As with most of these surveys, the results are not particularly meaningful.
1. They don't provide the error margin. It looks like some of the changes are within the margin of error - and therefore not meaningful.
2. Even if the differences are STATISTICALLY meaningful, there's no evidence that the sample is representative of the population as a whole. GIven that the data comes from web browsing data, it's going to be dependent on which sites they use, so is almost certainly not representative (unless by chance).
Hurry...spin spin spin....deny deny deny.
If these were so off all the time, why are they in line with each other for over 2 years now?
It's ok I'll save you the trouble, it's all those phantom (non existant) Android feature phones everyone's buying by the millions right J? Oh wait this is web browsing data you say, well feature phones don't do that. I mean..I mean... yawn.
I miss the days you had meaningful informed posts.
Since according to my math the Android OEMs presented remained steady at 47.1% for the 3 month period, Apple's gains probably come from Android users switching to iPhone. Android probably stayed the same by younger feature phone users upgrading to Android. I think at this point in the US any feature phone users who have not already switched to iPhone are likely to choose Android going forward as they are probably more cost conscious than early adopters.
I agree with the first part of your analysis, but not the second. Based on carrier stats we've all seen reported, there are quite a few Android to iPhone switchers. However, there's no reason to think new smartphone users will primarily choose Android, for at least a couple of reasons,
* Many of these will be young people "coming of age" and getting their first smartphone.
* With iPhones available starting at $0.99, phone cost won't be a driving factor, especially since the contract costs are going to be the same for both.
Well when you look at the estimates that around 40% of current mobile phone subscribers are not smartphone users, that indicates to me that there are a lot of adults who are resisting upgrading to a smartphone. These are the people who I propose will eventually choose Android based on price alone. The costs are not always equal for example Metro PCS is offering $40 unlimited everything for Android phones which is a lot less than other carriers.
Aside from that, the fastest growing segment of the population in the US is in the Latino community and based on my observations in this demographic they are decidedly of the Android persuasion. In keeping with my admittedly unscientific assumptions I see the coming of age youth as, by in large, migrating toward Android. Please keep in mind that I am not presenting any argument that Android is better than iOS as I am a advocate of the opposite but I am just looking at potential trends and this seems to be a possible scenario.
Well when you look at the estimates that around 40% of current mobile phone subscribers are not smartphone users, that indicates to me that there are a lot of adults who are resisting upgrading to a smartphone. These are the people who I propose will eventually choose Android based on price alone. The costs are not always equal for example Metro PCS is offering $40 unlimited everything for Android phones which is a lot less than other carriers.
Aside from that, the fastest growing segment of the population in the US is in the Latino community and based on my observations in this demographic they are decidedly of the Android persuasion. In keeping with my admittedly unscientific assumptions I see the coming of age youth as, by in large, migrating toward Android. Please keep in mind that I am not presenting any argument that Android is better than iOS as I am a advocate of the opposite but I am just looking at potential trends and this seems to be a possible scenario.
Apart from your observations regarding the "coming of age" demographic, you may be correct. In that case, I think your conclusion is overly generalized and their choices are more likely to fall along the lines of the larger demographic into which they fall.
I do, however, think we'll continue to see an increasing number of switchers who, dissatisfied with Android, not committed to that ecosystem, will move in significant numbers to iPhone. This is a significant trend that is, I believe, just starting to show itself as the contracts of 1st gen Android users begin to run out.
So, while Android continues to fill in market share at the bottom, "feature phone", end, it will continue to lose it from an increasingly larger segment of the top end of the smartphone market.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by jragosta
As with most of these surveys, the results are not particularly meaningful.
1. They don't provide the error margin. It looks like some of the changes are within the margin of error - and therefore not meaningful.
2. Even if the differences are STATISTICALLY meaningful, there's no evidence that the sample is representative of the population as a whole. GIven that the data comes from web browsing data, it's going to be dependent on which sites they use, so is almost certainly not representative (unless by chance).
Hurry...spin spin spin....deny deny deny.
If these were so off all the time, why are they in line with each other for over 2 years now?
It's ok I'll save you the trouble, it's all those phantom (non existant) Android feature phones everyone's buying by the millions right J? Oh wait this is web browsing data you say, well feature phones don't do that. I mean..I mean... yawn.
I miss the days you had meaningful informed posts.
OK. So I was right then. :smokey:
Just so you know: every minor fluctuation in market share will be reported on AppleInsider.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anonymouse
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Since according to my math the Android OEMs presented remained steady at 47.1% for the 3 month period, Apple's gains probably come from Android users switching to iPhone. Android probably stayed the same by younger feature phone users upgrading to Android. I think at this point in the US any feature phone users who have not already switched to iPhone are likely to choose Android going forward as they are probably more cost conscious than early adopters.
I agree with the first part of your analysis, but not the second. Based on carrier stats we've all seen reported, there are quite a few Android to iPhone switchers. However, there's no reason to think new smartphone users will primarily choose Android, for at least a couple of reasons,
* Many of these will be young people "coming of age" and getting their first smartphone.
* With iPhones available starting at $0.99, phone cost won't be a driving factor, especially since the contract costs are going to be the same for both.
Well when you look at the estimates that around 40% of current mobile phone subscribers are not smartphone users, that indicates to me that there are a lot of adults who are resisting upgrading to a smartphone. These are the people who I propose will eventually choose Android based on price alone. The costs are not always equal for example Metro PCS is offering $40 unlimited everything for Android phones which is a lot less than other carriers.
Aside from that, the fastest growing segment of the population in the US is in the Latino community and based on my observations in this demographic they are decidedly of the Android persuasion. In keeping with my admittedly unscientific assumptions I see the coming of age youth as, by in large, migrating toward Android. Please keep in mind that I am not presenting any argument that Android is better than iOS as I am a advocate of the opposite but I am just looking at potential trends and this seems to be a possible scenario.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Well when you look at the estimates that around 40% of current mobile phone subscribers are not smartphone users, that indicates to me that there are a lot of adults who are resisting upgrading to a smartphone. These are the people who I propose will eventually choose Android based on price alone. The costs are not always equal for example Metro PCS is offering $40 unlimited everything for Android phones which is a lot less than other carriers.
Aside from that, the fastest growing segment of the population in the US is in the Latino community and based on my observations in this demographic they are decidedly of the Android persuasion. In keeping with my admittedly unscientific assumptions I see the coming of age youth as, by in large, migrating toward Android. Please keep in mind that I am not presenting any argument that Android is better than iOS as I am a advocate of the opposite but I am just looking at potential trends and this seems to be a possible scenario.
Apart from your observations regarding the "coming of age" demographic, you may be correct. In that case, I think your conclusion is overly generalized and their choices are more likely to fall along the lines of the larger demographic into which they fall.
I do, however, think we'll continue to see an increasing number of switchers who, dissatisfied with Android, not committed to that ecosystem, will move in significant numbers to iPhone. This is a significant trend that is, I believe, just starting to show itself as the contracts of 1st gen Android users begin to run out.
So, while Android continues to fill in market share at the bottom, "feature phone", end, it will continue to lose it from an increasingly larger segment of the top end of the smartphone market.