Unfortunately that logic does not apply to watches. If it did, quartz watches would have overwhelmed mechanical watches a long time ago. Compared to quartz watch, a mechanical watch is fragile, unreliable and inaccurate. Still, people are willing to pay huge sums of money for them. If convenience trumped everything, then why would people pay $5K-$10K for a Rolex or Omega (which, BTW is owned by the Swatch group) instead of buying a Seiko that does the job far better and costs a couple of hundred?
Of course, there tons more quartz watches sold than mechanical watches but the money is in mechanical watches. The Swiss make more money from watches than anyone and the vast majority of that money is from mechanical watches. Far from "adapting to culture and technological changes", the Swiss are moving away from high-tech - have been for the last 30 years!
The selling point of a mechanical watch is not its technology. It is sold as a work of craftsmanship, hand made as opposed to being run off an assembly line, a piece of jewelry for the wrist, something that can passed on to the next generation as an heirloom. It is an anachronism but it has had surprisingly enduring appeal - so much so that the Japanese brands who dumped mechanical watches during the quartz revolution are looking to get back in. They are the ones who should be worried about the iWatch.
- HCE
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
i haven't heard about Swatch in years. Those guys are still around?
Actually, I own a few. They still make a couple of cool, relatively inexpensive ones.
But their design capabilities seem to have significantly declined over the years.
(As an aside, people may not know this, but Swatch is, by far, the largest watch company in the world. They own a number of major luxury brands -- e.g., Omega, Blancpain, Breguet -- as well as high-end jewelry stores. They also have a chokehold on some critical watch components, as one of the biggest component suppliers to the industry. In other words, no one would be more threatened by Apple's entry into this market than Swatch).
Yes I think that's a point. Swatch doesn't compete with Omega, for example. They address totally different market segments. My secretary used to have about 20 Swatches ... different styles and colours etc, because to her it was a fashion accessory and she picked one to match her dress every day. But that was mainly because of the fact that they were CHEAP, and in fashion at the time. I wouldn't ever dream of buying an iWatch. Not because it's not possibly a fantastic device, but I have a preference for a simple analogue self-winding watch that is in its own way an engineering masterpiece. Until I lost it I had an Omega seamaster, 1949 model that I got from my dad. It worked perfectly for about 50 years, was indestructible and neither loud or gaudy ... a refined device and utterly reliable (1 Sec/month).
That's why the Swatch CEO is probably right. There are very differnet market segments and an iWatch won't fill the bill for all of these. Specially not if it costs a couple of hundred dollars or so.
However, the design of the swatch "fashion accessory watches" is definitely not that cool any more, and they have tons of competitors in the low price range.
I really can't see an iWatch being a real mass market hit. But let's wait and see if and what Apple finally brings one to market.
When it was announced, it was said that Apple has a world-wide exclusive right on using LiquidMetal (the technology not a particular alloy) in "mobile devices." I guess the key is whether a watch counts as a watch or a "mobile device."
When did Apple say anything about a watch? What watch product have they been "touting"? :???:
That's an important point to keep in mind. I love seeing people talk about Apple hyping a product - when Apple has never even mentioned it. That's the problem with all these silly rumors - they acquire a life of their own and when Apple fails to commercialize every single silly idea that people come up with, the stock gets hammered.
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
The point is that the iWatch and most of the Swatch Group's brands are not in the same industry! Saying that the iWatch will affect Breguet and Omega (just because they too sell watches) is as ludicrous as saying that the iWatch will affect Mercedes-Benz because all cars have clocks in them. A top-of-the-line Omega (and pretty much all Breguets) can cost as much as a car.
Quote:
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
This is precisely not the point. Citizen cells far more watches than the Swatch Group - so they are, in a sense a lot more "popular". However Citizens annual watch-related revenues are a little over a billion dollars - the Swatch Group's revenues are around 8 times as much.
As soon we start hearing from people who "know" an industry comment on how Apple couldn't possibly make changes to said industry we can (historically speaking) be sure Apple is going to 1) enter that industry, 2) change that industry for the betterment of the consumer, and 3) dominate that industry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1
Who said that the watch would replace the phone? I don't recall reading that anywhere.
That's exactly what I was thinking.
You guys have to broaden your perspectives...
As the images below show, a wrist phone is possible.. The battery problem has been resolved, it includes a Siri-like assistant (operator), notifications, internal storage, microphone and earphone in an attractive, protective case ...
All that's needed is to build a wrist band for this little sucker
Seriously, it was not that long ago that these were the phones that only the well-to-do (rich) could afford.
I sort of agree with him. It'll be a marginal revenue stream for Apple. But hardly the next iPod.
Watches today are fashion accessories. You don't really need one when you have a smartphone in your pocket. You wear one to accessorize. And quite a few people have several watches which they rotate depending on occassion.
And the most expensive watches? They are the ones that do nothing but tell time. You won't see smartwatches from Rolex and Tag Heuer. Nothing would devalue their brands faster.
That said, there's room for brands like Swatch (I mean their cheaper brands, not the likes of Omega) to get into the smartwatch business. Since they target younger audiences with disposable timepieces anyway.
I hope I'm wrong, for the sake of my AAPL stock. But I don't think I will be.
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
Number 1 already happened decades ago, look up the quartz crisis.
Swatch Group are doing very well by the way, luxury watches are a growth industry (and even if they weren't, there's a watchmaking tradition that spans several centuries here in Switzerland; it's a pretty robust business).
The iWatch is not a watch. It will be a hardware/software solution to replace your tv. The strap is like one of those snap on bracelets that will actually be the remote control. Whether the name of the TV will be iWatch is not yet determined. (Just a theory.) It would be quite a clever cover though.
The point is that the iWatch and most of the Swatch Group's brands are not in the same industry! Saying that the iWatch will affect Breguet and Omega (just because they too sell watches) is as ludicrous as saying that the iWatch will affect Mercedes-Benz because all cars have clocks in them. A top-of-the-line Omega (and pretty much all Breguets) can cost as much as a car.
Again, you can't simply that your business is insulated from all threats based on a rumour of an unknown device.
Not once have I stated that any wearable items from Apple will affect other markets I'm trying to get you to see that there is a long history of markets that have been affected by such things. The whip seller didn't think cars were an issue for his business since automobiles aren't wipes.
Imagine that Apple makes a wrist-based product that is so popular and useful that pretty much wear it all the time. Does that mean people will wear their luxury fashion system next to their now fashionable and required Apple (or any number of competitors) device, or wear it on the opposing wrist? As we've seen time and time again this happens.
The only thing I agree with from Hayek's comments is that people who wear watches often like to change them frequently. I may wear three or four different watches each week, so it's unlikely that an Apple watch would become the only watch I wear. However, if it had a heart rate monitor built in or other features that made it useful for working out and doing cardio, it could become my "daily wear" for exercise, if it were well-designed, sturdy and didn't get in the way.
Why do you assume that Apple wouldn't do the same thing and come up with lots of designs so that people can buy an iWatch for each day of the week? It'd be a simple thing to keep all the iWatches you own synced up with your iOS device. My prediction is iWatch will be as much a fashion accessory as a tech device. A lot of its advertising presence will be in places where Apple never used to advertise such as fashion magazines, during major city fashion weeks, etc. and aside from the usual outlets, it will be sold in boutiques and dept. store fashion counters.
Why do you assume that Apple wouldn't do the same thing and come up with lots of designs so that people can buy an iWatch for each day of the week? It'd be a simple thing to keep all the iWatches you own synced up with your iOS device. My prediction is iWatch will be as much a fashion accessory as a tech device. A lot of its advertising presence will be in places where Apple never used to advertise such as fashion magazines, during major city fashion weeks, etc. and aside from the usual outlets, it will be sold in boutiques and dept. store fashion counters.
Imagine if Apple made a platform where vendors can build their own devices that meets specs that will interact with your iDevices. That's not unlike their program for the iPod Dock and Lightning connector programs. I'd much rather it be open source but I doubt that will happen so I'm at least wanting a program since one-size-fits-all has not shown to hold true for appeal, jewelry, or accessories.
Number 1 already happened decades ago, look up the quartz crisis.
Swatch Group are doing very well by the way, luxury watches are a growth industry (and even if they weren't, there's a watchmaking tradition that spans several centuries here in Switzerland; it's a pretty robust business).
:sigh How is "it's a pretty robust business" a valid retort to claims that there is nothing to worry about nor will there ever be anything to worry about.
As the images below show, a wrist phone is possible.. The battery problem has been resolved, it includes a Siri-like assistant (operator), notifications, internal storage, microphone and earphone in an attractive, protective case ...
All that's needed is to build a wrist band for this little sucker
Seriously, it was not that long ago that these were the phones that only the well-to-do (rich) could afford.
cool picture - & a design that iFixit could not complain about
"Personally, I don't believe it's the next revolution," the head of the largest Swiss watchmaker said, according to Bloomberg . "Replacing an iPhone with an interactive terminal on your wrist is difficult. You can't have an immense display."
What did I get from that? Negativity abound! 'I don't believe', 'is difficult', and 'you can't have' is precisely the same thinking that kept smartphone half screen and half plastic buttons... Until iPhone...
Which by the way, the industry leaders of their respective companies and we know who they are... laughed at the iPhone!
Comments
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
i haven't heard about Swatch in years. Those guys are still around?
Actually, I own a few. They still make a couple of cool, relatively inexpensive ones.
But their design capabilities seem to have significantly declined over the years.
(As an aside, people may not know this, but Swatch is, by far, the largest watch company in the world. They own a number of major luxury brands -- e.g., Omega, Blancpain, Breguet -- as well as high-end jewelry stores. They also have a chokehold on some critical watch components, as one of the biggest component suppliers to the industry. In other words, no one would be more threatened by Apple's entry into this market than Swatch).
Yes I think that's a point. Swatch doesn't compete with Omega, for example. They address totally different market segments. My secretary used to have about 20 Swatches ... different styles and colours etc, because to her it was a fashion accessory and she picked one to match her dress every day. But that was mainly because of the fact that they were CHEAP, and in fashion at the time. I wouldn't ever dream of buying an iWatch. Not because it's not possibly a fantastic device, but I have a preference for a simple analogue self-winding watch that is in its own way an engineering masterpiece. Until I lost it I had an Omega seamaster, 1949 model that I got from my dad. It worked perfectly for about 50 years, was indestructible and neither loud or gaudy ... a refined device and utterly reliable (1 Sec/month).
That's why the Swatch CEO is probably right. There are very differnet market segments and an iWatch won't fill the bill for all of these. Specially not if it costs a couple of hundred dollars or so.
However, the design of the swatch "fashion accessory watches" is definitely not that cool any more, and they have tons of competitors in the low price range.
I really can't see an iWatch being a real mass market hit. But let's wait and see if and what Apple finally brings one to market.
Both wrong. Apple has an exclusive on the use of Liquidmetal products in "consumer electronics".
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/08/11/apple-liquidmetal-license_n_678591.html
IIRC, Apple paid to renew the license last year.
Maybe. OTOH, some people still wear a watch even though they have a phone. There are other reasons why it would be useful, as well.
That's an important point to keep in mind. I love seeing people talk about Apple hyping a product - when Apple has never even mentioned it. That's the problem with all these silly rumors - they acquire a life of their own and when Apple fails to commercialize every single silly idea that people come up with, the stock gets hammered.
SONY already have it, it's called Smart Watch, can they sue Apple for stealing? Can they!? Apple probably would!
And this Sony Smart Watch is the same thing as an Apple's Ive Strong bracelet that you've never seen nor used?
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
The point is that the iWatch and most of the Swatch Group's brands are not in the same industry! Saying that the iWatch will affect Breguet and Omega (just because they too sell watches) is as ludicrous as saying that the iWatch will affect Mercedes-Benz because all cars have clocks in them. A top-of-the-line Omega (and pretty much all Breguets) can cost as much as a car.
Quote:
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
This is precisely not the point. Citizen cells far more watches than the Swatch Group - so they are, in a sense a lot more "popular". However Citizens annual watch-related revenues are a little over a billion dollars - the Swatch Group's revenues are around 8 times as much.
- HCE
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
As soon we start hearing from people who "know" an industry comment on how Apple couldn't possibly make changes to said industry we can (historically speaking) be sure Apple is going to 1) enter that industry, 2) change that industry for the betterment of the consumer, and 3) dominate that industry.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bdkennedy1
Who said that the watch would replace the phone? I don't recall reading that anywhere.
That's exactly what I was thinking.
You guys have to broaden your perspectives...
As the images below show, a wrist phone is possible.. The battery problem has been resolved, it includes a Siri-like assistant (operator), notifications, internal storage, microphone and earphone in an attractive, protective case ...
All that's needed is to build a wrist band for this little sucker
Seriously, it was not that long ago that these were the phones that only the well-to-do (rich) could afford.
Watches today are fashion accessories. You don't really need one when you have a smartphone in your pocket. You wear one to accessorize. And quite a few people have several watches which they rotate depending on occassion.
And the most expensive watches? They are the ones that do nothing but tell time. You won't see smartwatches from Rolex and Tag Heuer. Nothing would devalue their brands faster.
That said, there's room for brands like Swatch (I mean their cheaper brands, not the likes of Omega) to get into the smartwatch business. Since they target younger audiences with disposable timepieces anyway.
I hope I'm wrong, for the sake of my AAPL stock. But I don't think I will be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
1) As I said, there is a long history of people making that mistake of assuming their industry is immune to any interference.
2) What is the most popular watch sold in the world and why is the most popular?
Number 1 already happened decades ago, look up the quartz crisis.
Swatch Group are doing very well by the way, luxury watches are a growth industry (and even if they weren't, there's a watchmaking tradition that spans several centuries here in Switzerland; it's a pretty robust business).
I like Swatch
Quote:
Originally Posted by drblank
i haven't heard about Swatch in years. Those guys are still around?
They've done a lot of marketing and some nice watches lately here in Europe.
Again, you can't simply that your business is insulated from all threats based on a rumour of an unknown device.
Not once have I stated that any wearable items from Apple will affect other markets I'm trying to get you to see that there is a long history of markets that have been affected by such things. The whip seller didn't think cars were an issue for his business since automobiles aren't wipes.
Imagine that Apple makes a wrist-based product that is so popular and useful that pretty much wear it all the time. Does that mean people will wear their luxury fashion system next to their now fashionable and required Apple (or any number of competitors) device, or wear it on the opposing wrist? As we've seen time and time again this happens.
Why do you assume that Apple wouldn't do the same thing and come up with lots of designs so that people can buy an iWatch for each day of the week? It'd be a simple thing to keep all the iWatches you own synced up with your iOS device. My prediction is iWatch will be as much a fashion accessory as a tech device. A lot of its advertising presence will be in places where Apple never used to advertise such as fashion magazines, during major city fashion weeks, etc. and aside from the usual outlets, it will be sold in boutiques and dept. store fashion counters.
Imagine if Apple made a platform where vendors can build their own devices that meets specs that will interact with your iDevices. That's not unlike their program for the iPod Dock and Lightning connector programs. I'd much rather it be open source but I doubt that will happen so I'm at least wanting a program since one-size-fits-all has not shown to hold true for appeal, jewelry, or accessories.
:sigh How is "it's a pretty robust business" a valid retort to claims that there is nothing to worry about nor will there ever be anything to worry about.
[VIDEO]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dick Applebaum
You guys have to broaden your perspectives...
As the images below show, a wrist phone is possible.. The battery problem has been resolved, it includes a Siri-like assistant (operator), notifications, internal storage, microphone and earphone in an attractive, protective case ...
All that's needed is to build a wrist band for this little sucker
Seriously, it was not that long ago that these were the phones that only the well-to-do (rich) could afford.
cool picture - & a design that iFixit could not complain about
What did I get from that? Negativity abound! 'I don't believe', 'is difficult', and 'you can't have' is precisely the same thinking that kept smartphone half screen and half plastic buttons... Until iPhone...
Which by the way, the industry leaders of their respective companies and we know who they are... laughed at the iPhone!