To all those debating about whether to count "true PC's", tablets, pads, smartphones, and internet connected combo toaster/refrigerators, remember that it was Microsoft that threw the gauntlet down in the first place with it's "Windows Everywhere" philosophy, most recently preached at CES 2011.
"Whatever device you use, now or in the future, Windows will be there...You’ll be able to use Windows anywhere you go, from the small screen to the big screen.”
I wonder if Microsoft should start building Windows on top of Unix the way Apple does, make Windows just another "skin" GUI that could be used on Apple or Android machines, on any machine basically.
Too logical even to consider.
I personally was hoping they would ditch the FAT/NTFS and registry system/kernel way back when Longhorn was in dev stages. There actually "was some talk" about this, but the higher ups decided to play it safe. It's not in MS's DNA to redefine themselves. Witness Surface RT/Win 8 with a tacked on Win 7 desktop. :no:
The iPad is representative of a new category. PCs are mature. Many corperations keep PCs for 3-4 years, but because the ipad is so new, and since Apple holds back key features and trickles them out one at a time, people tend to buy new every year, or two at most - I dont know anyone still using an iPad 1, but I know lots of people happily and productively using PCs from that era or before.
An anecdotal example of this is a friend of mine who has had 4 smart phones since 2006, but uses the same laptop, a simple ram upgrade and a wipe and reload with Windows 7 and it is still very usable for web surfing, online banking, and the occasional stuff that isn't so great on a cell phone.
Give me a decent mid range PC from 2007, and about $50 of ram, I can give you a great little Windows 8 PC for basic non-gaming type family computing...can your 2007 smartphone even be used for anything? how about your 2009 model?
Many many people buy PCs 2 to 3 times a decade, those people buy phones 5 times a decade and tablets about 4 times a decade on average based on my observation.
Absolutely in my experience as well.
The fact that 90% of the usage I see from "normal" everyday users is spent in the browser, makes upgrading old PCs rather painless and a serious cost-conscience decision until it completely breaks or is not worth the time, effort and cost to replace any given part. Browsers are better (even IE!), Windows 8 is a speedy OS... and have even found that some people like Metro(?!...really!). The other 10% is photo, video and music organizing/playing... with some light letter writing, PDF stuff.
HOWEVER... all of the above tasks are well represented by the iOS ecosystem (Apps) and cloud computing and services (Dropbox, iCloud and iWork, SkyDrive, GoogleDrive and Docs, Box, Picassa, Spotify, Rdio, etc. etc.), and in many cases far easier to accomplish those simple tasks on an iPad/tablet when the PC needs to be replaced. Many (most) of the people that I have helped move to an iPad, state that it's much more fun to use than their PC ever was. They feel safer trying more and going to more places on the web with their iPad, than they ever did with a PC due to the security concerns.
Imagine that!... iPad: the "technology enabler for the tech-adverse" crowd. I have witnessed on countless occasions over the last 2-3 years how technically literate many of these people have become. They previously knew next to nothing about Windows and it's management... whereas now they even show me a thing or 2, especially Apps that they have found useful and/or fun. The very same people who were scared to death of installing anything on their PCs in the past.
Summary:
"regurgitate" an old PC if you can't afford an iPad;
replace a broken PC with an iPad (yes... only an iPad! 8-)
PS. I stated once "iPad/tablet". I was trying to be fair and objective. Screw it! Buy an iPad. :smokey:
>>>Just like fax replaced telex, and email is replacing fax.
I do believe the above bolded text has happened more than a few years ago. I trashed my fax machine in 2007 and haven't missed it since. Those that absolutely need to fax me something use one of the myriad of web services to do so.
I always hate this debate. I find it interesting that we debate over a term that was coined back in 1977. The evolution of technology makes it impossible to classify something under the simple outdated "personal computer" definition. One question I would ask someone if they consider an iOS device to be as productive as an OSX device then why doesn't Apple allocate an education discount? Do we based the definition on hardware of software specs?
The fact that an iOS device can not run a full version of just about any "personal computer" software eliminate it from the category of personal computer? I would say no but it clearly puts these devices in a different category. For as much as I use a scientific calculator that would be considered more of a personal computer to me than my iPad.
This is nothing but a feel good topic for some because the term personal computer has no value in 2013.
You said it!
Said another way: for the average user, the PC platform has no value going forward... not only in 2013. "Personal computer software" is your hang-up and major problem here.
Mobile touch computing and specifically iOS is still very much in it's infancy. It still needs to be optimized, functions added, potential workflows easier to define and link associated apps together. BTW: This modularized approach to apps/workflow was hinted at many many years ago by Adobe nonetheless. Software modules, rather than suites and the continuing bloat of individual x86 software. Today, the very basis of iOS is apps (modules), which makes going forward in this new paradigm far easier to accomplish than getting say an Adobe to completely rework their programs and suite.
It is for this very reason that I advocate people using iOS devices rather than the other OSes, because at the moment, it forces you to rewire and rethink your workflows. As an example: plugging into a computer or using USB sticks to transfer files, rather than using Wifi, a file manager, a cloud service and syncing.
On the opposite side, the other OSes and specifically Windows... are NOT... moving people and technology forward in the least. All they are doing is catering half-assed to what people know now about using PCs, rather than be bold and stick with say Metro. They surely know whats coming in the future, and even do their best trying to nudge people towards that vision with their marketing and throwing Metro dead center in-your-face-style. However, they're failing when they compromise that message with the desktop being included and enabling "old" PC software. It gives people an "out" to learning new ways of working and helps absolutely no one, not the consumers nor the developers by muddying the waters like this.
I'm most excited to hear what Apple has up it's sleeve for iOS 7. This very well could be the "break out" version that starts allowing power users to do what they want or need to facilitate the above "modularized" App computing.
* my apologies for drifting on a tangent... regardless or in spite of your scientific calendar calculator 8-)... take your pick *
No Apple education discount? Exactly why should there be if there's no alternative to their devices on the market? I guess marketing-wise I could see it... just to be a nice guy and all... but again... other than that I see no need for Apple to be a charity at this point.
Some people like to say that you will never be able achieve the power of x86/Intel chips and software with ARM chips.
My answer to that: at any time that Apple feels that ARM is holding back their vision for iOS, they will switch. And I believe you will see a more powerful iOS on Intel chips long before you'll see OS X running on ARM.
I know it's hard for many people to fathom or believe, but I thoroughly think that iOS and Android/Chrome will be the more "powerful" platforms in the future. Not only for ubiquity of use... but even for the software and apps. They will do more, do it faster, and do the tasks easier than we can (could?) on a traditional "PC platform".
You're insufferable. The context is all there. Are there more installations of OS X than there are Macs? Yes. That is what is what said and that is what was countered.
Actually, we don't know that.
While it's true that there are Hackintosh computers (where the number of OS X installations is greater than the number of Macs), there are also people who bought Macs and wiped the drive to install Linux or Windows (so the number of OS X installations is less than the number of Macs).
I have no idea which group is greater, although I doubt that either number is all that large.
Said another way: for the average user, the PC platform has no value going forward... not only in 2013. "Personal computer software" is your hang-up and major problem here.
I think it's simply a matter of lazy copyrighters - or people with an agenda.
For decades, "personal computer" has had a meaning. It meant desktop and laptop computers. An IBM mainframe or Vax cluster was not a personal computer even though it did computing tasks. A desktop calculator was not a personal computer even though it did calculations. Personal computer had a meaning.
When iPads and iPhones came out, someone thought it would be cool to pretend that they were personal computers, so they ba$tardized the meaning of the term instead of using a generic term like 'computing device'.
It's as if in 1903, people said 'we've been driving cars for years and a car provides transportation, so we'll call that flying thing that the Wright Brothers invented a 'car' because it also provides transportation". In that case, the correct term for the entire transportation market is to call them 'transportation devices' rather than to call them 'cars'. Same thing here:
Computing devices is the broad market. Computing devices include the following:
- Desktop computers
- Laptop computers
- Tablets
- mobile phones
- programmable calculators (perhaps)
- Servers
There's no need to blend the different device categories together.
While it's true that there are Hackintosh computers (where the number of OS X installations is greater than the number of Macs), there are also people who bought Macs and wiped the drive to install Linux or Windows (so the number of OS X installations is less than the number of Macs).
I have no idea which group is greater, although I doubt that either number is all that large.
Logic would tell you that the number of machines that ship with Mac, Windows, or Linux is smaller than the number of installations of Mac, Windows, or Linux. There is simply no other way to see it. I'm not sure how we get to people wiping an OS so it's no longer counted as an installation as it comes from that factor pre-installed invalidated a prior installation. It sounds like you're talking about a snapshot of a current installed base for which we don't have a firm figure but in any case when you look at who would wipe their machine to use Linux v. who would create Hackintoshs or run OS X in a VM on their Mac I wouldn't bet on the installed base OS X being less than the number of Macs.
So was my Palm Tungsten... any smarphone I ever had (probably some feature phones, too)... Fisher-Price learning-for-kids computers...
But it is not a PC.
That being said, these things might replace PCs. Before something else replaces them, in a 10 year time. Just like fax replaced telex, and email is replacing fax.
Or maybe not.
We'll see.
Let me see ...
Just to be clear, a 'PC', IBM's marketing term for a 'personal computer' in the early 1980's ... when at the time Apple ]['s , Apple ///'s and later Lisa's and Mac's were Apple's personal computers but Apple didn't use the term PC even though all were personal computers as it was an IBM marketing term (see how this logic goes around in circles?). Meanwhile everyone agrees an iPad is also a computer ... (what else could it be, a washing machine?) ... so if a PC is a computer and an iPad is a computer I don't get the logic in your statement that an iPad isn't a PC. Of course it isn't as PC is a marketing term, but both are computers ...
Some people like to say that you will never be able achieve the power of x86/Intel chips and software with ARM chips.
My answer to that: at any time that Apple feels that ARM is holding back their vision for iOS, they will switch. And I believe you will see a more powerful iOS on Intel chips long before you'll see OS X running on ARM.
I know it's hard for many people to fathom or believe, but I thoroughly think that iOS and Android/Chrome will be the more "powerful" platforms in the future. Not only for ubiquity of use... but even for the software and apps. They will do more, do it faster, and do the tasks easier than we can (could?) on a traditional "PC platform".
I agree with this. Adding to what you mentioned, moving iOS to x86_64 would be comparatively easy since the drivers would be self contained. Printing is done with AirPrint and the Lightning connector bypasses the need for specific vendor drivers for accessories. Adding ARM to OS X would make things quite difficult for a desktop OS.
We had a decent amount of lead time with the move from Motorola to PPC and PPC to Intel. Perhaps Apple could find some clever work to speed this up or have driver support work without incident but I don't see history here of being able to take shortcuts.
Logic would tell you that the number of machines that ship with Mac, Windows, or Linux is smaller than the number of installations of Mac, Windows, or Linux. There is simply no other way to see it. I'm not sure how we get to people wiping an OS so it's no longer counted as an installation as it comes from that factor pre-installed invalidated a prior installation. It sounds like you're talking about a snapshot of a current installed base for which we don't have a firm figure but in any case when you look at who would wipe their machine to use Linux v. who would create Hackintoshs or run OS X in a VM on their Mac I wouldn't bet on the installed base OS X being less than the number of Macs.
Re the last sentence. While I agree with the premise I wouldn't under estimate the number of OS X upgrade installations purchased during the life of a Mac. The upgrade rate is phenomenal in Macs as is their longevity as hardware. So I'd add that in to everything you say and get even more OS X sales.
Some people like to say that you will never be able achieve the power of x86/Intel chips and software with ARM chips.
My answer to that: at any time that Apple feels that ARM is holding back their vision for iOS, they will switch. And I believe you will see a more powerful iOS on Intel chips long before you'll see OS X running on ARM.
I know it's hard for many people to fathom or believe, but I thoroughly think that iOS and Android/Chrome will be the more "powerful" platforms in the future. Not only for ubiquity of use... but even for the software and apps. They will do more, do it faster, and do the tasks easier than we can (could?) on a traditional "PC platform".
I have a suspicion you are correct and the (make up a size here) iPad Pro for CAD, Music etc. would be just such a beast. Whether Intel or some future Apple CPUs is my only question.
"Totally" is the operative word.. As in PCs have not "totally" replaced maimframes...
What's significant is that tablets will replace the majority of desktops... It's already happening...
The majority? Your evidence?
We know that SOME tablets have replaced SOME PCs. We also know that SOME PCs have replaced SOME mainframes. But I'm not aware of any evidence that the majority of PCs will be replaced by tablets in the foreseeable future.
In fact, your first sentence is completely wrong, anyway. In 1970, 100% of the computers in the world were mainframes. Today, 0.001% of the computers in the world were mainframes. In the 1970s, mainframes were used for things like accounting, word processing, and corporate databases. Today, PCs are used for those things. In a very real sense, PCs HAVE replaced mainframes for most applications. Still, mainframes remain separate from PCs - just as tablets remain separate from PCs, even though some tablets have replaced some PCs.
I do believe the above bolded text has happened more than a few years ago. I trashed my fax machine in 2007 and haven't missed it since. Those that absolutely need to fax me something use one of the myriad of web services to do so.
Just sayin'...:p
Maybe for you. In business, we're still a long way from faxes disappearing. It may happen eventually, but there are still a lot of people sending a lot of faxes with dedicated fax machines.
Logic would tell you that the number of machines that ship with Mac, Windows, or Linux is smaller than the number of installations of Mac, Windows, or Linux. There is simply no other way to see it.
That part is undoubtedly true. Almost all machines that are sold will have an installation of OS X, Linux, or Windows. Even if one is replaced with another, there's still a 1:1 relationship. But since some number of machines are dual boot, the number of OSs will always exceed the number of machines.
I'm not sure how we get to people wiping an OS so it's no longer counted as an installation as it comes from that factor pre-installed invalidated a prior installation. It sounds like you're talking about a snapshot of a current installed base for which we don't have a firm figure but in any case when you look at who would wipe their machine to use Linux v. who would create Hackintoshs or run OS X in a VM on their Mac I wouldn't bet on the installed base OS X being less than the number of Macs.
You can bet however you like. That doesn't make it true.
My point is that you can't simply look at Hackintosh computers and say that OS X has more installations than the number of Macs sold. You also have to consider the opposite - that someone might have bought a Mac and wiped the drive to install a different OS. The former increases the number of OS X versions in use, the latter decreases it. And I haven't seen any evidence of which one is more likely.
In the end, though, it's a silly argument. The number of either of those situations is quite small and has a minor impact on the totals. The number of dual boot machines is almost certainly much larger than the number of Hackintosh computers or Macs that have been wiped to run solely WIndows or Linux. So, ultimately, the number of OS X OR Windows OR Linux installations will be greater than the number of machines sold with that OS.
If you want to try to define that further, I'd look at the options:
Macs running Windows. This is a very large percentage - every Mac I've owned for 10 years has run Windows (natively for the past 5 or so). LOTS of people run Windows on their Macs - either by VM or dual boot. In this case, the number of Windows installations is greater than the number of Windows computers sold.
Windows computers running OS X as a dual boot. It may be a matter of the circles I travel in, but I don't think this is a very large number. I've seen it done on the Internet using a VM, but never met anyone who actually did it.
Linux computers running Windows or Mac OS X as a second OS. Almost zero - since very, very few computers are sold initially with Linux. They were sold either with Windows or Mac OS - so the sale goes into the Windows or Mac column.
So, if you add it all up, it is most likely that the sales figures underestimate the number of people using Windows rather than underestimating the number who use Mac OS X. And that seems to make sense - while the market share for Mac users has risen, many (perhaps even most) Macs run Windows either as dual boot or in a VM, so the sales figures underestimate the number of Windows installations.
I have a suspicion you are correct and the (make up a size here) iPad Pro for CAD, Music etc. would be just such a beast. Whether Intel or some future Apple CPUs is my only question.
That absolutely remains to be seen. I'm not pulling "Per Se" for one or the other, only the most powerful, yet power efficient and scalable of course. Would be great to apply and experience Moore's Law with ARM chips, and to an extent, I think we are today.
I truly think the absolute hardest decision for Apple at this point, is what and how to expose securely, iOS services for power users. As it is pointed out as an advantage for Apple's adversaries, a limited subset of the file system must be exposed at some point, as well as user choice and selecting of: a) preferred Apps, and b) linking those Apps together for a seamless workflow. IMO... it needs to come soon, because we're starting to see duplicate functions and overlap within many Apps, in able to attain a half-way decent workflow, thus unnecessarily leading to App-Bloat.
Basically, the ability to choose: extended keyboard A, with spell checker B, thesaurus Y, saving automatically to Drop Box Z and the file system "here". When adding images for example, please use images (proxies?) from Skydrive, ftp server folder J, with a quick edit stop in Snapseed, before placing in the document. This all based on defaults from the Settings panel...AND a per project over-ride from within the apps. Think how sweet... and suite-killing that would be!
Should the above be on by default or for "everyday users and consumers"? Emphatically NO! Nothing... absolutely NOTHING like Windows or Android, which complicates things far to much in the desire to be open for anything and everything out of the box. However, something like a drop-down with "Simple, Advanced, Professional and Developer Modes" in Settings could be workable I think.
NOTE: Over the last few months I've been diving (deep) into WordPress and other dev frameworks like Twitter Bootstrap, and learning a new amazing text editor called Sublime 2. All of these "apps" are extensible through basic plug-ins and/or includes. The whole time whenever I have to make a trip back to Photoshop, Bridge, LR, Illustrator (not to mention if I was doing something in the music realm)... it seems like I'm going back 15 years in time. Legacy software... and legacy workflows indeed!
THE #1 Question: who has the vision, guts and programming chops at Apple to pull something like this off? Eddy Cue, Craig Federighi... any snotty-nosed arrogant genius kid in a turtle-neck running around we've never heard of???? Daydreaming like this makes ya miss "that guy" *sniffle sniffle *
Edit: for the "pedantics" in this thread.... yes, I know SJ wasn't a programmer. Whatever.
[QUOTE]Quote: Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post
I do believe the above bolded text has happened more than a few years ago. I trashed my fax machine in 2007 and haven't missed it since. Those that absolutely need to fax me something use one of the myriad of web services to do so.
Just sayin'...1tongue.gif[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Maybe for you. In business, we're still a long way from faxes disappearing. It may happen eventually, but there are still a lot of people sending a lot of faxes with dedicated fax machines. [/QUOTE]
Legacy workflows demand it I guess... but there is no more worthless machine in an office than a fax.
Since I gave up on faxes long ago, may I ask: do the newer fax machines also save the fax in digital form as a PDF for archiving and search, or do you have to scan it back in yourself... duplicating the duplicate that should already be in digital form, possibly even OCRing it along the way? As it relates to only fax machines, have they found a way to make the ink last longer in the resultant fax?
Truly... I'm curious and seriously too busy to even research it.
The big secret, the secret that Apple kept under the rug for as long as possible, is that iPhone isn't just a smartphone with apps. It's a pocket-sized computer with a phone. By calling it iPhone instead of iMac Pocket (or something more computer-like) Apple hid iPhone's true nature. In plain sight.
Of course, Apple's competitors in the smartphone space, Microsoft included, all knew that. Microsoft tried very hard to make their Windows CE devices (and all subsequent devices running re-named versions of Windows CE up to WinMob 6.5) act like shrunken Wintel PCs. Palm certainly didn't hide the computer-ish nature of their various devices. Neither did RIM.
But consumers didn't realize that iPhone's true nature was computer + phone. They didn't care. The fresh multi-touch interface, great styling, ease of use, and iTunes ecosystem were all so compelling that the underlying computer-ishness receded into the background. Where it belongs. Apple managed to successfully consumerize all that technology, and they're now reaping the rewards in profits and market share.
So Microsoft's contraction, its presence on 97% of all computing devices declining to just 20%, might seem like a surprise to consumers. But Microsoft has seen this decline happening for years. And that's why they were forced to push out Windows Phone and Surface. Not because they wanted to, not because they loved the mobile device concept, not because they wanted to lead the post-PC revolution. Because they were compelled to react, somehow, anyhow, in an attempt to stop the inexorable slide. They were dragged into it by forces beyond their control. And that unwillingness is revealed in every aspect of their WP and Surface products.
The secret is out. iPhone and its clones really are computers. Not traditional "PC"s, but a new post-PC form of personal computer.
Comments
Quote:
Originally Posted by xenon8000
With all the latest shortcomings and crashes of mountain lion I couldn't agree more...
In the words of Solips - "You're insufferable!".
To all those debating about whether to count "true PC's", tablets, pads, smartphones, and internet connected combo toaster/refrigerators, remember that it was Microsoft that threw the gauntlet down in the first place with it's "Windows Everywhere" philosophy, most recently preached at CES 2011.
"Whatever device you use, now or in the future, Windows will be there...You’ll be able to use Windows anywhere you go, from the small screen to the big screen.”
-- Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer http://www.wired.com/gadgetlab/2011/01/microsoft-keynote-2/
Too logical even to consider.
I personally was hoping they would ditch the FAT/NTFS and registry system/kernel way back when Longhorn was in dev stages. There actually "was some talk" about this, but the higher ups decided to play it safe. It's not in MS's DNA to redefine themselves. Witness Surface RT/Win 8 with a tacked on Win 7 desktop. :no:
Absolutely in my experience as well.
The fact that 90% of the usage I see from "normal" everyday users is spent in the browser, makes upgrading old PCs rather painless and a serious cost-conscience decision until it completely breaks or is not worth the time, effort and cost to replace any given part. Browsers are better (even IE!), Windows 8 is a speedy OS... and have even found that some people like Metro(?!...really!). The other 10% is photo, video and music organizing/playing... with some light letter writing, PDF stuff.
HOWEVER... all of the above tasks are well represented by the iOS ecosystem (Apps) and cloud computing and services (Dropbox, iCloud and iWork, SkyDrive, GoogleDrive and Docs, Box, Picassa, Spotify, Rdio, etc. etc.), and in many cases far easier to accomplish those simple tasks on an iPad/tablet when the PC needs to be replaced. Many (most) of the people that I have helped move to an iPad, state that it's much more fun to use than their PC ever was. They feel safer trying more and going to more places on the web with their iPad, than they ever did with a PC due to the security concerns.
Imagine that!... iPad: the "technology enabler for the tech-adverse" crowd. I have witnessed on countless occasions over the last 2-3 years how technically literate many of these people have become. They previously knew next to nothing about Windows and it's management... whereas now they even show me a thing or 2, especially Apps that they have found useful and/or fun. The very same people who were scared to death of installing anything on their PCs in the past.
Summary:
PS. I stated once "iPad/tablet". I was trying to be fair and objective. Screw it! Buy an iPad. :smokey:
I do believe the above bolded text has happened more than a few years ago. I trashed my fax machine in 2007 and haven't missed it since. Those that absolutely need to fax me something use one of the myriad of web services to do so.
Just sayin'...:p
You said it!
Said another way: for the average user, the PC platform has no value going forward... not only in 2013. "Personal computer software" is your hang-up and major problem here.
Mobile touch computing and specifically iOS is still very much in it's infancy. It still needs to be optimized, functions added, potential workflows easier to define and link associated apps together. BTW: This modularized approach to apps/workflow was hinted at many many years ago by Adobe nonetheless. Software modules, rather than suites and the continuing bloat of individual x86 software. Today, the very basis of iOS is apps (modules), which makes going forward in this new paradigm far easier to accomplish than getting say an Adobe to completely rework their programs and suite.
It is for this very reason that I advocate people using iOS devices rather than the other OSes, because at the moment, it forces you to rewire and rethink your workflows. As an example: plugging into a computer or using USB sticks to transfer files, rather than using Wifi, a file manager, a cloud service and syncing.
On the opposite side, the other OSes and specifically Windows... are NOT... moving people and technology forward in the least. All they are doing is catering half-assed to what people know now about using PCs, rather than be bold and stick with say Metro. They surely know whats coming in the future, and even do their best trying to nudge people towards that vision with their marketing and throwing Metro dead center in-your-face-style. However, they're failing when they compromise that message with the desktop being included and enabling "old" PC software. It gives people an "out" to learning new ways of working and helps absolutely no one, not the consumers nor the developers by muddying the waters like this.
I'm most excited to hear what Apple has up it's sleeve for iOS 7. This very well could be the "break out" version that starts allowing power users to do what they want or need to facilitate the above "modularized" App computing.
* my apologies for drifting on a tangent... regardless or in spite of your scientific
calendarcalculator 8-)... take your pick *No Apple education discount? Exactly why should there be if there's no alternative to their devices on the market? I guess marketing-wise I could see it... just to be a nice guy and all... but again... other than that I see no need for Apple to be a charity at this point.
Some people like to say that you will never be able achieve the power of x86/Intel chips and software with ARM chips.
My answer to that: at any time that Apple feels that ARM is holding back their vision for iOS, they will switch. And I believe you will see a more powerful iOS on Intel chips long before you'll see OS X running on ARM.
I know it's hard for many people to fathom or believe, but I thoroughly think that iOS and Android/Chrome will be the more "powerful" platforms in the future. Not only for ubiquity of use... but even for the software and apps. They will do more, do it faster, and do the tasks easier than we can (could?) on a traditional "PC platform".
Actually, we don't know that.
While it's true that there are Hackintosh computers (where the number of OS X installations is greater than the number of Macs), there are also people who bought Macs and wiped the drive to install Linux or Windows (so the number of OS X installations is less than the number of Macs).
I have no idea which group is greater, although I doubt that either number is all that large.
I think it's simply a matter of lazy copyrighters - or people with an agenda.
For decades, "personal computer" has had a meaning. It meant desktop and laptop computers. An IBM mainframe or Vax cluster was not a personal computer even though it did computing tasks. A desktop calculator was not a personal computer even though it did calculations. Personal computer had a meaning.
When iPads and iPhones came out, someone thought it would be cool to pretend that they were personal computers, so they ba$tardized the meaning of the term instead of using a generic term like 'computing device'.
It's as if in 1903, people said 'we've been driving cars for years and a car provides transportation, so we'll call that flying thing that the Wright Brothers invented a 'car' because it also provides transportation". In that case, the correct term for the entire transportation market is to call them 'transportation devices' rather than to call them 'cars'. Same thing here:
Computing devices is the broad market. Computing devices include the following:
- Desktop computers
- Laptop computers
- Tablets
- mobile phones
- programmable calculators (perhaps)
- Servers
There's no need to blend the different device categories together.
Logic would tell you that the number of machines that ship with Mac, Windows, or Linux is smaller than the number of installations of Mac, Windows, or Linux. There is simply no other way to see it. I'm not sure how we get to people wiping an OS so it's no longer counted as an installation as it comes from that factor pre-installed invalidated a prior installation. It sounds like you're talking about a snapshot of a current installed base for which we don't have a firm figure but in any case when you look at who would wipe their machine to use Linux v. who would create Hackintoshs or run OS X in a VM on their Mac I wouldn't bet on the installed base OS X being less than the number of Macs.
Let me see ...
Just to be clear, a 'PC', IBM's marketing term for a 'personal computer' in the early 1980's ... when at the time Apple ]['s , Apple ///'s and later Lisa's and Mac's were Apple's personal computers but Apple didn't use the term PC even though all were personal computers as it was an IBM marketing term (see how this logic goes around in circles?). Meanwhile everyone agrees an iPad is also a computer ... (what else could it be, a washing machine?) ... so if a PC is a computer and an iPad is a computer I don't get the logic in your statement that an iPad isn't a PC. Of course it isn't as PC is a marketing term, but both are computers ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cash907
Oh yeah?
I'll just leave this here.
http://www.hackintosh.com/
Congratulations.This is to be nominated for the "dumbest post ever award".
you must be a fool to think that hackintoshes are any sliver of a measurement of OSX iOS usage.
I agree with this. Adding to what you mentioned, moving iOS to x86_64 would be comparatively easy since the drivers would be self contained. Printing is done with AirPrint and the Lightning connector bypasses the need for specific vendor drivers for accessories. Adding ARM to OS X would make things quite difficult for a desktop OS.
We had a decent amount of lead time with the move from Motorola to PPC and PPC to Intel. Perhaps Apple could find some clever work to speed this up or have driver support work without incident but I don't see history here of being able to take shortcuts.
Re the last sentence. While I agree with the premise I wouldn't under estimate the number of OS X upgrade installations purchased during the life of a Mac. The upgrade rate is phenomenal in Macs as is their longevity as hardware. So I'd add that in to everything you say and get even more OS X sales.
I have a suspicion you are correct and the (make up a size here) iPad Pro for CAD, Music etc. would be just such a beast. Whether Intel or some future Apple CPUs is my only question.
The majority? Your evidence?
We know that SOME tablets have replaced SOME PCs. We also know that SOME PCs have replaced SOME mainframes. But I'm not aware of any evidence that the majority of PCs will be replaced by tablets in the foreseeable future.
In fact, your first sentence is completely wrong, anyway. In 1970, 100% of the computers in the world were mainframes. Today, 0.001% of the computers in the world were mainframes. In the 1970s, mainframes were used for things like accounting, word processing, and corporate databases. Today, PCs are used for those things. In a very real sense, PCs HAVE replaced mainframes for most applications. Still, mainframes remain separate from PCs - just as tablets remain separate from PCs, even though some tablets have replaced some PCs.
Maybe for you. In business, we're still a long way from faxes disappearing. It may happen eventually, but there are still a lot of people sending a lot of faxes with dedicated fax machines.
That part is undoubtedly true. Almost all machines that are sold will have an installation of OS X, Linux, or Windows. Even if one is replaced with another, there's still a 1:1 relationship. But since some number of machines are dual boot, the number of OSs will always exceed the number of machines.
You can bet however you like. That doesn't make it true.
My point is that you can't simply look at Hackintosh computers and say that OS X has more installations than the number of Macs sold. You also have to consider the opposite - that someone might have bought a Mac and wiped the drive to install a different OS. The former increases the number of OS X versions in use, the latter decreases it. And I haven't seen any evidence of which one is more likely.
In the end, though, it's a silly argument. The number of either of those situations is quite small and has a minor impact on the totals. The number of dual boot machines is almost certainly much larger than the number of Hackintosh computers or Macs that have been wiped to run solely WIndows or Linux. So, ultimately, the number of OS X OR Windows OR Linux installations will be greater than the number of machines sold with that OS.
If you want to try to define that further, I'd look at the options:
Macs running Windows. This is a very large percentage - every Mac I've owned for 10 years has run Windows (natively for the past 5 or so). LOTS of people run Windows on their Macs - either by VM or dual boot. In this case, the number of Windows installations is greater than the number of Windows computers sold.
Windows computers running OS X as a dual boot. It may be a matter of the circles I travel in, but I don't think this is a very large number. I've seen it done on the Internet using a VM, but never met anyone who actually did it.
Linux computers running Windows or Mac OS X as a second OS. Almost zero - since very, very few computers are sold initially with Linux. They were sold either with Windows or Mac OS - so the sale goes into the Windows or Mac column.
So, if you add it all up, it is most likely that the sales figures underestimate the number of people using Windows rather than underestimating the number who use Mac OS X. And that seems to make sense - while the market share for Mac users has risen, many (perhaps even most) Macs run Windows either as dual boot or in a VM, so the sales figures underestimate the number of Windows installations.
That absolutely remains to be seen. I'm not pulling "Per Se" for one or the other, only the most powerful, yet power efficient and scalable of course. Would be great to apply and experience Moore's Law with ARM chips, and to an extent, I think we are today.
I truly think the absolute hardest decision for Apple at this point, is what and how to expose securely, iOS services for power users. As it is pointed out as an advantage for Apple's adversaries, a limited subset of the file system must be exposed at some point, as well as user choice and selecting of: a) preferred Apps, and b) linking those Apps together for a seamless workflow. IMO... it needs to come soon, because we're starting to see duplicate functions and overlap within many Apps, in able to attain a half-way decent workflow, thus unnecessarily leading to App-Bloat.
Basically, the ability to choose: extended keyboard A, with spell checker B, thesaurus Y, saving automatically to Drop Box Z and the file system "here". When adding images for example, please use images (proxies?) from Skydrive, ftp server folder J, with a quick edit stop in Snapseed, before placing in the document. This all based on defaults from the Settings panel...AND a per project over-ride from within the apps. Think how sweet... and suite-killing that would be!
Should the above be on by default or for "everyday users and consumers"? Emphatically NO! Nothing... absolutely NOTHING like Windows or Android, which complicates things far to much in the desire to be open for anything and everything out of the box. However, something like a drop-down with "Simple, Advanced, Professional and Developer Modes" in Settings could be workable I think.
NOTE: Over the last few months I've been diving (deep) into WordPress and other dev frameworks like Twitter Bootstrap, and learning a new amazing text editor called Sublime 2. All of these "apps" are extensible through basic plug-ins and/or includes. The whole time whenever I have to make a trip back to Photoshop, Bridge, LR, Illustrator (not to mention if I was doing something in the music realm)... it seems like I'm going back 15 years in time. Legacy software... and legacy workflows indeed!
THE #1 Question: who has the vision, guts and programming chops at Apple to pull something like this off? Eddy Cue, Craig Federighi... any snotty-nosed arrogant genius kid in a turtle-neck running around we've never heard of????
Edit: for the "pedantics" in this thread.... yes, I know SJ wasn't a programmer. Whatever.
Originally Posted by ThePixelDoc View Post
I do believe the above bolded text has happened more than a few years ago. I trashed my fax machine in 2007 and haven't missed it since. Those that absolutely need to fax me something use one of the myriad of web services to do so.
Just sayin'...1tongue.gif[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE]Maybe for you. In business, we're still a long way from faxes disappearing. It may happen eventually, but there are still a lot of people sending a lot of faxes with dedicated fax machines.
[/QUOTE]
Legacy workflows demand it I guess... but there is no more worthless machine in an office than a fax.
Since I gave up on faxes long ago, may I ask: do the newer fax machines also save the fax in digital form as a PDF for archiving and search, or do you have to scan it back in yourself... duplicating the duplicate that should already be in digital form, possibly even OCRing it along the way? As it relates to only fax machines, have they found a way to make the ink last longer in the resultant fax?
Truly... I'm curious and seriously too busy to even research it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreyfus2
The Seattle Times had a very interesting article today painting an even grimmer picture for MS...
http://seattletimes.com/html/microsoftpri0/2019853243_goldman_sachs_microsoft_os_has_gone_from_more_than.html
Wow. Thanks for the link!
The big secret, the secret that Apple kept under the rug for as long as possible, is that iPhone isn't just a smartphone with apps. It's a pocket-sized computer with a phone. By calling it iPhone instead of iMac Pocket (or something more computer-like) Apple hid iPhone's true nature. In plain sight.
Of course, Apple's competitors in the smartphone space, Microsoft included, all knew that. Microsoft tried very hard to make their Windows CE devices (and all subsequent devices running re-named versions of Windows CE up to WinMob 6.5) act like shrunken Wintel PCs. Palm certainly didn't hide the computer-ish nature of their various devices. Neither did RIM.
But consumers didn't realize that iPhone's true nature was computer + phone. They didn't care. The fresh multi-touch interface, great styling, ease of use, and iTunes ecosystem were all so compelling that the underlying computer-ishness receded into the background. Where it belongs. Apple managed to successfully consumerize all that technology, and they're now reaping the rewards in profits and market share.
So Microsoft's contraction, its presence on 97% of all computing devices declining to just 20%, might seem like a surprise to consumers. But Microsoft has seen this decline happening for years. And that's why they were forced to push out Windows Phone and Surface. Not because they wanted to, not because they loved the mobile device concept, not because they wanted to lead the post-PC revolution. Because they were compelled to react, somehow, anyhow, in an attempt to stop the inexorable slide. They were dragged into it by forces beyond their control. And that unwillingness is revealed in every aspect of their WP and Surface products.
The secret is out. iPhone and its clones really are computers. Not traditional "PC"s, but a new post-PC form of personal computer.