Windows 8.1, Intel's Haswell not expected to reverse sliding PC sales

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
The PC market will continue its downward spiral in spite of the debuts of Microsoft's Windows 8.1 update and Intel's latest-generation Haswell processors, a new analysis contends.

Macs


Mark Moskowitz of J.P. Morgan doesn't have high hopes for PC sales in the immediate future, he said in a research note provided to AppleInsider on Thursday. He estimates that overall PC sales will be down 8.3 percent year over year for calendar 2013.

"We are not expecting any sort of near-term rebound due to new Haswell chips or Windows 8.1," Moskowitz said. "In our view, the secular decline in PCs stands to continue due to elongating useful lives of the devices, the shift in IT dollars to tablets and smartphones, and tight budgets at both corporate and government levels."

His take comes in response to the latest quarterly estimates from IDC and Gartner, both of which showed yet another decline in PC shipments for the June period. Gartner found that global PC shipments were down 10.9 percent for the quarter, led by Acer with a 35.3 percent plummet.Analysts generally agree that the PC market will not turn around anytime soon, as consumers flock to tablets like Apple's iPad.

Apple didn't crack the top five worldwide PC vendors, but in the U.S., Gartner's numbers suggest Mac shipments were down 4.3 percent year over year, while its 1.8 million domestic shipments were good for third place. IDC, meanwhile, found that Apple's shipments dropped by just a half-percent.

Apple is likely to see a boost to Mac sales in the second half of 2013 with new MacBook Airs already available, and anticipated updates to the rest of the Mac lineup on tap. But market watchers also believe that Mac cannibalization from Apple's iPad lineup is likely to continue.

Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said in February that he's not concerned about the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales. He noted that the Windows PC market is "huge," giving Apple an even greater opportunity to earn new customers.

"The cannibalization question raises its head a lot," Cook said. "The truth is, we don't really think about it that much. Our basic belief is, if we don't cannibalize, someone else will."

Tablet cannibalization of PCs was also noted on Thursday by Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets, who cited devices like the iPad as the chief reason for declining PC shipments. Unlike Moskowitz, Daryanani expects that PC shipments will see a "modest improvement" beginning in the December quarter with Windows 8.1 and Haswell CPUs.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 20
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,789member
    [QUOTE]"In our view, the secular decline in PCs stands to continue due to elongating useful lives of the devices, the shift in IT dollars to tablets and smartphones, and tight budgets at both corporate and government levels."[/QUOTE]

    In other words, Windows 7 is still "good enough."
    7 is the new XP.
    8 is the new Vista.
  • Reply 2 of 20
    phone-ui-guyphone-ui-guy Posts: 1,019member
    "Post PC Era" just sayin....
  • Reply 3 of 20
    What Cook really means is that if cannibalization happens, it will affect the PC more than it affects the Mac.
  • Reply 4 of 20
    ifij775ifij775 Posts: 470member


    People would rather buy a tablet over a cheap wintel laptop.

  • Reply 5 of 20

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ifij775 View Post


    People would rather buy a tablet over a cheap wintel laptop.



    Agree 110% (that means I can be 10% wrong and still be a 100% right!)


     


    I really think when I buy an MBA 11" it will be the last full-fledged PC I'll ever buy. No more laptops and no more iMacs. I think in the next 2 years or so the iPad will be "powerful" enough for all my computing needs.


     


    the latest iPad mini (wifi only & iCloud/Dropbox), the latest iPhone, perhaps a Time Capsule, an ATV and cheap printer. And I'm good to go.


     


    Granted I'm not a programmer or engineer sitting in a cubicle so I don't need a desktop to get my work done.


     


    Thanks Apple! :)


     


    P.S. Hopefully I can jettison Sprint next and have an "all you can eat plan" for around $50/mo....I'm thinking Walmart.

  • Reply 6 of 20
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    Blah blah windows blah blah. In other news... I'm patiently awaitingr the new 13" rMBP this year and retina iMac hopefully next year. I'm sti buying PCs... They just happen to run OSX.
  • Reply 7 of 20
    ruel24ruel24 Posts: 432member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Phone-UI-Guy View Post



    "Post PC Era" just sayin....


     


    There will never truly be a "post PC era". The iPad cannot replace a Mac or a PC for many tasks. It's just that we've reached a point where our hardware from 5 years ago and the OS we run from 3 years ago do just fine and people don't have a need to upgrade anytime soon. Besides, a PC isn't a must-have when the economy is in the dumps, still.

  • Reply 8 of 20
    john.bjohn.b Posts: 2,740member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    "We are not expecting any sort of near-term rebound due to new Haswell chips or Windows 8.1," Moskowitz said. "In our view, the secular decline in PCs stands to continue due to elongating useful lives of the devices, the shift in IT dollars to tablets and smartphones, and tight budgets at both corporate and government levels."


     


    I don't think "secular" means what Mr. Moskowitz thinks it does.   image

  • Reply 9 of 20
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Agree 110% (that means I can be 10% wrong and still be a 100% right!)

    I really think when I buy an MBA 11" it will be the last full-fledged PC I'll ever buy. No more laptops and no more iMacs. I think in the next 2 years or so the iPad will be "powerful" enough for all my computing needs.

    the latest iPad mini (wifi only & iCloud/Dropbox), the latest iPhone, perhaps a Time Capsule, an ATV and cheap printer. And I'm good to go.

    Granted I'm not a programmer or engineer sitting in a cubicle so I don't need a desktop to get my work done.

    Thanks Apple! :)

    P.S. Hopefully I can jettison Sprint next and have an "all you can eat plan" for around $50/mo....I'm thinking Walmart.

    If you can live without a desktop or laptop, then you're probably in the minority of computer users.

    I see tablets as replacing the SECOND computer, but I can't see living without at least one in the house. Then, again, we currently have 5 computers, one tablet, and 2 smartphones for 2 people in the household, so maybe I'm biased.
  • Reply 10 of 20

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    If you can live without a desktop or laptop, then you're probably in the minority of computer users.



    I see tablets as replacing the SECOND computer, but I can't see living without at least one in the house. Then, again, we currently have 5 computers, one tablet, and 2 smartphones for 2 people in the household, so maybe I'm biased.


    Good points...Just saying in the next couple of years, the iPad may replace the traditional PC. Could have a super-thin monitor, BT keyboard, magic trackpad, attached to an iPad, wirelessly.


     


    IPad, iPhone and good to go! :)

  • Reply 11 of 20


    PCs are heavy, they have an annoying fan noise every time, their screens are not as good as iPad 4 and their external chassis is made up of compeletely cheap plastic. Under those excruciating conditions for an average user, the rise of tablets are consequently natural. However, they won't fade away like Walkmans. Some crucial software products like Ansys, Solidworks etc. are vital for the business. For an average user, we can now say that PCs will be dead soon though. 

  • Reply 12 of 20
    For business purposes I can see it happening, but for gamers, and media playing, never.
    I have a server, a mediacenter, also a mac mini, and a windows 8 tablet. I can't see myself
    moving away to just a tablet, just not going to happen.
  • Reply 13 of 20
    andy-ukandy-uk Posts: 26member


    This article doesn't mention it but some of the other reports I've read say that sales of thin-client Chromebooks also grew in the same period that full-spec PCs fell so there is a demand for a proper keyboard but at the right price. I know they're not in that space but I can't help feeling that, in the year in which many Windows PC users baulked at the Win 8/touch screen hybrid and were prepared to  bale out of the WIndows world, Apple raised the price and lowered the functionality of the MacBook Pro instead of pricing aggressively to tempt the waverers so instead of up-specing to a MacBook they are down-specing to chromebooks.

  • Reply 14 of 20
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    jragosta wrote: »
    If you can live without a desktop or laptop, then you're probably in the minority of computer users.

    I see tablets as replacing the SECOND computer, but I can't see living without at least one in the house. Then, again, we currently have 5 computers, one tablet, and 2 smartphones for 2 people in the household, so maybe I'm biased.

    LOL. Are you living in my house? Same quantities :)

    Oh, hold on - I have 6 computers, actually. ;)
  • Reply 15 of 20
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    <span style="line-height:1.231;">PCs are heavy, they have an annoying fan noise every time, their screens are not as good as iPad 4 and their external chassis is made up of compeletely cheap plastic. </span>
    <span style="line-height:1.231;">Under those excruciating conditions for an average user, the rise of tablets are consequently natural. </span>
    <span style="line-height:1.231;">However, they won't fade away like Walkmans. Some crucial software products like Ansys, Solidworks etc. are vital for the business. For an average user, we can now say that PCs will be dead soon though. </span>

    Number of premium laptops and ultrabooks available these days, made of aluminium, magnesium and carbon fibre. Of course if you are looking at budget offerings, you will still be getting mostly plastic, but even there you will find more "premium" materials these days.

    Desktops are mostly metal.
  • Reply 16 of 20
    nikon133nikon133 Posts: 2,600member
    For business purposes I can see it happening, but for gamers, and media playing, never.
    I have a server, a mediacenter, also a mac mini, and a windows 8 tablet. I can't see myself
    moving away to just a tablet, just not going to happen.

    True. But... I moved my mom from PC to iPad, and she is happy as. She never managed to fully bend her mind around using a PC - any pop-up message (even benign ones like "Your AV has updated to latest definitions") would make her nervous.

    Now she is surfing web, checking emails, Skyping and playing Solitaire HD on her iPad, and she can carry it around when she travels. She couldn't be happier. And she doesn't need anything else from her "computer".

    That being said, she is 72, and computers emerged too late for her. Like you, I have multiple computers and only one tablet in household, and cannot imagine tablets replacing my computers in their current roles. Even when I am in my '70.
  • Reply 17 of 20

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by nickimsonik View Post


     For an average user, we can now say that PCs will be dead soon though. 



     


    When it comes to my missus, this has already happened... her Compaq laptop became a latest-gen iPad, and she's been tickled pink with it ever since (esp. once I scrounged up a wireless printing app for her.) Anything heavy-lifting wise (storage space, etc) I have a home server for, that she sees as just another website.


     


    On my end, I still crave the CPU love - my little 3D/CG hobby demands serious horsepower (and serious RAM, serious local storage...) and as much screen real-estate that I can lay eyes on and still remain perfectly mobile... hence the 15" MBP.


     


    That said, I can see the PC (or at least laptops) evolving a bit - I already detest having to use a bog-standard mouse for some things at work, finding myself unconsciously swiping trackpads with multiple fingers, only to grunt in disgust as the Windows 7 laptop doesn't understand it (now the MBA which I'm migrating to? mega-sweet...)


     


    So yeah - I don't see the laptop/desktop form factor dying off anytime soon for me. For Joe Sixpack however? Hell, even the business travelers whip out iPads at airports these days.

  • Reply 18 of 20
    s.metcalfs.metcalf Posts: 913member
    nikon133 wrote: »
    LOL. Are you living in my house? Same quantities :)

    Oh, hold on - I have 6 computers, actually. ;)

    Yikes! So much maintenance!
  • Reply 19 of 20
    Sockrolid is right windows 7 is not only good enough but also the last wave of PCs are powerful enough to last a few upgrade cycles. A lot of big companies have recently upgraded from XP to Windows 7
  • Reply 20 of 20
    Windows and and intel haswell both are designed for more of tablets (and laptops) and just work with desktops.
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