Earnings call is Apple's opportunity to 'change the tone of the conversation'

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  • Reply 21 of 51
    cash907cash907 Posts: 893member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by 65C816 View Post



    Isn't it interesting how Google didn't meet expectations and still went up 4%?



    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-profit-jumps-as-sales-surge-2013-01-22?siteid=bnbh


     


    Google still has a strong outlook, and a very diverse portfolio. Apple, on the other hand, has made more noise in litigation than innovation lately, and the market is still on the fence in regards to a post Jobs Apple. This earnings report, as well as the coming year, are crucial to the company. Cook needs to show the world what he can do, and he better have something that turns heads and forces smiles. It's not a fair comparison or expectation, but that's what happens when you build the reputation of an entire company on the legend of one man.

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  • Reply 22 of 51

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by daveinpublic View Post



    Over the years, all I've heard is that Apple is nearing collapse. Every year, 'can Apple keep it up?' Even when Steve Jobs was in charge... When the iPad was introduced all the investors and news media were appalled - but the public loved it. Now everyone is scrambling to get in on the 'big iPod' bandwagon. iPhone 3gs - noone will buy it. iPhone 4s - oh no, we were expecting the iPhone 5. It never stops, ever. Whether Apple is going up or down, the headlines will always be the same. When the iPhone 5 came out - we're dissapointed, it's just a bigger screen, faster processor, and slimmer design, how is that an upgrade?


     


    Analysts promote their advice to neurotics. No sane investor would listen to those cretins.

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  • Reply 23 of 51
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    But the media craves Apple news because it gets eyeballs. Negative news getting more eyeballs is just the way it goes. So long as Apple has all the mindshare this will not change.

    It's actually mind boggling at how much praise and critique Apple gets from the media.
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  • Reply 24 of 51
    emig647emig647 Posts: 2,455member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    Apple stock up 20% since Cook took over. Outside of Ive, the rest of Apple employees are mindless drones.


    Ignorance sure must be blissful. You obviously don't know any Apple employees personally. 

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  • Reply 24 of 51


    WTF. Why the hell should Apple be doing damage control?!


    They have spent billions and utilized the best talent in the wold to make world class products while them lazy ass wall street pimps and them equally lazy ass investors sit on their lazy asses as the billions roll in.


    How disgusting!

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  • Reply 26 of 51
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Google is up 5% after market. We'll see what Apple does tomorrow. My guess is even with a blowout quarter the stock will be down because guidance will be soft.
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  • Reply 27 of 51
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    cash907 wrote: »
    Google still has a strong outlook, and a very diverse portfolio. Apple, on the other hand, has made more noise in litigation than innovation lately, and the market is still on the fence in regards to a post Jobs Apple. This earnings report, as well as the coming year, are crucial to the company. Cook needs to show the world what he can do, and he better have something that turns heads and forces smiles. It's not a fair comparison or expectation, but that's what happens when you build the reputation of an entire company on the legend of one man.
    Wow there's. so much BS in this post it isn't even funny. It's like Samsung passes around a scrip that everyone reads from which is pure BS and FUD.
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  • Reply 28 of 51


    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post

    I didn't think I needed the tag for that.


     


    You'd think so, and so did I, but…





    Originally Posted by emig647 View Post

    Ignorance sure must be blissful. You obviously don't know any Apple employees personally. 


     


    *cough*

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  • Reply 29 of 51
    Marvinmarvin Posts: 15,519moderator
    65c816 wrote: »
    Isn't it interesting how Google didn't meet expectations and still went up 4%?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/google-profit-jumps-as-sales-surge-2013-01-22?siteid=bnbh

    It's how it's been setup to work. If you have a direct link between the value and the goods, you can't manipulate it very easily to make a profit. When you have values that are really only based on people's perception of worth (to an extent this is true of everything but it's much more disconnected with certain things), you can affect the price much more easily. It's like the property market when it crashed. The house hasn't changed, it's just valued lower because of what people are willing to pay for it and that can be caused by just suggesting it's a bad time to buy because then buyers don't buy so demand goes down along with the prices.

    Tim should really play them at their own game. He should just say they didn't sell a single iPhone in the last quarter so the price doesn't go back up.

    Apple has no debt, is one of the most innovative companies in the world, is consistently delivering new products that people line up for, makes more profit than anyone in the sectors they are in and yet the stock goes down.
    Dell makes rubbish products, has poor margins, is only really in industries that have poor or negative growth and one hint of privatisation and the value goes up.
    It's complete nonsense but as long as people keep making a quick buck without doing any work, they ain't complaining.
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  • Reply 30 of 51


    Just quit looking at the stock price.


     


    Really. What has it got to do with what Apple is doing?


     


    Does Apple need the share price to be at $750 to continue doing what they are doing?


     


    Apple will continue until it doesn't.


     


    I want to see continued product innovation, increased production, and hopefully better market share as time goes on.


     


    Share price for Apple will continue to be a pain in the backside but does it really change anything.

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  • Reply 31 of 51
    The loss of Forstall was a plus. He was not very well like in the Apple hierarchy.
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  • Reply 32 of 51
    froodfrood Posts: 771member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Marvin View Post





    It's how it's been setup to work. If you have a direct link between the value and the goods, you can't manipulate it very easily to make a profit. When you have values that are really only based on people's perception of worth (to an extent this is true of everything but it's much more disconnected with certain things), you can affect the price much more easily. It's like the property market when it crashed. The house hasn't changed, it's just valued lower because of what people are willing to pay for it and that can be caused by just suggesting it's a bad time to buy because then buyers don't buy so demand goes down along with the prices.



    Tim should really play them at their own game. He should just say they didn't sell a single iPhone in the last quarter so the price doesn't go back up.



    Apple has no debt, is one of the most innovative companies in the world, is consistently delivering new products that people line up for, makes more profit than anyone in the sectors they are in and yet the stock goes down.

    Dell makes rubbish products, has poor margins, is only really in industries that have poor or negative growth and one hint of privatisation and the value goes up.

    It's complete nonsense but as long as people keep making a quick buck without doing any work, they ain't complaining.


     


    While your perception theory is interesting, I'd offer that Google's stock price went up 4% because the OP is right.  Google did not meet expectations.  They exceeded them.  If a company exceeds market expectations their price generally goes up.  (Google exceeded in profits but missed in revenue.  Profit is going to get the nod over revenue in most anyones book).


     


    Tim shouldn't play their game at all.  He can go to jail for that.  Its actually why Wall Street analysts expectations are almost universally higher than any companies estimates.  That is not a problem unique to Apple.  If Apple paints a rosier picture to drive the stock price up and then fails to meet, they can get sued for that.  It's got real teeth nowadays as part of the aftermath of that whole Enron thing a few years back.  If he paints your dismal picture and the stock plumets as a result, the AppleInsider lynch mob will be at his door in no time.  He should mostly ignore the markets (they will eventually adjust to reality either way- whether that turns out to be good or bad for the share price) and keep Apple focused on doing what they do best:


     


    Apple has no debt, is one of the most innovative companies in the world, is consistently delivering new products that people line up for, makes more profit than anyone in the sectors they are in and yet the stock goes down. which is why Wall Street has rewarded them with being by far the highest valued company in the world.


     


    Finally something we agree on.  As long as they sell tons of phones and new products and make more profits than anyone else- they will continue to support that valuation.  The minute it looks like they are not selling as many phones as expected or especially if their margins start dropping- then they are worth less than they were when they had higher margins and their shares should drop in value accordingly.


     


    So my prediction is simple.  If Apple reports that they sold more phones than expected at higher margins than expected- Apple shares will soar!  If Apple sold fewer phones than expected at lower margins than expected- Apple shares will plummet! If Apple sold more phones than expected at lower margins than expected- Apple shares will drop some!  Margins are critical to Apple's valuation and a drop in them would still leave Apple with a very rosy outlook, just not one quite as rosy as their current one.  Any unexpected good news from Tim's recent visit to China could change things considerably and Apple could soar even if their margins slipped a little.  My best guess is unit sales will exceed but margins will drop and that will weigh Apples shares slightly.  I'm hoping I'm wrong.  The wild card of China is still in play even if it isn't announced tomorrow though.


     


    You make it sound like the market works differently or favors Dell.  Seriously?  While I don't agree their products are junk, I do agree their margins are tiny and their market is shrivelling dramatically.  Has the market rewarded Dell for that?   Lets see- their current share price is about half what it was going for LESS THAN A YEAR AGO.  I'd say the market has 'rewarded' them far more than it has Apple.  Rightfully so- their outleak is bleaker than Apple's.  Did they get a jump because someone is thinking of privatizing them?  You betcha.  But that would happen to any company- even the 'Wall Street hated' Apple (if anyone had enough money to buy them).


     


    Saying 'Apple is doing better than Dell so its share price shouldn't drop' doesn't really make sense.  Its share price should go up or down based on how it is performing relative to its own current valuation.  Apples shares could drop to 1/10th of their current value.  Say $50 a share.  Ouch!!(and not going to happen) They would still be valued at a market cap more than double Dell's.

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  • Reply 33 of 51
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member
    frood wrote: »

    While your perception theory is interesting, I'd offer that Google's stock price went up 4% because the OP is right.  Google did not meet expectations.  They exceeded them.  If a company exceeds market expectations their price generally goes up.  (Google exceeded in profits but missed in revenue.  Profit is going to get the nod over revenue in most anyones book).

    Please explain the price of AMZN using your thesis.
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  • Reply 34 of 51
    Dumb money will chase any growth stock.

    Well said.
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  • Reply 35 of 51
    rezwitsrezwits Posts: 909member
    To me it's simple. A few executives decided to cash out some chips, and ended up getting paid. Then after that others followed along, and got paid. Now the price is around 500, and others can now play the field, and speculate if they want to make money or not. Al Gore decided, and dropped in and bought shares/options, maybe others will invest maybe not. It's how the stock market works, and how GOOD Companies, MAKE money for investors. But for some reason the haters and doubters see it as an opportunity to say the sky is falling. Just dumb... There could be a drought for a little while, I mean if you think about the iPhone happening was a big thing. Maybe the Apple iTV or whatever will be big? Who knows... I mean the stock price was going crazy up for so long just riding the iPhone and then iPad for 5 years . Now everybody has an iPhone, that's going to buy one. Move on as we normally do...
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  • Reply 36 of 51


    People here like to complain about manipulation in AAPL, which if you really think about it objectively, is nearly impossible to do for the multiple billions that many groups of hedge funds and market makers need to even move the needle ever so slightly...


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rezwits View Post



    To me it's simple. A few executives decided to cash out some chips, and ended up getting paid. Then after that others followed along, and got paid. Now the price is around 500, and others can now play the field, and speculate if they want to make money or not. Al Gore decided, and dropped in and bought shares/options, maybe others will invest maybe not. It's how the stock market works, and how GOOD Companies, MAKE money for investors. But for some reason the haters and doubters see it as an opportunity to say the sky is falling. Just dumb... There could be a drought for a little while, I mean if you think about the iPhone happening was a big thing. Maybe the Apple iTV or whatever will be big? Who knows... I mean the stock price was going crazy up for so long just riding the iPhone and then iPad for 5 years . Now everybody has an iPhone, that's going to buy one. Move on as we normally do...


     


    No, Gore did not buy stocks or options, he exercised options that he had from 10 yrs ago that are way way in the money already, and the only explanation for doing that now is he's getting ready to sell and cash out his shares after earning, which is no more bullish than a Tim Cook's PR silence technique to aid the AAPL bag holders.

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  • Reply 37 of 51
    adamcadamc Posts: 583member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by quinney View Post





    Please explain the price of AMZN using your thesis.


    I too am waiting for his priceless answer.

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  • Reply 38 of 51
    Marvinmarvin Posts: 15,519moderator
    frood wrote:
    If a company exceeds market expectations their price generally goes up.

    The minute it looks like they are not selling as many phones as expected or especially if their margins start dropping- then they are worth less than they were when they had higher margins and their shares should drop in value accordingly.

    The value drops before we know for a fact this is the case. Apple hasn't said anything about the sales yet. Shouldn't the stock value reflect the facts about how well the company is doing rather than how well people think they are doing?
    frood wrote:
    So my prediction is simple.  If Apple reports that they sold more phones than expected at higher margins than expected- Apple shares will soar!  If Apple sold fewer phones than expected at lower margins than expected- Apple shares will plummet!

    You know it doesn't work like that though. It should but it doesn't.
    frood wrote:
    You make it sound like the market works differently or favors Dell.  Seriously?

    More that it favours opinions and feelings over facts. It makes it more volatile than it needs to be and while this makes it more interesting, it also brings it closer to gambling when it should be more like retail. The price of the iPhone isn't dropping because of how people feel about Apple. They are still selling at a high price because people are still buying while competitors like Amazon and Google sell products at break-even and Samsung at low margins.
    frood wrote:
    Did they get a jump because someone is thinking of privatizing them?  You betcha.

    Again, not facts though. It's a valuation based on what might happen. If it doesn't happen then it goes down but during that period, absolutely nothing has changed about Dell's earning potential so the fluctuation in the value is meaningless, which makes the whole valuation system meaningless if it's just going to be based on how people feel at a given time.
    kingchael wrote:
    People here like to complain about manipulation in AAPL, which if you really think about it objectively, is nearly impossible to do for the multiple billions that many groups of hedge funds and market makers need to even move the needle ever so slightly.

    http://business.time.com/2012/10/22/viewpoint-how-wall-street-rigs-the-game/

    That's from an executive director from Goldman Sachs. The size of the scam is irrelevant. Look at the Bernie Madoff scandal. Poor Kevin Bacon lost nearly everything.

    "the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.

    in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of a nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than consciously or voluntarily"

    How often do we see this on AI, everybody knows the rumours are complete rubbish but within a few minutes they spread like wildfire through every blog. Each of them claiming to have valid sources enforcing a positive or negative message about Apple's well-being and over and over they repeat the lies (the iTV thing has been going for over 4 years). No matter how many billions are invested, it's all people controlling the buying and selling.
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  • Reply 39 of 51


    This seems to be the norm in the Tech industry.  The media always pulls for an underdog and builds them up.  The underdog doesn't have to be a small company.  A big company doing something very different in a new market (such as the iPhone and iPad) works.  Once they build them up, they wait for any sign their innovation is "slowing", then they're teardown them down and look for a new underdog.


     


    I just think the honeymoon is over for Apple.  Just like Google was able to hide behind its "do no evil" mantra for years before they were called on it, Apple had a great reputation and avoided a lot of the negative press for years.  That's no longer true.  Their successful, and that's something many in America cannot stomach: success.  


     


    Competitors are trying to ruin Apple's reputation as an innovator and make Apple look stale, and many in the press are more than happy to help out.  Much of the press is owned by content companies that have always have a love/hate relationship with Apple, so they were just waiting for an excuse to go after them.


     


    I don't think this call will change any of that.  It might help investors, but I am confident the press will just find a new angle to come at Apple from.


     


    By the way, I am not saying any of this is right  or fair for Apple, I just think it is the world they face now.  They're going to have to deal with all the negatives that come with being the largest tech company in the world.  

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  • Reply 40 of 51
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    rednival wrote: »
    This seems to be the norm in the Tech industry.  The media always pulls for an underdog and builds them up.  The underdog doesn't have to be a small company.  A big company doing something very different in a new market (such as the iPhone and iPad) works.  Once they build them up, they wait for any sign their innovation is "slowing", then they're teardown them down and look for a new underdog.

    I just think the honeymoon is over for Apple.  Just like Google was able to hide behind its "do no evil" mantra for years before they were called on it, Apple had a great reputation and avoided a lot of the negative press for years.  That's no longer true.  Their successful, and that's something many in America cannot stomach: success.  

    Competitors are trying to ruin Apple's reputation as an innovator and make Apple look stale, and many in the press are more than happy to help out.  Much of the press is owned by content companies that have always have a love/hate relationship with Apple, so they were just waiting for an excuse to go after them.

    I don't think this call will change any of that.  It might help investors, but I am confident the press will just find a new angle to come at Apple from.

    By the way, I am not saying any of this is right  or fair for Apple, I just think it is the world they face now.  They're going to have to deal with all the negatives that come with being the largest tech company in the world.  

    I can understand all of that and certainly expect that the media's infatuation fades after a way (they don't have the attention span for anything more serious). What drives me nuts about AAPL is how ridiculous it has gotten. Apple's forward, cash adjusted P/E is in the low 7s - well under half of the average stock on the market. By that logic, the market is expecting not only that Apple will stop growing, but that its profits are going to drop by 50% or more in the near future. That's just totally implausible.
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