IDC: PC shipments see steepest quarterly decline ever, Apple drops 7.5% [u]
Estimates from market analysis firm IDC released on Wednesday show the overall PC market declined 13.9 percent year over year in the first quarter of 2013, the worst single-quarter slip on record.
Update: This article now includes numbers from Gartner, which were also published today. Interestingly, the firm's estimates conflict with IDC's preliminaries, especially regarding Apple's shipments, which Gartner found to have grown during the first quarter.
According to data from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, the nearly 14 percent fall is almost twice what was expected for the sector. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of declines.
The U.S. saw 14.2 million combined shipments as the PC market continued to free-fall in quarter one, declining 12.7 percent year-to-year on . The contraction represents a 18.3 percent sequential drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. Total shipments reached 2006 levels, making the first three months of 2013 the tenth straight quarter of year-on-year declines, not counting a brief reprieve in the third quarter of 2011 that saw less than 2 percent growth.
Preliminary estimates had Apple at 1.4 million units shipped, netting the company 10 percent of the U.S. market in the first quarter, a 7.5 percent drop from the same period in 2012. The performance allowed Apple to hold on to third place behind HP and Dell. While the Cupertino company performed slightly better than other OEMs in the U.S., the company was a victim of steep competition from its own iPad, IDC said.
The two front runners were hit hardest with massive U.S. shipment contractions of 22.9 percent for HP and 14.4 percent for Dell. Number one HP managed to keep its position on over 3.5 million units shipped, but Dell closed the gap with just over 3 million shipments. Worldwide, HP suffered 23.7 percent negative growth year over year due to internal restructuring.
Following the top three were Toshiba and Lenovo, the latter being the only manufacturer to post positive growth in the U.S. during the three-month period, saw decent gains of 13 percent. Asia/Pacific shipments for the company declined, however, leveling out the firm's overall growth. HP and Lenovo were neck and neck for worldwide shipments, separated by less than 300,000 units.
U.S. shipments in thousands of units. | Source: IDC
Interestingly, the launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 didn't help shipments, and according to IDC, actually kneecapped the segment.
"At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. "While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market."
O'Donnell referenced the poor adoption rate of the newest Windows operating system, which contributed to significant shipment drops across all regions compared to the same quarter in 2012. The lackluster reception of Windows 8 was not fully to blame for the decline, however, as traditional barriers of price and supply held back manufacturer attempts to revitalize the sector with "Ultrabooks" and other innovations. The efforts appear to be largely unsuccessful, with consumers finding the upgrades too clunky or too costly to warrant a purchase.
While IDC estimated Apple's growth to have atrophied 7.5 percent year to year, Gartner noted in its report that the company actually saw positive U.S. growth of 7.4 percent. By comparison, Gartner estimated that Apple shipped over 1.65 million Macs for the quarter, a 230,000 unit disparity from IDC's findings.
U.S. shipments in thousands of units. | Source: Gartner
Interestingly, the firm's estimates relating to the other top-five vendors are similar to IDC's, including the overall rankings for the companies. The exact numbers, however, were somewhat different. For example, as noted above, HP and Lenovo were in almost tied for the top position worldwide, but Gartner had the U.S. company outperforming by about 20,000 units compared to IDC's nearly 300,000 units.
Update: This article now includes numbers from Gartner, which were also published today. Interestingly, the firm's estimates conflict with IDC's preliminaries, especially regarding Apple's shipments, which Gartner found to have grown during the first quarter.
According to data from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, the nearly 14 percent fall is almost twice what was expected for the sector. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of declines.
The U.S. saw 14.2 million combined shipments as the PC market continued to free-fall in quarter one, declining 12.7 percent year-to-year on . The contraction represents a 18.3 percent sequential drop compared to the fourth quarter of 2012. Total shipments reached 2006 levels, making the first three months of 2013 the tenth straight quarter of year-on-year declines, not counting a brief reprieve in the third quarter of 2011 that saw less than 2 percent growth.
Preliminary estimates had Apple at 1.4 million units shipped, netting the company 10 percent of the U.S. market in the first quarter, a 7.5 percent drop from the same period in 2012. The performance allowed Apple to hold on to third place behind HP and Dell. While the Cupertino company performed slightly better than other OEMs in the U.S., the company was a victim of steep competition from its own iPad, IDC said.
The two front runners were hit hardest with massive U.S. shipment contractions of 22.9 percent for HP and 14.4 percent for Dell. Number one HP managed to keep its position on over 3.5 million units shipped, but Dell closed the gap with just over 3 million shipments. Worldwide, HP suffered 23.7 percent negative growth year over year due to internal restructuring.
Following the top three were Toshiba and Lenovo, the latter being the only manufacturer to post positive growth in the U.S. during the three-month period, saw decent gains of 13 percent. Asia/Pacific shipments for the company declined, however, leveling out the firm's overall growth. HP and Lenovo were neck and neck for worldwide shipments, separated by less than 300,000 units.
U.S. shipments in thousands of units. | Source: IDC
Interestingly, the launch of Microsoft's Windows 8 didn't help shipments, and according to IDC, actually kneecapped the segment.
"At this point, unfortunately, it seems clear that the Windows 8 launch not only failed to provide a positive boost to the PC market, but appears to have slowed the market," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC Program Vice President, Clients and Displays. "While some consumers appreciate the new form factors and touch capabilities of Windows 8, the radical changes to the UI, removal of the familiar Start button, and the costs associated with touch have made PCs a less attractive alternative to dedicated tablets and other competitive devices. Microsoft will have to make some very tough decisions moving forward if it wants to help reinvigorate the PC market."
O'Donnell referenced the poor adoption rate of the newest Windows operating system, which contributed to significant shipment drops across all regions compared to the same quarter in 2012. The lackluster reception of Windows 8 was not fully to blame for the decline, however, as traditional barriers of price and supply held back manufacturer attempts to revitalize the sector with "Ultrabooks" and other innovations. The efforts appear to be largely unsuccessful, with consumers finding the upgrades too clunky or too costly to warrant a purchase.
Gartner Estimates
Gartner has also issued their own PC shipment estimates for the first quarter of 2013, and while the numbers are mostly in line with IDC, the firm has grossly different data for AppleWhile IDC estimated Apple's growth to have atrophied 7.5 percent year to year, Gartner noted in its report that the company actually saw positive U.S. growth of 7.4 percent. By comparison, Gartner estimated that Apple shipped over 1.65 million Macs for the quarter, a 230,000 unit disparity from IDC's findings.
U.S. shipments in thousands of units. | Source: Gartner
Interestingly, the firm's estimates relating to the other top-five vendors are similar to IDC's, including the overall rankings for the companies. The exact numbers, however, were somewhat different. For example, as noted above, HP and Lenovo were in almost tied for the top position worldwide, but Gartner had the U.S. company outperforming by about 20,000 units compared to IDC's nearly 300,000 units.
Comments
Perhaps Moore's law of speed doubling has finally surpassed people's need for faster computers. Even a five year old computer is plenty fast enough for many consumers. Plus, there is no compelling reason for upgrading to anything beyond XP on Windows and even many Mac users are content with SL. Then of course there is the iPad factor.
Economic conditions aren't helping either.
Another takeaway is that it shows Apple increasing its marketshare to double digits. Perhaps not significant by itself but when you consider that around 5% Apple had over 90% of the $1000 and up market and was taking 1/3rd of the market's profits. Those ratios are likely higher now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pendergast
It's a good thing Apple releases their internal information to the IDC so we know we can trust their figures.
He he!
Which is it please? Is Apple doing well or crashing?
Remember Q1 for Apple is when they didn't have the iMac for sale so that's about 1.2m units worldwide. Apple reports their worldwide figures here:
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/01/23Apple-Reports-Record-Results.html
With that factored in, Apple would probably show a slight growth over last year. The report coming in a couple of weeks will be more reliable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Assuming these estimates are accurate it's hard to argue that we're not in a Post-PC era.
...
And the general foolishness of a report about PC sales that doesn't include tablets.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Assuming these estimates are accurate it's hard to argue that we're not in a Post-PC era.
As long as it doesn't turn into a post-Ballmer era, Apple will continue to have no real competition going forward. Apple is great, but having monkey boy at the helm of the good ship Microsoft makes it even better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SolipsismX
Another takeaway is that it shows Apple increasing its marketshare to double digits. Perhaps not significant by itself but when you consider that around 5% Apple had over 90% of the $1000 and up market and was taking 1/3rd of the market's profits. Those ratios are likely higher now.
I agree. It does make my head spin to see the good old names of HP and Dell floundering on the rocks. How the once strong have lost their shine while Apple has surged is dumbfounding!
1274-1127=147
I am recovering from the flu so excuse me if I am wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikeoco
Lenovo's numbers are down. Missing a minus sign somewhere?
1274-1127=147
I am recovering from the flu so excuse me if I am wrong.
1127 is under the 1Q12 column. That number relates to the prior year.
As a prior poster noted, an iMac that's a few years old is plenty fast. What's really going to spike sales is when Apple converts their entire laptop and iMac lines to retina displays. When they do, even us nerds who have been sitting on the fence will upgrade.
We all know it's coming. That will be the one killer feature that will compel many to lay out their credit cards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin
Remember Q1 for Apple is when they didn't have the iMac for sale so that's about 1.2m units worldwide. Apple reports their worldwide figures here:
http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2013/01/23Apple-Reports-Record-Results.html
With that factored in, Apple would probably show a slight growth over last year. The report coming in a couple of weeks will be more reliable.
Apple's Q1 is Oct-Dec, IDC is talking about Jan-Mar (what Apple calls Q2 and hasn't reported yet). These are estimates.
What's so interesting about it? IDC has been far more pessimistic in their projections for Apple than Gartner for years.
Gartner has, however, been more accurate.
http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/2013/01/idc-semiconductor-revenues-will-grow-in-2013.html
IDC is projecting under the delusion that consumers are embracing the cloud and all they need is higher speed internet connectivity, embedded space gadgets and the cloud.
Apple will once again come along and show how their idea of the cloud will be a local/remote collaborative environment with the home having their own iCloud for the Mac Ecosystem and the iCloud global data centers for remote cloud which can also tie into the home icloud via a ssh connection and WebDAV.
People are investing in their streaming libraries of content purchased and they don't have the bandwidth to offload it to the global cloud and leave it hanging in data centers.
Corporations want a local/remote relationship, not an either/or relationship.
Apple will lead and everyone else will be a me too.
Well, AAPL will probably be hammered tomorrow, because...
Well, just because. It's a computer company, isn't it?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mstone
Perhaps Moore's law of speed doubling has finally surpassed people's need for faster computers. Even a five year old computer is plenty fast enough for many consumers. Plus, there is no compelling reason for upgrading to anything beyond XP on Windows and even many Mac users are content with SL. Then of course there is the iPad factor.
Economic conditions aren't helping either.
A couple years ago, I would have been onboard with you about WindowsXP. Windows7 is now my standard. I keep WinXP on a virtual machine simply for those archaic apps that can't go beyond that.
I can't ever fathom going back to XP. Windows7 is by far the best one to use. Windows 8 is the new Vista. It's nowhere near ready for enterprise use.
Aww crap, this just makes my head hurt.
Everything is just anybody's guess. Leave it at that.
(I guess?)
Frankly I'm still predicting the return of the desktop machine. The fact is that for many of us the iPad is a portable computer that is good enough. That doesn't replace the need for a more traditional computing environment though which is where a decent desktop machine could shine. As iPad comes into its own it will be very interesting to see if there is an uptick in the percentage of desktop sales.