an article Mac sales were up 5%. Honestly either way you look at it sales were almost flat. It could be a rounding error when one of the analyst were doing their research. Then people here and elsewhere debate the fake numbers, when these are all just guesses from albeit smart people but guesses nonetheless.
Anyway as I said we won't know the real numbers on sales till next week.
And as far as iPad sales, if they are down the media will spin it that Amazon and Google stole Apples sales and not take into account supply issues. Oh well, that's how things work.
Negative "reports" affect the stock price more than positive ones.
Amazing, they seem determined to pin Apples price to $500 at options expiry tomorrow and it looks like they'll pull it off. So glad that I don't play the short term game, there is no way you can fight these kind of shenanigans.
And yet every brick and mortar store in my state had plenty of stock, and the iPad/iPad Mini was selling at or below MSRP on eBay throughout December. The only way to get more than MSRP was by selling international, and attracting buyers in countries where they hadn't yet been released officially.
I know these analysts continue to speak of supply issues holding back overall sales, but too many factors indicate supply met demand throughout Q4.
And yet every brick and mortar store in my state had plenty of stock, and the iPad/iPad Mini was selling at or below MSRP on eBay throughout December. The only way to get more than MSRP was by selling international, and attracting buyers in countries where they hadn't yet been released officially.
I know these analysts continue to speak of supply issues holding back overall sales, but too many factors indicate supply met demand throughout Q4.
What kind of BS is this. Why would you sell a new iPad on eBay below the MSRP? Just return it. stop lying.
A heads-up for anyone waiting on an iPhone5 sale before upgrading. Best Buy's knocked off $50, making the 16GB iPhone5 just $150, of course including an obligatory contract.
Comments
Same can be said about the NYT.
Because they have unnamed sources and supply checks! /s
The comparison is flawed (although the conclusion remains valid).
The bank 'expert' is compensated based on how much money he makes for the bank. You would be compensated on how well your account does. It's not surprising that you can do better than someone who makes money by encouraging excessive trades and trades in things which the bank might want to unload.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
For real. All of these analyst are going to be proven wrong next week.
I hope so as well, but know that there have been iPad "misses" which resulted in continued drop in share prices. Just look at the result of the Jul-Sep 2012 quarter (4Q FY12). And I believe it happened on one other occasion over 2 years ago. I think others have said it here, that AAPL is risky for many reasons, but one of which is that market perceives Apple forced to rely on relatively few product lines. And when one product misses, it's a miss for the entire company. Lame logic when correlating this to revenue/profit, but accepted logic nonetheless.
Don't ask me what a "miss" means. Miss from what baseline? Nobody can tell you that. Tea leaves and brew's smoke.
Fact is no one will know the truth until next week.
A couple of days ago analyst were saying iPhone sales were weak and iPad sales were strong now we're hearing iPhone sales were strong and iPad sales were weak.
I'm sure next week some analyst is going to say something else to manipulate the stock before earnings. You know what they say. Buy low sell high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GQB
Ahhh...
So the 'bear' manipulators got called out on the iPhone BS, so now they're switching to made up iPad numbers instead.
It just makes the current quarter better, since there seems to be demand, it's just the iPad mini sales will big this quarter, plus the iPad mini cellular models didn't start shipping until much later after the non-cellular model iPad mini started shipping.
Maybe Apple will have two back to back quarters that are much higher than last year's quarters were. That's how I'm interpreting it.
Why is this dude bundling all ipads together and speculating supply issues for all of them.
How do these people get to keep their jobs?
Unreal!
The only option I can see for production constraint is if Apple didn't think anybody would actually buy it, so they limited production significantly. That would have been a major blunder. The screens are "nothing special," and should have been in ready supply if other manufacturers were able to build quantities of tablets.
Shipping times at Apple's store do still indicate one week, so I guess the former is true.
So, to expand on the second point... would Apple have not predicted that they would sell 15MM in the quarter? Based on past experience, I would have assumed a demand of about 150% that of the iPad; maybe they thought they could drive more people to the full-size iPad, but the price differential doesn't seem to support that.
Haha. Instant classic!
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
This issue has been extensively studied. The short answer is, your experience is true much more broadly.
A vast majority of mutual funds -- especially active funds -- underperform a blindfolded monkey.
Can I take the blindfold off now?
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
For real. All of these analyst are going to be proven wrong next week.
Quote:
Originally Posted by blackbook
Fact is no one will know the truth until next week.
Oh, I was just responding to what seemed like you originally saying that all analysts will be proven wrong...but then you said that no one will know the truth.
No biggie.
My point is that some of us here on AI were burned before thinking that quarterly was going to be good, but Apple missed on iPads.
But again, I'm NOT doom/gloom. I'm of the impression that we'll be ok with iPhones, but that there may very well be low iPad numbers. And if iPad Minis don't make up for it, it'll be bad news for stock again. Low Macs wouldn't affect revenues (nor share prices) much. For some reason the market reacts dramatically to iPad numbers.
Anyway, the key for AAPL is not sales for the last quarter, which is history but forward guidance. And the guidance will be bad. The reason is that the rate of growth on iPhone 5 sales is slowing. This is expected considering iPhone 5 design shortcomings that make the it harder to use relative to its less expensive competitors.
Clearly, those Apple fans that are in the la-la land of "Sir Ive can do no wrong" will insist that iPhone 5 is the ultimate masterpiece but many consumers, backed up by Consumer Reports, think different.
I don't think that's the issue at all.
I fully agree that the rate of growth of iPhone sales will decline - as do most thinking people. You can't keep up triple digit growth rates forever.
The issue is that even if one expects the growth rate to slow to just industry averages, then the stock should STILL be much, much higher than it is today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by drewys808
Oh, I was just responding to what seemed like you originally saying that all analysts will be proven wrong...but then you said that no one will know the truth.
No biggie.
My point is that some of us here on AI were burned before thinking that quarterly was going to be good, but Apple missed on iPads.
But again, I'm NOT doom/gloom. I'm of the impression that we'll be ok with iPhones, but that there may very well be low iPad numbers. And if iPad Minis don't make up for it, it'll be bad news for stock again. Low Macs wouldn't affect revenues (nor share prices) much. For some reason the market reacts dramatically to iPad numbers.
The analyst are doing their research but obviously none of them know what the actual numbers are.
I'm not of the opinion that Apple will have golden numbers next week, but I thinks it's funny that people argue over estimates and guesstimates from analyst that know just a little bit more than we know.
2 weeks ago there was an article saying Mac sales were down 5% then the next week there was an article Mac sales were up 5%. Honestly either way you look at it sales were almost flat. It could be a rounding error when one of the analyst were doing their research. Then people here and elsewhere debate the fake numbers, when these are all just guesses from albeit smart people but guesses nonetheless.
Anyway as I said we won't know the real numbers on sales till next week.
And as far as iPad sales, if they are down the media will spin it that Amazon and Google stole Apples sales and not take into account supply issues. Oh well, that's how things work.
Negative "reports" affect the stock price more than positive ones.
Amazing, they seem determined to pin Apples price to $500 at options expiry tomorrow and it looks like they'll pull it off. So glad that I don't play the short term game, there is no way you can fight these kind of shenanigans.
And yet every brick and mortar store in my state had plenty of stock, and the iPad/iPad Mini was selling at or below MSRP on eBay throughout December. The only way to get more than MSRP was by selling international, and attracting buyers in countries where they hadn't yet been released officially.
I know these analysts continue to speak of supply issues holding back overall sales, but too many factors indicate supply met demand throughout Q4.
Reminds me so of Tropic Thunder.
"A nutless monkey could do your job." - Les Grossman
What kind of BS is this. Why would you sell a new iPad on eBay below the MSRP? Just return it. stop lying.
A heads-up for anyone waiting on an iPhone5 sale before upgrading. Best Buy's knocked off $50, making the 16GB iPhone5 just $150, of course including an obligatory contract.
http://9to5toys.com/